I don't see the Singers ever buying a 30,000t LHD.
Where it is possible the South Africans might. South Africa is a medium sized nation that is fairly poor with a tiny defence budget. The Singapore is a small nation with a large defence budget but its still limited. But still a small nation. Like stereotypes and many forms of classifications, the real world aint that simple...
Dear StingrayOZ, while I agree that Singapore will not buy a 30,000t LHD, I also agree with KiwiBob that your classification is problematic. Please note that I'm not trying to make a nationalistic argument - on the importance of Singapore's navy (rather I'm trying to provide another point of view on other factors to be considered on your classification).
Let me explain. While Singapore and South Africa both sit at key sea trade routes, the profile of each navy and their respective functions are very different.
IMHO, the South African surface fleet (compared to Singapore) faces no immediate naval competitors in Africa, with a much larger shoreline to defend. As such, she needs to invest in more OPVs rather than more expensive frigates. South Africa also has a significant submarine population, which means that she can engage in sea denial against regional powers (eg. like India and China).
Singapore on the other hand needs to invest in a very capable surface fleet. For surface warfare, Singapore has harpoon armed F-15s, F-16s and MPAs. The Aster/Harpoon armed Formidable Class frigates (with seahawks for ASW), and submarines (more geared towards playing the role of hunter killers) reflect our role as a maritime protector - to keep SLOCs open. Further, the focus on 4 LPDs (rather than 1 or 2 bigger ones) reflects our concern to bring back equipment from a larger variety of overseas bases at the same time.
The Singapore navy operates in a more difficult regional threat environment (with a stronger class of regional competitors/friends) - hence I expect the Singapore navy to only grow bigger at the same rate - because the focus is not developing a sea denial capacity - rather the focus is to keep SLOCs open in partnership with US, Australia and Malaysia (even though Malaysians tend to think of us as a regional competitor).
If the classification was on "potential from growth", then you may need to consider including Malaysia and Thailand in the same category as South Africa - which then raises the question does the classification make sense?
Let me know your thoughts.
Further more, Singapore expects that it would be of interest to certain other powers to assist in our attempts to keep SLOCs open. If the SLOCs are affected, the interest of Australia, China, Korea, Japan and the US would all be adversely affected.
Btw, thanks Red for the PM.