downunderblue
Active Member
We're getting increasingly closer to the 'Davidson window' of 2027. Our region is getting increasing more and more dangerous and the lack of government response is worrying.
This all comes relevant if you believe the 2027 is realistic. Under a Biden Presidency we had some certainty over a US response to Taiwan, which for me lowered the 2027 risk, but Trump I am not so sure. From an AU perspective I think we need to give some consideration and risk management planning on what happens if the US doesn't come to Taiwan's aid and becomes more isolationist (as the Peace President). I see disaster and eventual subjication to China where our way of life is seriously affected.
2027 is potentially a one in a lifetime opportunity for Xi, if he can mount a push on Taiwan not exposing the US. The likelihood of an military embargo scenario increases.
Our whole strategic focus is creating sufficient unified deterrent to disuade Xi from going to war. I fear that Trump's flexibility here completely undermined that deterrent strategy (as what deterrent is there if the US doesn't participate).
I used to do Intell work and found producing product at the time of considerable impact and change was very hard, as they pace of change was both overwhelming as well as produced more of a fearful reactionary analysis. You need cool minds for that work. I have watched this all unpack and whilst I still think I have a cool mind, the likelihood of a 2027 economic/ military scenario for me has increased. This is a legacy project for the CCP and particularly XI (who is 72 this year). The window of greatest opportunity is within a Trump Presidency. 2027 is realistic and gained much greater certainty since Biden left.
If 2027 happens, does this make us at 1937 again? Last's nights budget frustrated me. You wouldn't be too worried about the ego of building a new stadium for the 2032 Olympic Games if you truly believed 2027 was possible, yet here we are.
Trump is unpredictable and regionally both Japan and Australia need certainty. If I was the PM I would completely ignore what all the administration officials says and pin Trump down. Organise a 1-1 with Ishiba, to plan a serious and urgent trilateral with Trump. Words are cheap and we need to provide certainty (likely public, something we can hold him to and not a Kiribilli agreement) that the US will intervene to any act of coercion or force against Taiwan, or if he can't/ wont alternatively get him to provide assistance to develop nuclear programs for both Japan and us. If he won't back us, then he needs to help us materially to stand on our own. If neither is available we need to secretly move away from the US and sit down with Japan about how we can help secure ourselves.
I don't see an isolationist stance helping the US at all. Once Taiwan is taken then the PLA moves outside first island chain containment and will be sailing CV TF groups off Pearl and San Diego etc, I don't know if Trump is aware of it (logically he could follow the economic issues) but if they don't intervene, their own continental security will be affected and undermined. Hopefully he will see the point as he does seem to listen (particularly to strength).
Eitherway, since January the risk of 2027 becoming a reality has increased significantly, and all our leaders are worried about are being elected through handouts and talk of future prosperity, Can they explain what sort of prosperity would exist if we are in a position of continual coercion by the CCP? Our sovereignty would be massively affected and we would end up completely submissive and for me, lost. So much for the lucky country.
This all comes relevant if you believe the 2027 is realistic. Under a Biden Presidency we had some certainty over a US response to Taiwan, which for me lowered the 2027 risk, but Trump I am not so sure. From an AU perspective I think we need to give some consideration and risk management planning on what happens if the US doesn't come to Taiwan's aid and becomes more isolationist (as the Peace President). I see disaster and eventual subjication to China where our way of life is seriously affected.
2027 is potentially a one in a lifetime opportunity for Xi, if he can mount a push on Taiwan not exposing the US. The likelihood of an military embargo scenario increases.
Our whole strategic focus is creating sufficient unified deterrent to disuade Xi from going to war. I fear that Trump's flexibility here completely undermined that deterrent strategy (as what deterrent is there if the US doesn't participate).
I used to do Intell work and found producing product at the time of considerable impact and change was very hard, as they pace of change was both overwhelming as well as produced more of a fearful reactionary analysis. You need cool minds for that work. I have watched this all unpack and whilst I still think I have a cool mind, the likelihood of a 2027 economic/ military scenario for me has increased. This is a legacy project for the CCP and particularly XI (who is 72 this year). The window of greatest opportunity is within a Trump Presidency. 2027 is realistic and gained much greater certainty since Biden left.
If 2027 happens, does this make us at 1937 again? Last's nights budget frustrated me. You wouldn't be too worried about the ego of building a new stadium for the 2032 Olympic Games if you truly believed 2027 was possible, yet here we are.
Trump is unpredictable and regionally both Japan and Australia need certainty. If I was the PM I would completely ignore what all the administration officials says and pin Trump down. Organise a 1-1 with Ishiba, to plan a serious and urgent trilateral with Trump. Words are cheap and we need to provide certainty (likely public, something we can hold him to and not a Kiribilli agreement) that the US will intervene to any act of coercion or force against Taiwan, or if he can't/ wont alternatively get him to provide assistance to develop nuclear programs for both Japan and us. If he won't back us, then he needs to help us materially to stand on our own. If neither is available we need to secretly move away from the US and sit down with Japan about how we can help secure ourselves.
I don't see an isolationist stance helping the US at all. Once Taiwan is taken then the PLA moves outside first island chain containment and will be sailing CV TF groups off Pearl and San Diego etc, I don't know if Trump is aware of it (logically he could follow the economic issues) but if they don't intervene, their own continental security will be affected and undermined. Hopefully he will see the point as he does seem to listen (particularly to strength).
Eitherway, since January the risk of 2027 becoming a reality has increased significantly, and all our leaders are worried about are being elected through handouts and talk of future prosperity, Can they explain what sort of prosperity would exist if we are in a position of continual coercion by the CCP? Our sovereignty would be massively affected and we would end up completely submissive and for me, lost. So much for the lucky country.
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