ADF General discussion thread

downunderblue

Active Member
And now is it delivery systems or geo political issues
It is ADF General Discussion and clearly involves, will/may impact the ADF? It's a pretty broad category and does involve current/ future capability and strategy. I've seen longer bows drawn IMO, but that's just my 2 cents.
 

downunderblue

Active Member
An unofficial, and very theoretical study I was peripherally involved in many years ago suggested Aust could develop U238 based bombs in about 6 months from the go, with sufficient will and resources - but that delivery systems would be much more problematical.
Excluding any technical or industrial limitations, I couldn't at all see how CoA could keep it quiet during development. No one needs any inspections or regional scorn associated with accidental disclosure and that could happen so easily with the loose lips of a drunk staffer in a Kingston night club or the prying questions of a Greens Senator in Senate Estimates.

It's almost like we would need to acquire it magically (maybe as a gift), repeating what allegedly happened to a eastern Mediterranean state allegedly in the late 50s +++. Maybe Boris (not Yeltsin) can help??!
 

SammyC

Well-Known Member
Excluding any technical or industrial limitations, I couldn't at all see how CoA could keep it quiet during development. No one needs any inspections or regional scorn associated with accidental disclosure and that could happen so easily with the loose lips of a drunk staffer in a Kingston night club or the prying questions of a Greens Senator in Senate Estimates.

It's almost like we would need to acquire it magically (maybe as a gift), repeating what allegedly happened to a eastern Mediterranean state allegedly in the late 50s +++. Maybe Boris (not Yeltsin) can help??!
I don't think such an activity would need to be kept quiet. Just like with the SSNs, it is perhaps more useful as a public strategy. We would have more internal rather than external dissent with a nuclear weapons procurement.

In regards to obtaining warheads, I would have thought teaming again with the UK, who are almost certainly going to need to restart their nuclear weapon production line in the very near future to prepare for the US pulling out of Europe. They are going to be desperately looking for financial partners to underwrite the expense, and we have fat check books.

Delivery systems would be more difficult. The US owns all the Tridents, and the UK doesn't have an air launched nuclear capable missile to buy as a package. The French ASMP is relatively short ranged and is very specifically matched to French aircraft.

Perhaps the US would provide a parting gift of a bunch of B61 missiles for use with our F35s. Trump would likely sell them for a good price if we asked nicely. It could be a useful tactical weapon to use on an advancing force, but not much else. It's not like an F35 could fly over Beijing.

P.S. in case anybody gets the wrong idea, the above is a hypothetical spit ball in the unlikely event the US removes its nuclear umbrella service across SE Asia. It's a low probability, but one we unfortunately need to start thinking about.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
I believe the F-11 aircraft were to be the delivery aircraft of such ,I think there were deals done
Excluding any technical or industrial limitations, I couldn't at all see how CoA could keep it quiet during development. No one needs any inspections or regional scorn associated with accidental disclosure and that could happen so easily with the loose lips of a drunk staffer in a Kingston night club or the prying questions of a Greens Senator in Senate Estimates.

It's almost like we would need to acquire it magically (maybe as a gift), repeating what allegedly happened to a eastern Mediterranean state allegedly in the late 50s +++. Maybe Boris (not Yeltsin) can help??!
This was done prior to independent parties coming along there was research into w.m.d we dont need to go into specifics
 

downunderblue

Active Member
I don't think such an activity would need to be kept quiet.

....

P.S. in case anybody gets the wrong idea, the above is a hypothetical spit ball in the unlikely event the US removes its nuclear umbrella service across SE Asia. It's a low probability, but one we unfortunately need to start thinking about.
Not just quiet, invisible maybe. If the US wont guarantee our security and we publicly announce we are developing nuclear weapons, expect to be immediately blockaded by the PLA-N at a minimum, with strikes on our facilities to follow. We'd be smashed and lost.

If that (now imaginary) cat gets out of bag the regional bully will yank our chain, big time. Secrecy would be paramount until the capability is 100% sufficient to guarantee our future sovereignty. Only then would we be prickly enough to be leave alone, whilst the CCP focuses on an easier target.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Not just quiet, invisible maybe. If the US wont guarantee our security and we publicly announce we are developing nuclear weapons, expect to be immediately blockaded by the PLA-N at a minimum, with strikes on our facilities to follow. We'd be smashed and lost.

If that (now imaginary) cat gets out of bag the regional bully will yank our chain, big time. Secrecy would be paramount until the capability is 100% sufficient to guarantee our future sovereignty. Only then would we be prickly enough to be leave alone, whilst the CCP focuses on an easier target.
Not likely IMO as Japan and SKorea will be first to develop WMD and I really can't see China going to war with them over their legitimate concerns over NK developing a SSBN. If China wants to limit WMD in the region, curb fat-boy's BS!
 
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