Its speculative but there are some reasons about why we would go with a US radar system on the Hobarts.
1 - Size - The Hobarts are more limited than the Hunters on things like space, power, cooling. While we could reconfigure for a smaller mast, thats more money, development etc for a total of 3 ships. How much do you want to cut up existing ships to try and back fit something that is a challenging fit. AN/SPY-6 could offer closer to a drop in solution and closer fitout to US Burkes.
There is a mini SPY-6 designed to back fit into flight II ships based around 24 panels.
The AN/SPY-6(V)1 Air and Missile Defense Radar (AMDR) is the Navy's next generation radar system that will address Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) and Air Defense (AD) capability gaps identified in
www.navy.mil
2 - Integration - Particularly around ballistic missile capability. BMD is very hard. BMD tests are very expensive. Integrating a new radar setup, and testing and proving it is cutting edge and expensive. Hobarts if they were to become BMD platforms, would require multiple tests with SM-2, SM-6 and SM-3. BMD you at the cutting edge of what is possible, so using any other radar may come up against issues of latency, bottlenecks etc, from unexpected things like software abstraction layers, translation/conversion processing to feed into existing algorithms, and to fix that may require huge efforts. More than one BMD system/version has become a technical dead end because its fundamentals were not scalable. While ceafar and other sensors might be able to feed into that loop, to assist and improve it would be a huge leap to be able to do it end to end on something like SM-3. Proving it also, hard and expensive, and time consuming. Future weapons and integration are also in the same boat. It could be useful to have the Hobarts on a platform that could take updates quickly.
This isn't to say CEAFAR can't do BMD. Its just about BMD on the Hobarts, right now, particularly with something high end joint BMD, where 5-6 aegis ships, and other sensors are all integrated and sharing radar data to make a hit. The USN is probably 5-7 years ahead of AU putting to sea a fully fledge Aegis ship with SPY-6 over AU and the hunters.
For the 3 Hobarts an out of the box off the shelf solution would be highly attractive. Lower risk, higher levels of USN compatibility. We can then also do some of the SPY-6/Ceafar compatibility stuff with our own navy, as we would have both types.
That also said, not a whole lot of official info on the Hobart upgrades is decided or public. After initially hearing that 9LV consoles and Ceafar2 would would be back ported to the Hobarts, things have gone quiet.
BMD is also something that goes beyond RAN. You should really be talking space assets, JORN for early warning, E7 integration, forward deployed radars etc.