John Fedup
The Bunker Group
I think the additional exception for working spouses when the partner is deployed would be a big inducement.
Trump wants 5% Nato defence spending target, Europe told
Trump apparently wants NATO nations to spend 5% of GDP on Defence, but seems to be signaling that he would be willing to compromise on 3.5% (broadly in line with the US).
I presume that the quid pro quo of AUKUS continuing would be a similar ask of Australia. Hard to see why we or Japan would be treated any differently.
At current spending levels this would be an extra $37bn p.a.
Putting aside the political and fiscal difficulties this would create (which are soluble), and whether we would actually increase our spending or risk Trump’s wrath, that is a LOT of additional kit. Hard to see what new capabilities would be acquired, probably just more of what is already planned.
Good time to be an arms manufacturer.
Trump apparently wants NATO nations to spend 5% of GDP on Defence, but seems to be signaling that he would be willing to compromise on 3.5% (broadly in line with the US).
I presume that the quid pro quo of AUKUS continuing would be a similar ask of Australia. Hard to see why we or Japan would be treated any differently.
At current spending levels this would be an extra $37bn p.a.
Putting aside the political and fiscal difficulties this would create (which are soluble), and whether we would actually increase our spending or risk Trump’s wrath, that is a LOT of additional kit. Hard to see what new capabilities would be acquired, probably just more of what is already planned.
Good time to be an arms manufacturer.
Interesting question without an answer until he takes up office.
Mr Trump has promised many things.
Many to be actioned on his first day of office!!!!!
He’s a salesman and a businessman.
While I’m absolutely no fan of the bloke, the reality is he has the presidential gig for the next four years and that will have consequences globally and no doubt have impact locally.
Re the ADF it’s to scary to predict other than to suggest his presidency will look very different compared to the last time he was in office.
He will certainly feel emboldened and suggest somewhat dictatorial in “diplomacy “!
Add to the mix AUKUS which was not around in his last term and we may find ourselves in quite a subservient position.
One of my concerns for AUKAS was having a balanced ADF
If we are compelled to spend addition coin I would guess that’s where the pressure would be.
Virginia Class submarine production.
Roll on 2025 and buckle in.
The journey begins
Regards S
I think we get to a massive 2.3% GDP by 2033 at the height of the SSN and GPF program under the current forecast, so even 3.5% is a herculean increase. You can't add the best part of $40b per annum without serious impact on taxation, or other expenditure (hopsitals, schools etc).
Note, I suspect Trump will not only demand an increase in military expenditure, he will also want it spent on American systems. European providers are going to get pushed out of SE Asia with him. Local production might also be under threat. His single theme has been for tributary nations (which we are) to pay for American protection and spend money with American companies.
There are some easy gives that could head off some of the focus. We could speed up US missile procurements. Either US manufactured or US factories in Australia. We still haven't made a deal with Raytheon. Nor have we announced a rocket motor manufacturer. More HIMARS looks like a nice target (sorry Strikemaster, you might loose out on politics).
We could also bring forward/expand some of our base upgrades as well, particularly the ones the Americans are interested in having a slice of (FBW, Henderson and Darwin).
This is all stuff we need and is part of our strategy anyway, so wouldn't go to waste or be misaligned with the current stratey. It can be forward ordered for delivery late this decade or early next decade, so doesn't impact short term expenditure. All of it would be visible deals with American companies and American jobs.
Stampede, I concur that we might need to make a larger commitment to the Virginia program in order to stay in it. I would not be suprised if we need to tip in a larger industry investment (another couple of billion), and even agree to five, rather than three, hulls.
More problematic would be coersion to buy additional non planned major hardware. I can see, for instance, a push to commit to additional American combat/support aircraft/helicopters and satellites.
Worse would be if Trump pushes for us to pay to have American troops, ships and SSNs located in Australia. This is what he is talking about with both Japan and S Korea for instance.
Don't be suprised if he starts demanding we pay a couple of billion per annum in protection money. Call it Mafia racketeering on a grand scale.
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Do people think DT will be around in 4 years? 3+ assassination attempts/plots and that was just during the reelection campaign.
If Dutton becomes PM, I think he’ll do anything Trump says.
If Labor remain, I can see most of the new equipment over the next 4 years being produced in Australia. Ghost Shark, Speartooth, Bluebottle, Strikemaster etc etc and avoiding major purchases of equipment from the U.S apart from what has already been signed.
If Dutton becomes PM, I think he’ll do anything Trump says.
If Labor remain, I can see most of the new equipment over the next 4 years being produced in Australia. Ghost Shark, Speartooth, Bluebottle, Strikemaster etc etc and avoiding major purchases of equipment from the U.S apart from what has already been signed.
Takao
The Bunker Group
Ignoring the hilariousness that is going to 5% of GDP* - where the hell are the people coming from to do the extra 2.5 - 2.8%? And where the hell are we spending it? Production lines won't magically go faster, there isn't more kit or concrete sitting there ready to go.
It's such a ignorant concept that it's hard to actually accept as real.
* What are we cutting? What social security, or education, or health thing are we cutting? Noting that the PRC slowdown of imports has blown a significant hole in the Government income - good luck justifying an increase to Defence with either side of politics.
It's such a ignorant concept that it's hard to actually accept as real.
Or we could use the (ha ha ha) extra 2.5% - 2.8% and actually fund the ADF. Instead of the all-consuming SSNs.
* What are we cutting? What social security, or education, or health thing are we cutting? Noting that the PRC slowdown of imports has blown a significant hole in the Government income - good luck justifying an increase to Defence with either side of politics.
Somewhat off topic, but this is not that hard to solve.
1) Means test everything, and include the primary family residence in the assets test.
2) Scrap the CGT discount.
3) Reset the Resources Rent Tax so we get a sensible share of gas and other receipts.
4) Crack down on doctors rorting Medicare.
5) Crack down on everyone rorting the NDIS.
6) Introduce a modest inheritance tax.
Each of these is worth a minimum of $10bn p.a.
Easy. Budget fixed if we want to.
Easy solution, Vice President Trump will require all allies to buy President Musks robots with their increased defence budgets.
Don't forget to add the cost of increased security and pitch fork proof body armour for any politician pushing policies like that.
You left out taxing billionaires, and profit shifting multinationals. Interesting you list Medicare and NDIS as rorts while not mentioning grifting super rich.
While the super rich dtand out as "grifters" there are I think about 105 Australian billionaires.
The health budget for Australians is around $250 billion, or about $10k per Aussie.
NDIS is @$44 billion for 2024.
HEAVILY taxing the super rich would bring in what? $10bn?
The health budget for Australians is around $250 billion, or about $10k per Aussie.
NDIS is @$44 billion for 2024.
HEAVILY taxing the super rich would bring in what? $10bn?
Agreed!
I’m all for laying the boot into Rineheart et al.
And the gas extractors are only the most egregious example of multinationals taking us for a ride but many others to be cracked down on.
Wouldn’t hurt for us to get stuck into the absolutely horrendous levels of dirty money washing through the economy as well. We are seen (and are) a very soft target globally.
There would absolutely be lots of whingeing but my point is that we could comfortably pay for this if we want to.
To be honest I find myself wondering whether we have in fact seriously underestimated the cost of acquiring and operating the truck loads of equipment we have planned over the next 20 or 30 years. The navy alone has signed on for 8 SSNs and 26 surface combattants. To afford all that kit I suspect we will see spending rise considerably beyond the currently planned levels. Either that or we are about to go through yet another cycle of cutbacks to some of these programs.
In any case Trump will only be around until 2028. It will be then up to whoever Elon decides to replace him with to make any major AUKUS decisions.
Certainly will be a good time to be an arms manufacturer though. And yes you better believe Elon will have his finger in that pie.
Palantir In Talks With OpenAI, Elon Musk's SpaceX: FT
The planned consortium would take on defense giants.
www.investors.com
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I suspect you’re right. If we’re lent on spend more I suspect it will be more of what is already planned, or do what we’re planning properly with the right staffing and infrastructure around it.To be honest I find myself wondering whether we have in fact seriously underestimated the cost of acquiring and operating the truck loads of equipment we have planned over the next 20 or 30 years. The navy alone has signed on for 8 SSNs and 26 surface combattants. To afford all that kit I suspect we will see spending rise considerably beyond the currently planned levels. Either that or we are about to go through yet another cycle of cutbacks to some of these programs.
In any case Trump will only be around until 2028. It will be then up to whoever Elon decides to replace him with to make any major AUKUS decisions.
Certainly will be a good time to be an arms manufacturer though. And yes you better believe Elon will have his finger in that pie.
Palantir In Talks With OpenAI, Elon Musk's SpaceX: FT
The planned consortium would take on defense giants.
Honestly the only capability I would like to see is acquire (if money was no object, which it of course is) that’s not already being acquired is the B-21. That would certainly chew up plenty of dollars in short order….
Sorry if I was a little aggressive and accusatory, NDIS is a sore point as a number of family members are on it and it has done sweet FA for them.
There is a general attitude that people on these schemes are rorting the system, as too the belief that Medicare is being rorted by doctors. In my experience many doctors are underpaid and patient care is compromised by Medicare cost and time requirements.
The truth is, most rorters have more in common with Gina than they do with the average person, let alone doctors and health providers.
The grifters go from government funded gravy train to government funded gravy train bleeding them to the detriment of those the support is intended for.
Follow the money, school halls, home insulation, the job network, health and hospital conglomerates, nursing homes, childcare centres etc. hell many of those even have the same investors and business owners.
aged care and health budget is a tad under $140billion.
at the current rate of growth in participants NDIS ( is knocking on 450k was expected to be 250k participants) is forecast to get to close to $80- 90 billion by 28/29. OT no one wants the disabled to miss services but here is a few cases in point As the why NDIS is getting out of hand.
95 year old Aunty had her bathroom done up and a ramp built by the NDIS.
The bathroom is 2.8 x 2.4 so not large. Fitted with a single sheet of glass screen, a few hand holds, really cheap toilet and vanity. $10 a metre tiles. $38k plus $3 k to remove the rubbish from the old. I have several mates who are builders who couldn’t believe it. Said it was a $8-10k job.
the ramp went up 3 steps. The NDIS builders quoted $78k and $92k. We got the job done by a local chippie with council permits for $4k. The NDIS provider would not fund it as it was below the allowed threshold for works.
My granddaughter had grommets put in here ear. She was given up to $45 k over 2 years for speech therapy when she didn’t need a cent of it. My daughter can claim up to 10 visits @ $235 each for speech therapy without receipts. The same NDIS provider in Fairfield was given a ban as they had 20 plus family members signed up for serices that could be claimed ( to a limit) without evidence
another uncle died last year after a short but serious illness ….his wheel chair $36k and car lift $28k were never used and could not be retrieved. Told to dispose of them ourselves. Go to sell and look them yo on line and the wheelchair retails fir about $5k and the lift is $4k installed.
mates dad was in palliative care. Had a long term heart issue, lung cancer and brain cancer. He was given 4 weeks to live. 2 weeks later they gave him a pacemaker which his wife later found out the Op and pacemaker cost over $200k.
mates wife is a school teacher. She has a girlfriend on NDIS due to a life long drink and drug addiction. She has career come last each morning and night to make sure she is ok and eating. She was granted a holiday to Bali 10 days airfare and accom. My mates
wife was paid to take the week off school and to go with her ….air fare, accom and $1000 a day FT travel care allowance.
Mates brother bought a house, had NDIS do 75k kitchen and bathroom Reno then sold the house for another $170k 8 months later.
Another mate in RAAF ..works in Townsville bought a NDIS 4 bed house in Toowoomba $890k…has ramps, handles, wide doors and doorways…you get the gist. He gets over $65k rent per bedroom x 3 and the 4th bedroom is for the career that stays overnight.
This is what is meant by NDIS rorts. in a lot of cases it’s not the recipients..it’s the providers and the system. I know OT but this is a very small snapshot from my own contacts and only over the past 12 months . It’s crazy.
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Spot on. It’s the providers, (mostly) not the recipients. These are systemic issues. A benefits schedule like Medicare needs to be developed and policed (as does Medicare itself, hence my other point).
Your mate in the RAAF and this house he bought, the full story is somewhat different. They are a cost saving to the budget.
Each NDIS house provides suitable, safe housing for two or more, high needs disabled individuals who would otherwise be living in nursing homes or hospitals at far greater expense.
In fact, if the government was smart, they would look at a similar model for aged care instead of nursing homes.
It provides a much higher standard of living, and a better quality of life, at a lower cost than the current alternatives.
The upgrades to people's homes let them stay in those homes instead of moving into much more expensive assisted living, nursing homes and hospitals.
Then there's the other factor, how many disabled people are able to work and support themselves, (as well as pay tax) because of supports? I actually know a few, including some, who because they have an NDIS cleaner and gardener, were able to keep working instead of being on a disability pension and rent assistance, or maybe homeless.
Those rorting the system are the exact same (often Lamborghini driving) people who rorted childcare, aged care, the job network, training providers, school halls, home insulation, solar and battery installation, etc.
Just because governments can't, ( or won't) take action against rent seeking fraudsters, doesn't mean the scheme isn't necessary or beneficial.
I am not saying it's perfect. I know a senior health professional who is an amputee, they need to confirm they are still missing a limb on a regular basis to stay on NDIS. The well fitting, well maintained prosthetic enables them to do their job.
On the other hand, how many many service providers are claiming to be doing work for clients who have never had the work done and didn't even know they were registered.
Forget rorting, there is fraud and organised crime and it's not the disabled or health professionals doing it, it's the scumbags making political donations and living millionaire lifestyles while claiming to be SMEs driving the economy.
Redlands18
Well-Known Member
Major move to boost Defence recruits
Australia has moved to allow persons from 5Eye nations to join the ADF, they must have been residents in Australia for 12 months before applying. This follows the decision to allow Kiwis to apply from 1 July.
Australia has moved to allow persons from 5Eye nations to join the ADF, they must have been residents in Australia for 12 months before applying. This follows the decision to allow Kiwis to apply from 1 July.
Whilst I get the extension to other Commonwealth realms, who are technically in a form of personal monarchical union, and whose militaries largely share traditions and configuration. However from my reading (as below) US citizens could not be an officer, without losing US citizenship.
8 U.S.C. 1481(a)(3) (INA 349(a)(3)), as amended On or after November 14, 1986.
Entering, or serving in, the armed forces of a foreign state if (A) such armed forces are engaged in hostilities against the United States; or (B) such persons serve as a commissioned or noncommissioned officer.
This amendment of the statute in 1986 eliminated the provision allowing for approval of the foreign military service by the Secretaries of State and Defense Immigration and Nationality Act Amendments of 1986, Public Law 99-653, § 18(d), 100 Statutes at Large 3658 (amending INA 349(a)(3), 8 U.S.C. § 1481(a)(3)).