ADF General discussion thread

[Redlands18]

Just to state the obvious most long term defence projects need to survive several changes of government. In Australia’s case we do have a reasonably bipartisan approach to defence matters.

That isn’t to say that there won’t be changes to future procurement programs. No doubt there will be continual budgetary pressures and unwanted governmental interference but I think most established programs will blunder along as usual.

It is also more important than ever for Australia to maintain good relations with its allies so I don’t see any major changes in our defence policy in the foreseeable future.

I could be wrong of course but I just don’t see any indication that Australia’s overall defence posture is going to change anytime soon.

The big issue right now is, 3 of the 4* biggest Defence procurement programs in history. Sea 1000, Sea 5000 and Land 400 phase 3 with a combined budget of $150B+ all sit at critical junctures right now, with major decisions due in the next 12 months.
* Other being the F-35 under Air 6000

 

[Stampede]

The big issue right now is, 3 of the 4* biggest Defence procurement programs in history. Sea 1000, Sea 5000 and Land 400 phase 3 with a combined budget of $150B+ all sit at critical junctures right now, with major decisions due in the next 12 months.
* Other being the F-35 under Air 6000

An interesting year ahead.

Sea 1000 - To little information and very few " N " options. I'd speculate that in such a complex program it may in fact be a bridge to far on many levels. .....Manufacturing / Politics / Skills / Education.
I personally doubt the RAN will get a Nuclear sub any time soon, if ever!
If we do, I further doubt it will actually be a sovereign capability.
A tough one for the new government. If they get a majority it will be their call. If not, it may become a political football.

Sea 5000 - Big ships still have a place and we need to replace the ANZAC's and eventually the Hobart's.
It will go ahead with the numbers suggested. I doubt there will be a change from the planned Australianised Type 26. More info this year

Land 400 Phase 3 - Armour still has a place and the M113 has had its day. Two contenders left in the race and one will be the winner.
What may change are the numbers built. Expect a decision this year

Air 6000 - F-35. Nothing wrong with the plane, just the evolution of the unmanned stuff and how this fits into the battle space going forward.
With our AIR budget, where do we put the money? Maybe some delay with this one pending some answers.
Luckily we are currently well placed with a modern fleet of aircraft.

Agnostic either way although I can still see a place for the " B "


Cheers S

 

[hauritz]

I have my doubts that we will be looking at another tranche of F-35. I agree there is nothing wrong with them but I have a feeling the Rhinos will serve on until the 2030 by which time we could be looking at Gen 6 technology. Also there are uncertainties in regards to projects such as the loyal wingman and just what role it will play in the future structure of the RAAF.

I am pretty sure SEA 5000 is safe enough and even though it will take a long time I think nuclear submarines will be far too important of a capability to just toss aside.

 

[ngatimozart]

I have my doubts that we will be looking at another tranche of F-35. I agree there is nothing wrong with them but I have a feeling the Rhinos will serve on until the 2030 by which time we could be looking at Gen 6 technology. Also there are uncertainties in regards to projects such as the loyal wingman and just what role it will play in the future structure of the RAAF.

I am pretty sure SEA 5000 is safe enough and even though it will take a long time I think nuclear submarines will be far too important of a capability to just toss aside.

TBH I don't think that you'll be looking at GEN 6 tech in 2030. The costs being mooted are somewhat horrendous and even the USAF may struggle to justify it to Congress.

 

[StingrayOZ]

I have my doubts that we will be looking at another tranche of F-35. I agree there is nothing wrong with them but I have a feeling the Rhinos will serve on until the 2030 by which time we could be looking at Gen 6 technology.

I think completely the opposite.

Next gen is looking further away and more expensive. Possibly even entirely outside of the next big conflict timeframe.
IMO Drone augment manned platforms, not replace them. Also costs are spiraling for western drones and "gen 6" platforms. If anything recent conflicts have shown how valuable manned air platforms can be and how heavy usage can deplete a fleet (both sides).

Blk IV of F-35 will give it a lot of the EW capabilities, but 72 + 36 is a pretty decent fast jet combo. IMO we should probably look at purchasing Blk IV and perhaps replacing the growlers. However having some decent 4.5 gen SH that can handle high intensity operations probably isn't a bad thing. Being able to have at least 1 squadron forward deployed to Japan and/or Butterworth would be significant. If expensive.

Labor did say they would look at an additional hobart build. But the hobart upgrade program is already recruiting.

 

[John Fedup]

This article speculates on what will emerge from the NGAD program. This jet will be in the 200 million dollar plus range with a production run of 100-150 jets expected to be in service for 10-15 years then will replaced with a new design rather than doing expensive upgrades. These NGAD fighters will be accompanied by less expensive unmanned jets. Doubtful NGAD fighters will be available for export and the limited production run further confirms this. Probably the best options for importing 6gen jets will be Tempest or whatever the USN comes up with.

NGAD: America's New 6th Generation Fighter Could Be Full of Surprises

Despite the possibility that the NGAD may be larger than we’ve come to expect of air superiority fighters, it’s still expected to be killer.

www.19fortyfive.com

 

[hauritz]

In my mind each generation of fighters has one overriding defining characteristic. The first gen was just the first gen. The second gen circa the Korean war and could be defined by swept wings, manoeuvrability and generally speaking the evolution of the airframe. Gen three was engine improvements with supersonic flight. Gen four was all about improvements in avionics. Gen five is stealth and Gen six will probably be the integration of AI.
According to my rather simplistic definition you could consider concepts such as loyal wingman at least one component of sixth gen technology.

 

[Sideline]

you could consider concepts such as loyal wingman at least one component of sixth gen technology.

The concept that loyal wingman is one component of sixth Gen technology is quite interesting. If you carry this thought forward a six-gen fighter would be very stealthy two seater, that is part growler, part forward UAV air controller, directing drones from close enough that there is no control lag.

Looking at the situation in Ukraine could you imagine a sixth gen plane sitting 100 km back, With 4 to 6 loyal wingman drones each with a mix of munitions, possibly disposable drones like the kind the Ukrainians are using to drop bomblets on tanks,

 

[hauritz]

Sometimes I think the concept of different generations of fighters as more of a marketing ploy than anything else. Personally I would guess that the next generation air combat capability will be a disparate network of UAVs, loitering munitions and optionally manned aircraft. AI will mean UAVs could operate independently of any controller.

Humans are notoriously bad at predicting the future. I am still waiting the see the hoverboards and flying cars predicted in "Back to the Future". As a kid I was fully expecting to be living on a Mars colony flying around with a personal Jet pack by now. Instead we are just getting glorified versions of the remote controlled aircraft my father used to build as a hobby.

 

[Takao]

Sometimes I think the concept of different generations of fighters as more of a marketing ploy than anything else. Personally I would guess that the next generation air combat capability will be a disparate network of UAVs, loitering munitions and optionally manned aircraft. AI will mean UAVs could operate independently of any controller.

Oh, they are. "Generation" is pretty useless as a force design guide. Note, according to how generations were defined, that HMAS Hobart is about 8th generation and a modern Brigade is probably about 13th generation....maybe we shouldn't waste money on 5th or 6th gen assets?

Furthermore, noting the significant internal pushback on large UAV within the RAAF, and that "6th Gen" is pretty meaningless but likely to involve AI, how much support is there for such a capability, especially with the likely price tag?

Note that there is already options for a "6th gen" capability in the IIP beyond the additional UAS that FSP20 brought in. The additional "F-35 squadron" isn't actually that, it's additional air combat capability. That opens up significant options - it could be more F/A-18E/Fs. It could be F-15EX. It could be Tomahawks. It could be some NGAD or some Ghost Bats. That additional air combat capability, assuming it survives FSP24 and FSP28, could be anything...

 

[Rock the kasbah]

Oh, they are. "Generation" is pretty useless as a force design guide. Note, according to how generations were defined, that HMAS Hobart is about 8th generation and a modern Brigade is probably about 13th generation....maybe we shouldn't waste money on 5th or 6th gen assets?

Furthermore, noting the significant internal pushback on large UAV within the RAAF, and that "6th Gen" is pretty meaningless but likely to involve AI, how much support is there for such a capability, especially with the likely price tag?

Note that there is already options for a "6th gen" capability in the IIP beyond the additional UAS that FSP20 brought in. The additional "F-35 squadron" isn't actually that, it's additional air combat capability. That opens up significant options - it could be more F/A-18E/Fs. It could be F-15EX. It could be Tomahawks. It could be some NGAD or some Ghost Bats. That additional air combat capability, assuming it survives FSP24 and FSP28, could be anything...

Mate thank you for your input
It is important to us little people out here

 

[hauritz]

Sounds like Samoa has just signed a new trade and policing deal with China.

Samoa signs deal with China with talks underway for a police training centre

The full details of the deal have yet to be publicly released. The Samoan government confirms the deal was struck after a meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Samoan Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata'afa.

www.sbs.com.au

China is now openly talking about a 10 nation deal in the South Pacific covering everything from security to fisheries. The exact extent of these arrangements is so far unknown but they seem to be happening fairly quickly.

 

[Wombat000]

Sounds like Samoa has just signed a new trade and policing deal with China.

Samoa signs deal with China with talks underway for a police training centre

The full details of the deal have yet to be publicly released. The Samoan government confirms the deal was struck after a meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Samoan Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata'afa.

www.sbs.com.au

China is now openly talking about a 10 nation deal in the South Pacific covering everything from security to fisheries. The exact extent of these arrangements is so far unknown but they seem to be happening fairly quickly.

im thinking benign defence budgets are of times past.
…..has anyone checked to see if NZ has a pulse?

 

[Stampede]

This article in the Australian Defence Magazine came out a couple of weeks ago.
An interesting read.

Who killed the Attack-class? - Australian Defence Magazine

The death of the Attack class reveals multiple efforts from within the Government to undermine its own defence programs and pin the blame on industry.

www.australiandefence.com.au

Like many of us I don't have the answers to the questions.
Some times it's hard to even have an opinion when it's difficult to know what is actually fact.

Defence procurement is a complicated business!!


Cheers S

 

[ADMk2]

This article in the Australian Defence Magazine came out a couple of weeks ago.
An interesting read.

Who killed the Attack-class? - Australian Defence Magazine

The death of the Attack class reveals multiple efforts from within the Government to undermine its own defence programs and pin the blame on industry.

www.australiandefence.com.au

Like many of us I don't have the answers to the questions.
Some times it's hard to even have an opinion when it's difficult to know what is actually fact.

Defence procurement is a complicated business!!


Cheers S

Morrison did. He was the only one at the time who could. He kicked off the SSN idea and arrange matters so it would take hold. Once the SSN plan was locked in, there was no need for the Attack Class any further.

 

[Redlands18]

New defence minister named

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has unveiled his new ministry, appointing a new lead for the defence portfolio. Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles has been named as the new minister for d

www.defenceconnect.com.au

The new Government has named its new Ministers with Defence related portfolios.
DEFMIN: Richard Marles
Defence Industry: Pat Conroy
Vet Affairs and Defence Personnel: Matt Keogh
Home Affairs and cyber security: Clare O'Neil
Assistant DEFMIN and assistant Vet Affairs: Matt Thistlethwaite
Marles is also the Deputy PM so it seems Labor are taking Defence seriously.

 

[Rock the kasbah]

Post deleted as it is not related to the ADF

@Rock the kasbah

You do not identify what questions the article on Ukraine situation identifies. I can see no connection to the ADF. You have been given a warning about other posts you have recently made. Suggest you tread very carefully.

alexsa

 

[FormerDirtDart]

Just a heads up
If you have a lazy 1/2 hour
The drive did a good wrap up of the latest Ukraine story today

Homepage

Welcome to The War Zone. We cover the air, sea, land, space & cyber domains of warfare & wrap it all up in a geopolitical bow. We take the world's most complex & opaque technological topics & convey them in a way that anyone can understand.

www.thedrive.com

The twitter footage is amazing
And brings up lots of ADF questions

Which particular article were you intending on linking to? That link leads the "The War Zone" main page.

 

[alexsa]

Post deleted as it is not related to the ADF

@Rock the kasbah

You do not identify what questions the article on Ukraine situation identifies. I can see no connection to the ADF.

You are required to justify this post by this time tomorrow or you are likely to be banned.

You have been given a warning about other posts you have recently made. Suggest you tread very carefully and respond as required.

alexsa

 

[Stampede]

I'm not sure what our AUKUS partners will make of this commentary by the former defence minister and now opposition leader Peter Dutton

'Worked against the national interest': Anger at Peter Dutton's disclosure of submarine negotiations

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton's decision to divulge sensitive discussions with the United States on acquiring nuclear-powered submarines has sparked concern that he may have jeopardised plans for a joint agreement by year's end.

www.abc.net.au

Perplexed S