ADF General discussion thread

[Stuart M]

Be careful. The Soloman Islands is an independent nation, not ours to lean on any more than China's. They have every right to choose the best deal. We have every incentive to convince them that it's not in their best interest, but sanctions are a blunt and uncertain instrument likely to do the reverse. (cv Chinese trade sanctions against *us*)

oldsig

There is a clause that allows Chinese forces to protect Chinese installations/personnel/interests. So if this thing is ratified I'd question just how long the Solomons retains its de-facto independence were the Solomons people to have a different perspective of their nations interests to that of China.

 

[Stuart M]

Link to Dr Anna Powles info on the Sino-Solomons deal

Dr Anna Powles on Twitter: "The draft security cooperation agreement between China and Solomon Islands has been linked on social media and raises a lot of questions (and concerns). (photos of agreement in this and below tweet) 1/6 https://t.co/nnpnJJQC7r" / Twitter

On the face of this I really do question the future independence of the Solomon Islands should it adopt a policy line that contradicts China's wishes, especially when the agreement provides for the "Judicial immunity" of Chinese forces.

 

[SMC]

So here is a question.....what if this leads to more social unrest in the SI and we are invited back again to help restore order?

 

[JulioCompactus]

So here is a question.....what if this leads to more social unrest in the SI and we are invited back again to help restore order?

or the PRC is invited in to restore order and we aren't?

 

[ngatimozart]

So here is a question.....what if this leads to more social unrest in the SI and we are invited back again to help restore order?

or the PRC is invited in to restore order and we aren't?

The locals like burning Chinese businesses when they get excitable and that would be the trigger point for PLA / Armed Peoples Police involvement. Apparently the CCP / PRC have already supplied fake guns to the Solomon Islands Police for training purposes. The Solomon islands is supposed to be a gun free area. The weapons arrive via a forestry ship.

 

[Wombat000]

Perhaps its about time for Australia, in conjunction with its pacific “family” partners to construct a Fwd Operating Base in the Solomons, itself?
I accept that it’s likely to turn into a bidding war of sorts, and the idea may imply the likelihood to spread to further locations in similar wider strategic zones of influence.

but, can we afford not to?
it could also be the catalyst for a more stable regional development anyway, and ironically consolidate local independence.

 

[At lakes]

Peter Dutton - Mad Potato

Hot potato! Juggle Peter Dutton for as long as you can.

peterduttonmp.com

This appeared on twitter with a comment that someone forgot to renew the Minister of Defence Peter Dutton's domain and we got the mad potato game instead. People can be very cruel??

 

[phreeky]

This appeared on twitter with a comment that someone forgot to renew the Minister of Defence Peter Dutton's domain and we got the mad potato game instead. People can be very cruel??

A good lesson in simple things like not letting a domain expire wrt cyber security/trust. And TBH, couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.

It's much worse if somebody simply mirrors the original site and plants some malware etc.

 

[MickB]

The ADF is behind schedule in a number of major projects so a lot of the currently allocated funding isn't being spent. Personally I would like to see that funding redirected to capabilities that could be bought online ASAP. Australia, and in fact the whole region's, strategic situation continues to deteriorate and we need a greater sense of urgency if we are going to address it.

Just watched utube by Hypohistericalhistory on a possible Australian A2AD network.
If you agree or not this video adds a lot of background information in an easy to understand format
Well worth the watch for non def pros.

 

[Morgo]

Big increases in Defence in tonight’s budget. 6.6% increase next year, 24% over the forward estimates going from $35bn to around $45bn.

Portfolio statements get tabled at 8.30. Will be interesting to see what all that will get spent on….

 

[Zorborg]

Big increases in Defence in tonight’s budget. 6.6% increase next year, 24% over the forward estimates going from $35bn to around $45bn.

Portfolio statements get tabled at 8.30. Will be interesting to see what all that will get spent on….

ADBR states 2021-2022 was 44.6bn increasing to 48.6bn for 2022-2023, as planned since 2016.

 

[Bob53]

Big increases in Defence in tonight’s budget. 6.6% increase next year, 24% over the forward estimates going from $35bn to around $45bn.

Portfolio statements get tabled at 8.30. Will be interesting to see what all that will get spent on….

Disappointed nothing allocated for domestic missile production in the budget this year. I thought that was a stated high priority?

 

[Bob53]

Just watched utube by Hypohistericalhistory on a possible Australian A2AD network.
If you agree or not this video adds a lot of background information in an easy to understand format
Well worth the watch for non def pros.

Here is the link. He presents a good case. Can anyone here pick holes in his suggestions?

 

[cdxbow]

Here is the link. He presents a good case. Can anyone here pick holes in his suggestions?

Good discussion of JORN at the start. I reckon it's a no brainer, the only thing to decide is which choice of missiles. It may depend on which we can build here and each ones cost. LRASM is priced about 4 million USD, the tomahawks V around 2 million USD . Certainly long range maritime strike missiles provide the best bang for buck for the ADF. Unlike new platforms they can even be deployed in time for the party, should it start in five years or so. Certainly better than spending $300 million AUD on each OPV that are as dangerous as a marshmallow. If you look through the thread, I get strong negative reactions every time I have suggested a significant land based tomahawk fleet. I'm told it's too expensive, too difficult to maintain, we lack adequate surveillance, too slow etc.

 

[ADMk2]

Good discussion of JORN at the start. I reckon it's a no brainer, the only thing to decide is which choice of missiles. It may depend on which we can build here and each ones cost. LRASM is priced about 4 million USD, the tomahawks V around 2 million USD . Certainly long range maritime strike missiles provide the best bang for buck for the ADF. Unlike new platforms they can even be deployed in time for the party, should it start in five years or so. Certainly better than spending $300 million AUD on each OPV that are as dangerous as a marshmallow. If you look through the thread, I get strong negative reactions every time I have suggested a significant land based tomahawk fleet. I'm told it's too expensive, too difficult to maintain, we lack adequate surveillance, too slow etc.

Just a quick note on Tomahawk in ADF service, interestingly the PBS just released show that Tomahawk Block IV is to be integrated onto the AWD's commencing 2022-23. Whether that will extend to Block Va/b over time is as yet unknown, but clearly the planning is for Tomahawk to provide "only" a land attack capability at present.

There is a separate 'long range anti-ship missile' project for RAN and Tomahawk Block Vb could easily be selected for that, but at present it seemingly has not...

 

[Todjaeger]

Here is the link. He presents a good case. Can anyone here pick holes in his suggestions?

I am slowly going through the clip, but I do not have great hopes TBH given the video which seemed to endorse Marcus Hellyer's proposals regarding the Arafura-class. So far I have gotten to 11:46 and already came across something which while not particularly important, is verifably incorrect. The area of Australia is NOT significantly larger than the continental United States. In fact, the contiguous or co (lower 48, i.e. not including either Alaska or Hawaii) United States has a larger area than Australia. The continental US would include Alaska, which is itself ~20% the size of Australia. Again, not a major piece of incorrect information but it was something which sounded incorrect enough for me to pause to double check and confirm the claim was wrong.

The second thing I have come across so far which was wrong, at 12:20m, has to do with RAAF MPA operations. While yes, No. 10 Sqd RAAF did get the P-3C Orions starting in the 1970's, that bit neglected a number of other relevant bits of information. First, there had been a recognized need for a surveillance capability for decades prior to the 1970's acquisition of the P-3C. In fact, No. 10 Sqd was re-formed in 1949 and conducted maritime & ASW patrols using modified Lincoln bombers from Townsville, before converting to Lockheed SP-2 Neptune MPA/ASW aircraft in 1962. It is worth noting that No. 11 Sqd RAAF which was also reformed, was re-equipped with P-2 Neptunes starting in 1951 for their MPA & ASW patrols, and converted to using the P-3B Orions in 1968...

Whilst I agree that the bit about JORN was a fairly good overview, I do also note that there was no mention of a similar, bistatic system called SECAR that either was or is in use by the ADF, also at RAAF Edinburgh, and sourced from a company called Daronmont Technologies.

Further posts to follow as I periodically watch more of the clip. It will likely take some time as the clip itself is nearly two hours long.

 

[south]

I am slowly going through the clip, but I do not have great hopes TBH given the video which seemed to endorse Marcus Hellyer's proposals regarding the Arafura-class. So far I have gotten to 11:46 and already came across something which while not particularly important, is verifably incorrect. The area of Australia is NOT significantly larger than the continental United States. In fact, the contiguous or co (lower 48, i.e. not including either Alaska or Hawaii) United States has a larger area than Australia. The continental US would include Alaska, which is itself ~20% the size of Australia. Again, not a major piece of incorrect information but it was something which sounded incorrect enough for me to pause to double check and confirm the claim was wrong.

CONUS does most definitely not include Alaska.

There are any number of links, including official USG websites that state as much.

Sorry to be a pedant - and definitely not intending to single you out - but the amount of stuff that is coming out recently, without citations, is grinding my gears somewhat…

 

[Todjaeger]

CONUS does most definitely not include Alaska.

There are any number of links, including official USG websites that state as much.

Sorry to be a pedant - and definitely not indenting to single you out - but the amount of stuff that is coming out recently, without citations, is grinding my gears somewhat…

And you would be wrong. There was a reason why I specified the difference between continental and contiguous United States. Those of us actually in the US use the term contiguous interchangeably with conterminous, but not with continental.

I would suggest starting first by looking at a globe to see where the landmass of the continent of North America is. Or alternately, look at this USGS website, with the USGS being the United States Geological Survey, a branch of the US Department of Interior. That should satisfy ones desire for a reference or citation, particularly since the link takes one to the official definition per the US government.

 

[south]

And you would be wrong. There was a reason why I specified the difference between continental and contiguous United States. Those of us actually in the US use the term contiguous interchangeably with conterminous, but not with continental.

Fair play, withdrawn due poor comprehension skills!

 

[hauritz]

Australia must prepare for the possibility of a Chinese base in Solomon Islands | The Strategist

News that a draft security agreement between Solomon Islands and China may soon be formalised has raised concerns in Canberra that Beijing could use it to establish a military base on Australia’s northern doorstep. If ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

Australia does now need to prepare for a greater Chinese Military presence in our region. It has always been inevitable in my opinion. While the article seems to mostly talk about using existing and planned surveillance capabilities such as JORN, P-8A Poseidon and the yet-to-be-delivered MQ-4C Triton and MQ-9B SkyGuardian drones I think naval assets, or rather lack of, must also become part of the discussion.

Not only has Australia got to protect its own EEZ but also those of its many island nation neighbours as well. It is potentially a massive undertaking.