ADF General discussion thread

ADMk2

Just a bloke
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I can see a number of problems with attempting to have land-based Tomahawks. Apart from the costs involved (USD$2 mil. per missile for FY2022...), all sorts of force structure and infrastructure questions would need to be answered, as well as how such a capability would be utilized in Australian service. I will be honest and state that I do not think such a capability would be particularly easily for Australia to bring to an operational level, or be particularly useful, and certainly not for the likely costs involved. In many respects it sounds much like proposals and assertions about turning ~1,600 tonne OPV's into warships equivalent to FFG's.

Firstly, would these proposed Tomahawk missiles be in launchers at a fixed location, would be they be mobile in vehicle, trailer, or even train car-mounted launchers? If the launchers are fixed, then Australia just put a large "Shoot Here" sign on wherever the launch site is. If the missiles are supposed to be mobile, then vehicle systems for all the necessary bits to actually launch the cruise missiles need to be produced and integrated into Australian military service. IMO this would not be a particularly easy task, as I suspect quite a few vehicles would be required to enable a strike of useful/effective size. Each TEL from when ground-launched Tomahawks were in service, could transport four missiles, and multiple TEL's would be required, as well as command & control vehicles, comms, etc.

There would also need to a OODA loop setup, with assets needed to provide the observation capability and target quality data. Without that, Tomahawks would only be useful to hit fixed targets that are within range of the launch site. To provide some context, a launch site near Darwin could potentially reach out into Indonesian waters around the southern portion of the Celebes Sea ~1,800 km away. Such a distant target would also take ~2hrs for the missiles to reach the target, which would present a problem if the target was supposed to be a ship or taskforce. Such a target if only cruising at 18 kts could easily be over 60 km away from where they were at the time of missile launch. Therefore some observation asset would need to be able to provide regular, frequent updates of target quality data which could then be relayed to the missiles while in route. Before any were to suggest it, whilst JORN provides a very good, wide area surveillance capability, it does NOT provide target quality data, additional systems would be required for that. Also, I would expect that Australia would be rather reluctant to blindly fire missiles at contacted detected 1,800 km away, without first identifying what the contact was.

As mentioned, the range of a Tomahawk tops out around 1,800 km, so apart from being able to hit targets in Indonesia, or in Indonesian waters, any land-based launchers would be limited in target options when based in Australia. Good luck getting permission for Australia to have land-based Tomahawk launchers operating in another country. Final note for this idea. 2k Tomahawk missiles works out to ~USD$4 bil. for just the missiles alone. It does not include any vehicles or launchers, any control systems, training and maintenance, etc. It also does not provide for any of the additional personnel that the ADF would need in order to operate and maintain the missiles and launchers, never mind whatever surveillance systems and comms arrays in order for Australia to be able to detect, target, and then engage something with land-based Tomahawks.

As for the idea of Australia building Arleigh Burke-class DDG's, in Australia... Yes, I suppose that is a possibility. However, the designs would all need to either be re-worked since the USN does not use the exact same systems as Australia for a number of things, or the RAN would need to adopt the exact same specific pieces of kit the USN uses aboard their DDG's. In short, the things that the US ironed out with their destroyer builds would not necessarily translate into an Australian build, because the two builds would not be identical. There would also be the reality that whatever Australian yard were to do such a build would still have a bit of a learning curve getting up to speed on the design.
I suspect Sheridan has been told about the US Army’s MRC Typhon capability, details of which can be found here:


I suspect existing HX series trucks already in Army service could be adapted in a rather straight forward manner to such a system, but the integration difficulties would be in relation to the required fire direction centres, cyber and EW resistance measures, SATCOM and data-link integration and so forth.

I imagine the ADF considers it’s long range targetting capabilities, particularly for maritime strike are already sufficient (or existing plans to expand such capabilities are at least, anyway) given the acquisition of Tomahawk is already approved and installation on the Hobart Class is planned to commence in 2024-25. Similar long ranged targetting capabilities will at any rate also be required for long ranged strike capabilities RAAF is soon to introduce via LRASM and JASSM-ER. so I’m not terribly concerned by that.

Cost is an issue obviously and I seriously doubt we’ll be seeing an ADF inventory of 2000 missiles of ANY variety, any time soon. Personnel is not that much of an issue though, as approved growth under FSP2020 included staff for a long-ranged fires Regiment (or 2, fingers crossed…)

It’s an interesting idea, that with SM-6 may correlate well with planning to acquire ‘deployable’ ABM / hypersonic air defence capabilities under AIR-6502…
 

Boagrius

Well-Known Member
I suspect Sheridan has been told about the US Army’s MRC Typhon capability, details of which can be found here:


I suspect existing HX series trucks already in Army service could be adapted in a rather straight forward manner to such a system, but the integration difficulties would be in relation to the required fire direction centres, cyber and EW resistance measures, SATCOM and data-link integration and so forth.

I imagine the ADF considers it’s long range targetting capabilities, particularly for maritime strike are already sufficient (or existing plans to expand such capabilities are at least, anyway) given the acquisition of Tomahawk is already approved and installation on the Hobart Class is planned to commence in 2024-25. Similar long ranged targetting capabilities will at any rate also be required for long ranged strike capabilities RAAF is soon to introduce via LRASM and JASSM-ER. so I’m not terribly concerned by that.

Cost is an issue obviously and I seriously doubt we’ll be seeing an ADF inventory of 2000 missiles of ANY variety, any time soon. Personnel is not that much of an issue though, as approved growth under FSP2020 included staff for a long-ranged fires Regiment (or 2, fingers crossed…)

It’s an interesting idea, that with SM-6 may correlate well with planning to acquire ‘deployable’ ABM / hypersonic air defence capabilities under AIR-6502…
Agree. IIRC there is also already an LBASM requirement in the ADF that Typhon could rather capably fill with a mix of SM-6 IB (hypersonic ASM), LRASM-SL and/or Tomahawk MST. Unlike an RAN LACM capability, its VLS cells would also be readily reloadable, allowing repeated strikes and possibly even larger missile salvos at long range.

While Tomahawk may be getting older, it should still complement other long range strike capabilities rather well(?). Seems reasonable to expect that its inevitable successor will plug into the Typhon system in due course given the ubiquity of Mk41 cells across the board.
 
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cdxbow

Well-Known Member
Considering the time and cost, and simple fact to my knowledge there are no currently fielded ground launchers for the Tomahawk it is a risky costly program whose use would be limited with out it at the same time being tied in with either airborne or spaceborne systems to have an accurate and upto date/time picture of the target. And if you are already having airborne targets on station watching them why the hell not just fit those with ASM's and use them? The proposal to be effective requires two different systems to work in consort with each other when you could do the job with just one of them (The aerial assets).

As to the cost, Well I imagine the NASAM's would be a good starting price range for something like this if not more, Program cost of $2 billion AUD for 2 batterys of NASAM's (Each battery with 3 troops, Each troop I would imagine having 4? launchers so 24 launchers all up? + various support vehicles etc) but taking into account Tomahawk more costly, Size and weight would require even larger support vehicles then a comparable NASAM battery each battery could be pushing $1.5 - $2 billion a peice and number of Tomahawks suggested even taking away ones for RAN could support a half dozen batterys being reloaded 5 times over so $9 - $12 billion or more... Very cheap deal. Buy now and will throw in a toaster.
Voonobie, you can argue better than that, it's a BS comparison and you know it. A NASAM system is more complex than the launch system for a tomahawk. For a start its got a big expensive CEA radars. We have made it more expensive than it need be by 'Australianising' it. So it's a rubbish comparison and the price figures you give have been pulled from a place where the sun doesn't shine.

For a Tomahawk its just a simple launcher, it's nor going to cost 2 billion dollars each battery, that's just ridiculous. I tried to find a cost of a modern TEL, the best I could find was from 2013 - 'the total program value for up to 26 mobile vehicles under this contract could reach over $92 million' I don't think that converts to 2 billion dollars a battery!

A fleet of 500 tomahawks is going to cost about a billion AUD. Enough launchers will be less than $500m AUD making it about 1.5 billion AUD total. So for the price of a frigate, you get 500 tomahawks with launchers. I reckon that's good value, 24/7 persistence with enough mass to trouble anyone out to 1800km, in all directions in all weather. Cheaper to maintain than a frigate and much less vulnerable.

There is no doubt land based long range missiles are by far the best bang for buck that nations can invest in. So I don't understand the negativity to the idea by lots of folks here. To me it's a no brainer.
 
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ADMk2

Just a bloke
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Voonobie, you can argue better than that, it's a BS comparison and you know it. A NASAM system is more complex than the launch system for a tomahawk. For a start its got a big expensive CEA radars. We have made it more expensive than it need be by 'Australianising' it. So it's a rubbish comparison and the price figures you give have been pulled from a place where the sun doesn't shine.

For a Tomahawk its just a simple launcher, it's nor going to cost 2 billion dollars each battery, that's just ridiculous. I tried to find a cost of a modern TEL, the best I could find was from 2013 - 'the total program value for up to 26 mobile vehicles under this contract could reach over $92 million' I don't think that converts to 2 billion dollars a battery!

A fleet of 500 tomahawks is going to cost about a billion AUD. Enough launchers will be less than $500m AUD making it about 1.5 billion AUD total. So for the price of a frigate, you get 500 tomahawks with launchers. I reckon that's good value, 24/7 persistence with enough mass to trouble anyone out to 1800km, in all directions in all weather. Cheaper to maintain than a frigate and much less vulnerable.

There is no doubt land based long range missiles are by far the best bang for buck that nations can invest in. So I don't understand the negativity to the idea by lots of folks here. To me it's a no brainer.
Agree, a bunch of reasons why it can’t work for us, but we are massively threatened by similar capabilities in adversarial countries with their ‘A2AD’ architecture.

Just seems an odd way of looking at things.
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
Voonobie, you can argue better than that, it's a BS comparison and you know it. A NASAM system is more complex than the launch system for a tomahawk. For a start its got a big expensive CEA radars. We have made it more expensive than it need be by 'Australianising' it. So it's a rubbish comparison and the price figures you give have been pulled from a place where the sun doesn't shine.

For a Tomahawk its just a simple launcher, it's nor going to cost 2 billion dollars each battery, that's just ridiculous. I tried to find a cost of a modern TEL, the best I could find was from 2013 - 'the total program value for up to 26 mobile vehicles under this contract could reach over $92 million' I don't think that converts to 2 billion dollars a battery!

A fleet of 500 tomahawks is going to cost about a billion AUD. Enough launchers will be less than $500m AUD making it about 1.5 billion AUD total. So for the price of a frigate, you get 500 tomahawks with launchers. I reckon that's good value, 24/7 persistence with enough mass to trouble anyone out to 1800km, in all directions in all weather. Cheaper to maintain than a frigate and much less vulnerable.

There is no doubt land based long range missiles are by far the best bang for buck that nations can invest in. So I don't understand the negativity to the idea by lots of folks here. To me it's a no brainer.
Your reply did get me looking seriously into this and the best I can come up with is a report from the CBO which was looking into various options for ground based long range fires.

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-02/56068-CBO-long-range-options.pdf

To compare our NASAMS order well from my research outside of the program cost listed at $2.5 billion AUD I have only found 3 contracts signed with the various parties,
- Raytheon for $680 million Commonwealth signs NASAMS acquisition contract - Australian Defence Magazine
- Konigsberg for $270 million Kongsberg awarded Australian air-defence-components contract worth $270million - CONTACT magazine
- CEA for $137 million Kongsberg readies first NASAMS launchers for delivery to Australia

The cheapest option using the JASSM-ER for 7 x batteries (approx 10 heavy trucks each) and their supporting elements along with 550 missiles puts the upfront capital in 2020 at $1.3b USD ($800m missiles/$500m Ground assets) with another $300m USD annually in sustainment costs.

Does go on to state in it the main cost difference is in the missiles and depending on missile if radar needed or not. So the Block V Tomahawk which is $2m USD not AUD as per the USMC order for 48 of them at $96m USD would add $300m to a similar sized group.

Allow a 20 year asset life span at $300m USD per annum + capital cost and your looking at $7.6 billion USD or over $10 billion AUD for 550 Tomohawks with out taking into account the intergrated sensor network that would be required to allow them to actually be able to be of any use, Is the RAN and RAAF up to scratch to provide this?, Are allied nations in the region up to it?, Would we have to invest further into it? So my $1.5 billion starting price about right on the money I would say.

Regards, Vonnoobie.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Agree, a bunch of reasons why it can’t work for us, but we are massively threatened by similar capabilities in adversarial countries with their ‘A2AD’ architecture.

Just seems an odd way of looking at things.
TBH I remain somewhat skeptical of the A2AD capabilities of some of the vaunted systems, and for much the same reason what I have serious doubts that the ADF could develop a useful Tomahawk-based (or other long-ranged missile for that matter) system without investing significant amounts of treasure. Yes, forces like the USN need to be mindful of A2AD efforts the PRC are attempting, so that vulnerabilities and gaps in such systems can be exploited to mitigate the threat such systems present or even be able to eliminate them entirely.

Just about the only A2AD threat that I have confidence could work, for a time at least, is the Iranian efforts to threaten the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. In part this is due to the rather narrow confines of those waterways, with the other part being Iran likely willing to fire AShM targeting any/all detected contacts with little concern for whether targets are naval vessels or commercial shipping, or what the country of registration, origin, or ownership is.

Something people seem to forget, based on the reactions in this thread, is that such long-ranged fires really need to be considered like one would battlefield artillery support. Fire support from regiments of the latest K9A2's, loaded with the latest extended-range guided munitions, are worth SFA if/when there is no link between the artillery support and an observer who can call in the fire support and provide coordinates and updates. If there is no observer who can detect and ID targets, then there would be no call for a fire support mission. If there is no communications link between a forward observer who has valid targets, and a fire direction control system to plot the fires needed to hit the targets, then again no fire support mission, and so on.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Voonobie, you can argue better than that, it's a BS comparison and you know it. A NASAM system is more complex than the launch system for a tomahawk. For a start its got a big expensive CEA radars. We have made it more expensive than it need be by 'Australianising' it. So it's a rubbish comparison and the price figures you give have been pulled from a place where the sun doesn't shine.

For a Tomahawk its just a simple launcher, it's nor going to cost 2 billion dollars each battery, that's just ridiculous. I tried to find a cost of a modern TEL, the best I could find was from 2013 - 'the total program value for up to 26 mobile vehicles under this contract could reach over $92 million' I don't think that converts to 2 billion dollars a battery!
All of the above regarding the costs associated with fielding a useful land-based long-range missile system are managing to ignore that much more than just the missiles and the TEL's would be required in for such systems to provide a useful capability, unless of course the targets for such a system were to be known, fixed locations on land.

A fleet of 500 tomahawks is going to cost about a billion AUD. Enough launchers will be less than $500m AUD making it about 1.5 billion AUD total. So for the price of a frigate, you get 500 tomahawks with launchers. I reckon that's good value, 24/7 persistence with enough mass to trouble anyone out to 1800km, in all directions in all weather. Cheaper to maintain than a frigate and much less vulnerable.
Not accurate. The FY2022 pricing for Block V Tomahawk, like I had mentioned previously and @vonnoobie reiterated is USD$2 mil. per missile, so 500 Tomahawks would be USD$1 bil. which at current exchange rates works out to ~AUD$1.358 bil. not AUD$1 bil. And to repeat, this is just for the missiles themselves, and not all the other pieces of kit and systems which would be required (and also need to be integrated) in order to provide a useful capability.

There is also another issue which advocates seem to have overlooked which would limit the utility of such a capability. That issue is just where would these land-based missiles be based, and what area would they operate in? If the hypothetical missiles, even in mobile launchers, were based around Darwin to cover the northern approaches to the continent, that would still leave enormous areas out of range. While mobile launchers could relocate, how long would it take such a unit to move to a new site closer to a theoretical threat? Given the vast distances involved, I expect it would likely take several days for such a unit to relocate in order to cover out of range areas, that or there would need to be a significant airlift capability. To provide a little context on the distances, a Darwin based unit with Block V Tomahawks could likely have the range to hit targets as far away as Bali in Indonesia, Port Mo in PNG, Dampier WA on the mainland to the west, or Townsville QLD if firing to the east. Hostile forces which might be threatening Carnarvon or Rockhampton, or any of the major population centres in QLD, NSW, VIC, SA or WA would be well out of range of a Darwin-based unit.

There is no doubt land based long range missiles are by far the best bang for buck that nations can invest in. So I don't understand the negativity to the idea by lots of folks here. To me it's a no brainer.
On the contrary, given the disagreement just within this thread, there is indeed doubt about the notion. This is because the question of whether land-based long-range missiles are valuable or not, has a great deal to do with the circumstances surrounding their development and employment. Given the apparent absence of consideration for needed supporting systems in an Australian context to make such a capability work, spending money on missiles to be fired from land-based launchers would appear to be a complete waste of money.
 

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
.....On the contrary, given the disagreement just within this thread, there is indeed doubt about the notion. This is because the question of whether land-based long-range missiles are valuable or not, has a great deal to do with the circumstances surrounding their development and employment. Given the apparent absence of consideration for needed supporting systems in an Australian context to make such a capability work, spending money on missiles to be fired from land-based launchers would appear to be a complete waste of money.
[/QUOTE]
Respectively and completely disagree. I will be expecting an apology when we get that capability. :)
 

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
Your reply did get me looking seriously into this and the best I can come up with is a report from the CBO which was looking into various options for ground based long range fires.

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-02/56068-CBO-long-range-options.pdf

To compare our NASAMS order well from my research outside of the program cost listed at $2.5 billion AUD I have only found 3 contracts signed with the various parties,
- Raytheon for $680 million Commonwealth signs NASAMS acquisition contract - Australian Defence Magazine
- Konigsberg for $270 million Kongsberg awarded Australian air-defence-components contract worth $270million - CONTACT magazine
- CEA for $137 million Kongsberg readies first NASAMS launchers for delivery to Australia

The cheapest option using the JASSM-ER for 7 x batteries (approx 10 heavy trucks each) and their supporting elements along with 550 missiles puts the upfront capital in 2020 at $1.3b USD ($800m missiles/$500m Ground assets) with another $300m USD annually in sustainment costs.

Does go on to state in it the main cost difference is in the missiles and depending on missile if radar needed or not. So the Block V Tomahawk which is $2m USD not AUD as per the USMC order for 48 of them at $96m USD would add $300m to a similar sized group.

Allow a 20 year asset life span at $300m USD per annum + capital cost and your looking at $7.6 billion USD or over $10 billion AUD for 550 Tomohawks with out taking into account the intergrated sensor network that would be required to allow them to actually be able to be of any use, Is the RAN and RAAF up to scratch to provide this?, Are allied nations in the region up to it?, Would we have to invest further into it? So my $1.5 billion starting price about right on the money I would say.

Regards, Vonnoobie.
The tax payer in me is shocked and surprised and the $300 million per year cost of sustainment of 550 missiles. I suspect that's a bodgy figure. Multiple the bodgy figure by a lot and get an even more Does the US pay (8x $300m) 2.4 billion yearly sustainment for the 4000 plus tomahawks it has? Added - your example means yearly missiles sustainment costs are about half the price of a missile. Vastly more expensive than aircraft! That's got to be rubbish.
 
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vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
The tax payer in me is shocked and surprised and the $300 million per year cost of sustainment of 550 missiles. I suspect that's a bodgy figure. Multiple the bodgy figure by a lot and get an even more Does the US pay (8x $300m) 2.4 billion yearly sustainment for the 4000 plus tomahawks it has? Added - your example means yearly missiles sustainment costs are about half the price of a missile. Vastly more expensive than aircraft! That's got to be rubbish.
It's from the CBO using the Pentagon's own figures as a baseline. Just because it doesn't fit your narrative doesn't mean you can try dismiss it as 'fake news's'. I provided an actual source to back up my statement, don't agree with it then I suggest you start digging to find figures that may or may not disprove it because we have all been warned my self many times to back up what we say with evidence.

Point of fact, if you bothered to go into the link you would have discovered that that sustainment cost isn't just for the units then selves but also the various other units, personal etc required to keep them operational which I imagine would range from cooks, technicians, logistics etc. For the units them selves it wouldn't just be the missiles needing the operational and sustainment budget but also the vehicles, personal, CiC etc etc.

Regards, Vonnoobie
 

Boagrius

Well-Known Member
According to the maritime factsheet from the 2020 Strategic Update, it seems ~$500m are already earmarked for the planned LBASM capability so I imagine this is where you'd start if a land-based Tomahawk arsenal was sought. While this amount clearly would not cover the cost of a ~500 strong stockpile, that obviously doesn't seem to be the intent of it for now. A Typhon-based LBASM capability that could accompany deployed forces into the region when needed might be much more versatile than one that always sits at home. Again, Tomahawk is obviously the weapon of choice where long-ranged strike is concerned, but LRASM-SL and SM6 would also be available, alongside NGLAW/whatever succeeds Tomahawk in due course - this would not have to be an exclusively-based-in-Aus-long-ranged-strike-system.

Additionally, with JORN, Poseidon, Triton, Wedgetail and F-35A (+KC-30A) either in service or in the pipeline, I'm not convinced that our capacity to cue long-ranged LBASM/LACM strikes would be the limiting factor here. That said, all of this must obviously be subject to appropriate analysis to ensure the needed effects can be efficiently brought to bear.
 
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cdxbow

Well-Known Member
It's from the CBO using the Pentagon's own figures as a baseline. Just because it doesn't fit your narrative doesn't mean you can try dismiss it as 'fake news's'. I provided an actual source to back up my statement, don't agree with it then I suggest you start digging to find figures that may or may not disprove it because we have all been warned my self many times to back up what we say with evidence.

Point of fact, if you bothered to go into the link you would have discovered that that sustainment cost isn't just for the units then selves but also the various other units, personal etc required to keep them operational which I imagine would range from cooks, technicians, logistics etc. For the units them selves it wouldn't just be the missiles needing the operational and sustainment budget but also the vehicles, personal, CiC etc etc.

Regards, Vonnoobie
It's a bit of a game which costs people shift in or out of a project, do you put the cooks in or out? I tried to get better information, but it's very hard to find anything that clearly describes the cost of sustainment of a missile fleet.. I looked through a couple of the Tomahawk program and couldn't work out exactly what part of the program cost was clearly sustainment. I still have extreme doubts that yearly sustainment cost of missiles is half the purchase price. Do our 400 Harpoon missiles cost $200 million per year to sustain? That seems very expensive. I have tried to find out, but I couldn't. Perhaps of the defence pros can help answer this?

Signed concerned Tax Payer.
 
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Takao

The Bunker Group
I reckon that's good value, 24/7 persistence with enough mass to trouble anyone out to 1800km, in all directions in all weather. Cheaper to maintain than a frigate and much less vulnerable.

There is no doubt land based long range missiles are by far the best bang for buck that nations can invest in. So I don't understand the negativity to the idea by lots of folks here. To me it's a no brainer.
As @Boagrius stated, the FSP budgets for a LBASM capability. So you are right in that there is a perceived need for it. When we were building it though, I argued strongly against it. And I still do. These are my views (which I will note, have already been told are wrong :D)

My concerns are various. First off is where are we launching from? LBASM aren't the longest range, especially the survivable ones. So parking a launcher in Cairns to cover the Coral Sea isn't really a thing. They are really only good for narrow waters. Which, advocates point out, are rife across our region. Except - only a few are used, and most of those are busy. Collateral damage is a likely possibility, I for one would be loathe to fire a LBASM into the Strait of Malacca with neutral shipping around.

Which leads to targets. How are we actually targeting these? P-8's? Ok, but they carry missiles, are faster and can go further. And, potentially, can sic F-35's onto the target. RAN units? Ok, but they carry ASM or torpedoes. UAV? Well, which one? RQ-4 outranges the LBASM and will find it easier to talk to RAAF; the others are too short range. Plus all of these aviation ISR platforms are highly vulnerable; hope the threat doesn't see them. Perhaps we can thicken up a RAN or RAAF missile salvo, but the targeting conundrum is something almost always ignored.

And how much can we shoot? 8 Tomahawks against a Type 052 or Type 055 isn't really credible; unless they are by themselves (which will be unlikely in a shooting war). We are talking subsonic and big missiles here with limited manoeuvrability, about as easy a target for a DDG as possible (except for the P-8 providing targeting info).

There is a big thing within uniformed circles to highlight that ships don't attack forts. True enough in days of sail or very confined waters, but since the breech loading gun this 'rule of thumb' has been wrong. That hasn't changed today.

All up, in my view its a capability that is just like the anti-Russian forts of the 1800s, expensive, good for the final 50 nm of an enemy approach and easily susceptible to anything over the horizon. I can't think of anything that I'd rather spend money on less (except maybe B-21).

I do note the fuss about other nations A2AD bubbles, especially the PLA's. With two expectations, I'm loathe to change any of my views - most of the above still apply.

The two exceptions relate to geography and speed. For the former, the Chines geographic issue is much easier. They have limited shoreline, two main areas they want to dominate the sea and currently tend to operate within close proximity of their nation. This all helps focus LBASM units and their targeting capabilities. The second exception relates to weapons. The Russians and Chinese have decent LBASM, including supersonic ones. Regardless of launch platform, the faster the ASM the better the chance of hitting.

Even with all that, the red rings of doom aren't actually that. We will have more freedom of action in those circles than the pundits tell us. Australian LBASM capability will be the same, arguably worse.
 
Whilst I am a big fan of ARMY getting a very long range fires capability I don't believe it should be tomahawk or even an anti ship capability as Tomahawk is too slow and too short ranged and the ability of ARMY to maintain the surface picture at even tomahawk range even after the expenditure of significant $ is not likely to be adequate as the time of flight is huge. Any targeting would require an air asset so you would be better putting the weapon on the air platform.
What ARMY should seek is a land attack capability to take out enemy lodgments and pesky little fake islands with airfields on them for example. The best weapon for this is some sort of IRBM or equivalent. I think current Army interest to acquire HIMARS/PrSM is the first step on that path.
 

ADMk2

Just a bloke
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Whilst I am a big fan of ARMY getting a very long range fires capability I don't believe it should be tomahawk or even an anti ship capability as Tomahawk is too slow and too short ranged and the ability of ARMY to maintain the surface picture at even tomahawk range even after the expenditure of significant $ is not likely to be adequate as the time of flight is huge. Any targeting would require an air asset so you would be better putting the weapon on the air platform.
What ARMY should seek is a land attack capability to take out enemy lodgments and pesky little fake islands with airfields on them for example. The best weapon for this is some sort of IRBM or equivalent. I think current Army interest to acquire HIMARS/PrSM is the first step on that path.
Interesting that not only the Australian Army seems to disagree with this notion (land based anti-ship fires in general), the USMC, US Army seem to as well? Seeing as we are poo-poo’ing actual systems they ARE fielding… Too slow? It is as fast as any other subsonic cruise missile and such missiles dominate the inventories of the West as a whole, just as they do the inventories of Russia and China…

The caveat I would put on the Tomahawk missile itself, for the Australian Army (and Navy for that matter) is that it is a ‘here and now’ capability as opposed to the mythical, one of these days, just around the corner type capability, we keep reading about for hypersonics. Additionally even in the MRC Typhon system, it is not the only effector. It is paired with the SM-6 Block IA, which gives you all the speed you could want (for now) whilst still maintaining decent range (beyond 350k). I don’t think many see the Tomahawk as a ‘forever’ solution. It’s latest Block Va / Vb variants are undoubtedly very capable, but I suspect it‘s (spectacular) career is on the. wind down, with newer missiles inevitably replacing it. Regardless of this, it’s current users (including us) will be using it for many years to come, before replacement weapons become operationally available.

As to targetting, again I point to the very real world and note the weapon is being acquired in ADF service initially but perhaps not only on the Hobart Class. Does anyone suggest we are doing so in the absence of an ability to employ such a weapon without adequate targetting data? Given this and how joint we are striving to be, I fail to see what difference which service actually launch the things, will make?

Our targeting data will come from our own substantial surface, sub-surface, air, land and space capabilities. From our intelligence capabilities and from our allies, as I cannot envisage this ‘lobbing of missiles into the pacific / SCS’ that we are envisaging, occuring in a vacuum…
 

Boagrius

Well-Known Member
As @Boagrius stated, the FSP budgets for a LBASM capability. So you are right in that there is a perceived need for it. When we were building it though, I argued strongly against it. And I still do. These are my views (which I will note, have already been told are wrong :D)...

...Even with all that, the red rings of doom aren't actually that. We will have more freedom of action in those circles than the pundits tell us. Australian LBASM capability will be the same, arguably worse.
A few thoughts:

- Can’t dispute that with its larger signature and modest aerodynamic/kinematic capabilities, even the Blk V Tomahawk seems like an aging and imperfect anti-shipping weapon. As @ADMk2 pointed out though, this doesn't seem to be dissuading the US...

- While the Tomahawk may be better suited to striking static land-based targets (via terrain masking etc?) we have already announced an intention to procure it for the RAN regardless. IIRC a single Typhon battery with 4 x TELs would be launching 16 of them at a time, repeatably. I can’t imagine the RAN will be able to beat or replicate this effect any time soon.

- I openly wonder whether reloads would allow you to have 2 x salvos arrive simultaneously by sacrificing some range, or whether simply using more than one battery at once would help mitigate the problem of penetrating hostile defences. 32 x MST’s appearing at the radar horizon simultaneously would be a less trivial problem for your notional 055 or 052 when just one weapon slipping through to impact could be catastrophic(?)

- Again, with Typhon you’d also have the choice of the hypersonic SM-6 Blk IB or the LO LRASM(/JASSM-ER?)-SL, which ought to be more survivable. Granted, neither of those would give the combined range and punch of the Tomahawk, so I imagine you are back to a more localised LBASM (rather than long-range strike) capability there. Still more formidable than NSM mind you...

- I would have thought the F35, perhaps directed by JORN and Poseidon, would make an ideal “spotting” aircraft, since it should be able to fly out to the full practical range Tomahawk can provide (with KC-30 support) while under VLO and with the sensor suite & data sharing capability to ID hostile shipping and pass the target data on as needed.

- While your Poseidon could certainly “sic” a strike package of F35’s onto a given surface target, using the F35’s simply as VLO spotters (rather than shooters) to pipe precise targeting data to the incoming Tomahawks - particularly leading up to their final approach - would have some benefits. For example, the F35 fleet is still likely to be tied to static and eminently locatable airfields/strips, while mobile Typhon batteries ought to be much harder to pinpoint and interdict.

- Another that springs to mind is the fact that you could probably complete a maritime MST strike with a more modest number of F35s – perhaps a single 4-ship – placing far less strain on scarce AAR assets and freeing up other F35’s to conduct other tasks. For more challenging targets (larger SAGs or even CSGs) a larger strike package could simultaneously add its own weapons to the Tomahawk salvo(s), perhaps from an entirely different vector…

Just my 2c.
 
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Bob53

Well-Known Member
A bit short for time so apologies in advance for no references.

No coverage for Carnarvon… Australia would know we had unhappys on the way well be fore they got to the Indonesian archipelago. With a few days notice you can drive from Perth or Darwin and get to Derby or Broome. These wheeled transporters can drive to where we need them to be.

I don’t see Tomahawk as the be all and end all of ASMs. But they are the longest range option so better to chew through the defensive missile cells on an enemy force 1300-1400 kms from Australia with several waves of attack before we start to put humans in planes in harms way to attack with more sophisticated weapons like LRASM.


Lets say an attacking force used 40-60% of their air defence weapons ( assume 3 waves of 8 missiles and 3-4 defensive missile per missile )before they go to within 1000kms of a target. Would they press on? What if one got through? So they turn around. Mission accomplished ( hopefully not in George W kind of way) Or they press on and we keep firing with the second defensive ring supplied by the RAAF. Yep having missiles on trucks is not as sexy as planes but no airfield required. Significantly less maintenance of the transporter required, less chance of losing a supremely trained pilot or aircraft. It’s a no brainer on that front and seriously complicates any approach.

Aspect aspect is can allow less well equipped vessels to operate under an umbrella.

Targeting…I read in here earlier and it stuck in my head…that a Triton MQ4 at 17000 metres has a horizon of 450kms. I assume that is is how they plan to target?

As to risk of hitting a civilian ship. I read that the AS version of tomahawk V5 The US Navy has an upgraded Tomahawk: Here’s 5 things you should know

has ship recognition capabilities. I don’t know how well that has been perfected but the reason was the ability to target enemies in congested waters.

Maintenance is a moot point in my view.... is a bit of a red herring. Wether we have ground based missiles or air launched missiles they will need to be maintained and I would make a rough guess that maintenance and support for either would be about the same so in relation to this argument, that support argument could realistically be disregarded. If you buy 250 Tomahawk or 250 LRASM they will both need to be supported.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Time to calm down a bit people. Don't get to carried away on missile platforms yet. I would suggest that you wait and see what AShM is chosen for the RAN and RAAF before you start leaping into pronouncements. Those acquisitions will guide you. Yes it has been announced that the Tomahawk will be acquired, but in what role it will be used is another story.
 

Stampede

Well-Known Member
A bit short for time so apologies in advance for no references.

No coverage for Carnarvon… Australia would know we had unhappys on the way well be fore they got to the Indonesian archipelago. With a few days notice you drive from Perth or Darwin and get to Derby or Broome. These can drive to where we need them to be.

I don’t see these as the be all and end all of ASMs. But they are the longest range option so better to chew through the defensive missile cells on an enemy force 1300-1400 kms from Australia with several waves of attack before we start to put humans in planes in harms way to attack with more sophisticated weapons like LRASM.

Lets say an attacking force used 40-60% of their air defence weapons ( assume 3 waves of 8 missiles and 3-4 defensive missile per missile )before they go to within 1000kms of a target. Would they press on? What if one got through? So they turn around. Mission accomplished ( hopefully not in George W kind of way) Or they press on and we keep firing with the second defensive ring supplied by the RAAF. Yep having missiles on trucks is as sexy as planes but no airfield required. Significantly less maintenance required, less chance of losing a supremely trained pilot or aircraft. It’s a no brainer on that front.

Targeting…I read in here earlier and it stuck in my head…that a Triton MQ4 at 17000 metres has a horizon of 450kms. I assume that is is how they plan to target?

As to risk of hitting a civilian ship and this is the part I am rushed to find a reference (mods sorry…I’ll dig it up tonight) I read that the AS version of tomahawk has ship recognition capabilities. I don’t know how well that has been perfected but the reason was the ability to target enemies in congested waters.

Maintenance is a moot point in my view.... is a bit of a red herring . Wether we have ground based missiles or air launched missiles they will need to be maintained and I make a rough guess that maintenance and support for either would be about the sa… so in relation to this argument that coukd realistically be disregarded. If you buy 250 Tomahawk or 250 LRASM they will need to be supported.
Whatever missile we get and however we deploy it will have a dramatic effect on our military landscape.
The Argentinians had a very modest number of Exocet missiles in the Falklands conflict, but their potential was always a constant concern for the British task force...........A greater proficiency in their use and numbers on hand could of been a game changer.

We could have no more than half a dozen old Tomahawk missiles in inventory and this would make an adversary think very differently to the alternative of none.
Whatever we get will be a major plus.
We just need to work the concept for our environment.

Regards S


Regards S
 

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
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