6th Generation Fighters Projects
- Thread starter Sandhi Yudha
- Start date
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Tempest will have some components from vendors not located in Japan, UK or Italy and had FCAS proceeded it would have had components from outside Germany Spain and France. Certainly Sweden will require more foreign input than Tempest. A gen 5.5 with CCA is good enough for Sweden.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
I believe the premises that you put is 2050+, potentially the Gen 4.5 production line already stop altogether. F-35 can be what F-16 at this moment.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Will probably take until 2050+ just for LM to deliver on their promises,
Terran
Well-Known Member
Using modern metrics yes. The problem for this argument is that F35’s support base is still expanding. The next Tech refresh includes major alterations that are to change the standards of Stealth coatings which is a major factor in readiness along with expansion of engine and maintenance facilities.
When F16 was brand new it suffered all of theses issues too. Including an HBO movie that called it a “lawn dart”. F16 evolved over its service life to what it is today. Just as F35 will continue to evolve. as to cost. The Rule is and remains that the more you build the less it costs. F35C will remain the most expensive option of the line due to its low numbers. F35A however is already at a cost point per unit rivaling brand new F16 Block 70.
It's a new AESA radar from Leonardo in Scotland, but IIRC has some SAAB input. It was designed specifically for Gripen E, & won't fit in Gripen C/D. SAAB designed an AESA version of the PS-05/A to fit the C/D, but AFAIK hasn't sold any.
The Swedes have fairly unique needs, and I don't seem them requiring a large, twin engine design or perhaps even a 6th generation. Their FCAS concepts are draw heavily on single engine designs, and using CCAs as a multipler. From a market position perspective, it offers something cheaper and exportable.
Germany/Spain are stuck in between a rock and hard place. On their own, they might have too little capacity to do a 6th generation program, but they have a number of industries which they need to keep alive (the MTUs, Hensoldts, Diehls, Indras as part of Team Gen 6). The GCAP program I feel, is unlikely to want to review workshare programs or can only offer small pieces which will not satisfy these industrial companies.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
Pick Sweden over British fighter jet offer, German defense officials urge Berlin
Internal documents assess Germany should pursue a new warplane project with Sweden and Spain, warning that the existing alternative could leave it with too little influence.
www.politico.eu
Not really surprising, as enter GCAP will not give German Industry much workload access. Even can be less then FCAS with French. So German want to go with Spain and Sweden, and Spain already shown willingness to do it. Now what's left if convince Sweden.
French will go by their own, and using Rafale F5 as interim. They are quite sure will got strong export market as like Rafale now days.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Tough choice for Sweden, Spain isn’t exactly an economic powerhouse these days albeit either is the UK at the moment especially with all their pressing defence needs (RN and army, anti-drone kit, Ukraine donations). In my limited opinion, GCAP seems like a better bet given its progress relative to whatever concept Germany and Spain have in mind.Pick Sweden over British fighter jet offer, German defense officials urge Berlin
Internal documents assess Germany should pursue a new warplane project with Sweden and Spain, warning that the existing alternative could leave it with too little influence.
Not really surprising, as enter GCAP will not give German Industry much workload access. Even can be less then FCAS with French. So German want to go with Spain and Sweden, and Spain already shown willingness to do it. Now what's left if convince Sweden.
French will go by their own, and using Rafale F5 as interim. They are quite sure will got strong export market as like Rafale now days.
All these horse trading is about industrial access, and less about the platform itself.
The fact that GCAP is further along the line means the existing consortium have little need to add a new partner, which would end up to be diluting their own share of the pie.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
So joining the GCAP program means access to a 6th generation fighter (and EF2000 replacement) before 2040 (hopefully), but almost no workshare for the German defence industry. An own program with potential participation of Spain and Sweden gives more workshare and the possibility for the German defence industry to keep the knowledge and expertise and to develop, but the Luftwaffe has to wait patiently to after 2050 for a EF2000 replacement.
It is maybe better to order a small amount of GCAPs as an interim solution.
It is maybe better to order a small amount of GCAPs as an interim solution.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Airbus eyes UK-Japan-Italy fighter jet deal after rival collapse
Airbus chief Guillaume Faury said on Wednesday that the European plane maker could join a British-Japanese-Italian consortium to build a next generation fighter jet after the collapse of a Franco-German rival.
www.euronews.com
Points is, Airbus want to join GCAP but expect industrial sharing. If they don't get it there's other options. So bargaining begin.
SolarisKenzo
Well-Known Member
It's looking like Germany and Canada are trying to get a role in the GCAP.
Canada of course can't aim at much from a workshare point of view, but Germany would actually be a major news.
Let's see how it goes.
News from Europe (also confirmed to me personally) are that UK and Italy already gave green light to Germany. Japan still uncertain (they don't like the possibility of delays). Airbus now in talks with BAE and Leonardo, while german politics will try to talk with the nippons.
Canada not really a problem since they are not going to ask for major shares overhaul.
defence-industry.eu
www.janes.com
Canada of course can't aim at much from a workshare point of view, but Germany would actually be a major news.
Let's see how it goes.
News from Europe (also confirmed to me personally) are that UK and Italy already gave green light to Germany. Japan still uncertain (they don't like the possibility of delays). Airbus now in talks with BAE and Leonardo, while german politics will try to talk with the nippons.
Canada not really a problem since they are not going to ask for major shares overhaul.
Germany weighs GCAP entry after FCAS collapse as Airbus and BAE Systems prepare for talks
Airbus is to open talks with BAE Systems on joining the Global Combat Air Programme after the collapse of FCAS, while Poland has reportedly received informal approval to join GCAP as an observer.
defence-industry.eu
Canada signs first GCAP-related industrial agreement
Canada has signed its first industrial agreement related to the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) since joining as an observer earlier in 2026.
www.janes.com
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
The only possible incentive for Japan offering Airbus investment in GCAP is their concerns with UK financial problems, just my two cents though. Agree, Canada will have minor involvement but Canada a viable potential customer.
The GCAP Edgewing consortium has all three partners on a equal 33.3% share. In the current Eurofighter consortium, Airbus was in a three way split and having a 46% share.
I just can't see how Airbus will accept a minor role or anything less than what the other partners are getting. Which goes back to the dilutive effect of inserting a fourth partner (25% for everyone). Merz recent trip to Japan was also to sound out the Japanese.
www.nippon.com
I just can't see how Airbus will accept a minor role or anything less than what the other partners are getting. Which goes back to the dilutive effect of inserting a fourth partner (25% for everyone). Merz recent trip to Japan was also to sound out the Japanese.
Japan Weighs Response to German Interest in GCAP Fighter Program | Nippon.com
A multilingual, nonprofit site with content on Japanese culture, destinations, entertainment, and more.
www.nippon.com
SolarisKenzo
Well-Known Member
The GCAP Edgewing consortium has all three partners on a equal 33.3% share. In the current Eurofighter consortium, Airbus was in a three way split and having a 46% share.
I just can't see how Airbus will accept a minor role or anything less than what the other partners are getting. Which goes back to the dilutive effect of inserting a fourth partner (25% for everyone). Merz recent trip to Japan was also to sound out the Japanese.
Japan Weighs Response to German Interest in GCAP Fighter Program | Nippon.com
A multilingual, nonprofit site with content on Japanese culture, destinations, entertainment, and more.
Yeah but the current Eurofighter consortium was from the beginning "german-centric" considering that Germany was the main client and partner of both the Eurofighter and of the older Panavia Tornado.
Germany - UK - Italy is an historical trio in the military aviation industry, it would not be crazy if Germany joined the GCAP.
I also, however, agree that everything is quite confused and an Airbus participation would be quite problematic.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Germany-Japan-Italy, that's a familar trio as well.
Very briefly, & only in a "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" way. Their cooperation in WW2 was minimal, except after Italy had dragged Germany unwillingly into war in the Balkans & then Libya, because of the incompetence of Mussolini & his generals & the need to rescue them from the messes they'd got into.Germany-Japan-Italy, that's a familar trio as well.