6th Generation Fighters Projects

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Countries like India, Indonesia or Saudi Arabia increasingly want to show both sides (West and Russia-China), that they are independent and don't want to be dictate by either sides/polars. They are part of bigger Global South nations that want to shown path of their own.

However (this I already point on my rare dallies with Indonesian forums), means those countries also need to face consequences of less wilingness of each polars on engaging them with their most cutting edge techs, especially in Defense. This already shown where US wiling to give F-16V or F-15EX to all those three nations, but not F-35 (not yet at least).

If either Euro developer that more likely work with either three above countries (as example), personally I believe it is more likely Frenchie. Especially if their 6th Gen tied up with German bust. India and Indonesia already big Rafale customer, and seems potentially Saudi's too. India also already Rafale M customer, thus natural potential partner for French on 6th gen Carrier base.

I don't also see UK will take Saudi on the expense of Japan. Frenchie more likely, as they are also try to find more capital that are not "dictate" by US.
I agree France is a more likely partner for India and Indonesia, especially as a 6th Gen carrier jet is needed for both France and India, perhaps Indonesia as well. Maybe SK is a potential partner as well. Don’t think even France would want Saudi Arabia in a 6th Gen project.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Muhammed bin Salman is different breed of Saudi King (well he's now more de facto King) then his Father and Uncles. He's more willing to face US, and now he is pissed with the German. This where the talk of Rafale coming from.



UK always close with Saud family, still it is question of Japan. So it's back to UK to convince other partners. Again what Saudi can bring is capital. 6th gen fighter program is expensive. Track record shown this kind of projects have tendencies to be over budget. More capital being secure can be attractive. So it is always toos-up choices between the two (Tech and Capital).

Don’t think even France would want Saudi Arabia in a 6th Gen project.
They won't if German still in partnership, but if German out, and they need more capital to close the balance left by the German, well I do see big potential, especially if Saudi then ditch their Euro jets for Rafale. Politics matter.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Muhammed bin Salman is different breed of Saudi King (well he's now more de facto King) then his Father and Uncles. He's more willing to face US, and now he is pissed with the German. This where the talk of Rafale coming from.



UK always close with Saud family, still it is question of Japan. So it's back to UK to convince other partners. Again what Saudi can bring is capital. 6th gen fighter program is expensive. Track record shown this kind of projects have tendencies to be over budget. More capital being secure can be attractive. So it is always toos-up choices between the two (Tech and Capital).



They won't if German still in partnership, but if German out, and they need more capital to close the balance left by the German, well I do see big potential, especially if Saudi then ditch their Euro jets for Rafale. Politics matter.
If Germany leaves, SK would be a better option than Saudi Arabia. SK can offer technology as well as capital without the baggage Saudi Arabia comes with.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
SK would be a better option than Saudi Arabia.
If SK want to work something on their major defense procurement or project without US footprint. Something that SK so far will not doing it. Besides SK will be busy developing their of KF-21. KF-21 batch 3 is aim for more 5th gen + tech. Indonesia (if the administration consistent) will also involves.

So if German bail out, Frenchie partner choices more likely be India, and if Saudi can't get UK to convince other partners, then it's open for Frenchie to get Saudi too. What I'm saying don't look from North American POV, look at Frenchie need (if German bail out). 6th gen project is very expensive, prone to over budgets, and more capital accumulation needed. Frenchie need someone who can close the capital gap German left out. India can be, but perhaps will not be enough.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
If SK want to work something on their major defense procurement or project without US footprint. Something that SK so far will not doing it. Besides SK will be busy developing their of KF-21. KF-21 batch 3 is aim for more 5th gen + tech. Indonesia (if the administration consistent) will also involves.

So if German bail out, Frenchie partner choices more likely be India, and if Saudi can't get UK to convince other partners, then it's open for Frenchie to get Saudi too. What I'm saying don't look from North American POV, look at Frenchie need (if German bail out). 6th gen project is very expensive, prone to over budgets, and more capital accumulation needed. Frenchie need someone who can close the capital gap German left out. India can be, but perhaps will not be enough.
France has better options than Saudi Arabia, a country that can only offer capital and political/religious baggage. Why not Brazil, already working on subs so why not aircraft as well since Embraer would be a viable industrial partner? As far as I am concerned, just about any developed or developing country other than Saudi Arabia, NK, China, and Russia would do. For the moment Iran would be on this list as well but there may be hope the Iranians themselves can take care of the mutts presently in charge.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
better options than Saudi Arabia, a country that can only offer capital and political/religious baggage.
John, since when those three (US, Brits and Frenchie) think about the second one when dealing with Saudi ? They always think mostly the first one. Even now all the talks agains Saudi in Congress mostly due to MBS dare to say 'no' to White House demand on oil and Russia.

Again all this only 'what if' scenario. We only now so far Saudi ask the Brits to be involve in 6th Gen project, and Japan reluctant to accept it. French so far still stick with German, and potentially only accepting new partner if German bail out. One thing the geopolitical track record so far from US, UK, and French with Saudi, they will accept Saudi if the "bargain" is right.

Just add, of all potential Non Euro nations that being talk has big economic potentials (now and future), also has ambition to develop or involve in Fighter development, whose has potential to involve with any 6th gen project as partner? This in conditions present 6th gen project need new partners:

1. India, very potential. However they are also have ambition to develop their own AMCA project.
2. South Korea, as mention before more likely develop further their own KF-21.
3. Indonesia, less likely. Even now has questionable commitment on KF-21 project. Thus make questionable commitment for any International long-term project.
4. Brazil, possible, but considering now they are more interested working with SAAB for Gripen E/F, questionable will be interested with another long-term fighter project.
5. Turkiye, well this is obvious. As long as Sultan Erdo faction hold the reign, they will go with their own TFX project.

Thus left potential the Gulf Kingdoms, especially Saudi and UAE. They always have baggage, now they want more independent geopolitical standing. Still they're continued being predict to have strong capital and most importantly "will" to invest in expensive defense projects.

That's in the end what matters. Money to invest in expensive projects, if you need to find partners for your expensive projects.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
John, since when those three (US, Brits and Frenchie) think about the second one when dealing with Saudi ? They always think mostly the first one. Even now all the talks agains Saudi in Congress mostly due to MBS dare to say 'no' to White House demand on oil and Russia.

Again all this only 'what if' scenario. We only now so far Saudi ask the Brits to be involve in 6th Gen project, and Japan reluctant to accept it. French so far still stick with German, and potentially only accepting new partner if German bail out. One thing the geopolitical track record so far from US, UK, and French with Saudi, they will accept Saudi if the "bargain" is right.
Realistically all the kit sold to Saudi Arabia isn't really tier one, on the aviation side at least, so any technology leakage would be of minimal concern. Much of the profit for Western suppliers is after sale support (people and parts). France may be willing to risk 6th Gen technology for capital relief but will other partners accept this? I guess we will see if Germany backs out.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
This article explains the current future military fighter programs in Europe (plus Japan) and attempts to explain FCAS, a term used by both groups along with Tempest, GCAP and SCAF.o_O


 

Meriv90

Active Member
Bad article IMHO. They should have started with the cooperation between France and Britain, following the Neuron and Taranis demonstrators. Then Brexit happen and both kept the program name.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Bad article IMHO. They should have started with the cooperation between France and Britain, following the Neuron and Taranis demonstrators. Then Brexit happen and both kept the program name.
Whatever, France and the UK working together would be the same as Germany and France, French demands would derail the project.
 
There have been reports that the US NGAD program may be in doubt. The attached link by Bill Sweetman is a good summary of why the program may be on the rocks. The NGAP is still on going albeit at a slower pace.

It's now just the NGAD program whose future has been called into question. The US Navy's FY2025 has withdrawn $1 billion in funding for the F/A-XX program, so the Navy may have to wait some time longer to acquire a stealthy air superiority fighter to replace the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet that fulfills the F-14's air superiority role (which would have been occupied by the Naval Advanced Tactical Fighter cancelled in 1991), although it could procure a strike/surveillance variant of the MQ-25 Stingray proposed by Boeing last April for the carrier-based attack mission which the cancelled A-12 Avenger II would have fulfilled had it been built.

Nevertheless, Boeing has started construction of a factory to build its NGAD design should it be chosen as the winner of the NGAD competition (from which Northrop Grumman withdrew last year):
 
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hauritz

Well-Known Member
There have been reports that the US NGAD program may be in doubt. The attached link by Bill Sweetman is a good summary of why the program may be on the rocks. The NGAP is still on going albeit at a slower pace.

I think the issue with NGAD is that it is System of Systems that doesn’t necessarily even need an air dominance fighter.

The immediate plan would seem to be a mix of manned and unmanned systems. This could be achieved using existing systems such as the F-35 and eventually teaming them with unmanned aircraft. Whether you would need to develop a specialised new fighter to operate along side that is another issue.

A more prudent approach might be to first evaluate a mix of F-35s and Loyal Wingman aircraft and then take it from there. To be honest it wouldn’t surprise me if the F-35 is the last manned fighter ever built for the USAF.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I think the issue with NGAD is that it is System of Systems that doesn’t necessarily even need an air dominance fighter.

The immediate plan would seem to be a mix of manned and unmanned systems. This could be achieved using existing systems such as the F-35 and eventually teaming them with unmanned aircraft. Whether you would need to develop a specialised new fighter to operate along side that is another issue.

A more prudent approach might be to first evaluate a mix of F-35s and Loyal Wingman aircraft and then take it from there. To be honest it wouldn’t surprise me if the F-35 is the last manned fighter ever built for the USAF.
Perhaps Loyal Wingman controlled from a B-21.
 
I think that is already the plan.
The US Air Force during the Cold War used the B-52 as a launch platform for the GAM-72 decoy vehicle and D-21 supersonic reconnaissance UAV, so it is no stranger to using a strategic bomber to launch a UAV.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
The US Air Force during the Cold War used the B-52 as a launch platform for the GAM-72 decoy vehicle and D-21 supersonic reconnaissance UAV, so it is no stranger to using a strategic bomber to launch a UAV.
Of course the next step would be to simply let the UAVs operate completely autonomously and not actually accompany them into combat at all.

The problem with node aircraft and human controllers is simply that it doesn’t scale up. Imagine a situation where you were trying to control swarms of suicide drones. That would very quickly overwhelm a human controller.

To allow UAVs to operate effectively in very time critical situations you will probably need to let them make their own decisions. This is the scary part in my mind. It may not be practical to keep a human in the loop at all times. The idea of a human operator controlling and accessing data from dozens of different drones may not be feasible.

In fact go one step above that and imagine a single human operator not only being completely overwhelmed by information coming from the drones directly under their control but also processing information from a network of other operators. It would be like trying to play several hundred games of chess all at once.

My own opinion, admittedly as a non-military person, is that setting up an effective human centric command and control system when dealing with swarms of killer UAVs will be nigh on impossible.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Of course the next step would be to simply let the UAVs operate completely autonomously and not actually accompany them into combat at all.

The problem with node aircraft and human controllers is simply that it doesn’t scale up. Imagine a situation where you were trying to control swarms of suicide drones. That would very quickly overwhelm a human controller.

To allow UAVs to operate effectively in very time critical situations you will probably need to let them make their own decisions. This is the scary part in my mind. It may not be practical to keep a human in the loop at all times. The idea of a human operator controlling and accessing data from dozens of different drones may not be feasible.

In fact go one step above that and imagine a single human operator not only being completely overwhelmed by information coming from the drones directly under their control but also processing information from a network of other operators. It would be like trying to play several hundred games of chess all at once.

My own opinion, admittedly as a non-military person, is that setting up an effective human centric command and control system when dealing with swarms of killer UAVs will be nigh on impossible.
I mean... we have AShMs choosing which ships in a grouping to hit, when launched from very far away. Imagine something like an AEW set-up but it's a controller bird for a UAS swarm. You don't need to manually control each one, just set parameters.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
I mean... we have AShMs choosing which ships in a grouping to hit, when launched from very far away. Imagine something like an AEW set-up but it's a controller bird for a UAS swarm. You don't need to manually control each one, just set parameters.
I agree that in certain situations it is possible to assert some level of control but what about on a battlefield where you are dealing with perhaps dozens or even hundreds of combat engagements all happening simultaneously?

Even if humans were in the loop there would be no guarantee that blue on blue or collateral damage wouldn’t occur.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I agree that in certain situations it is possible to assert some level of control but what about on a battlefield where you are dealing with perhaps dozens or even hundreds of combat engagements all happening simultaneously?

Even if humans were in the loop there would be no guarantee that blue on blue or collateral damage wouldn’t occur.
Will the future battlefield have that many engagements on a single battlefield? I'm not sold. I wouldn't be surprised if the days of units above a btln acting in one place are over with most engagements shrinking even further.
 
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