6th Generation Fighters Projects

[SolarisKenzo]

I am trying to understand the reasons behind Tempest and FCAS and their procurement process, which is influenced by the fact that european defence industries are still largely controlled by the states.
Not trying to guess what Europe will be in 30 years.
I dont have the crystal ball telling me what the world will look like in 2050, neither is the point of the topic.
So, its probably my fault, but I dont understand the point of you messages. I was/am speaking about fighter programs today, You are talking about politics in 30 years. We agree that FCAS and Tempest are probably redundact, but this is how it works now.
I am, very honestly, not interested in the fact that you think Europe and European companies in 2050 will become a single entity. Couldnt care less and isnt even the point of the discussion.

Regarding the public debt, this is not the appropriate topic.
However, to better understand the health of a country's debt, you cant just look at the amount of Money or the percentage of interests.
Public debts are a difficult matter, many factor have to be taken into account: the composition of the debt, the actors managing the debt, the different interests rates of the various shares of the debt, the btps expiry date, the country's economic situation, if they have a sovereign value ( do they print money? ) and so on...

 

[OPSSG]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1601072995362951169

On 9 Dec 2022, Japan, Italy & UK announced the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) – an ambitious endeavour to develop a next-generation fighter aircraft by 2035.

This is a big win for BAE & UK industry in general — which also means they can forget about accommodating the demanding Dassault & the GCAP is likely to use twin Rolls-Royce jet engines.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1601064221864734721

The GCAP will accelerate their advanced military capability & technological advantage. More details of the industrial work share arrangements & lead companies involved in GCAP. With 3 countries buying fighters, it might gain critical mass for its production line — with 2 of the 3 operating both F-35As & F-35Bs.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

This is a big win for BAE & UK industry in general — which also means they can forget about accommodating the demanding Dassault & the GCAP is likely to use twin Rolls-Royce jet engines.

That's a good assessment. I recall RR were going to help the Japanese with the engine for F-X when it was still a separate plane, so it would make sense if they will do the engines for GCAP - simpler that way.

Very pleased to hear the formal announcement of this.

 

[swerve]

I think the Japanese will get some input into the engine. They've been doing relevant development work lately, & if they're putting up a lot of the money & buying a lot of aircraft, they'll expect something for it.

 

[Ananda]

Why Japan Chose Britain and Italy for Its F-X Fighter Program

5 reasons why Japan decided to jointly develop a next-generation fighter with the U.K. and Italy, not the U.S.

thediplomat.com

This is perhaps good summary why Japan choose to join their F-X program with Tempest. The article point out on the experiences Japan has with US on F-2 looming much on the decision making. Not surprising there. F-2 turn out (if we compare to USD constant prices), one of the most expensive Fighter program. With that Japan bear most of the development costs but still facing some US restrictions.

Clearly open tech sharing and potential on export flexibilities is one thing that any future international cooperation need to be base on. Especialy if all practically on equal partnership footing (not Senior-Junior partnership).

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

I think the Japanese will get some input into the engine. They've been doing relevant development work lately, & if they're putting up a lot of the money & buying a lot of aircraft, they'll expect something for it.

Some sort of input is possible. But with just three partners there's a lot of aircraft to go around for sharing work for making the components. We also know that Japan is cooperating with the UK on JNAAM, so that's another thing they'll have input on.

 

[Ananda]

Partner governments award FCAS/SCAF demonstrator contract

The partner governments of France, Germany, and Spain have contracted their respective industrial representatives to undertake flying demonstrator work on the Future...

www.janes.com

French, German and Spain give contract for prototype-demostrator building on FCAS/SCAF program. Seems both Tempest and FCAS momentum traction on track.

 

[seaspear]

This article suggests a demonstrator aircraft flying by 2029 and although the aircraft will be to heavy for the current French aircraft carrier will be suitable for the future French nuclear carrier
European Future Combat Air Program Wants Demonstrators Flying By 2029 (thedrive.com)
This Is What France's Giant Future Aircraft Carrier Will Look Like (thedrive.com)

 

[John Fedup]

Funding will be provided to both P&W and GE to further develop NGAP for the NGAD fighter. There doesn’t seem to be any interest in having two production programs down the road though, a mistake IMHO.

In reversal, Air Force wants prototype NGAD engines from both Pratt and GE: Official - Breaking Defense

"[R]ight now with the way we're funded, we think we can carry both [companies] through prototype, and both are leaning in fully. And so then we’ll let the prototype and test do the evaluation,” Air Force propulsion chief John Sneden said.

breakingdefense.com

 

[Meriv90]

UK fighter jet alliance on course for 2035 despite Saudi overture

Riyadh’s request to join trilateral project will not hold up development of next-generation aircraft, BAE executive says

www.ft.com

Japan’s defence ministry said in a statement to the FT that the door was open for the involvement of another country in GCAP, but on condition there would be no delay in the development schedule. It also said Japan would make efforts to strengthen defence ties with Saudi Arabia, which is the country’s biggest oil supplier. The ministry declined to comment on whether Tokyo would support or oppose Saudi involvement.

High risk High reward, Japan is already a new player to cooperate with, adding the Saudi is increasing the risk but also the reward. If we can make it work means no financial problems for GCAP.

 

[John Fedup]

UK fighter jet alliance on course for 2035 despite Saudi overture

Riyadh’s request to join trilateral project will not hold up development of next-generation aircraft, BAE executive says

www.ft.com

High risk High reward, Japan is already a new player to cooperate with, adding the Saudi is increasing the risk but also the reward. If we can make it work means no financial problems for GCAP.

A financial advantage for sure but Saudi Arabia’s long term stability is questionable. There has to be a significant portion of the population that doesn’t appreciate the distribution of oil money and then there is the 50% that likely are even more dissatisfied.

 

[ngatimozart]

A financial advantage for sure but Saudi Arabia’s long term stability is questionable. There has to be a significant portion of the population that doesn’t appreciate the distribution of oil money and then there is the 50% that likely are even more dissatisfied.

I also see the Saudis as a security risk.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

I also see the Saudis as a security risk.

You can invite the Democratic People's Republic of China to join the team.....a partner with an almost unlimited budget....

 

[John Fedup]

A short article about the USN 6th Gen program mentions the big 5 vendors (Boeing, LM, NG, GE, and P&W. Can’t believe DoD will allow the same vendor for both the USAF and USN projects. Assuming LM is the leading contender for the USAF NGAD fighter that leaves Boeing and NG. NG has already said it is not bidding for the airforce project, perhaps an advantage for them but they have the B-21 job. Boeing has experience with naval fighters but NG’s X-47B was an impressive demonstration for a possible loyal wingman option. Boeing’s horrible missteps of late won’t help. NG with GE engines seems like a decent option.

3 US aerospace primes actively facing off for Navy's next-gen strike fighter, F/A-XX - Breaking Defense

The Navy confirms Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman are officially vying for the right to build its next-gen fighter.

breakingdefense.com

 

[Meriv90]

Explain how the Saudis are a security risk. In real terms, since they have already plentiful of Western tech and even Chinese Vectors and Pakistan warheads ready to be delivered in any situation. They are already our weak link in the chain, Japan already depends on their export, what is the sense of blocading them if they can literally stop dead Japan already if they want?

Spectra by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Group

spectra.mhi.com

Japan imports nearly all crude oil it consumes, with oil from Saudi Arabia accounting for about one-third of the total, making it a crucial energy partner. Concerns around supply have become especially heightened recently due to the disruption caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Yes Wahabism is problematic in the west, but as problematic as all the failed states the US created around Israel flooding Europe with refugees.

If we talk of moral standards, then we should also talk about Modi and Gujarat riots(or religious minorities in the country) every time we speak about Indian Rafales or mentioning racial/politic tensions for Indonesia everytime we speak of KF-21

 

[John Fedup]

Explain how the Saudis are a security risk. In real terms, since they have already plentiful of Western tech and even Chinese Vectors and Pakistan warheads ready to be delivered in any situation. They are already our weak link in the chain, Japan already depends on their export, what is the sense of blocading them if they can literally stop dead Japan already if they want?

Spectra by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Group

spectra.mhi.com

Yes Wahabism is problematic in the west, but as problematic as all the failed states the US created around Israel flooding Europe with refugees.

If we talk of moral standards, then we should also talk about Modi and Gujarat riots(or religious minorities in the country) every time we speak about Indian Rafales or mentioning racial/politic tensions for Indonesia everytime we speak of KF-21

There is current technology and then there is state-of-the-art technology (e.g. 6th Gen fighter). Offering the former to an unstable ally (ally isn't really the right term IMO) is one thing but offering the latter could come back and bite you.

 

[Ananda]

Countries like India, Indonesia or Saudi Arabia increasingly want to show both sides (West and Russia-China), that they are independent and don't want to be dictate by either sides/polars. They are part of bigger Global South nations that want to shown path of their own.

However (this I already point on my rare dallies with Indonesian forums), means those countries also need to face consequences of less wilingness of each polars on engaging them with their most cutting edge techs, especially in Defense. This already shown where US wiling to give F-16V or F-15EX to all those three nations, but not F-35 (not yet at least).

If either Euro developer that more likely work with either three above countries (as example), personally I believe it is more likely Frenchie. Especially if their 6th Gen tied up with German bust. India and Indonesia already big Rafale customer, and seems potentially Saudi's too. India also already Rafale M customer, thus natural potential partner for French on 6th gen Carrier base.

I don't also see UK will take Saudi on the expense of Japan. Frenchie more likely, as they are also try to find more capital that are not "dictate" by US.

 

[koxinga]

If the US have reservations selling the F-35 to Saudi... what are the chances that Saudi would be allowed to participate in a 6th gen program? Pretty low, no?

 

[Ananda]

Frenchie is not US. Frenchie so far has track record that willing to work with some countries not high on US list. Which is why some less preference from US choose to work with Frenchie. UK is more likely touting US policy.

Again it is more likely to happen if Frenchie - German 6th gen project busted. Thus Frenchie potentially has to find new partner. Partner can be in Tech or Capital. Taking Saudi as 6th gen partner more likely not base on their Tech, but more on the capital resources. Off course their market.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Countries like India, Indonesia or Saudi Arabia increasingly want to show both sides (West and Russia-China), that they are independent and don't want to be dictate by either sides/polars. They are part of bigger Global South nations that want to shown path of their own.

However (this I already point on my rare dallies with Indonesian forums), means those countries also need to face consequences of less wilingness of each polars on engaging them with their most cutting edge techs, especially in Defense. This already shown where US wiling to give F-16V or F-15EX to all those three nations, but not F-35 (not yet at least).

If either Euro developer that more likely work with either three above countries (as example), personally I believe it is more likely Frenchie. Especially if their 6th Gen tied up with German bust. India and Indonesia already big Rafale customer, and seems potentially Saudi's too. India also already Rafale M customer, thus natural potential partner for French on 6th gen Carrier base.

I don't also see UK will take Saudi on the expense of Japan. Frenchie more likely, as they are also try to find more capital that are not "dictate" by US.

Personally I think its unlikely Saudi-Arabia will choose the Rafale to add to their fleet, they already have the EF2000.

At that time in September 2008, the United States Department of State approved the EF2000 sale, (required because of a certain technology governed by the ITAR process which was incorporated into the Multifunctional Information Distribution System (MIDS) of the Eurofighter) but time changes.