2008-2009 Gaza Conflict: Discussion & Analysis

[wimpymouse]

Pathfinder, I don't know if this is on topic by your definition, if it's not, tell me and I'll delete it.


According to this organization who've had a lot of activists in Palestine for quite some years now, the Israelis are testing new types of ammunition in Gaza. This could be inline with the Israelis directive to give their troops combat experiance for a near future attack on Hizbollah.

BTW, "lågkalibrig" means small caliber.

Israel's army test firing new weapons in the West Bank

January 10, 2009
Ni'lin / West
The Israeli army shooting test new types of weapons against Palestinians in the West Bank.


An Israeli lågkalibrig rifle bullet is one of the weapons tested. Photo: ISM

One of the three new weapons tested is a lågkalibrig rifle bullet. The ball does not concede any sound when it goes through the air and penetrate into the victim's body on the shooter is closer than 50 meters. The purpose of the ball is said to be to give the victim internal bleeding. Seven people have so far been shot with the new ball. One of them hit in the leg where the ball went straight through, another person must have suffered internal bleeding after a bullet hit in the stomach and remained inside the body.

Another weapon tested is a plastic bullet fired by Israeli automatic rifles. Bullets reported include a green colored liquid content. As the green-colored substance made up of, however, is unknown.

The Israeli army is also said to have used a new type of tear gas grenade. Grenade is heavier than before and can reach as far as 400 meters. Grenade detonate until it strikes down, making it difficult to detect in advance. During Mohammed Khawajas funeral in Ni'lin for just over a week ago to be tear gas grenade hit a Palestinian alleged to have broken his leg. The same day is also a family's living room catch fire as a result. People who have been in contact with the ISM describes gas impact of heavier than before, and says it also provokes a strong nausea on a date, never so high.

Test-firing is reported to have continued since the bombing against the Gaza Strip began December 27.

ISM

http://translate.google.com/transla...category=0&id=469&sl=sv&tl=en&history_state0=


What can that green stuff within the bullets be?

 

[Stryker001]

3 day delayed for the ground offensive; with uncertainty if a ground offensive would be, launched.


5 day delay and confusion if Stage 3 had been entered between the Defense Minister and senior commanders. Although the operation is being run on situational reports they are 8 days behind schedule, which means resistance is stronger that expected.

Two key aspects were ignored breaching the Egypt security fence to allow civilians to flee, with air assets circling the area of the breach to with sniper fire to liquidated any foreign fighters or re-supply in was a one way passage for 24 hrs for civilians. Second was the establishment of a tent city behind the lines on Israel soil to allow civilian to be removed from the AO. This is where the SOP ‘Sons of Palestine’ would have been raised to bolster Abu Mazens faction to re-occupy and secure certain sectors of Gaza Strip when the mid intensity operation had been completed. And the beginning phase of dehamasification of Gaza Strip and PA.

350,000 in the tent cities and another 350,000 approximately via the breach in the fence. Now there 1.4 million in Gaza Strip so that would have allowed 700,000 civilians out of the AO, leaving around 700,000 in Gaza Strip able to move out of the Gaza sector, because I would be leveling entire city blocks during (the battle for Gaza city).

Now there are 9 days left for the mid intensity operation to be completed. When they gathered for Dayan funeral you should dropped a JDAM on the massed crowd that would have taken out the majority of Hamas.

 

[Stryker001]

It’s a stalemate at the moment Hamas are using the Australian Regulars tactic to lure the IDF into ambushes (never follow three ARA soldiers that engage you then decamp and lead you into an ambush with interlocking fields of fire) and the IDF are trying to lure the Hamas fighters out into the kill zone. That situation could last for weeks, so the IDF have to go in, because you call the Hamas fighter cowards for not moving into the open, but that will not bring them out. Lets face it after stage one and stage two the area has been softened up enough. 9 days get moving.

 

[Feanor]

Do it, like the second battle for Grozny. Flatten all opposing areas with artillery, then move in with infantry, and direct fire support from MBTs.

 

[Stryker001]

That's why they are telling people to move, however in the alleys of Gaza artillery and Armour APC's, MBT's, bulldozers are not a solution. In response EOD will also have to explode some buildings also, if facing heavy resistance, this is not Mumbia, controlled explosions bring the building down in nice orderly manner.

A lot of high explosive has been smuggled into Gaza Strip, Hamas would have whole buildings wired up to explode, unless they have decided to save it for a rainy day, white phosphorus rainy day perhaps. Drive a tank into a building and the building is likely to come down on top of you, sort of thing.

Once this is over the Rafa border will allow humanitarian aid in but the blockade stays in place and the crossings into Israel will still be closed. Make no mistakes we blame Hamas for this and the people that have had to die because of it.

The blockade stays in place thus Hamas has failed in their objective to have it lifted, has Israel failed to prevent the launching of rockets and mortars, we will have to wait until the battle of Gaza City and the fact that Israel well could be taking a certain area in south between the Gaza/Egypt borders.

This would still be classified as part of OP Cast Lead as ongoing operation to create security in the South.

The prospects are high that the building of a cement wall along that 12.5 km with an Israel operated crossing into the rest of the Southern sector. With the right to conduct aggressive patrolling and counter smuggling operations outside of the buffer zone into the Southern sector. There will not be a UN no fly zone over Gaza, targeted killings will take place against Hamas terrorist leaders, if Israel sees fit.

With in a period rockets and mortar fire in the south of Israel will be minimal, like all contraband, it is not possible to block all logistics of smuggled munitions, but the missile or mortar attack will be considered a statistical irregularity rather than the norm.

Meaning that Israel has met the stated objectives of Cast Lead in the low intensity phase of the ongoing operation, by then the Hamas Government will have fallen and the blockade can be lifted, it has little impact on the northern flank, as the operations in the south will use a minimal force structure.



You Hamas you have lost.

 

[Stryker001]

OK my observation would be you could have until the 27th of January regardless of the UN votes and resolutions that occur, to complete the mid intensity phase of the operation. The 27th but that is the limit.

That’s right Hamas does control the rocket fire, during the lull etc, they were able to get Alan Johnston released from the Dughmush clan of organized criminals that lot.

Remember Qld there is nothing a tactical operators can’t achieve, ‘click you betcha’


Had enough yet Gaza Strip, Army of Islam MumTaz Dughmush...

 

[Durendal]

Israel's main problem seems to be the rocket and mortar fire coming from the Gaza strip.
These are mostly cheap and primitive weapons which can easily be smuggled into the strip and then fired at Israel proper.

I've been wondering , since systems such as Skyguard and Iron Dome are not capable and/or very cost effective in stopping these attacks from the Gaza.
Would it make sense to just build some sort of a large barrier around the Gaza?

I know it sounds odd but I wonder if such a thing could be possible?
Maybe it's even more cost effective then developing expensive systems that currently aren't even capable of intercepting the mortar and rocket attacks coming from the Gaza in a cost effective way.

A system such as Skyguard with it's lasers are $1000-$2000 a shot, a very expensive solution.
Iron Dome cannot intercept the mortars and rockets within the few seconds it has to calculate the trajectory of the mortar or missile, + the cost of the interceptor missiles.

Does anyone know the average flight path and height ceiling of common mortar and missile systems which could be deployed from within the Gaza strip?
Perhaps building a large artificial barrier could stop these systems from ever reaching Israel proper in the first place?

It would probably have to take the form of a gigantic earth wall capable of taking a multitude of explosive charges without collapsing.
But maybe it's utterly fantastical and impossible to realize due to it's cost and scope.

 

[Eburonen]

As stated before Israel has put modest goals forward for winning this war.

The main goal for this war is to win a cease-fire on its terms. This means Isreali's will keep upping the violence until Hamas gives in or until they, the Israeli's, can't withstand international pressure anymore.

There are two goals for this war. One official and one unofficial which is psychologically more important.

The official goal is to put an end to smuggling weapons via the Egypt-Gaza border. The cease-fire agreement will do this by providing more Eu, Amarican or Egytian border guards. This will end or reduce rocket attacs on Israel since the vital parts of these rockets are provided by Iran via these smuggling tunnels. A bonus would be the political weakening of Hamas because they would become impotent.

The unofficial reason is to break the spirit of the Palestinian people once again.
In 2003,
the IDF's chief of staff, Lieutenant General Moshe Ya'alon, said that the war being waged
in the occupied territories would "sear deep into the consciousness of
Palestinians that they are a defeated people"
[http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/07/israelandthepalestinians.lebanon/I]

Hamas does not recognise Israels right to exist. Israel will remind them it does exist, the hard way.

 

[Durendal]

The official goal is to put an end to smuggling weapons via the Egypt-Gaza border. The cease-fire agreement will do this by providing more Eu, Amarican or Egytian border guards. This will end or reduce rocket attacs on Israel since the vital parts of these rockets are provided by Iran via these smuggling tunnels.

What I understand is that Qassam missiles are made from sheet metal Fertilizer melted sugar a cartridge and a nail.
They are made from the most common of components used in a wide variety of ways.
It can't possible be stopped by border guards.

Another possible way i've read to stop high trajectory artillery from the Gaza reaching Israel proper would be to use air ships with some form of barbed netting.

 

[Feanor]

Radar-guided networked AAA should be able to do it, provided you have enough of it.. And it's not really a matter of being cost effective. If Hamas knows that not a single missile will get through, then eventually they will stop firing them.

 

[wimpymouse]

As stated before Israel has put modest goals forward for winning this war.

The main goal for this war is to win a cease-fire on its terms. This means Isreali's will keep upping the violence until Hamas gives in or until they, the Israeli's, can't withstand international pressure anymore.

There are two goals for this war. One official and one unofficial which is psychologically more important.

The official goal is to put an end to smuggling weapons via the Egypt-Gaza border. The cease-fire agreement will do this by providing more Eu, Amarican or Egytian border guards. This will end or reduce rocket attacs on Israel since the vital parts of these rockets are provided by Iran via these smuggling tunnels. A bonus would be the political weakening of Hamas because they would become impotent.

The unofficial reason is to break the spirit of the Palestinian people once again.
In 2003,
the IDF's chief of staff, Lieutenant General Moshe Ya'alon, said that the war being waged
in the occupied territories would "sear deep into the consciousness of
Palestinians that they are a defeated people"
[http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/07/israelandthepalestinians.lebanon/I]

Hamas does not recognise Israels right to exist. Israel will remind them it does exist, the hard way.

Good contribution.

To fix your link you have to delete this part: /I]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/07/israelandthepalestinians.lebanon

Radar-guided networked AAA should be able to do it, provided you have enough of it.. And it's not really a matter of being cost effective. If Hamas knows that not a single missile will get through, then eventually they will stop firing them.

Yeah, should a system like Phalanx or a naval 40mm Bofors AA be able to do the work?

 

[ARI78]

CWS and other solutions

Israel has searched for proper active defense against rockets since "Katyusha" rockets were being shot at Northern Israel by Hezbollah in the 80's. The problem with AAA is that you would have to have A LOT of them, as they are only efficient at ranges of a few miles. Keep in mind that the Hamas owns an arsenal of standard military "Grad" rockets, who have reached as far as 45 km into Israel. Also, placing Vulcan Phalanxes in the outskirts of major cities in Southern Israel is, how should I put it? Bad for tourism? Imaging a bunch of Phalanxes in the outskirts and inside Sand Diego, Miami.... you get the picture.

What Israel needs is something with more range, SkyGourd or Metal Dome style, however they are expensive. So how does a country protect over a million of its citizens from an organization taking on an entire nation with a bunch of AK47s and mostly home made rockets?

The best solution is a political agreement. However, Israel is dealing with Hamas, a group who, in its manifest, denies the right of Israel to exist and declares that any agreement they sign will be only in order for it to achieve its goal: A hard-core Muslim country where Israel stands today: http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/hamas.asp

Israel belives that the only way left is crippling the organization, who is busy growing a new generation of terrorists by airing Mickey Mouse style puppets who are fighting the "Zionistic monsters" and get killed as "Shahids":
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2J3my3pOIc"]YouTube - The Fall of Farfur[/ame]
and holding "Hamas Military Camps".

Contrary to what is often voiced, a military solution does not always produce opposite effects: It was Egypt's failure to beat Israel with their army three times which prompted them to seek a peaceful solution (and indeed getting the Sinai Peninsula, which was conquered by Israel in the 67 war, back as part of the deal). I should also point out that Jordan, who participated in the 48, 67 and 73 wars, signed a peace treaty with Israel despite the fact that the West Bank, which was Jordanian before 67, is still under Israeli control.

As an Israeli, and this is my personal opinion which I believe is relevant to the thread, not attempted propaganda or an official Israeli statement, it seems that only after the Arab countries have lost their belief that the can defeat Israel, is viable peace feasible.

By using tactics such as dropping leaflets, making warning phone calls to Palestinian civilians, allowing a daily humanitarian corridor, and using expensive precise weaponry, Israel, in my opinion, is doing more then any other nation at war has done in the past to minimize collateral damage (Bosnia-Serbia, Russia-Chechnya, Russia-Georgia, US-Iraq, US-Afghanistan, and so on).

Let us not forget that as puny as the Hamas may seem, they are the government elected by the people of Gaza in 2006, and thus the people of Gaza are somewhat responsible for their government's actions.

 

[Eburonen]

What I understand is that Qassam missiles are made from sheet metal Fertilizer melted sugar a cartridge and a nail.
They are made from the most common of components used in a wide variety of ways.
It can't possible be stopped by border guards.

It migth be true that most parts of the rocket are home made but not for the rocket-head which must have been imported because the skills to produce these within gaza are problably not there.


Source for this is: Inside A Gaza Rocket Factory, by CNN's Paula Hancock
http://backspin.typepad.com/backspin/2008/08/inside-a-gaza-r.html
or
via CNN video , title: Inside a Gaza rocket factory
or
http://www.shimshon9.com/inside-a-gaza-rocket-factory/

 

[wimpymouse]

I found an article saying the Israelis planed the invasion during this past summer, and that the reason behind this crisis is......guess what.....

(onlinetranslation)

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Israel planned invasion in the summer


The invasion of Gaza was planned in June. Ultimately about control of the gas outside the Gaza Strip coast. It reveals a Canadian study published last week.

Already in June 2008 Israel planned an attack against Gaza, Haaretz reported December 27.

"Sources in the Defense said that Defense Minister Ehud Barak for over half a year ago ordered the Israeli forces (IDF) to prepare for the operation - while Israel was negotiating a truce with Hamas''

A study conducted by the Canadian Institute Center for Research on Globalization (CRG), published January 8, goes through the background to the invasion. An agreement with a British gas company, British Gas (BG), the extraction of the large gas deposits off the Gaza coast failed in December 2007. Legally the gas belongs to the Palestinians, and the compensation for the gas would be initially paid to the Palestinian Authority. 1999 was an agreement reached between British Gas and the then Palestinian Authority. Israel had since Ariel Shrons comming to power objected to this agreement, and claimed that all the gas belonged to them.

So, something happened - the newly elected Hamas government was isolated, the Palestinian Authority collapsed after bloody street fighting between Fatah and Hamas. The blockade ended with the gas under Israeli control. It looked as if the compensation would be in Israeli hands, with a proposed agreement with British Gas. But Meir Dagan, the head of the Mossad secret service, put an end to it. Income would be the hands of "terrorists", he claimed, according to a Knesset member quoted in the study. BG withdrew from negotiations and closed in January 2008 its office in Tel Aviv.

In June 2008, while planning the invasion was launched, resumed talks with British Gas. It seemed as if Israel was in a hurry to get the agreement ready before the invasion, says the study.

"The negotiations with British Gas was conducted by Ehud Olmert government, aware that a military invasion was on the drawing board. With all sertainty the Israeli government were thinking on a new 'political-territorial' arrangements after the invasion. "

The invasion aimed at transferring control of the Gaza Strip gas to Israel, in violation of international law, concludes report author.

Arash Hakimnia

http://www.yelah.net/news/20090111185721

 

[Todjaeger]

Radar-guided networked AAA should be able to do it, provided you have enough of it.. And it's not really a matter of being cost effective. If Hamas knows that not a single missile will get through, then eventually they will stop firing them.

I have to disagree here...

From what I understand, most of the rockets that Hamas fires into southern Israel from Gaza, and likely a good portion of those fired by Hezbollah into northern Israel are not terribly dissimilar from those the Soviets used in WWII. As such, they are fairly crude, cheap and easy to make. Many, if not all the components can be made in most tool, machine or metalworking shops. I expect the only bombardment weapon which might be easier to manufacture would be mortar systems in the 60mm - 81/82mm range with impact fuzes. With these factors in mind, that the bombardment/AOE systems are cheap and easy to make and therefore relatively common and of course, portable, I do not see a realistically effective way to intercept the incoming rounds and/or missiles.

In order to do so, it would require an integrated IADS system capable of detecting, tracking and targeting potentially large numbers (IIRC some bombardments have been salvoes of up to ~100 rockets) of fairly small rockets or mortar bombs. This system would also need to include some form of weaponry capable of intercepting the incoming rockets, which would likely be a small, rapid response system similar to CIWS found aboard ships. I am thinking of something like RAM or Phalanx, as likely having the best performance against this sort of asymmetric attack. Larger SAM and/or AA systems IMO would not have the saturation capability required to deal with the potential volume of rocket fire.

Unfortunately, for systems like this, it could potentially require a ring of emplacements spaced every 4 km (closer would be better) across all the possible arcs from which rockets could be fired into Israel. IMO this is where such a system gets unrealistic. Taking into account that a system like the M163 (M61 20mm Vulcan cannon mounted in a M113 hull) can fire for ~42 seconds before exhausting its carried ammunition, such an arrangement would likely have significant cost, for IMO rather questionable effectiveness. IMO Hamas or any other group being able to make such rocket attacks, even if they are ineffective from strictly military perspective, would likely still be an effective weapon overall. For one thing, unless/until Israel citizens were completely confident in the system, the attacks would still have a negative impact on the morale of the Israeli citizens. Secondly, given the comparative ease and low cost in which the rockets can be manufactured and used, compared to the significant technical and logistical footprint the anti-rocket IADS would require (and remember, the SAM/AA sites would need to be defended vs. potential sappers, etc...) I see trying to keep a such a system running as unrealistic. By way of illustration, if a system utilizing Stinger SAMs were to be used, Israel could end up using a ~US$76,000 missile to intercept a rocket which might have only cost Hamas (or similar/related groups) perhaps US$100 to make... With numbers like those, I do not consider such a defensive system effective.

-Cheers

 

[Feanor]

From what I understand, most of the rockets that Hamas fires into southern Israel from Gaza, and likely a good portion of those fired by Hezbollah into northern Israel are not terribly dissimilar from those the Soviets used in WWII.

They are often actual Soviet MLRS rockets. Typically Grad, or Uragan.

You might have a point. It depends on what we're trying to protect. If it's just the military bases, it shouldn't be too hard. If it's the entire country.... well.....

 

[fltworthy]

Janes Article

Janes' Defence Weekly has posted an article reviewing the Israeli tactics and objectives during the ongoing operation. A shortened version of the article is available to non-subscribers on-line:
http://www.janes.com/news/defence/triservice/jdw/jdw090109_1_n.shtml

The article makes a few good points:

• As some of our forum members have already observed, the level of coordination between various arms of the Israeli armed forces has been exceptional - in stark contrast to the confusion that reigned in Lebanon in 2006.
  
  
• Like the Lebanon in 2006, however, one of the Israeli's strategic aims during the ongoing operations is to reestablish a degree of deterrence. As most of us are aware, Israel's border with Lebanon has been quiet since 2006. Hezbollah has rearmed, but they have refrained from the kind of regular rocket attacks and kidnapping attempts that had once been the norm.
  
  
• The strategic aims of the ground operation are defined by Janes' analysts as being: "to prevent rocket fire in the area of operation; to eliminate as many Hamas operatives as possible; and to capture Hamas prisoners."
  
  Any prisoners captured would no doubt be used as bargaining chips to gain the release of Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier who has been held captive by Hamas since 2006.

 

[Stryker001]

Israel

OK my observation would be you could have until the 27th of January regardless of the UN votes and resolutions that occur, to complete the mid intensity phase of the operation. The 27th but that is the limit.

That’s right Hamas does control the rocket fire, during the lull etc, they were able to get Alan Johnston released from the Dughmush clan of organized criminals that lot.

Remember Qld there is nothing a tactical operators can’t achieve, ‘click you betcha’


Had enough yet Gaza Strip, Army of Islam Mumtaz Dughmush...

A 10-day holding pattern is fine inside Gaza Strip remain static. That means it is in the time frame of 26th to the 27th depending on what part of the world one is in. Although I would observe that time frame, is fluid and could be extended if contact occurs with Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

Congratulations on a job well done to all involved Mossad, Shin Bet, IDF and the Israeli Government.

 

[Durendal]

Mod edit: Text deleted for violations of the forum rules and the specific requirements in the opening post of this thread. Poster banned for 1 week for making repeated posts along the same theme over a two hour period in this thread.
-Preceptor

 

[Durendal]

Mod edit: Text deleted for violations of the forum rules and the specific requirements in the opening post of this thread. Poster banned for 1 week for making repeated posts along the same theme over a two hour period in this thread.
-Preceptor