Indonesian Aero News

Janes claim to have memo from Indonesia and ROK discussion that talk on acquisition negotiation for 16 KF-21 Blk2. This is the multirole version of KF-21, as Blk1 more on Air Defence variance.

Not clear yet if this 16 will part of 48 commitment on KFX co-op agreement. Personally I sense it depends on how far DI got industrial agreement. If this turn out as part of future fleet of Rafale and KF/IF-21 then it will be relative the better result. Relative considering confussing patern on planning. Perhaps this is by bizare design as the strategy, multiple negotiation with no pattern, but narrowing in the end.

Su-35 contract is open, waiting to find acceptable credit line. However will any FI still want to circumstance US and Euro Market for Russia defence export ? KAAN future deal depends on availability of Turkey own engine (as that the contract from what I heard spesifically put it). While more and more sign shown F-15EX deal will be substitute with Boeing Commercial deals.

Thus so far seems Rafale and KF-21 that got traction. Su-35 being talk only to be procure 8 to augment 8 Su-30 upgraded by Belarussian for Mk2 standard. Thus less then 11 original plan and keep the current Flanker Squadron at 16. This as part of Indonesia difficulty to get enough credit line to properly finance Russian acquisition. 8 Flankers being retired are the ones consider too expensive to upgrade. Even that it is all depend on negotiation on finding Financing with agreable rate. Finance guys so far talk that's what still hold up any payment agreement.

Let's see how this develop.

Last F-16AM (after MLU) doing flight testing. With this all 10 F-16 A/B finish Falcon Star MLU. However plan to conduct upgrade for 23 F-16 C/D toward V standard seems just like plan with F-15EX stay on planning stage. Thus if no upgrade for those C/D, potentially they will be replace sooner than those upgrade AM/BM.

Looking on development, potentially they can be replace by KF/IF-21.

First flight of three Rafale B of first batch, seems ready for delivery flight. Schedule still next month from what I can gather. However there's rumour it can be forward to this month, depends on preparation in Pekanbaru AB as their designated home base.


Looking to what being prepared, the second flight of first batch going to be single seat Rafale C. This in contrary on previous prediction of all first batch of six will be Rafale B.

Ananda said:

Indonesia plans to buy 16 KF-21 Block II fighter jets following new talks with South Korea

Indonesia is reviewing a revised plan to acquire 16 KF-21 Block II fighters as it seeks to stabilize its role in the South Korean-led fighter program.

www.armyrecognition.com

Indonesia looks to revive KF-21 contract with Block 2 acquisition

Indonesia's involvement in South Korea's KF-21 Boramae fighter programme looks set to deepen, with fresh indications that Jakarta may procure 16 Block 2 variants of the...

www.janes.com

Janes claim to have memo from Indonesia and ROK discussion that talk on acquisition negotiation for 16 KF-21 Blk2. This is the multirole version of KF-21, as Blk1 more on Air Defence variance.

Not clear yet if this 16 will part of 48 commitment on KFX co-op agreement. Personally I sense it depends on how far DI got industrial agreement. If this turn out as part of future fleet of Rafale and KF/IF-21 then it will be relative the better result. Relative considering confussing patern on planning. Perhaps this is by bizare design as the strategy, multiple negotiation with no pattern, but narrowing in the end.

Su-35 contract is open, waiting to find acceptable credit line. However will any FI still want to circumstance US and Euro Market for Russia defence export ? KAAN future deal depends on availability of Turkey own engine (as that the contract from what I heard spesifically put it). While more and more sign shown F-15EX deal will be substitute with Boeing Commercial deals.

Thus so far seems Rafale and KF-21 that got traction. Su-35 being talk only to be procure 8 to augment 8 Su-30 upgraded by Belarussian for Mk2 standard. Thus less then 11 original plan and keep the current Flanker Squadron at 16. This as part of Indonesia difficulty to get enough credit line to properly finance Russian acquisition. 8 Flankers being retired are the ones consider too expensive to upgrade. Even that it is all depend on negotiation on finding Financing with agreable rate. Finance guys so far talk that's what still hold up any payment agreement.

Let's see how this develop.

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After more than a decade of uncertainty and political unwillingness from the Indonesian government, i stay skeptical about the participation with the KF-21 program.

In total 2 Su-27SK, 2 Su-30MK, 3 Su-27SKM and 9 Su-30MK2 were delivered to Indonesia. If i'm not wrong the first four Sukhois delivered were upgraded to the same standard as the later ones. So which of these Sukhois are to be retired and why are these considered too expensive to upgrade/get a life extension?

Sandhi Yudha said:

So which of these Sukhois are to be retired and why are these considered too expensive to upgrade/get a life extension?

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Well it is still rumours, but rumours from enthusiats circle, bit's of upgrade info from TNI-AU, and some info from finance guys talk about budget and airframe condition.

The rumours talk due to difficulty on getting parts and financing, the availabilities of the Flankers drop to 25%-30%. Financing difficulties arise not due to budget, but find FI that want to intermediate trade financing for importing the parts and maintenance services. In short it cost more in financing Russian assets this days.

Thus deterioration on Flankers condition means need more budget to revive them all. Thus with potential available financing for both getting new Su-35 and revive plus upgrade Flankers fleet, rumours talk not all existing Flankers will be maintain and upgrade. The noises talk only Su-30 Mk2 will be maintain and all Su-27 phases out with Su-35.

On Financing side it is heard that initial plan for 1 squadron of upgrade 11 Su-30 Mk2 and 1 squadron of 11 Su-35 potentially can not be achieve due to higher costs on financing trade deal with Russia and Belarussia. Thus this is where I heard potentially only 8 Su-30Mk2 can be upgrade with 8 new Su-35.

Again all back to MoF find and negotiate with Financial Market on getting acceptable trade credit financing. This is why I said, even the Su-35 contract still open, it is not guarantee can be finance. Unless MoF want to finance with cash, which something I really really doubt (regardless budget availability).

If you question why still want to keep and financing Russian Asset despite the incresing cost. It is back to 'political' (internal and geopolitics) consideration. Something that I have put in this thread are not black and white answer.

Indonesia Defence Minister visit and negotiation meeting with Aselsan. Put it on this thread as seems big part of what being talk related to Aerial Defences items.

Already circulating since last night, only got time to put this. Indonesia defense budget for next year reach IDR 333.37 Trilion or USD 20+ bio. This mean is first time for decades the budget not only above 1.0% but also closing in on target 1.5% of GDP(projected 1.3% of 2026 GDP).

The budget is different with trade financing allocation to procured assets. As I mentioned years ago, Indonesian budget calculate the financing installement payment. More procurement being finance by credit line, automaticaly the installment budget getting bigger.

More info on KF-21 Blk 2 negotiation between Indonesia and South Korea. The credit line part of ROK export financing scheme. South Korea still work on original agreement for Indonesia comittment of 50 KFX while they are 120 KFX.

Thus this 16 KF/IF-21 being talk as part of Batch 1. They hope just with Dasault Indonesia work out to at least 3 Batches.

Add:
This KF-21 Blk2 is still non existance, let alone Blk3 that being talk already full gen 5 Fighter. KAI already begin work on Blk2, and seems Indonesia negotiate for DI involve with Blk2 workout. The RnD before basically for Blk1, thus it is speculate on why Indonesia reduce RnD Investment and want to put more commitment with Blk 2 industrial program.

Bit good news

The second Rafale C F4 for TNI-AU already on taxi trial. This again confirm the second flight of first batch of 6 will be single seater against double seater from first flight.

Now bit dubious news:

Unlike the preference of TNI-AU study of FA-50 Blk2, this could be the alternative that being talk for LCA replacement. Perhaps this is the alternative from J-10? 40+Fighter in paper reflect the number need to replace Hawk 200/100 population.


Also the talk of unused budget of USD 1.6-1.7 Bio that previously rumours for interim fighters or J-10, in paper can be use for 40 J-17. Considering the cost of J-17 that being market so far.

Well if this is alternative to J-10, in paper PAF are making J-17 more adaptable for both Chinese and Western tech. Perhaps that's the consideration. Pakistan seems getting traction on LCA export market similar to South Korea with FA-50. India so far has such luck with Tejas in export market.

Ananda said:

View attachment 54157View attachment 54158

Bit good news

The second Rafale C F4 for TNI-AU already on taxi trial. This again confirm the second flight of first batch of 6 will be single seater against double seater from first flight.

Now bit dubious news:

Unlike the preference of TNI-AU study of FA-50 Blk2, this could be the alternative that being talk for LCA replacement. Perhaps this is the alternative from J-10? 40+Fighter in paper reflect the number need to replace Hawk 200/100 population.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-indonesia-closing-jets-drones-defence-deal-sources-say-2026-01-12/

Also the talk of unused budget of USD 1.6-1.7 Bio that previously rumours for interim fighters or J-10, in paper can be use for 40 J-17. Considering the cost of J-17 that being market so far.

Well if this is alternative to J-10, in paper PAF are making J-17 more adaptable for both Chinese and Western tech. Perhaps that's the consideration. Pakistan seems getting traction on LCA export market similar to South Korea with FA-50. India so far has such luck with Tejas in export market.

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1. After the chinese CH-4B and Turkish Anka, do we really need another UAV from the same class?
2. The list of candidates of new fighters become worse with the day. At least the J-10B has a similar engine with the Su-27/-30. But i am not waiting for Indonesia getting a Third World Country fighter like the JF-17, a fighter with a limited range not much better than the Hawk Mk.209 and with once again another kind of engine.
3.

India so far has such luck with Tejas in export market.

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Well, India doesn't have that much luck on the export market with the Tejas.

Sandhi Yudha said:

But i am not waiting for Indonesia getting a Third World Country fighter like the JF-17, a fighter with a limited range not much better than the Hawk Mk.209 and with once again another kind of engine.

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This budget seems shown indication to find replacement for Hawk 209/109. Thus the choices seems either FA-50 Blk 20, M-346FA, and this JF-17 Blk 3. The writer of this Reuters article come from Pakistan, thus more likely she got from Pakistani sources.

Indonesia MinDef sources keep low presence on media on this matter. However if they want to replace 40 Hawk 209/109 (now only 28 left), the available budget in paper only can get 40 JF-17. Rumours talk that with Budget of USD 1.6+ Bio, Leonardo offer 24 planes, KAI offer 32 planes.

TNI-AL study shown preference to FA-50 as with much commonalities with TA-50i, that they already use. However as usual in Indonesia at least 3 factors factor in (not in order):

1. Technical valuation,
2. Political consideration,
3. Marketing team lobby.

Frenchie salesman off course always blame #3 if his French/Euro stuff lost or potentially lost toward Turkey or other Non West origin defence items. Quite hilarious as he himself also part of marketing lobby team (and keep denied in media). So local enthusiast online forums now begin to be much influences also by Marketing Lobby public perception battle. This clouding rumours that before usually more straight forward.

So we already see so many Fighters type being shown have strong interest by MinDef, but so far only Rafale and additional TA-50i being paid for effective contract. In the end politics, technical valuation and Marketing Lobby matter, but budget reality will be in my opinion still determining factor.

Their delivery flight is expected to commence soon and the planning is that they will arrive in Indonesia on or around 22 January 2026.

Indonesian Rafales start delivery flight

The delivery flight takes many days, but we now know the arrival date. They will probably arrive in Pekanbaru.

Still there are on media or bloggers that question whether all tranches of 42 Rafale contract in Indonesia already paid or not.

Dasault already confirm all 42 rafale contract divided in to three tranches already effective, thus all 42 already in production pipeline. Means as the financing using credit line, the downpayment already paid by Indonesia and the FI that provide credit line already engage for the rest of financing for the tranches.

The sequence of tranches contracts effectiveness:

• First tranche (6 units): Became effective in September 2022.
• Second tranche (18 units): Became effective in August 2023.
• Third and final tranche (18 units): Became effective on January 8, 2024, bringing the full contract into force.

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As any credit financing the FI will full paid the assets, when the assets already operational. They will not conclude all payments until the assets delivered to customers. That's why only those with financially sufficient OEM that want to engage with credit financing, as they have to prepare their own CAPEX for finishing the products.

Which is why the talk on KAAN order still have problem to find FI to finance, as the Western FI have doubt on TAI having enough own source for CAPEX financing. That's why all Indonesia MinDef Turkish procurement being 'rumours' prepared by UAE related broker, as this broker that find FI (from non western sources) to finance the credit line.

Strait Times claim they got access to Indonesia-US trade negotiation where US want Indonesia to procure US made ISR Drones for survailance in SCS. Currently the drones in Natuna AB facing SCS are Chinese made CH-4.

If this is what US want, then they already drop requairement for F-15EX as part of trade agreement. Still if US give access to Indonesia for MQ-9A, it is big leap for ISR assets.

Ananda said:

Indonesia asked to buy US-made drones for surveillance in waters near South China Sea

The demand, among others, is a condition for lowering reciprocal tariffs, ST has learnt. Read more at straitstimes.com. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

Strait Times claim they got access to Indonesia-US trade negotiation where US want Indonesia to procure US made ISR Drones for survailance in SCS. Currently the drones in Natuna AB facing SCS are Chinese made CH-4.

If this is what US want, then they already drop requairement for F-15EX as part of trade agreement. Still if US give access to Indonesia for MQ-9A, it is big leap for ISR assets.

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One more reason to not buy other UAVs from another new source like Pakistan.

But it is not yet sure that Indonesia is allowed by the US to spend a lot of money on MQ-9A/MQ-9B UAVs. Maybe Indonesia get only permission to buy american UAVs Indonesia already uses, the Insitu ScanEagle, or other lower class of UAVs.

The writer is TNI-AL officer doing study in Australia. What he wrote shown how China and US want to have survailance assets in Indonesia facing LCS or other sea routes. Indonesia off course refuse that, thus they want to work out agreement on procurement survailence assets.

Hope by Indonesia have cooperation in Survailence assets, it is rumours they expect Indonesia also cooperate with the survailance results from time to time. This is why I suspect also Indonesia cooperate with Turkiye on ISTAR assets that being considered middle ground.

Sandhi Yudha said:

But it is not yet sure that Indonesia is allowed by the US to spend a lot of money on MQ-9A/MQ-9B UAVs.

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Trump known want substantial deal in value, so let's see what he want Indonesia to buy. However for sure he will not be satisfied if the Indonesia procurement as part of trade deal is less substantial in value. It is been rumours that instead of Fighters, Indonesia now try to get ISTAR assets from US. This seems in line with what ST article put.

P-8 Poseidon would be a good fit politically and militarily (replacing the 737-200 Surveiller) , for maritime surveillance purpose while a AEW&C type option can be from Turkiye.

koxinga said:

P-8 Poseidon would be a good fit politically and militarily (replacing the 737-200 Surveiller)

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P-8 is the offer that US already for some time put in the table, in fact it is rumours US will give special price if Indonesia willing to also provide stop over host USN P-8 in Natuna.


Trump talk on ISTAR maritime drones, I suspect coincide with Indonesia MinDef reluctance to activate F-15EX offer, and shown tendencies to talk with US on other assets. There're talks on CN 235/295 or Business Jet base MPA or even AEW&C being enhance by fleet of ISTAR equiped MALE UAV. It's consider combo that can provide near P-8 range and endurance, with more economical cost.

Not clear yet tough what kind of ISTAR Drones that US want Indonesia to procure as part of Trade Bargain. However looking on Trump record so far, they always aim for substantial value on trade deals.

Anyway:


Circulating online on IL-76 coming from KAZAN yesterday to Semarang Army Air Base.



This reported that come out. Some speculate this is part of Prabowo's aim to get 200 Helicopter for Disaster Relief and Transports. From what I heard, the Army so far quite happy with Mi-17V performance, eventough they are still want S-70 Blackhawk.

Ananda said:

P-8 is the offer that US already for some time put in the table, in fact it is rumours US will give special price if Indonesia willing to also provide stop over host USN P-8 in Natuna.

Indonesia Menolak Tawaran Amerika Menampung Pesawat Mata-mata P-8 Poseidon

Pemerintah Indonesia mendapat tawaran dari Amerika untuk menyediakan tempat pendaratan dan pengisian bahan bakar untuk pesawat P-8 Poseidon.

www.tempo.co

Trump talk on ISTAR maritime drones, I suspect coincide with Indonesia MinDef reluctance to activate F-15EX offer, and shown tendencies to talk with US on other assets. There're talks on CN 235/295 or Business Jet base MPA or even AEW&C being enhance by fleet of ISTAR equiped MALE UAV. It's consider combo that can provide near P-8 range and endurance, with more economical cost.

Not clear yet tough what kind of ISTAR Drones that US want Indonesia to procure as part of Trade Bargain. However looking on Trump record so far, they always aim for substantial value on trade deals.

Anyway:
View attachment 54172

Circulating online on IL-76 coming from KAZAN yesterday to Semarang Army Air Base.

View attachment 54173

This reported that come out. Some speculate this is part of Prabowo's aim to get 200 Helicopter for Disaster Relief and Transports. From what I heard, the Army so far quite happy with Mi-17V performance, eventough they are still want S-70 Blackhawk.

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Is this the first delivery of this contract?
https://x.com/LembagaKERIS/status/2000912739922010425
The delivery is so fast, i expect this has to be a second hand one.

Here a video from the arrival.
https://x.com/Jatosint/status/2011986260685099084

Sandhi Yudha said:

The delivery is so fast, i expect this has to be a second hand one.

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It is unavoidable when Prabowo administration want to get 200 multipurpose helicopter on fast track, some of it will be second hand, or even dry lease (perhaps with option to buy later on). However I also suspect some of this new Mi-17V will be refurbished or perhaps new stock that perhaps being diverted from previous contract. This as from my understanding Kazan Aero has some previous contracts that being release by the customers due to Ukraine War and CAATSA.

Still all indication shown that this Mi-17V come directly from Kazan city and interesting how Indonesia navigate this with US CAATSA. For one thing it is being paid not using Western Currency or any other credit agreement that using Western dominate financial market.