The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

T.C.P said:

I am sorry but this is the single most non credible rumour I have heard in a while. Capture Koreans? lol. Why bother. The NK troops are in the Kirsk sector and fighting at the front. Some will be captured, it is inevitable.

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Because it’s great propagand.

KipPotapych said:

You don’t have to agree with it, but this what is happening. Bikes, scooters, ATVs are not used due to shortage of equipment (which exists). Ukrainians do the same, we just hardly ever hear about it because, well, for the most part, they hardly ever attack. This isn’t a new tactic either and has been around for a long while now. Ukraine implemented it during their offensive in 2023 as well, though I would probably find it difficult to find videos from back then. They also did the same thing with small groups on foot without heavy equipment support that Russians do and what the social media crowd calls the “meat waves”.

(Edit: here is a freshly posted mechanized assault by the Russian forces, possibly in the same area (or the vicinity) of the modified Bukhanka “assault”: x.com)


While not necessarily likely, it wouldn’t be that farfetched considering other things Ukraine did for PR campaigns.



He other day I read that they are being interrogated using South Koreans. There was also a report that South Koreans were planning to offer them to defect. Whether the latter is true or not, I don’t know, but definitely believable.

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The idea that the Russians send troops on motorbikes, scooters or golf carts because it’s a better way to wage modern war just does not seem plausible to me. sounds like spin. And that video above from feanor sort of demonstrates why.

a question though…can those mines be detonated by rifle fire?

^ You should read what Ukrainians say about it. Analysts too. Also, what’s his name sarge from Saving Private Ryan movie, something along the lines of a few soldiers is an opportunity, while one is a waste of ammunition. Like I said, both sides do it for the same reason.

Modern is a not of stretch, I would say.

I am sure some mines can be detonated (and are) by rifle fire. I saw a few videos showing just that. However, hardly any have the luxury of taking the time. Everything happens fast, otherwise you are dead or mutilated. Hence, bikes, ATVs, etc.

It appears Toretsk is now done. The village of Krymskoe, a de-facto suburb remains contested, but Toretsk proper has fallen. However the road forward here is not clear for further Russian actions. There are still Ukrainian forces in many villages around Toretsk. I suspect we're going to see quite a bit more fighting in the area, before Russia can push out of Toretsk northward or westward. Near Pokrovsk the road west out of the conurbation is cut between Kotlino and Udachnoe along a wide area, with the refuse mound south overlooking it. However Russia needs to cut the E-50 and at least approach the northern routes out of the city to place them within relatively easy drone range before Ukraine starts to have logistical issues.

Meanwhile here's an interesting piece about the war from Big Serge. I think this indicates the direction of the war for Ukraine.

KipPotapych said:

An excellent short thread on X amplifying the strategic significance of Pokrovsk for Ukraine: x.com

For those without an X account (I tried the unroll thing, but it only provides chunks of the posts, so not very useful), here are the briefs:

- Pokrovsk produces most of the coking coal in Ukraine crucial in steel production (separate note, completely unrelated but interesting - the UK shut down one of the big boys today that used coking coal, by the way - a historic event, really);
- currently, the main issue is a severe shortage of electricity expected in the winter and the rates are expected to rise by 20% for the metallurgy sector;
- the metallurgical plants are now operating at 65-75% capacity (the figure remains unchanged from 2023 to 2024);
- when Pokrovsk falls, the plan is to purchase coke from Poland and the US (West Virginia, Virginia, and Kentucky - huge and much needed boost to the economy in those states);
- clear consequences are reduced production of steel and increase in manufacturing costs, which is a blow to the Ukrainian economy overall, but their MIC in particular.

Perhaps, this explains the reports of mines still operating in Pokrovsk and kind of late evacuation of the personnel and supporting staff, which is thousand of people?

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Quoting myself for continuation and the info in the previous post. Now, four months after I made the post quoted above, Ukraine had finally shut down the coking coal mine near Pokrovsk, in Udachne. According to Deepstate, the Russian troops are now actually in Udachne (the leftmost town on the map; Pokrovsk is in the right top corner):



This is another good short article talking about the significance of the coking plant and provides some numbers and the effect of the closure on the Ukrainian steel production and economy:

KipPotapych said:

From the same thread: the article also talks about the Ukrainian troop casualties on the frontline and beyond:

View attachment 51765

A couple of things here. One is, how much “earlier this year” are we talking about? And two, I would think it is safe to assume that the number of permanently departed Russians is likely significantly below 200,000 because the wounded to killed ratio is not at all convincing (almost as if two numbers were taken form two different estimates). But we also discussed that extensively previously with various citations, as well as simple discussion, etc.

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KipPotapych said:

A couple of excerpts from a recent Economist article:

View attachment 51804

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Again quoting myself here for the purpose of information. Both posts are from September with 9 days difference between them. In the first, the claim is made that there are 2 wounded Russian soldiers for each one that was killed. As discussed previously, not very believable ratio, but the article mentions as “high as”, according to western intel or whatever it was. In the second, this ratio is more reasonable, for every soldier killed, there are 4.3 wounded, which is very close (likely nearly identical in reality) to the Ukrainian numbers, also cited.

The reason I bring it back is this info published about the North Korean troops, citing South Korean government:

Around 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed and 2,700 wounded so far in the fight against Ukraine, the South Korean government in Seoul said on Monday.


They are suggesting that there are as many as 9 wounded for every one killed. Something is off somewhere, clearly. Or is it some tactics they use that are different from Russians and Ukrainians? Something else? This is especially suspicious due to the following (from the same article):

“The enemy does not surrender. They eliminate themselves according to the same scheme, a grenade near the head, and go. Those who remain on the battlefield are doused with flammable liquid and burned,” Bondar said in a post on Facebook on Sunday.

Someone is clearly off in their estimates.

@John Fedup, I haven’t cited any sources in my previous post (apologies), but this article also suggests that it is the South Korean intel that is questioning these captured fellas:

The two North Korean fighters captured by Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region on Saturday were taken to Kyiv for medical treatment. The soldiers speak neither English nor Russian, so Ukrainian special services are working with the South Korean spy agency to communicate with them.

The article also confirms what the Ukrainian soldier I cited previously said:

Meanwhile, Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Kursk describe North Koreans — previously dubbed “cannon fodder” that will “defect as soon as they get to fight” — as highly skilled, fearless and motivated infantry.

“They have been blowing themselves up when they see capture is in sight,” Lieutenant Colonel Yaroslav Chepurnyi, a spokesman of the Ukrainian army, told POLITICO on Monday.[…]

Ukrainian soldiers describe the North Korean soldiers as being very far from inexperienced cannon fodder.

“They are young, motivated, physically fit, brave, and good at using small arms. They are also disciplined. They have everything you need for a good infantryman,” Chepurnyi said.

Yuriy Bondar, a Ukrainian soldier with the 80th separate airborne assault brigade, said North Korean soldiers have extremely good physical training and have stable morale.[…]

Bondar also confirmed that the North Koreans possess an extremely high level of mastery of small arms, successfully shooting down “a surprising number” of Ukrainian drones.

“They demonstrate psychological resilience. Imagine, one runs and attracts attention and the other from an ambush shoots down a drone with aimed fire,” Bondar said, claiming that underestimation of the enemy will always lead to a defeat.

“As one commander said, compared to the soldiers of the DPRK, Wagner mercenaries circa 2022 are just children. And I believe him,” Bondar said.


Ukraine keeps transferring specialists from various places to the infantry. The following thread talks about the most recent reports of the engineering and technical personnel from the UAF to be transferred to infantry. 5,000 are (were?) expected to be transferred. A no joke number, surely. In light of public outcry, Zelensky in his address said he ordered UAF commander not to transfer personnel to the infantry. A bunch of sources cited in this thread:



Russian Baza agency released a transcript from the black boxes of the downed Azeri flight, which were decoded and returned to Kazakhstan earlier today:


Whether the transcript is legit or not I do not know. If it is, it is pretty clear that the Russians did not make up the birds theory, as well as the oxygen tanks that may have exploded on board. It is also clear that the pilots were deliberating between Grozny, Minvody, and Makhachkala airports but chose to fly back to Baku and opted for Aktau in the end. It seems, when the missile hit, no one understood what really happened. The pilot reported that they were hit by a bird and that something (“two seats”) exploded. This is at 8:16:05 mark. Later, at 8:52:46 mark, the pilot explained that the oxygen tank exploded, he thinks, and there is not enough oxygen in the fuselage, passengers were passing out, so they needed to decent to a lower altitude (6,000 m should be fine he says), which they were permitted.

The GPS issue was first reported by pilots in the very beginning, on the approach, before the first landing attempt. Time mark is 7:36:57. Their GPS was not working at all. So there was no some extraordinary attempt to “jam the plane into a crash over the sea” or something sinister. Provided the transcript is legit, of course. They talked to Grozny dispatch, Rostov, and Aktau in the transcript provided.

Just a cluster-ef of a situation and someone somewhere “pushed the button”, the act that led to the catastrophic results.

On the subject, today a Russian officer was sentenced to three years in prison for shooting down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter during a supposedly Ukrainian air raid on Crimea on October 18, 2023.


I wonder if anything will happen here with the Azeri flight. I do not believe anyone was charged with anything yet, not that I have seen.

Both of the last two links cited are in Russian, so you will have to use some kind of translate.

Re Russian equipment losses, a fresh post by Janovsky







Source: x.com

KipPotapych said:

Ukrainian soldiers describe the North Korean soldiers as being very far from inexperienced cannon fodder.

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A few weeks or months ago, it was reported that North Korea had sent their elite troops. That makes sens because if Kim Jun Un wants to be respected and get something from Putin, his soldiers should show results on the battle field.
Then, some Russian soldiers were quoted as saying that these soldiers were weak, small and didn't look like good fighters. I think it was a scornful xenophobic reaction, and based on how they looked like. Then sone video showed them (allegedly without any proof whatsoever) walking slowly across open fields. This didn't seem professional.
Yet, they were still elite soldier from the DPRK. Probably much better than new Russian recruits.

Feanor said:

Near Pokrovsk the road west out of the conurbation is cut between Kotlino and Udachnoe along a wide area, with the refuse mound south overlooking it.

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According to Heinrich Torsten, Russians have taken a position on the crossroad between Malinivka and Nova Poltavka, on the road between Pokrovsk and Chaisv Yar.
See the Russian Saliant over the village of Baranivka.
The main south-west north-east loigistical route is either cut or under close fire.
<== Click to enlarge the map.

Fredled said:

A few weeks or months ago, it was reported that North Korea had sent their elite troops. That makes sens because if Kim Jun Un wants to be respected and get something from Putin, his soldiers should show results on the battle field.
Then, some Russian soldiers were quoted as saying that these soldiers were weak, small and didn't look like good fighters. I think it was a scornful xenophobic reaction, and based on how they looked like. Then sone video showed them (allegedly without any proof whatsoever) walking slowly across open fields. This didn't seem professional.
Yet, they were still elite soldier from the DPRK. Probably much better than new Russian recruits.


According to Heinrich Torsten, Russians have taken a position on the crossroad between Malinivka and Nova Poltavka, on the road between Pokrovsk and Chaisv Yar.
See the Russian Saliant over the village of Baranivka.
The main south-west north-east loigistical route is either cut or under close fire.
View attachment 52220<== Click to enlarge the map.View attachment 52219

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I'm curious if that's correct. Russian forces entered that area twice, but were apparently repulsed, or failed to secure it. Per Suriyakmaps they're currently south of there, and the area is no-man's land. Per Kalibrated Russia has it. On a side note, I was referring to the situation west of Pokrovsk.

Also I don't think either of these roads (it's technically the same road passing through the town), was being used as a supply route for some time now. There are other roads in and out of the area, and they've been in easy drone range for a while. With good alternatives available, it wouldn't make sense. I think the real problems for the Pokrovsk area garrison will begin when the roads west and north-west start coming under easy drone strike. And cutting those roads physically will be the end of the fight. And consider just how far east of Mirnograd this crossroad is. I think we're going to see a continuing slow push westward and northward in the Udachnoe and Kotlin areas, while in the east I suspect Russian forces push to the west with only some northward movement. It's why I think we're looking at many more months of this battle.

Fredled said:

A few weeks or months ago, it was reported that North Korea had sent their elite troops. That makes sens because if Kim Jun Un wants to be respected and get something from Putin, his soldiers should show results on the battle field.
Then, some Russian soldiers were quoted as saying that these soldiers were weak, small and didn't look like good fighters. I think it was a scornful xenophobic reaction, and based on how they looked like. Then sone video showed them (allegedly without any proof whatsoever) walking slowly across open fields. This didn't seem professional.
Yet, they were still elite soldier from the DPRK. Probably much better than new Russian recruits.

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Whether they are elite or not remains to be a open question. I have seen claims going both ways from the Ukrainian and western sources. I would think these are professional well trained troops, regardless of their “elite” or otherwise status. Their representation of an average NK soldier remains to be questionable, in my opinion, and it could go either way.

I have not seen Russians claiming weakness and the like about North Koreans (but I do not follow that as closely anymore). In regard to xenophobia, they (Russians) serve together with troops, who are also “Russians”, from Buryatiya, Chukotka, Caucasus, you name it, and those folks look all kinds of ways different from the “Russians” one expects to see on an average day. I don’t think this is it. What I did see, however, was the Ukrainians and the “fans” blasting these fellas in all kinds of negative way: cannon fodder, worse than orcs, almost neanderthals, etc.

“Walking slowly over open fields” and “meat waves” and the like… Here is a good short read on the subject, which was posted in light of a “newly released” hype video (in reality it was already released back in December or even November) of the “meat waves”, as reported by the “fans”:



Velyka Novosilka seems to be in big trouble and it worsens by the day over the past week or two. Ukrainians have lost Vremivka, which may be an indicator of the “days numbered” for Velyka Novosilka:



Source: x.com


Russians took control of the small village of Tykhe east of Vovchansk. It’s a very small village (Wikipedia says a population of 160), it may mean nothing, but may indicate a change of strategy on otherwise stable part of the frontline.



Source is the same as above.


Russians attempted a mechanized assault at the border with Sumy and it was reportedly repelled, a few vehicles destroyed. For the life of me, I cannot find the source I saved earlier. But it happened, haha. Will update if I locate the link (doubt it is a secret though and those following probably saw all about it).


An interesting thing about equipment losses in the Pokrovsk direction. It seems not all that long ago the ratio was 5 Russian pieces of equipment to 1 Ukrainian loss, according to the tracker with the X handle Naalsio26. The difference has been shrinking and it is now about 3.6 to 1 or there about and reaching a reasonable “normal” ratio of the offence/defense type of thing. His last report from earlier today, showing the additions since the last update and the totals:



Source: x.com

A video showing a Russian evacuation plane filled from top to bottom with critically wounded troops. The poster says that these are the ones that can neither be treated in the filed nor in DNR. I am assuming these guys in critical condition are being transported to better/more capable medical facilities in Russia. The poster suggests that 2 out of ten die during the relocation.


Same video on X: x.com


Imagine all the fiberoptic wire from the “wire drones” being all over the place. While the stuff is pretty brittle when bent, it has some good tension strength and must be devastating for the wildlife, etc (when that becomes a concern again, of course). A video of the wire from a few drones laid basically side by side:


Edit: Velyka Novosilka situations is deteriorating further:



Source: x.com