We have had enough of the politics regarding the incident on this forum, if possible I'd like to stick to the thread topic and focus on the Force Protection aspect, and other military related naval discussions.
In that regard, I got to thinking about operations in those waters. There are only hundreds if not thousands of daily life stories describing MSO operations around ABOT and KAAOT, and personally, I have taken the time to review all the military provided data surrounding those waters.
As was pointed out, there were a number of ships operating the area. The question raised is why the Royal Navy sailors and Marines were exposed. I think there are some pretty simple answers, and I think perhaps this is a good forum to showcase some of the possibilities and discuss them in proper context so that we can expand into the strategical question this thread addresses.
I pull this picture from a
Briefing given by the Royal Navy regarding progress around the Iraqi Oil Terminals in March 2006. Notice a few things, namely the borders of Iraq with Iran and Kuwait, but also the water depths in that littoral.
If you look, the red line at the top running north of KAAOT is the Iranian/Iraqi border. Also shown on the bottom right of the map is the patrol zone that extends into International Waters under the UN mandate. That patrol zone is described in the Royal Navy briefing linked above as:
In 2006, the port of Um Qasr averaged 8 ships per day, while the port of Az Zubayr averaged about 20 ships. I have been unable to find the average number of tankers entering each offshore oil terminal per day, but going off what is known about the terminals and output of Iraqi oil, the number would be somewhere around 6+ per day. This excludes large ships in the area with destinations to Kuwait or Iran, and doesn't even begin to count the fishery industry of Iran, Kuwait, or Iraq and the hundreds of boats that would include. Needless to say, when it comes to ships big and small, there is plenty of work for the handful of ships in TF58.
Now compare the above with the picture released by the MoD during the recent Hostage Crisis.
Based on the coordinates of KAAOT, and the coordinates provided by the British during the seizure, and the news report that the HMS Cornwall was in a position somewhere between KAAOT and ABOT, it looks like it was probably just to the south of KAAOT. It is a really good bet the USS Howard (DDG 83) and the HMAS Warramunga (FFG 152) were also very close to the terminals.
Considering the PCs and the USCG ships are instructed to search ships, from a tactical perspective it is probable those 4 ships would extend out into international waters, or patrol the 2 specific ports themselves.
Now we have to also apply our naval knowledge to this scenario.
Between the USS Howard (DDG 83), HMAS Warramunga (FFG 152), and HMS Cornwall (F 99) there are 4 helicopters. Anyone familiar with maintenance of helicopters during continuous operations, that leaves 1 helicopter used for operations, and 0 available for support, and that is assuming efficiency in the maintenance cycles. It is possible on some days you could have a second helicopter up and available, but it could not be counted on as a certainty, and the availability of all 4 is only considered by those with no understanding of how things work.
So basically you are left with 1 destroyer, 2 frigates, 2 US PCs, and 2 USCG ships with 4 helicopters combined patrolling an area that includes around 30-35 large new arrivals per day, 2 critical oil terminals, and hundreds of smaller boats throughout the area, including every Iraqi fishery vessel and a large number of Kuwaiti and Iranian fishery vessels. Even with fixed wing air support, the task is enormous.
Comments welcome. I'll share my thoughts later.