Moderated taiwan invasion war game

[Waylander]

Excellent posts of you three.

Everytime we have this theme people tend to forget these important facts.
Remember the discussion in another thread?
The answer was always that airborn infantry is going to capture an airport and the marines a port, hold it under constant arti fire and mech counterassaults and keep it running with high turnovers.

Enemy artillery is dealt with by PLAA and PLAN and enemy mech forces are stopped by light infantry with HMGs, ATGMs and amphibious/airdroppable tanks. :crazy

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

The answer was always that airborn infantry is going to capture an airport and the marines a port, hold it under constant arti fire and mech counterassaults and keep it running with high turnovers.

Enemy artillery is dealt with by PLAA and PLAN and enemy mech forces are stopped by light infantry with HMGs, ATGMs and amphibious/airdroppable tanks. :crazy

Waylander, you're also forgetting that the Taiwanese people will welcome their "liberators", turn on their evil elected government and overpower any members of the Taiwanese armed forces that do not join in the revolution.
nfloorl:

 

[Waylander]

Ah yes, ho could I forget such a vital part of the plan...

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

i completely missed all of that boys, your exactly right. Taiwan doesent stand a chance.:lol3

 

[eckherl]

So it really does look like a bridge too far for China and for them to achieve that goal they are maybe twenty years out before they can even think of it and even then there will be massive casualties from both sides, both economies will be utterly ruined and world opinion will turn against China. It looks like the sword rattling will continue for a very long time.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

It looks like the sword rattling will continue for a very long time.

Hopefully China will stop that and talk with whoever wins the 2008 election, rather than insist everyone sign up to the one-China principle first.

 

[Rich]

That was because no one believed they could slip past the Royal Navy - transport capabilities were less of an issue.

Also the Germans only used five divisions and two regiments for the invasion, with no serious need for armour. Then there was Norway's lack of naval and airpower. There is absolutely no way Taiwan would be such an easy target for China.

Weserubung wasnt all that much a secret. Brit. Intelligence at the time was world class and the Norwegians feared the attack for weeks. It wasnt that "nobody" believed they could slip past the Royal navy ; It was that the "Royal Navy" didn't believe anyone would try such a move without complete assurance of controlling the sea lanes in the area.

Its also important to remember that in order to secure Weserubung Hitler deployed every available combat ship in the German navy. At the time it was the largest seaborne invasion in history. Hitler was the ultimate gambler and the Brits fumbled the ball badly with their response.

And If I remember right there was almost no resistance to the German army groups landing in Norway. I guess the Norwegians preferred being alive to being free.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

And If I remember right there was almost no resistance to the German army groups landing in Norway. I guess the Norwegians preferred being alive to being free.

Rich the Norweigans did fight. But they had a game-plan that didn't work because they were outmanoeuvred. They did actually beat off at least one attack all by themselves.

 

[Rich]

Rich the Norweigans did fight. But they had a game-plan that didn't work because they were outmanoeuvred. They did actually beat off at least one attack all by themselves.

OK, if you say so. Its been a long time since I studied Weserubung. I do seem to remember 3 or 4 German invasion groups with one of them having to fight their way in. If I also remember right the Germans were lucky in that a large Brit. task force miscalculated where the heavy platforms of the German navy were headed. When I get some time I'm going to look at Weserubung again in detail

Thank you.

 

[Rich]

I think also its important to acknowledge that things can change in the Taiwan straight at least during our lifetimes. 20 years is a long time to get your act together. The Chinese are certainly serious about improving their capabilities. The real problem is they have so much of it to do, in all their services, and across the entire spectrum of their capabilities.

20 years from now we may see 2 or 3 modern carrier groups in their navy. We may see their amphib platforms tripled, their marine forces much larger, their Intel/communications/space assets much larger and better.

I see Taiwan's military capabilities becoming rather static in comparison. We seem to be selling them "just enough" instead of "more then enough" in both platforms/systems and quality of platforms/systems.

Does anyone doubt China is intent on establishing regional hegemony? I dont! But what China needs more then anything right now is peace. Peace to prosper, get strong, secure fuel supplies, and upgrade their society. When you look at the big picture the chances of attacking Taiwan is rather low. All that could change in an instant if the Taiwanese declare Independence. Which is certainly their right, but would hardly improve their security situation or International relations.

Sometimes being "smart" is better then being "right".

 

[hallo84]

I calculated it myself by using the numbers of ships in service with the PLAN and their capacity - from Sinodefence.com. I then found that Globaldefence.com had the 10,000 figure too.

may be you had your figures wrong.
I don't know how you calculated but you figures eems to be way off. Maybe you are using bad sources for tallying ship numbers. Sinodefence hardly has the complete TOE of PLAN and PLA transport assets.

China-defense.com had a report by compiled by xinhui in 1999 that calculated capcity then of 100,000 men and some 500 vehicles. Which I believe was inline with Office of Naval intel estimite.

In a predicted turn around rate of 48 Hr potentially China could establish a beach head with marines and transport half a million troops in a time frame of less than a week.

If a joint assult with para troops or heli insertion as shown in recent exercises then the first strike number could potentially increase by 10% to 30%. For rapid action PLA was reported to be able to heli insert a regiment worth of troops and equipement as shown in the 155th light mechanized regiment. ie PLA comment it can commit 400 helos to any operation. 15th Airborne Corps will also suppy a bulk of the light assult that includes airdrop of a division in 48Hr.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

China-defense.com had a report by compiled by xinhui in 1999 that calculated capcity then of 100,000 men and some 500 vehicles. Which I believe was inline with Office of Naval intel estimite.

I've found an article on that website, which is much more updated than 1999.

http://www.china-defense.com/naval/plaas/plaas_3.html

There seems to be a dispute over ships available. For example xinhui says there are 300 Type-67s. Though that seems to be true, from what I understand most aren't in service. If they're being stored well, maybe they could be put to use. But they are slow and vulnerable with limited endurance.

Same applies to the Type-68s.

What's the "Type 273" - I can't find any information on it.

Even so it still only says 53,000 personnel (though has just over 840 tanks). Then you have to remember that nearly half of those numbers would be sent over on slow, virtually undefended tin-cans. That's assuming they'd all be in working condition at the time as well. And of course this all assumes nothing gets sunk on the way over.

 

[Manfred]

100,000 sounds more likely, but still suspiciously low.

I find it hard to believe that China has made so little progress on a 60-year-old tactical problem. It does not sound like they are serious, if we believe the official reports.

My primary contention is that a large percentage of the Chinese merchant fleet was BUILT with a secondary (military) pupose in mind. This would include ramps or other hull openings that were caulked and painted over to hide the true purpose, or even the existance, of these modifications.

Also; why is it so hard to believe that the world's largest air-force can cover the movement of the world's second largest navy? Are all PLA weapon systems automaticaly assumed to be inferior to Taiwan's equipment?

When 160,000 Allied soldiers hit the coast of France, where 1 million Germans were waiting for them, they did not fail. They had the best artillery on Earth backing them up; the RAF Bomber command and the US 8th Air Force. Even the most obsolete fighters in the PLA can conduct ground-attack functions. (Yeah, I know Taiwan is smaller than France, so save it)

 

[Grand Danois]

I've found an article on that website, which is much more updated than 1999.

http://www.china-defense.com/naval/plaas/plaas_3.html

There seems to be a dispute over ships available. For example xinhui says there are 300 Type-67s. Though that seems to be true, from what I understand most aren't in service. If they're being stored well, maybe they could be put to use. But they are slow and vulnerable with limited endurance.

Same applies to the Type-68s.

What's the "Type 273" - I can't find any information on it.

Even so it still only says 53,000 personnel (though has just over 840 tanks). Then you have to remember that nearly half of those numbers would be sent over on slow, virtually undefended tin-cans. That's assuming they'd all be in working condition at the time as well. And of course this all assumes nothing gets sunk on the way over.

Not disputing what you said, but did some research myself into to the two mentioned types.

Type 67 and Type 68 account for 25,500 of those 53,220 troops. And that assumes 100% availability rates.

Type 67:
The Yunnan class Landing Craft Medium was first built in 1964 and continued until 1972. A total of about 280 were actually produced. Around 40 are believed to still be in service with another 200 being stored in reserve.

Propulsion 2 diesels; 600 total hp
Length 28.6 meters
Beam 5.4 m
Draft 1.4 meters
Displacement 128 tons
Speed 12 knots
Crew 10
# Armament 4 x dual 14.5mm machine guns
# Capacity 1 tank or 2 vehicles, or 46 tons of cargo

Type 68
Propulsion 2 Type 3D6 diesels; 300 total bhp; 2 shafts
Length 80 ft 4 in (24.5 m) overall
Beam 17 ft 7 in ( 5.4 m)
Draft 3 ft 9 in ( 1.2 m) maximum
Displacement 35 tons light, 93 tons full load
Endurance 450 miles at 11 knots
Speed 10 knots
Crew 3 max. total
# Armament 4 x 14.5mm machine gun

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/navy.htm

In other words small, flimsy, old (35+ yrs) and slow (10-12 kts) landing craft going open ocean, average crossing perhaps 120+ nm in open sea, towards a contested amphibeous assault. And 100% availability.

No way.

They are not going to arrive in an organised manner. They have low survivability, due to age and speed. Small packets of delivery ensures chaos at the beach head. Assault troops will be sick and fatigued after a 12 hr voyage in 35-128 ton vessels crossing open ocean. Risk of breakdowns due to old equipment.

These vessels are out.

And forget about civilian sealift for assault jobs.

 

[Grand Danois]

My primary contention is that a large percentage of the Chinese merchant fleet was BUILT with a secondary (military) pupose in mind. This would include ramps or other hull openings that were caulked and painted over to hide the true purpose, or even the existance, of these modifications.

Well, novel. But using civilians - even secretly modified - is a guaranteed disaster.

Also; why is it so hard to believe that the world's largest air-force can cover the movement of the world's second largest navy? Are all PLA weapon systems automaticaly assumed to be inferior to Taiwan's equipment?

How many of those aircraft have a useful operational range against Taiwan. And what are their availability over the first week. That, and attrition will make sortie rates drop like a rock after the first days.

 

[Manfred]

And forget about civilian sealift for assault jobs.
Why? Does China have a history of not being resourceful, or of rigidly seperating military from civilian assets?

http://www.china-defense.com/naval/plaas/plaas_1.html

53,220 men, and 848 tanks, sounds more likely than 10,000, and a good toe-hold with room to spare. That is 2 mechanized divisions, 3 Infantry Divisions and maybe a Marine Regiment, if they leave their "tail" behind.
Now all I need is a way to drop 10,000 paratroopers, twice.

Why do some people assume that any ships China puts into storage are allowed to fall apart? Is China so flush with equipment that they just toos it aside and let it rot?nfloorl:

The mistake I mentioned before is creeping in; assuming that other people think the same way you do.

 

[Grand Danois]

And forget about civilian sealift for assault jobs.
Why? Does China have a history of not being resourceful, or of rigidly seperating military from civilian assets?

http://www.china-defense.com/naval/plaas/plaas_1.html

Other resourceful nations have had a look at this, tested it, and found it was suicide. But, hey! The PRC is different.

It is an internet idea.

Now all I need is a way to drop 10,000 paratroopers, twice.

For that you need to take out the Taiwanese IADS in detail. If not, they will get shot out of the air. Also, they have low endurance, are lightly armed and supplied. It's a no go. They'll get crushed in short order.

Why do some people assume that any ships China puts into storage are allowed to fall apart? Is China so flush with equipment that they just toos it aside and let it rot?nfloorl:

The mistake I mentioned before is creeping in; assuming that other people think the same way you do.

If you take a look, you'll notice that maintenance was on the bottom of the list:

"They are not going to arrive in an organised manner. They have low survivability, due to age and speed. Small packets of delivery ensures chaos at the beach head. Assault troops will be sick and fatigued after a 12 hr voyage in 35-128 ton vessels crossing open ocean. Risk of breakdowns due to old equipment."

It is the least of the issues these vessels have.

 

[Manfred]

I don't understand, why are you saying that civilian ships trun into pumpkins in a war zone?

How many of those aircraft have a useful operational range against Taiwan. And what are their availability over the first week. That, and attrition will make sortie rates drop like a rock after the first days.[/QUOTE]

However, as many folks will agree, the first 48 hours are the critical ones.

Personaly, my biggest doubts about China pulling this off have nothing to do with assets, but in the management of those assets.

In order to pull this off, the PLAN and Air Force would have to pull off a virtuosso preformace of traffic control. THey have never done so, as far as I am aware. Computer simulations can go a long way towards organizing an effort like this, but not preparing the controlers for all the stress that will hit them WHEN something goes wrong.

Reliable satelite imaging will be even more crucial for the Chinese watching thier own men than it will be for Taiwan. God only knows what might happen... but this makes me more interested than ever in gaming this scenario!

 

[Manfred]

Oh, yes, those little boats will have a hard time, but I would not use them loaded to cros the strait. I would have them cross empty, and take on troops from (gasp!) civilian conversions, even with net-laders over the side, like in the old days. Those ships could have enough troops on them to keep the little boats busy for hours, with several times the number of troops on board that the little landing craft could have manged on thier own.

Total supression of ALL Anti-Aircraft, on the entire Island... just to land one division of Paratroopers?
Nope, just in the areas selected for landing. In my book, that would occure at the same time as a "free hunt" involving 500+ fighters, operating against any and all targets of oppotunity for 30-45 minutes.
This would be after a day of raids, and take place at dusk, as stated earlier.

 

[Grand Danois]

Oh, yes, those little boats will have a hard time, but I would not use them loaded to cros the strait. I would have them cross empty, and take on troops from (gasp!) civilian conversions, even with net-laders over the side, like in the old days. Those ships could have enough troops on them to keep the little boats busy for hours, with several times the number of troops on board that the little landing craft could have manged on thier own.

That would be the best use. Though, they're still out of the above count when used this way. But no vehicles. And still the issue with the civvies.

Total supression of ALL Anti-Aircraft, on the entire Island... just to land one division of Paratroopers?
Nope, just in the areas selected for landing. In my book, that would occure at the same time as a "free hunt" involving 500+ fighters, operating against any and all targets of oppotunity for 30-45 minutes.
This would be after a day of raids, and take place at dusk, as stated earlier.

The PRC has 500 attack aircraft. That means you assemble every appropriate attack fighter the PRC has and put 100% of them in the air above Taiwan, inside an hour, assuming no attrition from the heavy fighting the previous day(s), and 100% availability.

It also means you'll do no suppression and harrasment of the Taiwanese IADS in the hours preceding the air assault and no air support in the hours afterwards.

Just to see the surviving PLA paratroopers being run over by mech forces in one or two days.

A MANPAD like Stinger or one of the 47 Avengers should be enough to take a paradrop transport down.