You talk as if those big slow transports don't have air defense around them.
But anyhow, I don't see why China can't achieve complete air supremacy or that it can't suppress air defence in Taiwan.
Moderated taiwan invasion war game
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But anyhow, I don't see why China can't achieve complete air supremacy or that it can't suppress air defence in Taiwan.
Ozzy Blizzard
New Member
While achieving suprise? that was the situation outlined. A suprise airbourne assault. And those big slow transports wouldn't last two minets in a missile saturated environment. Sure at some point china would have something close to air superiority, providing there is no intervention by the USAF, but by that time Taiwan would be nearing complete mobilization and i wouldn't want to be in an airbourne assault in that situation, even if your air corridor was close to secure.
has anyone paid attention to the issue of when the last successful amphibious or airborne invasion was conducted?
anyone wondered when the last opposed entry was achieved? - and why force structures are not geared for it?
nobody but a lunatic is going to conduct an airborne invasion without decapitating opposing comms centres and conducting absolute SEAD first.
it doesn't make sense and it defies historical lessons.
even in examples of absolute air supremacy, amphibious landings were never a given, and an airborne insertion is a small window of opportunity. without follow through from heavier forces (and they need to be inserted by sea), those light forces will suffer.
the reality of how this occurs is very different from a computer game.
anyone wondered when the last opposed entry was achieved? - and why force structures are not geared for it?
nobody but a lunatic is going to conduct an airborne invasion without decapitating opposing comms centres and conducting absolute SEAD first.
it doesn't make sense and it defies historical lessons.
even in examples of absolute air supremacy, amphibious landings were never a given, and an airborne insertion is a small window of opportunity. without follow through from heavier forces (and they need to be inserted by sea), those light forces will suffer.
the reality of how this occurs is very different from a computer game.
I think a few things would have to happen before the PRC would be so bold as to make a play for ROC.
1/ Prevention of US intervention, this would be by diplomatic means
preferably.
2/ Participation, or at least acquiesce of a least part of the ROC
political/military structure.
3/ Rapid decapitation of remaining political leadership.
Then maybe.....
1/ Prevention of US intervention, this would be by diplomatic means
preferably.
2/ Participation, or at least acquiesce of a least part of the ROC
political/military structure.
3/ Rapid decapitation of remaining political leadership.
Then maybe.....
Schumacher
New Member
Very good points. I think it sums up the thinking of PRC very well.
PRC will work for #1 with combination of economic, diplomatic, military threats etc.
#2, if any ROC leaders makes the rash decision to declare independence, PRC will definitely try to exploit the ensuing divisions in ROC military, politics & populations.
In fact, #3 has long been discussed in many circles as one of the first few things PRC will try in any conflict either thru agents in ROC or precision strikes. Chen is said to be genuinely concerned about a decapitation strike & has made specific security arrangements to avoid this.
Aye discussing this in purely militatry terms wont give a realistic picture of overall PRC stragey, or chances of success.
Their military build up does not point to invasion, it does point to an across the board upgrading of the PRC's ability to project power. It is with this growing military strenght(while not a direct threat to the USN), coupled with economic and diplomatic clought that the PRC will seek to neutralise the US, rather than any direct trial of strenght. At the moment it would be very easy for the USN to force the PRC to fight on its terms.
As I see it, it will be the culmitive effect of the growth of PRC power that will force the US in to an revision of its stance on Tiawan, not the threat of the PLA alone.
I think removing the US from the equation is the key enabler for the PRC.
If they do accomplish this (as unlightly as this seems at the present time), the reabsorbsion of the ROC into mainland China would only be a matter of time.
Their military build up does not point to invasion, it does point to an across the board upgrading of the PRC's ability to project power. It is with this growing military strenght(while not a direct threat to the USN), coupled with economic and diplomatic clought that the PRC will seek to neutralise the US, rather than any direct trial of strenght. At the moment it would be very easy for the USN to force the PRC to fight on its terms.
As I see it, it will be the culmitive effect of the growth of PRC power that will force the US in to an revision of its stance on Tiawan, not the threat of the PLA alone.
I think removing the US from the equation is the key enabler for the PRC.
If they do accomplish this (as unlightly as this seems at the present time), the reabsorbsion of the ROC into mainland China would only be a matter of time.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
That would have to assume a military solution. Unless China were to offer Taiwan essentially a face-saving exercise for Beijing, the Taiwanese people would not accept a deal that decreased their rights and independence. The most China can hope for is Taiwan closing its remaining official embassies and not push for UN membership, while modifying the Constitution to say it is part of "China", whatever that is. But it would not give up:
Its trade missions.
Its right to sign trade deals with other countries.
Its judicial independence.
Its political independence.
Its military independence.
It would essentially be an affirmation of what is already the case. If China is happy with that then there won't be a problem. However, if it wants to have real control over Taiwan it will be sorely disappointed. It wouldn't matter how long it waited, because the way the Taiwanese political system is set up would make it impossible for the Pan-Blues to make a deal with China that was unacceptable to the Pan-Greens.
Grand Danois
Entertainer
I agree with you on a platform vs platform level - that's why I immediately agreed that surface ROCN units would play little part in the direct battle in our previous discussion. Simply because it will get swept away. This is also the reason why I qualified with a "if used properly."
I have a rudimentary picture of the ROCN on the unit level, but my impression is that ROCN is not intended for fighting direct battles or anti invasion battles.
It is an anti blockade navy. In case of an actual all out war, it would be assigned to shaping the battlespace east of Taiwan, preparing the battlefield for the arrival of the USN CSFs.
That's how I would use the ROCN in any case.
As to the SEAD part - I consider that is up for a discussion.
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As far as an airbourne invasion is concerned...it may be usefull as part of a deception plan,with a phoney beachhead being established with a phoney maritime fleet made up of a mix of merchant and military assets,Taiwan would have to deploy some forces to oppose it...but really it would be just a nuicance,and add some confusion. And probably sacrificial!
Could be a big call to ignore it...or they will have an alternate beach head.the fake USMC invasion landing worked for GW1.
Peoples army have the assets to to have a Tom,dick and harry so to speak.
Schumacher
New Member
'...wouldn't matter how long it waited....'
'...make it impossible .....'
U do seem very sure of yourself, using absolute terms liberally. More sure I might add than perhaps PRC & ROC themselves.
Yes I would agree at the present time it would be ludicious to imagine the ROC giving up its independence for the rather dubious benifts of the PRC.
But without the protection of the USN the ROC would lose its trump card, with the USN it could not lose in a military conflict, without it it is a very real possiblity. That new reality might have an effect on what is deemed possible and impossible in Tiawans politcal system.
And althought this is conjecture, I hope that by the time any sanario such as the above comes to pass, the PRC would have become more open politically themselves (as I think they must if they are to survive there industrialisation)
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
Schumacher, you have this tendency to ignore what people are saying generally and pick on little tiny bits.
The Taiwanese Constitution does make it impossible for one side to change it without the other's consent. You need 75% of the members of the legislative yuan to agree to a change before it can even be put to a referendum. And it is simply not credible to believe either side is going to win that number of seats.
Then you have the fact you need over 50% of the population to agree with it with 50%+ voting on the matter.
Besides, if people can say "it is only a matter of time until Taiwan comes back to China", I can say "China can wait as long as it wants - Taiwan isn't going to hand over its freedoms or agree to unreasonable demands".
It could have an effect on what direction Taiwan would take, but given it already has that independence from China there would still be no reason to give in to unreasonable Chinese demands.
This is all a bit academic really because nothing is going to change until after the 2008 elections. Then, hopefully, China will actually negotiate with however wins.
I dont see the PRC sacrificing its elite airborne troops like that. Very bad for morale, first off, and in the modern age they could never keep it secret from the rest of their army like they could in Korea. Secondly there is just no point in sending your best troops to slaughter just for deception. It would make more sense to insert small cadres of saboteurs to raise hell behind the lines and tie up 10 x their number in enemy looking for them. But any airborne op wouldn't make any sense unless a airfield or port was the eventual target. Remember the end game objective of Overlord was a deep water port.
It would be interesting to discuss the resources needed for this op. This is what was available for Overlord, Land Forces—2l U.S. divisions (13 Infantry, 6 Armored, and 2 Airborne), 17 British divisions (l0 Infantry, 5 Armored, and 2 Airborne) and supporting troops of both Forces.
Air Forces—331 U.S. Squadrons (214 in Eighth [Strategic] Air Force, and 117 in Ninth [Tactical] Air Force) and 220 British Squadrons. Figures for each Air Force include squadrons of all types.*
Gasoline figures for allied vehicles alone were estimated at 5,000 tons per day and by D-day+5 the plan was for 29,562 vehicle to be off-loaded and 200,000 allied troops. Obviously these figures weren't met but it gives you some indication of the scope of such a amphib attack.
And 78 years later due to the precision and power of modern weapons such numbers no doubt wouldn't be necessary but the fact remains the Chinese would have to not only attack with a huge, rolling amphibious force, but would also have to supply it with a vast floating supply chain. Assets, btw, I doubt they have. Sure seizing a port would help but like the Germans in '44 I doubt the Taiwanese would leave a functioning port to the enemy.
More problems for the PLAN? Taiwan has a pretty good home made anti-ship missile called The Hsiung Feng IIE. It has good range, a 500 lb class warhead, is fairly stealthy, has a GPS capable guidance package, and can be launched from trucks. And they have at least 500 of them, this missile can also be aimed at land targets.
When I look at the big picture I must say however I dont see a whole lot of evidence for Chinese preparation for the Normandy type mass amphib OP. I would guess it would start with a massive bombardment of Taiwanese centers of power/military targets/communications by BMs, fighter bombers, and warships. At the same time I think they would launch one really big air assault aimed at getting an airfield, a port, and probably both. I think the Chinese watched Americas shock and awe campaigns very closely and they learned from them.
Such an OP would be far easier then the massive Normandy scenario. It would be far easier to hide somewhat as well, under cover of exercise. Even more important would be the goal to get a quick victory before America intervened. The Chinese appear to be arming for such a high tech limited operation, not the Overlord scenario.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
I think there's some confusion over this due to poor media reporting. The HF-IIE is, from what I understand, designed to attack land-targets (e.g. Chinese radar installations). It is not designed to be used against shipping - that's reserved for the HF-III, which also will be made mobile on land.
Taiwan does not have at least 500 of either the HF-IIE or HF-III. Taiwan hopes to have 50 by of the former 2010, ending up with 500. The HF-III has (supposedly) recently entered production, but is not nearly that numerous yet.
My mistake. Your right that the "500" is for the eventual production run. Thanks.
Just to be clear, I don't disagree with any of that.
on top of what is already mentionned. HF-2E is a LACM, not a AShM. They claim to be able to reach Shanghai, but I personally have my doubts that they can get through China's multilevel air defense.
The one that ROCN seems to be quite excited about is HF-3, which seems to be an extremely capable anti-ship missile in terms of range and speed. Many taiwanese think it will be their main threat to PLAN fleet in the coming years.
Sensors are one thing, and are only worth the same as the weapons that they are guiding. Have you been keeping up with all the Chinese espionage cases in the US in the last few years? They are entirely focused on technology. Any idea how many spies succeded in relation to the number that were caught?
My background; US Marine Corps, Helecopter transport, amphibious assaults & NBC warfare, with some logistics.
I decided to go into combat arms, HQMC said no, they had spent too much money training me in the Air Wing. I said fine. When My time was up, I went straight to the Army and became a Scout, saw combat in the First Gulf War (4/7 Cav. 3rd A.D.) and elsewhere.
How about you?
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So many people who know thier stuff here... I hate to take the game elsewhere. THat's all it is, a game to see if it is possible, btw.
Musashi; you seem to know the area and somewhat neutral, would you like to moderate this one?
I seem to have plenty of opponents, would anyone like to help me with the PLA?
Musashi; you seem to know the area and somewhat neutral, would you like to moderate this one?
I seem to have plenty of opponents, would anyone like to help me with the PLA?
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