Ive been watching this thread with interest, and learning instead of posting. At this point I would have to say "yes" the RAN is inadequate for the full range of possible missions it could be called upon to do. There is a significant lack of assets in refueling and resupply, a significant lack of assets needed for amphibious operations, and an inability to provide air cover outside the range of Land based air.
Surface ship-wise the RAN is also lacking. The Adelaide's are a nice design but with the upgrade program you are robbing Mary to pay Paul. 4 of these ships are simply not enough. The Anzacs too. This modernization program is certainly welcome but it should have been done years ago. The air defense DDs will be welcome but their keels haven't even been laid down yet, correct? And there are no plans for Tomahawk on any RAN platforms. Nor are there plans for F-35 VTOL even if you will have the LHDs to operate them on. It appears that even in the future the strike power of the RAN will be very Limited. Most of all if you dont at least buy the LASM for your VLS.
So what are we looking at here? Were looking at a defense force that will probably be capable of defending Australia but will be limited in its ability to bring the war home to an enemy. With the exception of the Collins and even they are incapable at striking land targets. By not purchasing Tomahawk your being penny wise but pound foolish. It just doesn't make much sense to build such excellent platforms like the Collins and the new DD and not arming them with Tomahawk.
I acknowledge the excellent training and skills of RAN personnel, and, acknowledge the benefits of a naval exercise program that keeps the RAN sharp. However the RAN is a green water navy in a situation and a region where you need more. More then anything Australia is a maritime nation.
In my opinion, "which means nothing", the Ran should build a navy capable of two missions at one time. The first mission should be "protecting the land mass and vital seal lanes". The 2nd mission should be supporting A,air cover, fire support of a amphib op outside the range of land air cover "for at least meaningful loiter times". B, would be the same thing only in support of a coalition attack. Heres what the RAN needs for this.
1, 4 new DDs, not 3. And at least two of them armed with Tomahawk.
2, A cruise missile strike capability for the Collins boats.
3, 2 carriers in the 25,000 ton range optimized for amphib ops and carrying F-35bs.
4, 2 amphib support LPDs in the 15,000 to 20,000 ton class.
5, A significant increase in fleet support auxiliaries. And not grabbing civilian ships but dedicated fleet oilers and replenishment ships.
The baseline I'm using is the Italian navy.
Whilst I agree with most of your sentiments, I disagree with some for the following reasons:
FFG's. They are to provide an interim air warfare capacity, until the introduction of the AWD's, only. As far as frigates go (which is all they are) they will provide excellent capability.
ANZAC's, agree with the much needed upgrade, however it doesn't go far enough. The full "warfighting improvement program" should have been conducted, which would have given: 3D radar and advanced naval combat system, VL SM-2 and ESSM capability, Mk 45 Mod 4 gun, Harpoon II, a CIWS and a new torpedo. They could have built 4 more vessels and completely replaced the Adelaide Class, leaving RAN with 1x surface combatant class, but a more capable fleet, with improved maintenance efficiencies.
AWD's: agree with your comments, however this proposal is very much dependant on which vessel is chosen. RAN desperately wants TacTom and BMD capability, plus the announced combat fit on the Gibbs and Cox design. It may be too expensive however and Government may end up opting for the F-100. If that happens, say goodbye to any RAN long range strike capability or BMD capability as the ships simply don't have the capacity for these AND their anti-air role.
As to the aircraft carrier idea: simply won't happen, despite the capability improvements they would obviously provide. The funding is unlikely to ever appear and RAN could not man the ships anyway. The introduction of such ships would require dedicated escorts, which would be over and above our existed and planned force structure.
The problem with this is that we can barely man our existing fleet. One of the main reasons in the reduction from 6x Adelaide class FFG's was our current parlous manning issue. We are not far from tying up existing combatants to the dock for lack of sailors to take them to sea. Conscription is political suicide in Australia so it's not likely to be introduced.
RAN's future land strike capability will revolve around the Mk 45 Mod 4 gun and ERGM rounds, plus the capability that Harpoon II has. Tactom is a possibility, a naval JASSM variant is also a possibility, as is a naval variant of NLOS-LS. VTOL UCAV aircraft may be a possibility in future as well.
An F-35B Squadron is unlikely but not a completely improbable option for RAAF. (RAN is unlikely to contribute pilots to this squadron, having NO fixed wing pilots). These would be more likely to operate from our planned LHD vessels, of which 2x in the 22,000 - 27,000 ton class, will be operated by RAN, eventually.
A future fleet of my wish list which is perhaps more realistic would be:
14x major surface combatants comprising:
3x AWD's.
3x upgraded FFG's (the 1st to be replaced by the last AWD and the remainder to be replaced under the "follow on frigate project).
8x upgraded ANZAC's.
6x upgraded Collins.
3x Amphibious warfare / sea lift vessels comprising:
2x LHD's.
1x Ro-Ro "sealift" ship.
6x "hi-speed" landing craft sufficient to transport vehicles up to and including M1A1 Abrams and heavy "armoured" Bulldozers.
A patrol / minehunter force comprising:
14x Armidale patrol craft.
6x Huon Minehunters.
A support force comprising:
2x fleet refuellers/replenishment vessels.
And a variety of other landing craft, survey craft and training vessels.
Anything beyond this, short of a serious threat appearing on the strategic "horizon" seems a bit far fetched to this "realist".