Withdrawal from Iraq and the possibility of Middle East Regional War

[hollywood]

Iran is the problim

Interested to hear anyone's defence/security-based opinions (Please - can we avoid flaming/politics) with regards the possibility of an Allied withdrawal from Iraq and the reprecussions such a move could have on the country and the wider Middle East region as a whole.

Some points to consider:

I think it is pretty clear that a withdrawal would signal the intensification of the civil war already underway in Iraq. To aid this debate, the scenario also considers the Iraqi Central Government to be too weak and ineffective to stop the nation spiralling out of control. Thus in such an event, would neighbouring nations move to support certain factions within Iraq?

- Would Iran overtly move to increse its influence within Iraq, even to the point of moving military forces across the Shatt al Arab in the wake of an Allied withdrawal? If we withdrawal now We would be in a war with Iran AND THAT IS {Nuklear}

- How do the Arab nations respond to Iranian manuevers in an Iraq without US forces? Could the Arab nations pick up where the US left-off in the defence of Iraq's Government? Even more dangerous, maybe Iraq will become the battleground for regional powers... {yes it would be} and we would looooos big time if we let the Arab Nations Respond To Iran, thay dont have what Iran has and that is Military Power. we must keep iran out of all iraq and that is to start with a red hot blast of new targets in iran, with a air and sea bombordments for 3 to 4 mounths keeping iran out of all the arab nation,
if we do not act now we would waist time and blood in iraq, The United Stats
is loseing this war becous of "Iran" it is the Big problime thats getting biger and biger every day.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/12/03/wirq03.xml

- Can such an Iraqi conflict further expand across the region? Oil supplies threatend in the Gulf? Iraqi Jihadi appearing, aiding and intensifying the insurgency in countries like Saudi, Jordan, Kuwait or maybe even the Central Asian nations of the former Soviet Union? Does Allied withdrawal jeopardise NATO's future in Afghanistan? And is it certain that without US securitry in the region, a regional arms race between the major players would get underway, with the distinct possibility of a race to develop WMD?

- If open conflict came to the region, would the US militarily support its allies, maybe in the form limited to Air/Naval Ops like that after the withdrawal from SE Asia in 1973? Or would public opinion at home be too demanding in support of full disengagement?

- Is it a given that the Kurds in Northern Iraq would use a withdrawal as a pretext to stake a claim for independence and would Turkey, as hinted, respond to such a move militarily? Can anyone see Syria and Iran militarily (and quite ironically) siding with the Kurds in such an event?

- And on the "periphery", what of Israel? Could Tel Aviv find itself dragged into such a regional conflict, with a potential for some strange alliances perhaps??

Look forward to your views.

maybe Iraq will become the battleground for regional powers... {yes it would be} and we would looooos big time if we let the Arab Nations Respond To Iran, thay dont have what Iran has and that is Military Power. we must keep iran out of all iraq and that is to start with a red hot blast of new targets in iran, with an air and sea bombordments for 3 to 4 mounths keeping iran out of all the arab nation,
if we do not act now we would waist time and blood in iraq, The United Stats
is loseing this war becous of "Iran" it is the Big problime thats getting biger and biger every day. we must do what is right and that is finishing what we should be doing and thats Iran out of the map,yes it would start a new world war 3 but we need this war what ever the cost of it and that is to stop the terrorest from growing into Monsters, after all the work we have don after all this do you think we should step out of it and let an iranyan terrorest nation
play in all that oil, do you know what that means it means the new world power of iran,

 

[Waylander]

Yeehaw Cowboy. :nutkick

Who wouldn't agree that WW III is the one and only we need!

 

[atilla]

why ?? how

why arab states should respond to IRAN ???? ıt wont make sense and ıt ıs not an realıstıc senaıro to me yes sure Iran wıll be lıke super power soon but thıs wont leed arab states and ıran ın cralash because of IRAQ posıblty IRAn and USA could clash

 

[Mardini]

It would be interesting to see the outcome of a civil war. No other power would likely become involved to suppress a conflict between the various factions. I think the Shia is the largest group and the Sunnis would therefore be at a disadvantage. The Kurds could ride it out mostly unaffected but would still need to figure out what to do once the Shia and Sunnis are done with each other.

I think partition would be the least destructive route. If a single group chose to fight for dominance of the whole country it would be a real bloodbath.

I guess my question would be whether or not Syria would side with the Sunnis and Iran with the Shia. They seemed to be cooperating in their support of Hezbollah in Lebanon. If however they were to find themselves in opposition to each other it could mean a Shia vs. Sunni regional conflict.

Iran's ambitions are especially troublesome for Israel. I think any scenario that expands Iran's power and influnece in the region is a problem for Israel.

Saudi Arabia allready said if there would be a sunni bloodbath, they would move in and support the sunnis, I therefore expect the majority of sunni muslims numbering 90% of all muslims to do the same, I do not think Iran would risk such a thing.

 

[Mardini]

maybe Iraq will become the battleground for regional powers... {yes it would be} and we would looooos big time if we let the Arab Nations Respond To Iran, thay dont have what Iran has and that is Military Power. we must keep iran out of all iraq and that is to start with a red hot blast of new targets in iran, with an air and sea bombordments for 3 to 4 mounths keeping iran out of all the arab nation,
if we do not act now we would waist time and blood in iraq, The United Stats
is loseing this war becous of "Iran" it is the Big problime thats getting biger and biger every day. we must do what is right and that is finishing what we should be doing and thats Iran out of the map,yes it would start a new world war 3 but we need this war what ever the cost of it and that is to stop the terrorest from growing into Monsters, after all the work we have don after all this do you think we should step out of it and let an iranyan terrorest nation
play in all that oil, do you know what that means it means the new world power of iran,

not entirely true.. iran has a huge military yes, but its major advisaries includes Egypt (large F-16 operator , M1 Abrams tanks etc) Saudi Arabia (F-15s and M1 Abrams tanks, 72 EF-2000 Eurofighters on the way) UAE ( world's most modern F-16's and leclercs) Jordan (F-16s) Qatar (Mirage 2000-5s and F16's?) Kuwait (F-18s) etc The iranian advisaries would field primarely western hardware that would have a qualitative advantage, but if they master them probably is an entirely different story... but one thing is sure it would be a major blood bath and a change in the middle east map for sure....

 

[FutureTank]

Saudi Arabia allready said if there would be a sunni bloodbath, they would move in and support the sunnis, I therefore expect the majority of sunni muslims numbering 90% of all muslims to do the same, I do not think Iran would risk such a thing.

...even though both desre it, and have tried to do so numerous times since the creation of the two sects.

 

[Mardini]

Most of the terror is caused by iranians trained in iran. iran is also making all of the bombs. the way to victory in iraq is to convince the saudis to increase there oil output to the equivilant of irans output, then attack irans ports. This will starv the country into overthrowing its govt.

not a good idea... last time a major embargo on a nation ended killing over one million civilians (Iraq) when you have a dictatorship and scarce resources, guess who will have the first priority..!? and a starving people cannot mobilize since the first priority would be not starving to death, instead of a showdown with the dictatorship.

 

[FutureTank]

not entirely true.. iran has a huge military yes, but its major advisaries includes Egypt (large F-16 operator , M1 Abrams tanks etc) Saudi Arabia (F-15s and M1 Abrams tanks, 72 EF-2000 Eurofighters on the way) UAE ( world's most modern F-16's and leclercs) Jordan (F-16s) Qatar (Mirage 2000-5s and F16's?) Kuwait (F-18s) etc The iranian advisaries would field primarely western hardware that would have a qualitative advantage, but if they master them probably is an entirely different story... but one thing is sure it would be a major blood bath and a change in the middle east map for sure....

Having modern equipment nad actually using it are not the same consepts.
Besides that Egypt, with by far the largest army, has no way to get to Iraq other then via the Canal shiping, which may be interdicted by both aircraft, and missiles (which Iran has) due to the fairly well known places of embarcation.

You forgot to add Pakistan.

 

[Mardini]

I think the only way to beat Iran is to destabalize them... inciting some Kurds and other Azeris sounds like a good plan to me.

Are you serious??? that would be the end of these people in no time.... Iranians are very nationalistic people who are very proud of their past.. what do you think would happen when you put up a minority against the majority? and on top of that include hardcore nationalism?
It would be very ugly...

 

[atilla]

Caspian ??

does any one know the İRANS defence stregnth near caspian sea side or are they as powerful lıke ın gulf ??

 

[Mardini]

Having modern equipment nad actually using it are not the same consepts.
Besides that Egypt, with by far the largest army, has no way to get to Iraq other then via the Canal shiping, which may be interdicted by both aircraft, and missiles (which Iran has) due to the fairly well known places of embarcation.

You forgot to add Pakistan.

that was my point

But I add that Egypt can get to Iraq through the Sinai peninsula and via Saudi arabia, since they both consider themselves protecters of sunni islam they will have the same objectives in stopping the shiite Iran. I doubt Iran would have the capability of maintaining a closure above the strip of water separating the sinai peninsula from the saudi soil. Although large the iranian army has limited capabilities when it comes to long range operations..
I didn't add Pakistan because I do not think they would do anything other than securing their borders and maybe provide some crew for jets and tanks and opening up for jihadist to fight, they will be busy securing their border with india...

 

[Mardini]

The only reason the PPK exists is for a Kurdish state... maybe if they get one they will go away.



Giving the Kurds a state is one of those disruption factors that can make or break a country. If we add some fuel to the fire by inciting more uprisings our enemies might just collapse from within.

you are a dreamer BIG E.. this was tried in Iraq, and look what happened.

 

[Mardini]

Well since I agree we can't invade, and since sanctions don't work as long as everybody needs their oil, the only thing you can do is negotiate to try to find some common ground... while gradually influencing new generations of Iranians with media (from satellite TV to internet), brands & style (from fashion to food to everyday househould brands) so that at the end anything standing between the young and personal advancement/enrichment will be shoved aside... from religious extremism to extreme nationalism.

We'll need to be very patient though...

cheers

Are you sure this will work? this has been going on for a long time now, some of the youth in these countries have accepted the mcdonaldization culture while others have seen this as an attempt by america and the west to replace their culture with an american materialistic culture to have them defeated that way and have learned to despise anything coming from america. And there is a growing trend in the middle east, where muslim and arab fast food chains and fashion is slowly replacing some of the american brands. I think we would need a totally different foreign policy from the US and the west regarding the Palestine-israel conflict, the war on terrorism and the removal of the dictatoric regimes of these countries. The average arab and muslim citizen feels oppressed by their rulers and the west at the same time, the solution will be to win their hearts and that is not happening. on the contrary, it is getting worse.

 

[atilla]

dictators

sure most of the people who ıs lıvıng ın mıd east agree whıth removal of MOLLA states or dıctators or kıngs or tyrans as far as ı know most turks agree

what whe cannot accep whıle romıvıng them there ıs no alterneta or peaceful system whıth out harmıng the ordınary people SURE ATATURKS turkey wıll never be on sıde of mollas but also sure ataturks TURKEY wıll not also partıcıpate emparyalıst moves ın the regıon lıke dıvıde and conquer

all thıs pressure wıll end up with stronger MOLLA regıme and stronger Wahabı ınfuluence ıt ıs also strange to to see USA ıs makıng tyrans Stronger After the saddams removel only state who benefıt thıs sure was ıran ın oıl prıces sia region ex ex .... and ıt ıs sad to see USA ıs gıvıng desıcıons about theır mıd east polıcy dependıng on trıbes ( lıke talabanı barzanı whıch they are not also democratıc )

AS long as some wıll depend on 16th century trıbe to decıde the entıre future of IRAQ sure ATATURKS TURKEY ıs also agaınst thıs

Iraq needs a secular democratıc faırly elected goverment Iraq doesnt need trıbe leaders to be presıdent

Corroptıon should be put to an end or sure ıraqıs wıll lose theır belıves

ground reforms must be done ın ıraq Lıke AGA or trıbe systems must fınısh by gıvıng more freedom to ordınary and gıvıng more educatıon to ordınary people

 

[Mardini]

sure most of the people who ıs lıvıng ın mıd east agree whıth removal of MOLLA states or dıctators or kıngs or tyrans as far as ı know most turks agree

Yes indeed the majority would want them gone today before tomorrow...

what whe cannot accep whıle romıvıng them there ıs no alterneta or peaceful system whıth out harmıng the ordınary people SURE ATATURKS turkey wıll never be on sıde of mollas but also sure ataturks TURKEY wıll not also partıcıpate emparyalıst moves ın the regıon lıke dıvıde and conquer

No that is a good thing, turkey should support free democratic forces that looks after the Mid East's interest and not foreign countries, it is about time the region becomes autonomous, free and strong. The people of the Mid east have had enough from opressors and puppet governments..

all thıs pressure wıll end up with stronger MOLLA regıme and stronger Wahabı ınfuluence ıt ıs also strange to to see USA ıs makıng tyrans Stronger After the saddams removel only state who benefıt thıs sure was ıran ın oıl prıces sia region ex ex .... and ıt ıs sad to see USA ıs gıvıng desıcıons about theır mıd east polıcy dependıng on trıbes ( lıke talabanı barzanı whıch they are not also democratıc )

I think it is a stupid policy and very dangerous one, since these personalities would in the end have their loyality within their tribes instead of the nation. I myself am engaged to a lovely iranian girl, so don't get me wrong, but I wouldn't like a mullah iranian influence in the region, as much as I don't like an empirialistik or nationalistic approach, again free democratic governments ruled by the PEOPLE!

AS long as some wıll depend on 16th century trıbe to decıde the entıre future of IRAQ sure ATATURKS TURKEY ıs also agaınst thıs

bravo ( are you turkish?) (pro ataturk? hehe)

Iraq needs a secular democratıc faırly elected goverment Iraq doesnt need trıbe leaders to be presıdent

yes they do, and if they can't agree, the only solution might be a devided Iraq, although I am against such plan in anyway, we will have a new Turkey vs "Kurdistan" problem in the north, an Iran clone in the south, and a sunni state in the west

Corroptıon should be put to an end or sure ıraqıs wıll lose theır belıves

ground reforms must be done ın ıraq Lıke AGA or trıbe systems must fınısh by gıvıng more freedom to ordınary and gıvıng more educatıon to ordınary people

the problem is the shiite majority government backed by extremist shiites like muqtada al sadr, who is responsible for a great part of the sectarian violence that have left thousands of iraqis dead, mostly sunnis... they should be removed and put to trial like saddam, coz they aren't in anyway better than him... and they should put new faces in the government faces that have not had any part in any of the tribes/parties/organizations etc.

 

[horse.gun.wife]

I'd say let the Iraqis try to keep the country intact. a separation in three parts is in nobodys interest ( maybe US interest ). A kurdistan in northern Iraq wouldnt be able to survive on its own. Turkey would and should intervent. Id say a seperation into 3 countries would be disastrous, causing an even more difficult situation. Iran most likely would send troops '' to free the iraqis'', Turks should be obliged to secure its Turkmen peoples savety, and enable kurdistan from happening. The US gives support to kurds, and im truely wondering if the US would try to kick Turkey out. ( i would like to open a threat on this situation because allies would be against each other, and what i think the first who makes its fist hard will take the long straw ).

- my opinion is the whole iraq/iran situation was started to make this region unstable, to divide Iraq, and cause a massive war. This war is in everybodys interest, Iran would love it , US would love it as wel as Israel and Saudi Arabia. Its not obvious yet which way this war is gonn go, but some people are pushing it the direction they want -

 

[shimmy]

Middle Eastern Involvement

When the US leaves Iraq I feel that Iran is the only ME nation that will get intenseely involved in Iraq. Should this happen , at some point Saudi Arabia and possibly Syria, might start to worry about such Pesian influences and about the safety of the Sunni population. Perhaps Turkey will then start to worry about anti-government influences in its land too. Could Iran seek to "annex " part of what is now Iraq ? If it does what does that do to the security of neighboring Islamic nations ?
Any move by the US (or anyone else) to ensure a secure Kurdish territory will certainly meet with opposition from Turkey and possibly Iran.
All this aside, the US must get out of Iraq quickly before it really becomes another Vietnam.

 

[atilla]

vietnam IRAQ??

Iraqs example ıs more similar to former yugoslawia rather then vietnam

 

[Tasman]

Iraqs example ıs more similar to former yugoslawia rather then vietnam

Whilst the conflict maybe more of an ethnic/sectarian clash than was the case in Vietnam I think Shimmy is correct when he likens the situation to Vietnam. As in Vietnam the USA and its allies are caught up in a war that many people feel does not appear to have an achievable endpoint. So Shimmy's statement that "the US must get out of Iraq quickly before it really becomes another Vietnam", accurately reflects what a lot of people believe.

The problem, as in Vietnam, is how to get out without losing face and without plunging Iraq even further into chaos. IMO, the only way to achieve this is to speed up the training and equipping of the Iraq defence and security forces so that they can take over the roles that the US and its allies are currently performing. I believe, however, that time will run out before this can be properly carried out.

In Vietnam, following withdrawal, the situation was settled by the Vietnamese themselves when the North invaded and defeated the South. In Iraq the situation is, as many have said, much more complex and the potential for a war involving not only the sectarian groups in Iraq, but Iraq's Middle East neighbours such as Iran, seems to me to be very strong. I guess it's that threat and the potential disruption to oil supplies that complicates the decision facing the US President and his advisors.

Cheers

 

[Rich]

Iraqs example ıs more similar to former yugoslawia rather then vietnam

How so? Or are we just supposed to guess?