Does anyone get the impression the US Pentagon intentionally inflates the status of the Iranian Navy and feeds off every bit of paranoia the media adds to the Iranian Navy? A lot of what is being said simply doesn't hold up to logic, and sounds way too much like the desciptions of Iraqi Armor units in 1990.
A good point but there are some differences. First off there are still remnants of Yank equipment, Yank training, and western doctrine, in Irans armed forces. The impact of this was seen in the war with Iraq when the Mullahs released the air force pilots from jail and they did a great job against the Iraqi air force. Granted over time this has lessened but I still can imagine fighters I'd rather not see in the air then the few dozen F-4 and F-14s the Iranians can drum up. Dont forget at the time of the '79 revolution, a time I was a few hundred air miles away from Iran, their armed forces, and especially air force, was the best in the region.
Even still, even the least optimistic would have a hard time imagining an Iranian victory against a coordinated American attack. The Iranian navy would be destroyed in short order. The real question is what impact they would have before this happened. We have every reason to respect high-tech anti ship missiles and mines. These two weapons, along with a terrorist dinghy, are what has damaged American warships in the past. The Iranians are correct in basing their defense around these two systems. I would also hazard the Iranians would fight smarter and better then the Iraqis did. They are an Asian people, not Arab, and strike me as Learners from the mistakes of others. Also, unlike the Iraqis in Gulf-1, they have seen Yanks fight in their region before and they have an idea what we will do.
No disrespect to your NYNY analogy but its irrelevant. We would be fighting in "their" backyard, in terrain, air, and water they know.
I understand respecting your adversaries, but if you put the combination of what is listed above for New York State against the Iranian Navy I'd say it would be a close fight, with Iran having the advantage because of their large number of sea mines. To say either is a serious and concerning threat to the US Navy, or any combination of European Navies seems unrealistic to me though.
Using mines is exactly the way to fight the USN. They sure aren't going to leave the Gulf and take on a CV group wheeling around at 30 knots with a kill zone of 600 miles in a 360% around it. They'd never even get close enough to it to launch weapons. The only card they have is to lure the USN into the Gulf by terrorizing commercial shipping. Why do you think we are trying to get the LCS system operational? Even still the Iranians have no hope of winning. They simply want to cause unacceptable damage to our ships, close down the Gulf, and force a favorable diplomatic resolution to the conflict.
After all, the only country spending money to build up their fleet assets to counter the Iranian Navy "threat" is Saudi Arabia, which is probably why the Europeans spend just as much time claiming the Iranian threat exists, since they sell Naval goods to the Saudi's too.
Another gun boat navy, well, they have a few nice frigates. And assuming they even join in and fight. I'd say of all the, so called, friendlies in the Gulf the Saudis are to be counted upon the least.
Its true we have a habit of over estimating our enemies. Some of it comes from pure caution but much of it comes out of the mouths of Politicians, talking heads, and activists who dont know which end of the gun shoots. An example was Teddy Kennedy and Jesse Jackson before Gulf-1. Neither had ever worn a uniform, neither are to bright to begin with, and both had Political axes to grind. Which is why both strategy genius's predicted a 6 month ground war and 50,000 American casualties. Anyone who knew anything about the military knew that Iraqi army was as good as dead once the coalition buildup crossed a particular thresh hold.
As would the Iranian navy be. I wouldn't, however, count on them being stupid. They will fight the naval equivalent Fallujah style fight on and under the water. They will study the "war of the tankers" during their war with Iraq, the Falklands war, and the damage Yank ships have gotten from mines. And they know we will eventually have to come after them if they close down the Gulf. Mines and Missiles. Thats how they are going to fight us. Draw us into ambush!
I think you have to respect sophisticated thinking like that.
