Get your war on' down in the Horn

[FutureTank]

I'm suprised how little press comes from this region to the US. We hardly ever hear about it. Ever since the "Black-Hawk-Down" our response to Somalia is "Somali who?"

Just realised this thread is here!

Actually I understand there is a US training mission in Ethiopia. There appears to be a US Corps of Engineers mission in the region also, currently in Mali?

 

[FutureTank]

> Militarily, the UIC didn't stand a chance in open field battles. Ethiopia has 500 T55 and T62 and 200 BRDM/BTR60, 2 dozen Hind attack helicopters, besides a dozen modernized MIG23s, another dozen SU25s, 10 SU27 and about 20 MIG21s.

Is this from Janes, or actual functioning equipment

There was a report of 250-300,000 Eretreans deployed on the border. I don't know if I'm prepared to belive this report, but if true, then the Ethiopian force sent to Somalia couldn't have been very large at all.

 

[Aussie Digger]

Is this from Janes, or actual functioning equipment

There was a report of 250-300,000 Eretreans deployed on the border. I don't know if I'm prepared to belive this report, but if true, then the Ethiopian force sent to Somalia couldn't have been very large at all.

Would it need to be? The Islamists's no doubt fired their 1 or 2 rounds each for "forms sake" and then nearly fall over themselves in their haste to "re-group" a good 300k's or so from the maximum range of the nearest Ethiopian arty and airpower...

 

[Rich]

According to the BBC, "The United Nations estimates that at least 8,000 Ethiopian troops may be in the country, while regional rival Eritrea has deployed some 2,000 troops in support of the Islamic group."[18] Ethiopia had, however, only admitted to 3,000–4,000 troops being involved[7], while Eritrea denied having any troops in Somalia.[19] In addition, the TFG alleges that there are up to 8,000 foreign jihadists fighting on behalf of the ICU. The ICU had made a worldwide appeal for Muslim mujahideen to come fight for their cause.[6]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Somalia_(2006-present)

I had some other sources as well but I'm not going to look them up. Really what are my chances of convincing you?

They won the Ogadan war in the late 70's driving the Somalis back over the border in some style.
Which I believe is the only decleared war that has occured between the two states.

Yes, they drove back a rag tag militia but were unable to over throw the force behind the invasion. There have been battles in this region , between these antagonists, for hundreds of years.

I did because you make stuff up (US arms and training, 10'000 forigen fighters, Ethiopia losing its wars against Somalia) and because you came out with this wierd little anti european rant at the start of the thread, which ignored your own countries history in Africa, which was way off topic and seemed designed to annoy people.

Ethiopia will have real dificulty in pulling its troops out, if they do the goverment will fall, if they dont they will be facing a hit and run campain, classic tar baby.

No excuse for ignorance my friend. If you have a point then make it like a grown up adult. I will reiterate that thru the decades Ethiopia has never been able to do what it is doing now, and that is sustain a modern coordinated offensive, with the use of a combined arms, attack and drive thru Somalia towards the major southern cities. Encircling them and on the verge of over-throwing a Somali Govt. by force of arms.

Am I the only one here who finds the Ethiopian success a bit odd? Anybody else here sense an American presence behind its success? And if not American then probably Israeli. Israel has close ties to the Ethiopian Govt. and has as much to fear as we do about Somalia becoming a terrorist training state.

What American arms??
The only thing I can think of is M109, which they bought in the 60's/70's, since then they've been Russian all the way. I have'ent been able to find anything on American Advisers in the country, do you have something?

Do they still have any of the F-5s we gave them in the 70s? I dont know and frankly dont know what American systems the Ethiopians are using. I do know that in 2002 our Govt. passed a bill greatly increasing the military aid we send to Ethiopia, Dijibouti, and Kenya, two front line states in the war against terrorism. America has a large military contingment already at a base in Dijibouti.

My guess is we are mostly giving money and credits to Ethiopia for them to buy and enhance the Russian systems they already have. I also make an educated guess that American UAVs, and other Intel assets, are being used in this current offensive.

Nearly every day, rings of people gather on Mogadishu streets to watch lashings, and the crowds cheer as leather whips cut canals into flesh. One Islamic leader in a town north of Mogadishu recently passed an edict threatening that anyone who does not pray five times a day will be beheaded.
"It's black and white," said the leader, Sheik Hussein Barre Rage. "The Koran says people must pray."

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/12/14/news/somalia.php?page=2

Dragonkind786 again I ask you, If you like Islamic Law so much why are you living in Chicago?

 

[Grand Danois]

Regarding this:

Dragonkind786 again I ask you, If you like Islamic Law so much why are you living in Chicago?

Well, though I understand your reasoning behind the question, I find it peripheral to the discussion and can't see why Dragonking should be accountable for why he lives in the US.

We are in the realm of personal Weltanschauung - hardly within the envelope of the topic at hand.

Thanks

 

[radiosilence]

Dragonkind786 again I ask you, If you like Islamic Law so much why are you living in Chicago?

I suggest you read our constitution when it comes to freedom of religion.

 

[Rich]

I suggest you read our constitution when it comes to freedom of religion.

Whats the constitution have to do with this? I will add that, and since you brought up the US Constitution, the Sharia, if practiced in America, would be totally against the Constitution. In fact the US Constitution was created to protect us against legal systems like the Sharia.

Tho I admit the Sharia is different in concept then it is in practice. Either way its not protected by the US Constitution. And either way nobody was asking you two. I was asking Dragon, and was going to give him an opportunity to answer his ownself. Even tho I probably know the answer already.

Its easy to admire a system from afar when you dont have to live under it. I get a lot of similar sentiment from my Muslim friends here in America, of which I have many. I admire many things about my Muslim friends. Most of all their family values, hard work ethic, respect for law, and dislike of alcohol and drugs. One thing I dont understand is how they say they admire Sharia, while all the while avoiding living under it. In fact their actions would point to a preference for American style freedoms and Law. A system, btw, they flourish under.

I saw much the same thing during the Cold War with the beret wearing "better Red then dead" crowd. BTW a period I served under arms in the mideast. These pampered children of Democracy loved jetting about espousing Communism while spending their lives avoiding life under it.

So....thats why I asked Dragon. Out of personal interest, and even tho I already knew the answer.

 

[Grand Danois]

Tho I admit the Sharia is different in concept then it is in practice. Either way its not protected by the US Constitution. And either way nobody was asking you two. I was asking Dragon, and was going to give him an opportunity to answer his ownself. Even tho I probably know the answer already.

If you read my previous post you'll realise I was hinting at you (plural) digressing from topic. Not commenting on rights under the Constitution.

In other words:

Get back to the situation on the Horn.

Thank you.

 

[radiosilence]

Whats the constitution have to do with this? I will add that, and since you brought up the US Constitution, the Sharia, if practiced in America, would be totally against the Constitution. In fact the US Constitution was created to protect us against legal systems like the Sharia.

Tho I admit the Sharia is different in concept then it is in practice. Either way its not protected by the US Constitution. And either way nobody was asking you two. I was asking Dragon, and was going to give him an opportunity to answer his ownself. Even tho I probably know the answer already.

Its easy to admire a system from afar when you dont have to live under it. I get a lot of similar sentiment from my Muslim friends here in America, of which I have many. I admire many things about my Muslim friends. Most of all their family values, hard work ethic, respect for law, and dislike of alcohol and drugs. One thing I dont understand is how they say they admire Sharia, while all the while avoiding living under it. In fact their actions would point to a preference for American style freedoms and Law. A system, btw, they flourish under.

I saw much the same thing during the Cold War with the beret wearing "better Red then dead" crowd. BTW a period I served under arms in the mideast. These pampered children of Democracy loved jetting about espousing Communism while spending their lives avoiding life under it.

So....thats why I asked Dragon. Out of personal interest, and even tho I already knew the answer.

I could respond this above post but i don't want to get off topic here. If you would like discuss this matter more we can go to world affairs talk or in another thread.

 

[merocaine]

I had some other sources as well but I'm not going to look them up. Really what are my chances of convincing you?

there is no chance, because its rubbish, find some real sources and you might go some way to convincing me.

"TFG alleges that there are up to 8,000 foreign jihadists fighting on behalf of the ICU"

The Transfederal goverment are not a trustworthy source, and wikipedia although it has its uses is not a trustworthy source for current events.

No wrong, they defeated the Somalis including there conventional forces(which were far supiour to their own) in open combat driving them from Ethiopia. It was an invasion of Ethiopia, not of Somalia they had no need to destroy the Somali Army, which in any case was so badly beatin they never again posed a threat to Ethiopia. Actually the effects of that war begain the decline of the Somali state, a catostropic defeat in the light of History.

Ethiopia and Eritria carried out a war, not to long ago, using combined arms warfare during the battle of Badame, which impressed forigen military observers.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/eritrea.htm


I believe they would have no problem in carrying this operation. They were fighting a light infantry force(if you could even call them that). Not a comparable military. The one thing the Americans did supply was moral support, quite important in itself.

I'm sorry to sum up, the Ethiopians dont use US kit, there is no evidence they use US Intel assets (considering they live in the region, it is the American who probobly relay on them for intel), Ethiopia has never lost a war against Somalia, and there is no evidence that there is 8000 to 10000 forigen fighters in Somalia, hundreds is closer to the mark, at least that comes from news sources not one of the protaganests.

 

[Rich]

Ethiopia and Eritria carried out a war, not to long ago, using combined arms warfare during the battle of Badame, which impressed forigen military observers.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...ar/eritrea.htm

Im going to assume that you missed this paragraph.

The war between Ethiopia and Eritrea has echoes of World War One in its bloody stalemate and trench warfare. Tens of thousands of people have been killed. The fighting has been going on, with some interruptions, for the better part of two years, and involves relatively sophisticated weaponry. Each side has some jet fighters that have attacked the other, and US television regularly shows long-range artillery of the two armies pounding each other. The border war has claimed the lives of an estimated 40-thousand soldiers, and has dragged down the economies of both countries. More than 300-thousand troops remain dug-in and deadlocked along an 800-kilometer front.

We will never know exactly how many foreign fighters are/were in Somalia. There are so many factions and rebel groups its hard to pin down. The place was however, under the IUC, becoming the destination of choice for militant fighters. Its doesn't take a genius to see what would have eventually happened in Somalia. Osama himself has praised the Islamic courts on a taped message. BTW where is "your" evidence that only "hundreds" are fighting there?

So.....until more information becomes available I'm leaving this thread. There are far to many one liners and far to little "substance".

And they do use US kit. They have used several US artillery systems and there is a significant US training presence in the country.

 

[merocaine]

Ok you have refuted nothing, supplied no evidence for any of your claims, take your ball and go home.

 

[Rich]

Ok you have refuted nothing, supplied no evidence for any of your claims, take your ball and go home.

Actually I like and respect the forum to much to allow threads to degenerate into insult-fests. I said from the beginning I didnt have irrefutable proof. I will add you have provided no proof of any kind to support your claims.

 

[FutureTank]

US involvement

There have been US troops in the region for years, and they have a web site here http://www.hoa.centcom.mil/facts.htm

It is my guess that whatever equipment Ethiopia has is relatively obsolete and non-functioning by standards of US. I sincerely doubt that Ethiopia has the funds to maintain defence infrastructure to maintain US equipment which requires more support then the Soviet equipmne they had used since the 70s.

Even IF they had assistance from the US in the operation against ICU, it was unlikely to have been that significant. The whole Ethiopian operation was likely to have veen on a two, maybe three brigade level, and the US contingent deployed to the region has the personnel to advise in the conduct of such a relatively small scale operation.

 

[merocaine]

Looks like this is going to be all over, well in a conventional sense in a day or two.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-6313433,00.html

A.P and the Guardian.

 

[contedicavour]

Is this from Janes, or actual functioning equipment

There was a report of 250-300,000 Eretreans deployed on the border. I don't know if I'm prepared to belive this report, but if true, then the Ethiopian force sent to Somalia couldn't have been very large at all.

Regarding the numbers of equipment in Ethiopia's army and air force, they come from globaldefence. Most of the equipment has been delivered recently, such as Romanian MIG23s at the end of the '90s or several new Hinds that arrived after the1998 war with Eritrea.
The key issue is funding to continue paying for spare parts, maintenance, and foreign pilots' salaries. Provided the US keeps funding going, most listed equipment is functioning and/or can be easily replaced with second hand material from Eastern Europe...

cheers

 

[merocaine]

Ok looks like its all over, this could'ent have gone better for the Ethiopians,

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-6315259,00.html

now I wonder what conditions the Ethiopians will put on their leaving, in effect, Somalia is now at their mercy, the Transnational goverments power flows from Ethiopian guns, they have no bargining power what so ever...

The Primeminister has decleared the Warlord era over and all guns to be handed in, this should go down well with the locals.

 

[contedicavour]

Ok looks like its all over, this could'ent have gone better for the Ethiopians,

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-6315259,00.html

now I wonder what conditions the Ethiopians will put on their leaving, in effect, Somalia is now at their mercy, the Transnational goverments power flows from Ethiopian guns, they have no bargining power what so ever...

The Primeminister has decleared the Warlord era over and all guns to be handed in, this should go down well with the locals.

The Ethiopians don't want to risk losing men and equipment in a prolonged guerrilla warfare, so they'll probably retreat to the border leaving only some highly mobile units with MI-8 with some MI-24 support holed up in well defended bases outside of the main cities.
The Transitional Govt will try peace talks with the support of the Kenyan Govt but is guerrilla starts the cohesion among the TNG's troops (belonging to several ex warlords' militias) risks to break up, leading to new Ethiopian interventions...
Let's see. After all we wouldn't have imagined a month ago the extent and speed of the UIC collapse.

cheers

 

[Rich]

Yank C-130 gunships are thumping terrorists in southern Somalia, after first tracking them with Intelligence aircraft. We reportedly killed the head of Al Qaeda in East Africa. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16531987/

I hate to say "I told you so".


From one week ago.

This is subtle planning and execution of an order higher then what a Africa military is usually capable of. I sense a strong and hidden American involvement here. Outstanding work for everyone involved.

I dont think there is any question that American influence and arms have contributed greatly to the success of this offensive.

 

[merocaine]

Ok, Ok, you maybe right, but I'm not convinced, an alternative reading is this,
The Ethiopians know the Americans have the hots for certain islamists they believe are behind the embassy bombings in east africa. They also know the Americans have alot of assets in the area, the Ethiopians hoping to curry favor with the Americans supply the coordinates of the suspected islamic hideout to the US. The Americans monitering the area, and patroling the coast in the hope of catching the same dudes suspect the information the Ethiopians are supplying is correct, with enough to go on the air strike is called.

If this invasion was planned with the US (and as you imply taking tactical direction from the US) why was'ent the carrier task force deployed sooner, the somali coast line is a big one, 3 ships are not enough. I would have thought that the US would have moved sooner to seal the area if they were as closely associated with this as you think.

I still feel that the Ethiopians had there own long standing reasons for attacking Somalia, the US were not opposed of course, as Islamic Law is no US friend. And now with the Pheasents in the open so to speak, and there Ethiopians friends supplying the intel they have decided to act.

One thing I would have thought is that the americans would have wanted this Guy alive, for a trial, for info, ect. If it was the special forces, why did'ent they go in on the ground, at least then they could have made sure they got the right guy.