Will Russia ever regain it's Military might?

[Big-E]

Kill corruption - late 19th century USA

I had to pay the militia 100USD just to give me my passport back, and that was last year.

Defeat Mafia - early 20th century USA

I guess you've never visted mother Russia...

stop killing presidential candidates - shall I make a list from elsewhere that includes presidents?

We have never had a sitting president attempt to kill his opponent.

institute economic reforms - it seems this is the job of EVERY incoming administration (going from command economy to market was change enough IMHO)

Have they really? I thought the biggest money makers being defense and fossil fuels were still nationalized.

establish strong lasting democratic institutions - it seems people have opinions about US democratic institutions also (and is US democratic model appropriate for all countries?)

No one said it had to be based on the US model... there is no reason to make this a pissing contest. I thought you were Australian anyway... are you Russian?

tripple their PPP to EU standards - Purchasing power parity ? How about going back to Gold Standard?

That certainly wouldn't hurt... 18% inflation isn't doing you any good

 

[FutureTank]

INo one said it had to be based on the US model...

What I'm trying to point out is that these are the sort of challenges that recur in many countries at different times, particularly times of dramatic change.

I could have said "the state of Royal Navy before Trafalgar", or French economy that led to the French Revolution, or the Meiji Revolution in Japan, etc.

All these major changes a re complex, and take time to work themselves out. The worst case scenario is if whoever replaces Putin decides to rebuild the Russian Empire, or worse the USSR
My suggestion is that whoever replaces Putin will seek to integrate Russia into the EU
From this perspective there is a less likely recreation of the Russian Military to the size of Soviet Era

 

[Big-E]

From this perspective there is a less likely recreation of the Russian Military to the size of Soviet Era

Well all I can base my assumptions on are what Putin is doing. He is trying to resurrect the Soviet Era military... It seems to be a popular politcal platform in the Federation.

 

[rrrtx]

With countries like China and India who`s economies have grown at drastic rates, I wouldn`t count on oil prices dropping in the near future.

I agree that will keep prices high but I also think that we will see the supply go up as a lot of new exploration/production projects that have been in the works finally come online.

 

[rrrtx]

I think you need to take a deeper look at Russian economy.
It may be an interesting exercise to have a look at the US economy prior to WW1 when it was a net importer, exporting mostly resources. Times change.

The US was a developing country at that time. But it did have the legal structure in place that allowed most trade to take place without the need of a mafia "roof" to look after a company's interests.

I would be more optimistic if I saw Russia begin to develop the institutions that are important for a healthy well rounded economy. All I see however is a consolidation of power by Putin. Centralization usually runs conter to growth. I think Russia is moving backwards right now if anything.

 

[FutureTank]

Well all I can base my assumptions on are what Putin is doing. He is trying to resurrect the Soviet Era military... It seems to be a popular politcal platform in the Federation.

Well all I can base my assumptions on are what Putin is doing. He is trying to resurrect the Soviet Era military... It seems to be a popular political platform in the Federation.

And I think US should support him in this

Big-E....several people have done some working out with current OOB for the Russian Army, and there are parts of the border which are held by vastly inadequate number of troops.

Now consider that we are not talking about US-Mexican border that allows cheap labour into the US.

We have the Korean border with all kind of garbage being smuggled in (like what Australians found on a North Korean vessel), we have Chinese pushing everything from fake merchandise to drugs and illegal arms, we have people being kidnapped, and illegals sneaking in to hold up trains and resource bases, then there are the good old Islamists, all kinds of smugglers from Pakistan and Afghanistan, Iranians trying to assert themselves in the Central Asian republics, import tax evasion, all sorts of health issues, white slavery, etc. etc.
Do you wonder why a stronger Army is popular with the public in Russia?

And all these issues don't stop at the Russian border but keep going on into Europe, and from there to US. Russian Border Guards and Internal Troops have NEVER been busier! In fact the divisions transferred to Internal Troops are actually some of the most active in Russia, more so then they ever were as part of the Army.

 

[Big-E]

And I think US should support him in this

Big-E....several people have done some working out with current OOB for the Russian Army, and there are parts of the border which are held by vastly inadequate number of troops.

Now consider that we are not talking about US-Mexican border that allows cheap labour into the US.

We have the Korean border with all kind of garbage being smuggled in (like what Australians found on a North Korean vessel), we have Chinese pushing everything from fake merchandise to drugs and illegal arms, we have people being kidnapped, and illegals sneaking in to hold up trains and resource bases, then there are the good old Islamists, all kinds of smugglers from Pakistan and Afghanistan, Iranians trying to assert themselves in the Central Asian republics, import tax evasion, all sorts of health issues, white slavery, etc. etc.
Do you wonder why a stronger Army is popular with the public in Russia?

And all these issues don't stop at the Russian border but keep going on into Europe, and from there to US. Russian Border Guards and Internal Troops have NEVER been busier! In fact the divisions transferred to Internal Troops are actually some of the most active in Russia, more so then they ever were as part of the Army.

To compare monitering the DPRK/Russian border with that of US/Mexico is silly. What is it... 10 miles wide... gimme a break. It is the corruption of the society that lets that garbage get thru. If they really wanted it stopped they would have to have border guards that couldn't be bribed. They need reliable personal, not a bigger military.

 

[FutureTank]

To compare monitering the DPRK/Russian border with that of US/Mexico is silly. What is it... 10 miles wide... gimme a break. It is the corruption of the society that lets that garbage get thru. If they really wanted it stopped they would have to have border guards that couldn't be bribed. They need reliable personal, not a bigger military.

You are correct to a point. Its unfair to suggest mass corruption throughout the Russian military. In fact independent studies confirm that on average corruption in the military occurs no more frequently then in general society, and occurs more frequently in units which are clearly underfunded.
Border Guards actually receive significantly greater funding then other troops, and becuse most are active, there is less of the 'base life' to encourage corruption.

The real problem is that the borders have not received any significant surveillance technology since the break up of USSR. While few would have attempted border crossings during USSR, the preception of this inadequecy encourages far more to attempt the illegal crossing now then before, and sometimes these are organised operation on a fairly wide stretch of the border.

Of course this forum and thread are confined to the military side of life, so discussing social and economic impacts is OT, but since you appreciate the problem you no doubt also appreciate the complexity of the solution.

 

[Big-E]

I think corruption in the Russian military is THE major factor of her regaining her military might. I'm not saying Russian's at arms are stealing and being bribed because they are bad people. On the contrary, their motivations couldn't be any more noble... ie feeding their families. Putin even tried to give them a 35% pay raise back in 02' but every year inflation hit around the 18%mark which made them fall behind in PPP. The economy has to stabalize and pay must meet the needs of the military members and their families. Once this is addressed corruption will drop dramatically.

You are correct to a point. Its unfair to suggest mass corruption throughout the Russian military. In fact independent studies confirm that on average corruption in the military occurs no more frequently then in general society, and occurs more frequently in units which are clearly underfunded.

Funding requirements for the units doesn't increase personal pay... that is what matters.

 

[Ths]

I don't think Russia and the EU will get any closer.

It is true that in many way the EU is comparable to the expansion of the USA - especially in one aspect: It stops!

The ability to limit the ambition seems to be a prerequisite for success:
The Roman Empire stopped the expansion (except for minor boarder correction) in 9 a.D.
The US stopped late 19'th century - except for minor corrections.

I think the same has happened with the EU (Norway might at one point reconsider); but Russia no. I think the situation has stabilised on the eastern front. Nato and Europe has gained strategic depth.
I don't believe any more that Turkey will join. Call me over the top; but I think the behavior during the Muhammed crisis killed that option.

 

[FutureTank]

I don't think Russia and the EU will get any closer.

It is true that in many way the EU is comparable to the expansion of the USA - especially in one aspect: It stops!

The ability to limit the ambition seems to be a prerequisite for success:
The Roman Empire stopped the expansion (except for minor boarder correction) in 9 a.D.
The US stopped late 19'th century - except for minor corrections.

Ths...why do you think Rome stopped expansion in 9CE?
If US stopped expanding in late 19th century, then it must have been 1898
However I think it was more for reasons of capacity then desire.

EU is not capable of stoping. If a nation applies to join, or withdraw, the EU is obligated to consider. In the case of Russia, there is a far better claim then that of Norway or Turkey
After all, Russian troops have marched through far more capitals, so having them as part of EU may not be such a bad thing (except from Polish point of view maybe).
There are other benefits, and lots of Europeans used to take them before 1917. The space and oportunity Russia offers is unmatched in saturated European societies. It seems to me the Europeans will make that choice long before the politicians and bureaucrats will

 

[DragonKing786]

Sorry., i'm late in posting hihi...

But I would like to add that their is a possibility that Russia will rise to power again, but it will be behind China., in the next 2-3 decades., cause:

#1 Russia making money., selling weapons.
#2 China taking advantage copying weapons improving them., and modernizing their armed forces., after some of their cut downs in troop size.

Russia will in a sense as being as power would have key to some Europe blood life., for example oil and electricity, since EU and others are dependant on it (Russia supply 30% of european power).

Also., since US and Allies are stuck in Iraq and Afghanistan, its costing them more (defecit U.S. is in 10 Trillion Dollars). I will write more on this subject soon since i'm busy and don't have enough time., but this is just a very rough idea of things to come and so forth.

Oh forgot to mention U guyies might have heard about SCC group made by Russia and China some are seeing it as an alliance similar to NATO., which is worrying some US and other top politicians., but SCC group denies its a military allaince., considering they have already done about 2-3 war games and training.

 

[Big-E]

EU is not capable of stoping.

They draw the line at Turkey... they suspended talks.

 

[swerve]

...
Russia will in a sense as being as power would have key to some Europe blood life., for example oil and electricity, since EU and others are dependant on it (Russia supply 30% of european power).
...

25% of EU crude oil imports, 40% of EU gas imports, 13% of hard coal imports. That's a lot less than 30% of total energy. E.g. over half of EU coal consumption is domestic production & about half of gas.

 

[FutureTank]

I think corruption in the Russian military is THE major factor of her regaining her military might........The economy has to stabalize and pay must meet the needs of the military members and their families. Once this is addressed corruption will drop dramatically.

Funding requirements for the units doesn't increase personal pay... that is what matters.

Yes, of course you are right.

To your question (statement?) "How many Russian units meet funding requirements... "

The 210th division in Turkmenistan is, and so is the 76th Airborne (I think that's the one). Next is one of the air-assault divisions. There was a bit of problem retaining NCO specialists in 210th which is why the next division was airborne and not a motor-rifle division. The air-assault division is of course fairly mechanised, being sort of like 'light armoured' if I may call it that.

Slowly but surely...