Will Russia ever regain it's Military might?

[swerve]

For the size of China, don`t they have any oil deposits on land or coastal waters.

Yes, lots. But consider the USA: about the same area as China, with <25% of the population. And the USA imports more oil than China.

China used to be self-sufficient in oil (one irony is that the first sizable onshore oilfields found are in territory which was controlled by Japan before WW2, so if they'd been found earlier there would have been no Pearl Harbour), but despite energetic oli exploration & vigorous exploitation of all discoveries, the economy has outpaced oil consumption.

 

[Grand Danois]

Considering the future, it seems clear that Russia will continue its integration into the European Union, and this is just a matter of time. It is being aided by continuing and steadily increasing immigration and emigration which now sees hundreds of thousands of Russians living in Europe while a somewhat smaller number of Europeans now work and increasingly live in Russia.

[...]

Comments please

Nearly choked on my coffee when I saw this.

Russia, as a nation, has too big an ego and is way to different in its identity, to possibly be absorbed in the EU. Interest diverge wildly from the West European members.

Seriously, the EU is not WTO, NAFTA or the UN. It would be like the US accepting Mexico or Venezuela as a new state.

 

[rrrtx]

I think their underlying economic strength is the most important factor. Oil and gas exports do not in and of themselves give you a real diversified, healthy, and resilient economy. The Venezuelans are learning this, or will learn it soon as well. Once the prices come down again (and they will) there really isn't much else that supports the Russian economy. Weapons exports. Aluminum and titanium. Vodka?

There isn't really a strong middle class. No commercial legal system. Organized crime appears to run much of the economy.

You can't support an expensive modern military without the GDP to back it up. Economic maturity needs to come first.

 

[.pt]

Great Dane,

Lol, Venezuela a Gringo state, great comparison.nfloorl:
I can already see Chavez mimicking Che; "revolucion o muerte, Caracas for capital!!"
Anyway, i agree with you, it would be very difficult to integrate Russia in EU for the next 20 years, but that doesn´t mean we couldn´t have some special relation with them, economically and perhaps political/military, if the conditions exist. Afterall we do share some common interests...
It´s a question of whom is on the Kremlin, and its political direction.
FutureTank,
what i mean is that some event not possible to forecast, within Russia , or that involves Russia, may throw your predictions off track very easily. 30 Years is just a very longtime to make accurate predictions. Specially valid in a potentially volatile country such as Russia, as i regard it still, despit Putin, and its consolidation in power.
.pt

 

[eckherl]

Yes, lots. But consider the USA: about the same area as China, with <25% of the population. And the USA imports more oil than China.

China used to be self-sufficient in oil (one irony is that the first sizable onshore oilfields found are in territory which was controlled by Japan before WW2, so if they'd been found earlier there would have been no Pearl Harbour), but despite energetic oli exploration & vigorous exploitation of all discoveries, the economy has outpaced oil consumption.

Thank you for the information.

 

[eckherl]

I think their underlying economic strength is the most important factor. Oil and gas exports do not in and of themselves give you a real diversified, healthy, and resilient economy. The Venezuelans are learning this, or will learn it soon as well. Once the prices come down again (and they will) there really isn't much else that supports the Russian economy. Weapons exports. Aluminum and titanium. Vodka?

There isn't really a strong middle class. No commercial legal system. Organized crime appears to run much of the economy.

You can't support an expensive modern military without the GDP to back it up. Economic maturity needs to come first.

With countries like China and India who`s economies have grown at drastic rates, I wouldn`t count on oil prices dropping in the near future.

 

[Big-E]

Considering the future, it seems clear that Russia will continue its integration into the European Union, and this is just a matter of time. It is being aided by continuing and steadily increasing immigration and emigration which now sees hundreds of thousands of Russians living in Europe while a somewhat smaller number of Europeans now work and increasingly live in Russia.

comments please

People are moving out of Russia because it is a dump. They make less in a year than I make in one paycheck. While the economy is doing better it isn't helping the average Russian. The country is amongst the most corrupt in the world. It is basically run by organized crime. The rich criminals get richer and the law abiding poor get poorer. The Europeans that move to Russia are exploiting it's resources for their own gain... they aren't helping the country.

 

[FutureTank]

muslim interests are mutual with Russia.

Ths....care to elaborate?

 

[FutureTank]

Nearly choked on my coffee when I saw this.

Russia, as a nation, has too big an ego and is way to different in its identity, to possibly be absorbed in the EU. Interest diverge wildly from the West European members.

Seriously, the EU is not WTO, NAFTA or the UN. It would be like the US accepting Mexico or Venezuela as a new state.

It seems to me that recent history may have deminished that ego somewhat...but then consider France

Most people choose to recognize only formal relationships in the international arena, however I look at the informal relationships also.

For example some people have neighboughrs who are closer to them then their family in many ways, and other will share with their best friends what they would not with their siblings.

It seems to me same applies to USA and Mexico. By and large Mexico is codependent with the USA, including in the matter of illegal migrants.
Venezuela also allows USA to have a regional 'threat' that aids its own 'ego'

EU is not WTO, but it is becoming a more effective structure as time goes by, evolving from the EEC/NATO quite substantially as it goes. Consider evolution of United States as it is today. History is replete with examples of unifying trends and all European countries begun as a collection of smaller entities that merged through various mechanisms to become what they are today.

 

[FutureTank]

there really isn't much else that supports the Russian economy. Weapons exports. Aluminum and titanium. Vodka?

There isn't really a strong middle class. No commercial legal system. Organized crime appears to run much of the economy.

You can't support an expensive modern military without the GDP to back it up. Economic maturity needs to come first.

I think you need to take a deeper look at Russian economy.
It may be an interesting exercise to have a look at the US economy prior to WW1 when it was a net importer, exporting mostly resources. Times change.

 

[FutureTank]

People are moving out of Russia because it is a dump. They make less in a year than I make in one paycheck. While the economy is doing better it isn't helping the average Russian. The country is amongst the most corrupt in the world. It is basically run by organized crime. The rich criminals get richer and the law abiding poor get poorer. The Europeans that move to Russia are exploiting it's resources for their own gain... they aren't helping the country.

Big-E, you need a BIG lesson in US history because if 'Russia' is replaced with USA, then your description matches that of USA for much of 19th and early 20th centuries.

Russia is undergoing a very siginificant change that affects its environment, society, political culture, economy and yes, the military. However I'm confident that given trends in other similar transitions elsewhere, and coupled with impact of modern technology Russia will make this transition much faster then the predicted 60 years I was making 10 years ago.

 

[FutureTank]

People are moving out of Russia because it is a dump. They make less in a year than I make in one paycheck.

I think you are very subjective in your statements.

 

[Grand Danois]

It seems to me that recent history may have deminished that ego somewhat...but then consider France

I had that in the back of my head too.

Most people choose to recognize only formal relationships in the international arena, however I look at the informal relationships also.

For example some people have neighboughrs who are closer to them then their family in many ways, and other will share with their best friends what they would not with their siblings.

The current situation is that EU and Russia are not at an eye to eye level. And then there is the former Eastern Bloc to consider. Example: Poland made a huge fuss recently over the energy/trade negotiations - only to annoy and assert itself agianst Russia.

It seems to me same applies to USA and Mexico. By and large Mexico is codependent with the USA, including in the matter of illegal migrants.

Yes, to some degree. Would the Americans like to expand the US with Mexico? Doubt it.

Venezuela also allows USA to have a regional 'threat' that aids its own 'ego'

Hehe.

EU is not WTO, but it is becoming a more effective structure as time goes by, evolving from the EEC/NATO quite substantially as it goes. Consider evolution of United States as it is today. History is replete with examples of unifying trends and all European countries begun as a collection of smaller entities that merged through various mechanisms to become what they are today.

But the evolution of the US was organic in that sense - if you discount the Civil War, which was about foreign trade and industrial policies. (We shouldn't discuss the latter example in this thread.)

Special relationship - likely. Fully fledged member - I don't see it. And the trends aren't in favour.

 

[Ths]

Swerve and eckherl:

One of the major Chinese energy problems is the poor efficiency in their production, which lead to an overconsumption of energy relative to production.

I saw somewhere that a very large part of the Chinese Railroads capacity was used for coal transport. Can You confirm that Swerve??

 

[Ths]

Future Tank: Yes the important muslim states are oilexporters and so is Russia - both are thus interested i high energy prices.

 

[Ths]

Future Tank (reply to Big E): I also subscribe to the conviction that fly-boys are overpaid.:devil

 

[Big-E]

I think you are very subjective in your statements.

Between my pay and housing stipened and or CSP I make over 3,000 USD bi-weekly. That is more than enlisted Russian members make in a year.

 

[Big-E]

Future Tank (reply to Big E): I also subscribe to the conviction that fly-boys are overpaid.:devil

We don't get paid more than anybody else with the same rank and years in service.

 

[Ths]

Grand Danois: I agree much with Your post; but must elaborate on Mex Usa.

Mexican illegal immigrants supply the US with a large quantity of cheap - partly seasonal labour - and enforcing the immigration laws is not seen everywhere as a good thing.

It is a delicate question as many well to do families in f.i. California have illigal immigrants as servants and handymen. They know the immigrants aren't being treated nicely; but....

 

[Ths]

Sorry Big E: I couldn't resist the chance of a cheapshot.

You have a point though: Some years back high schoolgirls were asked what their career aim was: I don't remember the figure; but an astonishing high number said: "Dollar prostitute."

If that is the best a country can offer the more intelligent (and I've seen some of their high school math) girls - well in my book you are pretty close to a dump.