While I agree, their rather lack of regard on who they sell to does influence their sales somewhat.
Lack of regard on who to sell? Who do you mean by that?
Will Russia ever regain it's Military might?
- Thread starter Francis
- Start date
Lack of regard on who to sell? Who do you mean by that?
LOL.
Who the hell wants to attack a country with thousands of nukes that has highly advanced intercept evasion systems built-in (with the lastest topol-m variants) -
*I think* even the US with NATO combine dare NOT to touch Russia for now, not until a working ABM system is in place and even then it is still highly doubtful.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #44
Chechen Rebels would want to attack Russia, against terrorism is Russia effective in repeling terrorist?
powerslavenegi
New Member
My two paisa's
1.The new world order ensures no one is supreme .IOW regardless of ones conventional arsenal even a small adversary possesing Nukes is a serious threat .
2.Russia right now is going through a consolidation phase (something which is as a result of its reckless pursuit of weaponisation during the cold war).Having said that what people forget is that even after disintegration of SU it has a vast range of natural resources and oil reserves,its ecnomy is slowly coming to the terms with the Capitalist model and their Military H/W and other Engineering expertise is still sought after by the third world countries.
3.A decent literacy rate a very light population pressure over land(unlike China or India or asian countries) and self sufficiency in areas of agriculture and manufacturing ensure that Russian is gonna be a developed country in near future.Whether they wish to flex their miltary muscle or not is enirely their wish.
1.The new world order ensures no one is supreme .IOW regardless of ones conventional arsenal even a small adversary possesing Nukes is a serious threat .
2.Russia right now is going through a consolidation phase (something which is as a result of its reckless pursuit of weaponisation during the cold war).Having said that what people forget is that even after disintegration of SU it has a vast range of natural resources and oil reserves,its ecnomy is slowly coming to the terms with the Capitalist model and their Military H/W and other Engineering expertise is still sought after by the third world countries.
3.A decent literacy rate a very light population pressure over land(unlike China or India or asian countries) and self sufficiency in areas of agriculture and manufacturing ensure that Russian is gonna be a developed country in near future.Whether they wish to flex their miltary muscle or not is enirely their wish.
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Russian demographics are with its current trends a problem wrt the huge area Russia has to take care of. Notwithstanding the resistance in the Russian military to deal with this comprehensively.
Population
2003: 145 m
2020: 139 m
2040: 127 m
And that is not taking the age and gender composition into account.
Too Few Good Men - The Security Implications of Russian Demographics (RAND)
Even with expanded procurement and better technology, a military is a product of the society that surrounds it. Living conditions in general, health, wealth, outlook, determines the material for recruitment/conscription.
Population
2003: 145 m
2020: 139 m
2040: 127 m
And that is not taking the age and gender composition into account.
Too Few Good Men - The Security Implications of Russian Demographics (RAND)
Even with expanded procurement and better technology, a military is a product of the society that surrounds it. Living conditions in general, health, wealth, outlook, determines the material for recruitment/conscription.
Last edited:
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #47
is there a effective approach to settle this problem?
Last edited by a moderator:
One of the major reasons for the down shift in the life expectancy in Russia is because of Alcoholism. Russia has one of the highest alcoholism rates in all the world. Liver cancer and other related diseases have sky rocketed in recent years. In the past few years when there was a delay in the shipment of the government vodka stamps to vodka bottlers the country nearly came a complete halt. Russia should be concerning its self with domestic issues more then a possible threat from NATO.
Grand Danois
Entertainer
The article lays out the problem and gives some options/ideas. You are welcome to read the article and return with your reflections on it. It's only 8 quickly read pages.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #50
sorry i am having problems with my computer .The article lays out the problem and gives some options/ideas. You are welcome to read the article and return with your reflections on it. It's only 8 quickly read pages.
According the articles the situation is looking pretty bleak. With a declining population, a poor health and education system, and other problems, I can understand better why Putin is worried about NATO influence in the region. Though Russia's priorities should be improving their social infrastructures not their military. Why are the developing a new nuclear SLBM when the average male is dying at the age of 59! To many of the Cold War soldiers are still in power and they are holding back the country from solving a lot important internal problems.
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Military reforms deal with security, but only with symptoms on the societal level.
Increasing the domestic part of the GDP/capita should be an issue as it puts cash in the hands of the ordinary citizen, and not relying on export of energy which puts the cash in the coffers of Kremlin. Then families could actually afford to have children (note the abortion rate). Spending on the military - which does not wish to reform - whilst the society behind cannot support it in the long term is a poor piece of planning.
That surplus Russia is currently enjoying would be much better spent on developing the economy/health care/education - especially from a long term security perspective.
The future strength of Russia lies in the people that populate it, and not in prestigious big ticket items.
Increasing the domestic part of the GDP/capita should be an issue as it puts cash in the hands of the ordinary citizen, and not relying on export of energy which puts the cash in the coffers of Kremlin. Then families could actually afford to have children (note the abortion rate). Spending on the military - which does not wish to reform - whilst the society behind cannot support it in the long term is a poor piece of planning.
That surplus Russia is currently enjoying would be much better spent on developing the economy/health care/education - especially from a long term security perspective.
The future strength of Russia lies in the people that populate it, and not in prestigious big ticket items.
Re: Older equipment.
I think Russia under Putin will try to reclaim some of thier past power and "glory". He is steadily doing away with democracy. With his grab of the oil, natural gas and other commodies, he is obtaining a lot of cash to pay for upgrading or modernization. And doesn't Russia have equipment that was good in the past that could be upgraded? Much like our B-52, which has lasted generations.:unknown
I think Russia under Putin will try to reclaim some of thier past power and "glory". He is steadily doing away with democracy. With his grab of the oil, natural gas and other commodies, he is obtaining a lot of cash to pay for upgrading or modernization. And doesn't Russia have equipment that was good in the past that could be upgraded? Much like our B-52, which has lasted generations.:unknown
It's a four letter word that starts with F...
I think the factor that Grand Danois is pointing at - The decreasing population, and the causes for the decline - is the most important in respect to long term evaluation of Russian potential.
The rusting tanks and ships is the near term criteria.
The medium term is the interesting. Considering the development of coastal vessels, it would indicate a fairly low level of ambition.
Big E: Your suggestion to the problem is at best only a part answer. There are enough pregnancies, but they are terminated - either directly by abortion or demgraphically by social misery.
As Grand Danois point out: The downward slide of population and alchohol related disease does not point to a society capeable of reform.
In my view it is only now getting apparent: The extend of the damage that communism as system has done to Russia.
The rusting tanks and ships is the near term criteria.
The medium term is the interesting. Considering the development of coastal vessels, it would indicate a fairly low level of ambition.
Big E: Your suggestion to the problem is at best only a part answer. There are enough pregnancies, but they are terminated - either directly by abortion or demgraphically by social misery.
As Grand Danois point out: The downward slide of population and alchohol related disease does not point to a society capeable of reform.
In my view it is only now getting apparent: The extend of the damage that communism as system has done to Russia.
FutureTank
Banned Member
It seems to me that this is a very simple question for a very complex set of issues.
Neither power, not 'respect' is measured in military strength only, however given the forum, the answer must be yes.
Considering the future, it seems clear that Russia will continue its integration into the European Union, and this is just a matter of time. It is being aided by continuing and steadily increasing immigration and emigration which now sees hundreds of thousands of Russians living in Europe while a somewhat smaller number of Europeans now work and increasingly live in Russia.
Militarily there is a substantial degree of resurgence in the military tradition and ethos within the forces. Equipment is being upgraded and modified to maintain its viability, and there is increasing degree of professionalism in the forces, including protecting the rights of service personnel. This is ensuring that military service is becoming a more attractive option as a career choice.
Russia has strategic demands made unique by its geographic size. Its strategic and operational doctrines were developed to address this based on experience gained during WW2. Aside from Germany, Russia has the most extensive experience in land warfare on the planet.
Russia developed, develops and will continue to develop weapon systems that are tailored to this doctrine. At the same time the Russian military is eager to learn and integrate any advances or methods developed elsewhere as they had done since the formation of the Russian state. History shows that they are well able to integrate and innovate independently but simultaneously.
Russia is likely to play an important role in future European security and defence policy given current and projected threat indicators. This is not a new role for Russia, and it is a role it had played successfully in the past.
Russia has only ever been defeated once, by Mongols. This taught Russians an important lesson on unity, and Russia is unlikely to fragment further, and is likely to reintegrate at least economically and militarily Belorus and Ukraine into a newly expanded Federation.
The matter of honour has much to do with self-esteem.
Russia's self-esteem has been severely shaken by the economic depression of the like not seen since the late 1920s. At this time most afflicted societies were also stricken by various demographic afflictions that caused among others reduction in birth-rate and life expectancy age. In the USA this led to large scale substance abuse leading to Prohibition and real war on manufacture of alcoholic substances.
Another manifestation not witnessed since the 'Great' Depression of the past century has been the emergence of oligarchy. However this is being dealt with, and there are signs that more and more enterprises are able to conduct business within standards acceptable in Europe.
The crime wave that erupted since 1991 is also being prosecuted more vigorously in recent times since de-criminalisation of the police and internal troops command structure drives by the Putin Administration.
As the degree of internal security for the population increases, and in turn leads to greater economic activity, increased revenues sponsored by government's investment in capital and infrastructure upgrading will lead to larger funds availability for defence budgets.
While Russia is unlikely now to be involved in a conflict with Europe given the two have approached each other in socio-economic outlook to something resembling neither socialism nor absolute liberal capitalism, but a 'happy' middle ground, the danger still exists of a conflict with other societies where significant gaps in world-view exist.
There are only two such societies, China and the Islamic world. While the goal of the Islamic world appears, in its extreme and ideal, to be the World, China would be happy with possession or the resource-rich Russian Far East. Given the escalation of resource scarcity and therefore prices, the Japanese are also likely to express a desire for, and forcefully pursue acquisition of strategic resource rich areas to preserve standards of living despite rapidly aging population that can not sustain this strategy in the long term.
Russia’s ability to retain its Far East territory may become its ‘entry card’ into EU by integrating resource infrastructure into the European markets, and therefore justifying European defence participation in Far East region, including as part of protecting large scale national industrial investments in the region.
Russia of all European states retains the longest common border with the Islamic world. It also has Islam’s enduring hate for a history of conflicts going back to the days of the Ottoman Empire. It doesn’t help that the largest Russian speaking population outside of the FSU now resides in Israel. This has led to unprecedented closeness in socio-economic ties between the countries, including cooperation in and transfer of military technology and experience in counter-terrorism warfare.
Based on the above analysis, I would argue that Russia is likely to regain it’s standing within the international power structure within a generation (20 years) of the break-up of the FSU, and resume its leadership in international policy influence within another generation. By 2030 Russia is likely to have restored its international prestige and reacquire renewed respect for its achievements. This is likely to be hastened by any significant regional conflicts that tend to accelerate economic development as had occurred with the United States in the early and mid 20th Century and Europe in the 19th Century.
Comments please
FutureTank
Banned Member
Future, essencially i concur with your analisys, but trying to put in perspective developments for the next 30 years is like reading tarot cards, for russia or anyother countries.
At the beginning of this new century, alot of things are changing way too fast to make predictions so far in the future. I wonder what the next 5 years are going to be like, let alone 30 years.
Your view is a possible one, but we cannot discard possible events that disrupt entirely that line of thinking.
Possible conflicts with China, and some Islamic states, as you pointed may lead to other developments.
But the country to watch will be China. Will China be able to maintain it´s regime as economical development icreases and more of its population are aware of whats going on in the outside world? This alone may affect more Russia than we think.
Will oil sustain forever Russian growth, or will its industries adapt and reemerge as global players?
Too many variables...
.pt
At the beginning of this new century, alot of things are changing way too fast to make predictions so far in the future. I wonder what the next 5 years are going to be like, let alone 30 years.
Your view is a possible one, but we cannot discard possible events that disrupt entirely that line of thinking.
Possible conflicts with China, and some Islamic states, as you pointed may lead to other developments.
But the country to watch will be China. Will China be able to maintain it´s regime as economical development icreases and more of its population are aware of whats going on in the outside world? This alone may affect more Russia than we think.
Will oil sustain forever Russian growth, or will its industries adapt and reemerge as global players?
Too many variables...
.pt
FutureTank
Banned Member
It helps if you know what the Tarot cards are based on
I'm not just using a 'christal ball' here
Forecasting trend is not so hard. For exapmle I know that tomorrow you will spend 6-8 hours sleeping, will eat at least three meals and drink at least 1 litre of liquid (suggest 2), and will use a computer
Societies also have patterns of behaviour in a way predetermined to a large degree, and they also respond to stimuli.
Like what? I have not discarded these possibilities, but in fact emphasised them. These are contingencies within the analysis and can be integrated intot he policy decision making as such.
China needs to be watched, but I don't expect it to be a significant threat while it remains a totalitarian state.
Economic development has its own dangers fro the developee.
Actually it seems to me that relative poverty of Russian population comparatively to USSR will cause adoption of advanced alternatives to oil faster then elsewhere, and this will probably help Russian automotive industries to gain substantial market leadership in the long run. This will also contribute to resurgence in re-equipping land forces with vehicles based on these new technologies that will reduce overall logistic tail and make ground troops much more flexible.