The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[rsemmes]

-Friday...
A Russian ballistic missile strike in Ukraine’s Kyiv region has killed 10 people and ⁠injured almost 100 at ⁠the site of a defence industry event that Volodymyr Zelenskyy said should never have taken place. Pictures posted online by the Ukraine Emergency Services showed teams sifting through piles of rubble at the site north of the capital, adjacent to several houses, after Friday’s attack.
“Of course, the cause of this attack ⁠is Russian missiles, nothing but Russian terror,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address.

Ukraine war briefing: Russia launches deadly attack on weapons exhibition near Kyiv

Zelenskyy says defence industry event should not have taken place; US influencer Laura Loomer visits Kyiv. What we know on day 1,613

www.theguardian.com

-Saturday...
Twelve people were killed, including five children, in an drone attack ⁠on a holiday camp in a Russian-held part of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, Russian-installed local authorities said on Saturday, ⁠accusing Ukraine of deliberately attacking civilians. Kyiv did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Ukraine war briefing: Iran accuses Kyiv of deadly attack on Iranian vessel in Caspian Sea

Zelenskyy says Iran is using Russian satellite images to help direct strikes in Middle East. What we know on day 1,614

www.theguardian.com

So, that is "nothing but Ukrainian terror", like "war crimes and undermining Black Sea security by attacking civilian merchant ships" (S. Koretskyi). I have called Zelenski "delusional", maybe it's just that he, together with the Prime Minister, are very good at doublethink... or that they suffer some dissociative disorder.

 

[crest]

a bit of info on the russian arena system it seems there loaded manualy at least from the video..looks like about 12 rounds and other defences

 

[Feanor]

i would presume that fact lends creadibilty to your theory

Things will be murky for a while. For example, we don't really have the full picture on what happened. Does Russia view the system as successful based on this event? Obviously the column didn't get where it's going, but even a 50% effective APS against FPV drones could be seen as worthwhile. We also don't know if there are production bottle-necks. So if we don't see many Arena-equipped tanks in coming months is it that they're not available? Is it that the system is deemed not good enough and undergoing additional development? Or is it that they're being held back for when Russia thinks they can re-introduce some level of mechanized warfare? Or are they being held back because interceptor stocks are low and you don't want to risk valuable assets when they will be less effective?

 

[KipPotapych]

Things that didn’t happen…



“Conventional sorties over DONETSK”, hitting a target about 7.5 km from the frontline with a bomb able to “glide” over 75 km. Google and Deepstate:





Following the logic, what could be concluded for the Russian bombs dropping 70-130 km behind the frontline?


Since there is a space for one more attachment. The recent Loomer popularity contest ends with her regular racist bullshit:



Also, shouldn’t these type of articles start with “Not to be a conspiracy theorist”?

Exclusive: In a Ukrainian bomb shelter, Laura Loomer explains shift on Russia’s war

Laura Loomer became infamous for spreading conspiracy theories online. Now, as she travels across Ukraine to see the damage inflicted by Russia in its yearslong war, she wants to admit that she fell for some falsehoods of her own.

apnews.com

She is gonna make bank on this real media trip. I mean is there an outlet that didn’t talk about this schizo in the past week or so? The daftness is rather spectacular. I am not sure, is it to validate the narrative or what is the goal of free advertising for this parasite that calculated rather well to cash in?

 

[KipPotapych]

A thought on that ^ Loomer bit there. Imagine that it is true what she said and she thinks she has not seen a single muslim in Ukraine. Consider how narrow these people’s understanding is and how clear their bigoted profiling is, simply based on looks of an individual. Could it be more stupid? Probably not much more so, but… I wonder if she took a tour to Kazan, Tatarstan, Russia, would she be truly bewildered about all those mosques and who they are for since the absolute majority of residents are white folks?

Someone should shoot her an idea to take a trip to Kazan next so that she can reinforce some bullshit narrative for her low-IQ readership how islam can make almost an entire city of white Russian people listen to namaz over a megaphone several times a day. This is some mind-blowing stuff! On the second thought, I could probably make good money myself feeding garbage to the borderline mentally-challenged individuals. This is not the first time I had that thought, to be honest. I mean someone will make bank regardless. Why not me? In fact, I am obviously fairly decent at pushing the Russian propaganda and I can certainly improve significantly if I got paid for it. I can be just as good pushing the other side’s fantasies if they paid better too. I mean the ideas I could feed these people about covid, white christian minority, other existential threats to their liberty, etc. I can literally show them why they are wrong, but why they are even more so right! Maybe with this post even, the goal is to discredit Loomer, while seeding the idea how the other imbecile influencers (as in influencing imbeciles) may be right, the ones who hit Russia instead (I saw Carlson and Owens mentioned… perhaps, another name I do not recall). Imma gon’be famous!


Anyway, as fun as it is… Ukraine hitting Iranian civilian/military vessel in the Caspian Sea, what’s that about? And why now? So much nonsense on the subject too. Like this, for example:



And the nonsense part applies to both of those individuals. Iran is not going to hit Ukraine with ballistic missiles and Ukraine is not going to hit Iran with Flamingos. In case of the former, it is rather obvious why. In case of the latter, hitting northern-most part of Iran would be at the upper edge of the current UA capabilities, other factors aside. The proposal is rather dumb. So why?

Some have suggested (and celebrated, obviously) that Iran had supplied Russia with the menacing drones and other support, hence, all fair and square. Remnants of threats to Belarus come to mind. Except Belarus is just over the border and Iran is far away, without a direct reach. Accompanied by this:



Imagine Ukraine knowing more about the Russian satellite movement than any other (somewhat and/or very) developed nation. “We have recorded active Russian satellite surveillance”… And of the Gulf States, to boot. Those capabilities must be quite epic.

Kind of weird though, with such capabilities and promise of being educated on handling of the Iranian drone and missile strikes, with all that expertise… Oh, wait a second… Maybe there is something here of why and whatnot.

Also, imagine having information on satellite movement and expected Iranian strikes that others do not know about, while tweeting about it postmortem. But hey,



That is just some rando’s conclusion in the comments to the thread cited above. Everyone knows, however, that UA military is the real deal, unlike ‘Mericans.

In the meantime, on the Russian strikes on Ukrainian logistics:

 

[seaspear]

Things will be murky for a while. For example, we don't really have the full picture on what happened. Does Russia view the system as successful based on this event? Obviously the column didn't get where it's going, but even a 50% effective APS against FPV drones could be seen as worthwhile. We also don't know if there are production bottle-necks. So if we don't see many Arena-equipped tanks in coming months is it that they're not available? Is it that the system is deemed not good enough and undergoing additional development? Or is it that they're being held back for when Russia thinks they can re-introduce some level of mechanized warfare? Or are they being held back because interceptor stocks are low and you don't want to risk valuable assets when they will be less effective?

There are various sites claiming the Arenas failure and complete tank losses , this system from my reading was not mounted on the more capable t-90m but an upgraded t-72 variant how likely may this have been an experiment ?, is such a system scalable to other veicles like mobile artillery and troop carrier

 

[Feanor]

There are various sites claiming the Arenas failure and complete tank losses

I don't think it was a complete failure. I think we have at least one shot of it clearly working. There's a lot of missing footage so it's hard to be certain of much. We also didn't get shots of Ukraine finishing off the immobilized tanks (unless I somehow missed it) which is also suspicious.

this system from my reading was not mounted on the more capable t-90m but an upgraded t-72 variant how likely may this have been an experiment ?

I don't believe this is correct. We've seen T-90M with Arena-M installed, and reportedly the new T-90M2 variant will come with Arena-M standard, likely either later this year or next year. T-72B3s with Arena were seen even before the war in testing, it was in the works longer. But the plan is for both tanks to carry it.

is such a system scalable to other veicles like mobile artillery and troop carrier

Theoretically? Sure. Can Russia make enough? I have my doubts.

 

[KipPotapych]

While I saw some people talking about the failure of the system, I do not believe they are serious people. Most serious people commented positively. Those in contact with the AFU units that participated in the battle commented even more positively. For example:



As per Rob, this information is from the field. Note that he says “to stop” each tank, not “destroy” it. That’s a lot of drones. For context:



Consider, for example, that this is getting, not quite, but probably to the ball park of the turtle tanks, while retaining complete tank functionality. Sure, some turtles or sheds took up to 70 drones to make a dent, but 20 is probably getting closer to some average, I would think. But again, functionality is the key. Can’t say this is an insignificant development. Time will tell.

My best guess is the videos released so far do not show much of value and the full story. The reports also suggest, like Feanor mentioned, many vehicles were not destroyed, but only immobilized. It certainly did not stop UA to add 28 (!) RU tank losses to their list that day, along with 12 other armored vehicles, 3 MLRS, ridiculous number of artillery, etc.



There will probably be more clarity in a relatively near future. As well as the overall level of failure or success of the attack. My understanding is that they got some troops where intended. The same reports suggested that the tanks chewed up a good chunk of drones by themselves for a fair number of infantry to get through. Validity of these reports is currently unknown, of course. It seems to me now that more information is available that the initial reports of “Russians took Ukrainians by surprise, but they managed” refer to this exact situation with a functional APS and not the attack itself. We will see.

Another thing that should probably be noted is that this is not some secondary direction and an opportunistic try, but one of the most defended parts of the front with some of the most capable units defending it. Those who tell you that this was just another chunk of meat thrown into the grinder by the Russians for no reason are very likely wrong and you should probably consider muting/avoiding these sources.


On a separate note, my (I hope) last mention of Loomer (talk about free advertising!):



“…world saturated with fakes, lies, and pervasive propaganda”. Laughing. I mean this is effing Loomer we are talking about! People not familiar should take a minute to learn about the person and “fakes, lies, and propaganda” she has been spreading for years. Those three words would probably be the defining three if one asked to describe her in three words. Anyway, it is beyond mildly hilarious and ridiculous.

Also, the text on the board in the photo above reads as follows (except for what is covered by her arm):

Thank you for welcoming me to Ukraine to learn more about your country! I hope you will improve your rapid response and ability to communicate with Americans and President Trump about how grateful you are to Americans. Love, Laura Loomer

Very nuanced. Surely came from her heart and new found love for Ukraine. Laughing again.

 

[personaldesas]

I don't think it was a complete failure. I think we have at least one shot of it clearly working. There's a lot of missing footage so it's hard to be certain of much. We also didn't get shots of Ukraine finishing off the immobilized tanks (unless I somehow missed it) which is also suspicious.



I don't believe this is correct. We've seen T-90M with Arena-M installed, and reportedly the new T-90M2 variant will come with Arena-M standard, likely either later this year or next year. T-72B3s with Arena were seen even before the war in testing, it was in the works longer. But the plan is for both tanks to carry it.



Theoretically? Sure. Can Russia make enough? I have my doubts.

I am curious how the economics actually stack up on this , and compare to a tsar mangal, which seems to be near-free in cash at brigade level. AFAICT Arena-M comes out of the same radar and electronics capacity as air defence and EW, which feels like the more painful currency.

I mean this is effing Loomer we are talking about!

I am still curious what happened there. She shilled hard for Russia, and all of the sudden she switches and does the same for Ukraine. She was always clearly a person without integrity and full of shit, but this heel turn is quite something.

 

[rsemmes]

It seems that some engineer, or CEO, already had the idea...

PAC-3 ACE
Production may start in 2028... (of an already in production system.)
To reduce costs, Lockheed will "throttle back" some of the most expensive components, including solid rocket motors, which provide propulsion, and seekers, the sensors that detect and track incoming targets.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/lockheed-make-cheaper-patriot-interceptors-air-defense-demand-soars-2026-07-20/

So, a cheaper model is going to be even less effective... Is the FP-7.x going to be effective against the V-1?

 

[StobieWan]

While I saw some people talking about the failure of the system, I do not believe they are serious people. Most serious people commented positively. Those in contact with the AFU units that participated in the battle commented even more positively. For example:

View attachment 55274

As per Rob, this information is from the field. Note that he says “to stop” each tank, not “destroy” it. That’s a lot of drones. For context:

View attachment 55275

Consider, for example, that this is getting, not quite, but probably to the ball park of the turtle tanks, while retaining complete tank functionality. Sure, some turtles or sheds took up to 70 drones to make a dent, but 20 is probably getting closer to some average, I would think. But again, functionality is the key. Can’t say this is an insignificant development. Time will tell.

My best guess is the videos released so far do not show much of value and the full story. The reports also suggest, like Feanor mentioned, many vehicles were not destroyed, but only immobilized. It certainly did not stop UA to add 28 (!) RU tank losses to their list that day, along with 12 other armored vehicles, 3 MLRS, ridiculous number of artillery, etc.

View attachment 55276

There will probably be more clarity in a relatively near future. As well as the overall level of failure or success of the attack. My understanding is that they got some troops where intended. The same reports suggested that the tanks chewed up a good chunk of drones by themselves for a fair number of infantry to get through. Validity of these reports is currently unknown, of course. It seems to me now that more information is available that the initial reports of “Russians took Ukrainians by surprise, but they managed” refer to this exact situation with a functional APS and not the attack itself. We will see.

Another thing that should probably be noted is that this is not some secondary direction and an opportunistic try, but one of the most defended parts of the front with some of the most capable units defending it. Those who tell you that this was just another chunk of meat thrown into the grinder by the Russians for no reason are very likely wrong and you should probably consider muting/avoiding these sources.


On a separate note, my (I hope) last mention of Loomer (talk about free advertising!):

View attachment 55277

“…world saturated with fakes, lies, and pervasive propaganda”. Laughing. I mean this is effing Loomer we are talking about! People not familiar should take a minute to learn about the person and “fakes, lies, and propaganda” she has been spreading for years. Those three words would probably be the defining three if one asked to describe her in three words. Anyway, it is beyond mildly hilarious and ridiculous.

Also, the text on the board in the photo above reads as follows (except for what is covered by her arm):

Thank you for welcoming me to Ukraine to learn more about your country! I hope you will improve your rapid response and ability to communicate with Americans and President Trump about how grateful you are to Americans. Love, Laura Loomer

Very nuanced. Surely came from her heart and new found love for Ukraine. Laughing again.

I think the thing with Loomer is, we have to decipher why the switch ? Has she seen a re-evaluation in the white house and is now repositioning to reflect that ? I doubt she's made the switch out of any genuine moral grounds, put it that way.

Either way, it does seem to point to a sea-change in the far right as Loomer is usually seen as having good access and influence with Trump.

 

[PachkaSigaret]

I am still curious what happened there. She shilled hard for Russia, and all of the sudden she switches and does the same for Ukraine. She was always clearly a person without integrity and full of shit, but this heel turn is quite something.

I'm surprised Zelensky and Ukrainian officials are serenading her and giving her access. It's a bad look and all of the interviews she has conducted have been very cringe inducing, especially the Zelensky one.

 

[StobieWan]

I'm surprised Zelensky and Ukrainian officials are serenading her and giving her access. It's a bad look and all of the interviews she has conducted have been very cringe inducing, especially the Zelensky one.

She has access and influence - simple as that. Countries don't have friends, they have interests - and getting Trump and the far right crowd on-side with Ukraine is invaluable.

 

[rsemmes]

“America has no friends, only interests.” Henry Kissinger.
I am a bit surprised, I quoted that but a lot of people around here went right away for the freedom and democracy, western principles... and some other fairy tales.

Also attributed to Lord Palmerston or wrongly to Kissinger.

 

[motokah]

British statesman Lord Palmerston said in an 1848 speech: “We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.”

Summarised in modern english: “There are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests.”

IMHO, tools of war have changed with technology... but human nature did not.
Core concepts from Niccolo Machiavelli's "The Prince" are still relevant to this day.

 

[seaspear]

Re immobolised tanks were they recovered or destroyed by artillery ,were actual territorial gains documented from these attacks ,if Russia believes the arena is successful there will be more attacks using arena.
There has been a claim that Russian troops are stating that they are rationed to twenty litres of fuel a day,Im not sure if this just some areas but something like this if true would hamper movement

 

[swerve]

“America has no friends, only interests.” Henry Kissinger.
I am a bit surprised, I quoted that but a lot of people around here went right away for the freedom and democracy, western principles... and some other fairy tales.

Also attributed to Lord Palmerston or wrongly to Kissinger.

"freedom and democracy, western principles... and some other fairy tales" - you mean things which support the interests of the USA.

Think about it. How would, for example, cosying up too an openly expansionist nuclear-armed kleptocratic dictatorship support the interests of the USA? How would trashing long-established mutually beneficial relationships with rich, stable, peaceful states support the interests of the USA?

 

[rsemmes]

We think about it every time we read about it.

The British Empire was supporting Nigeria for the good of the Biafran people?
Maybe you heard about that dictator... Saddam Hussein, supported by the US, the UK and France.
We ended democracy in Iran and imposed the Shah for "freedom" or for "democracy"?
We support S. Arabia for its western principles and values or for the invasion of Yemen?
The eternal interest of any given government at any given time.

Off topic, BTW. As I said, I was surprised.

 

[swerve]

Sometimes it's a case of a lesser evil. But in any case, your whataboutism completely misses my point. You don't seem to have understood it at all.

Yes, it's off topic - but I was responding to your off topic post. Motes & beams.

 

[rsemmes]

Sometimes it's a case of a lesser evil. But in any case, your whataboutism completely misses my point. You don't seem to have understood it at all.
Yes, it's off topic - but I was responding to your off topic post. Motes & beams.

My response to a post. It was an off topic post? No. It was an off topic comment in the post? Well, it was describing reality, it cannot be that far off.

To your 2 questions: "any given government at any given time". I think he was talking of Ukrainian interests (even if I know the quote from Kissinger and the VN War), on the other hand, I think we keep Ukraine "in the fight" for our own interests.
I was surprised because bringing "The Prince" or realpolitik seems to be distasteful to some people, better not to mention it; not to see it.

A question of my own: "Lesser evil" is a form of whataboutism? (Of realpolitik or of hypocrisy?)