6th Generation Fighters Projects

[Musashi_kenshin]

Perhaps Canada and Australia should throw some money into GCAP in exchange for some of the UK's delivery slots.

Somehow I don't think that parliamentary procedures would allow it. You can't just sign a contract for tens of billions of dollars without some sort of legislative approval or at least departmental contract being awarded.

If the UK tried to collapse GCAP, the government would be dragged down by the unions. They've made it clear they see GCAP as a red line and something they won't allow to be cancelled. We might see some sort of mutual agreement that the UK gets later jet deliveries so doesn't have to stump up as much money early on, but outright cancellation is unlikely.

 

[John Fedup]

Somehow I don't think that parliamentary procedures would allow it. You can't just sign a contract for tens of billions of dollars without some sort of legislative approval or at least departmental contract being awarded.

If the UK tried to collapse GCAP, the government would be dragged down by the unions. They've made it clear they see GCAP as a red line and something they won't allow to be cancelled. We might see some sort of mutual agreement that the UK gets later jet deliveries so doesn't have to stump up as much money early on, but outright cancellation is unlikely.

Understood, cancellation and workshare are not on the table, perhaps in the distant future wrt the latter. I see GCAP as an alternative long term option for the RCAF, perhaps sooner given the endless upgrade delays with the F-35 and the eroding US-Canada relationship.

 

[John Fedup]

Possibly the first view of the F-47 flying .....or yet another 6th Gen prototype.

Mysterious Next-Gen Aircraft Allegedly Spotted Near Area 51 - The Aviationist

 

[FormerDirtDart]

Possibly the first view of the F-47 flying .....or yet another 6th Gen prototype.

Mysterious Next-Gen Aircraft Allegedly Spotted Near Area 51 - The Aviationist

It looks very very sinilar to the X-36

McDonnell Douglas X-36 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[John Fedup]

It looks very very sinilar to the X-36

McDonnell Douglas X-36 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Does look very similar for sure. A 30+ year old design which apparently didn’t progress. Perhaps something was discovered that makes the design relevant today and it has become the F-47. Big win for Boeing if this is true.

 

[Terran]

Well at the time and even today the optimization of Stealth is vs X Band Radars. The Russo and Chinese have tried to counter this L and S Bands and though those can “See” a Very low observable aircraft based of returns from vertical stabilizers but those radar bands cannot complete the kill chain.
The F47 (if this is part of that program) is basically a complete redux of the F22 program as we curtailed the order so dramatically that it’s hard to justify the SLEPs.
However where Raptors were designed to hunt Flankers, Fulcrums and Russian Tac air. This program has to consider China and the Tyrany of the Pacific so range is a big factor. So might as well “trim the fat” make it as efficient a cruising fighter with as low an RCS across the spectrum so it can perch on high and snipe any comers.
so yeah it makes sense for Boeing to have used some X36 DNA.

 

[John Fedup]

Here's TWZ's take on the thermal image of what might be the F-47.

Is This A Glimpse Of The Aircraft That Gave Birth To The F-47?

 

[John Fedup]

Some more background information on 6th Gen development history from TWZ.

Area 51 Mystery Aircraft Prompts Interest In "Christmas Tree" Stealth Fighter Concept

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/german-french-leaders-unable-resolve-fcas-fighter-jet-dispute-sources-say-2026-06-08/

"The leaders of Germany and France have agreed to scrap a landmark project to develop and build a new-generation fighter jet, officials said on Monday, bowing to industrial rivalries over Europe's most ambitious defence programme. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz ‌and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed the troubled project on the sidelines of the EU-Western Balkans summit in Montenegro last week and concluded that there was no prospect of breaking months of deadlock between arms firms involved in the plan, German officials said."

It's sensible for them to pull the plug. France can now develop a successor to Rafale, albeit a less ambitious version of FCAS that is more 5th than 6th generation.

As for Germany, given they wouldn't go with the F-47 they're now free to become the first non-partner customer of GCAP.

 

[StevoJH]

As for Germany, given they wouldn't go with the F-47 they're now free to become the first non-partner customer of GCAP.

Otherwise maybe the GCAP Partners either offer Airbus an opportunity to "buy in" to the program or Germany goes it alone with an Airbus developed alternative platform.

Is it possible for Airbus to develop their own platform, but make an agreement to leverage some of the electronics developed for GCAP? Or are the systems too integrated with the individual platform to allow that?

 

[koxinga]

Options for Germany seems to be:

1. Work with Saab
2. Buy a share in GCAP program or buy it off the shelf
3. Wait for the F-47 - (unsure if there will be an exportable version)
4. Build their own - (cost, as sole developer.)

 

[Ananda]

With German become hinderences for few times on Eurojet export, I do wonder if other GCAP Partners want to bring German as the partnership members. Perhaps Airbus German partner with SAAB can be the best option.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Options for Germany seems to be:

1. Work with Saab
2. Buy a share in GCAP program or buy it off the shelf
3. Wait for the F-47 - (unsure if there will be an exportable version)
4. Build their own - (cost, as sole developer.)

1. Possible, but it would mean effectively returning to square 1 and losing a lot of time. Certainly nothing would be in the air until the 2040s, maybe nearer the 2050s.
2. It's too late to buy into the project. The contracts have already been signed for design and development, we're just waiting on the final funding to be confirmed. Japan has repeatedly said it's against new people joining as full partners. Germany would need to ask for emergency negotiations now and have a huge bag of cash on the table payable immediately, not "maybe sometime". If there are no such emergency negotiations, the best Germany could get is local assembly of its own planes.
3. High risk factor as you've noted.
4. See scenario 1, but it costing even more.

 

[John Fedup]

I saw an article earlier about Japan being annoyed with the UK wrt the slow funding rate on GCAP. Clearly the UK has money problems given the slow pace of other defence projects and the current government not really planning any reductions in social spending. This might lead Japan to consider German entry where the UK might have to yield some production to Germany. At the very least, a pressure tactic for Japan to get the UK to get serious.

WRT the F-47 for Germany, big assumption on export availability. I wonder if the US would allow NG to partner with Germany on F/A XX assuming its capability is suitable for German needs? Would be a good option for France’s naval aviation requirement but France/US and their respective defence contractors would be no better than the FCAS partnership. Needless to say if the F/A XX is awarded to Boeing this option is not likely either.

 

[StingrayOZ]

Japan might be willing to let German in if it brings forward production timelines. Not as a partner, as something else. Tier II. UK is tight with money, so maybe the UK can work out a reciprocal arrangement with Germany, some how.

Looming behind this is Germany's drone program.

The German forums are hilarious. Everyone is joking how it will also need to be a frigate, and offer strategic lift, but Germany won't be able to work out the workshare amongst itself.

 

[koxinga]

I see the prospect of any export variant of 6th generation US platforms (F-47, F/A XX) as very dim and remote.

It is a function of the market as well as American priorities. For the US, replacing the F-22 and recapitalising their fleet is the priority and the strategy for export likely rest largely on F-35 with 6th like upgrades (5.5 gen/++ , whatever you call it)

Traditionally, UK and Japan would be target buyers for a 6th generation platform; but these will go with the GCAP route. European NATO partners will then either find a Euro solution (GCAP or depending what France and Germany does) or buy that F-35++ since smaller countries (e.g Benlux) might be ok with 80% of a 6th gen.

You are then left with Australia that would have the desire and budget for a 6th gen platform, maybe a Singapore or Taiwan. IMO this market will be too small to justify that export F-47 to exist.

 

[John Fedup]

I see the prospect of any export variant of 6th generation US platforms (F-47, F/A XX) as very dim and remote.[QUOTE}

Likely correct for the F-47, F/A XX assuming NG, maybe possible.

You are then left with Australia that would have the desire and budget for a 6th gen platform, maybe a Singapore or Taiwan. IMO this market will be too small to justify that export F-47 to exist.

Again, a NG F/A XX might be an option. Export orders would lower costs for the USN which is looking to extra money to fund all sorts of cash starved projects.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

I saw an article earlier about Japan being annoyed with the UK wrt the slow funding rate on GCAP. Clearly the UK has money problems given the slow pace of other defence projects and the current government not really planning any reductions in social spending. This might lead Japan to consider German entry where the UK might have to yield some production to Germany. At the very least, a pressure tactic for Japan to get the UK to get serious.

Significant UK funding for GCAP is about to announced imminently as part of the multi-year procurement plan.

As I said, things have progressed way beyond having the usual rounds of talks and negotiations. The time for Germany to join GCAP as a partner was 12-18 months ago. The usual process of having talks, going home to consult with domestic business and politicians, have another round of talks, more consultation, more talks, that's all gone.

If Germany wants into GCAP it must say so now. No "we'll think about it if the terms are generous". Money on the table ready to go, sign a contract in 30 days sort of thing.

Japan is talking about increasing defence spending beyond 2% of GDP, looking at the 3% and 3.5% levels being eyed up by other countries. They aren't desperate for people bringing money in, they want GCAP to go ahead at top speed. Germany cannot do anything to speed things up, they can only slow it down - unless they put all their cards on the table right now.

This is why early access to GCAP exports makes more sense than negotiating partner status. Talking about partner status keeps ignoring Japan's priorities. Japan is in the driving seat. All Italy and the UK can do is defer their own deliveries and allow Japan to get the bulk of the early production, they cannot force a delay.

 

[Masquerader]

I see the prospect of any export variant of 6th generation US platforms (F-47, F/A XX) as very dim and remote.

It is a function of the market as well as American priorities. For the US, replacing the F-22 and recapitalising their fleet is the priority and the strategy for export likely rest largely on F-35 with 6th like upgrades (5.5 gen/++ , whatever you call it)

Traditionally, UK and Japan would be target buyers for a 6th generation platform; but these will go with the GCAP route. European NATO partners will then either find a Euro solution (GCAP or depending what France and Germany does) or buy that F-35++ since smaller countries (e.g Benlux) might be ok with 80% of a 6th gen.

You are then left with Australia that would have the desire and budget for a 6th gen platform, maybe a Singapore or Taiwan. IMO this market will be too small to justify that export F-47 to exist.

The Royal Air Force and Royal Navy were shopping for a Harrier replacement, and even though the F-35B became the UK's choice for a successor to the Harrier, the British Defence Ministry probably had no idea that the fighter aircraft embodied by the JSF program had stealth attributes. Thus, the F-35 would become the first stealth aircraft to be purchased by a foreign customer.

Dassault Aviation might revive the FCAS as a go-it-alone venture to replace the Rafale because Dassault and BAE Systems respectively built the nEUROn and Taranis UCAV tech demonstrators on their own without the need for foreign cooperation.

 

[John Fedup]

Significant UK funding for GCAP is about to announced imminently as part of the multi-year procurement plan.

Fair enough but I am sure Japan wants to see what "imminent" really means with your current government which, albeit, has a way to go to before matching Canada's former drama teacher PM junior wrt BS defence promises.