ADF General discussion thread

[StevoJH]

As a pro nuclear power advocate if viable alternatives exist then these would be preferable to nuclear primarily due to the waste management issues. Solar and wind are good options but for base load NG is needed. Eventually due to CO2 emissions nuclear will be necessary at some point. Delaying this has one advantage, maybe fusion will arrive (….a big maybe)

Nuclear also costs more (at least in an Australian context) per kWh when taking into account all through life costs.

We should be able to have enough generation capacity through renewables when backed up with sufficient battery capacity via both chemical or kinetic storage.

There has been a lot of work on this, and because of the size of the country and the average weather conditions once you get away from the coast there shouldn't be enough days without either wind or sun to create an issue.

Especially since there are quite a few new gas plants that have been built for when additional capacity may be required.

--------------------

Saying that, it seems a waste to be training nuclear engineers for the Navy and then having no civil career options in Australia for after they leave the military, or even for mid career secondments. Huge risk of brain drain to overseas.

 

[SamB]

Nuclear also costs more (at least in an Australian context) per kWh when taking into account all through life costs.

We should be able to have enough generation capacity through renewables when backed up with sufficient battery capacity via both chemical or kinetic storage.

There has been a lot of work on this, and because of the size of the country and the average weather conditions once you get away from the coast there shouldn't be enough days without either wind or sun to create an issue.

Especially since there are quite a few new gas plants that have been built for when additional capacity may be required.

--------------------

Saying that, it seems a waste to be training nuclear engineers for the Navy and then having no civil career options in Australia for after they leave the military, or even for mid career secondments. Huge risk of brain drain to overseas.

Someone mentioned energy density. It makes sense to place compact reactors or the like closer to urbane areas but where you can place infrastructure next to renewables it would also make sense.

 

[old faithful]

Would you mind naming them. Looking for work now. Got made redundant recently

Have sent you a PM, so as not to railroad this thread.

 

[76mmGuns]

Hi all,

I have a question which will show my non defence industry status...

** How much of military development does the country it occurs in actually own or keep?

For example, Boeing Australia is developing the Ghost Bat in conjunction with the Australian Air Force. But Boeing is an American multinational company. Is the Ghost Bat really an Aussie devlopment, or is Australia simply the location Ghost Bat is developed, and GB is really Boeing's, which makes it more American?

Boeing sweetens its Polish F-15EX offer with local deals, ‘Ghost Bat’

The company hosted an industry day event in Warsaw in an effort to include local companies in a prospective aircraft sale.

www.defensenews.com

Boeing just sweetened their offer to Poland by adding the Ghost Bat to their F15EX's. That implies GB is Boeings first, maybe Australia's a distant second.

 

[Bob53]

The costs to keep a 90 day supply were quoted as 20bn over a 4 year period hence the decision against it

Once the stock gets sold it’s paid for by the consumer…

 

[Bob53]

Nuclear also costs more (at least in an Australian context) per kWh when taking into account all through life costs.

We should be able to have enough generation capacity through renewables when backed up with sufficient battery capacity via both chemical or kinetic storage.

There has been a lot of work on this, and because of the size of the country and the average weather conditions once you get away from the coast there shouldn't be enough days without either wind or sun to create an issue.

Especially since there are quite a few new gas plants that have been built for when additional capacity may be required.

--------------------

Saying that, it seems a waste to be training nuclear engineers for the Navy and then having no civil career options in Australia for after they leave the military, or even for mid career secondments. Huge risk of brain drain to overseas.

I’m not entirely convinced it costs more yet. As for an Australian context…does that mean nuclear is cheaper but we make it more expensive because of the backward way we do things? One thing I see with renewables is that the opp cost of the land and corridors being used is never taken into account. It all sounds wonderful but I haven’t seen anything to realistically suggest batteries can carry the load. As for gas stations…none are getting built. I’m not certain about other states but gas Newport was commissioned about 1980 …500mw and Gas Jeeralang 1979 …which is 450mw are It going to run for ever. Coal fired Loy Yang A …2200mw …30% of Victoria’s electrical generation is due to close around 2034. Yallourn with about 20% of victorian out put 1400mw due to close in 2028. If my maths is correct the lights are going off.

 

[Todjaeger]

Hi all,

I have a question which will show my non defence industry status...

** How much of military development does the country it occurs in actually own or keep?

For example, Boeing Australia is developing the Ghost Bat in conjunction with the Australian Air Force. But Boeing is an American multinational company. Is the Ghost Bat really an Aussie devlopment, or is Australia simply the location Ghost Bat is developed, and GB is really Boeing's, which makes it more American?

Simple question, but I suspect the answer is rather complex, with the shortest, easiest answer being, "it sort of depends..."

As I understand it, the answers you are after are quite dependent on what the respective national laws are, especially the IP laws as well as military/defence law, since some countries (like the US in particular) have enacted laws which regulate defence and defence tech access and dissemination. It is likely that under Australian law, the IP developed by Boeing Australia through R&D is subject to Australian IP laws and control, even though Boeing Australia is a subsidiary of the US company Boeing. In practice, this would likely mean that the parent company Boeing could take profits (earned by Boeing Australia) generated by production and sales of Ghost Bat, but Australia itself could likely block or restrict sales and/or export of the Ghost Bat and related tech. Of course Australia's ability to block or restrict Boeing Australia in such a way would be dictated by what Australian law is in effect. I am uncertain if Australia currently has equivalents to US laws like ITAR or AECA, but I suspect there is at least something on the books.

OTOH the situation could also be a bit more complicated if any of the funding Boeing Australia used for the R&D came from the US or the US gov't, as that could give the US a stake in the tech. IIRC this happened with CEA, where the US gov't provided some funding for CEA to work on AusPAR which was to be a sort of follow-on to the CEA FAR AESA.

 

[StevoJH]

I’m not entirely convinced it costs more yet. As for an Australian context…does that mean nuclear is cheaper but we make it more expensive because of the backward way we do things? One thing I see with renewables is that the opp cost of the land and corridors being used is never taken into account. It all sounds wonderful but I haven’t seen anything to realistically suggest batteries can carry the load. As for gas stations…none are getting built. I’m not certain about other states but gas Newport was commissioned about 1980 …500mw and Gas Jeeralang 1979 …which is 450mw are It going to run for ever. Coal fired Loy Yang A …2200mw …30% of Victoria’s electrical generation is due to close around 2034. Yallourn with about 20% of victorian out put 1400mw due to close in 2028. If my maths is correct the lights are going off.

Please see attached AEMO Annual Report for Victoria.

As per page 25 and Figure 6 on page 26, current installed capacity in Victoria as of the 30th of August 2025 was the following:
- Total capacity = 17.1GW, of which 9.6GW is renewable.
- 8.9GW of large-scale wind, solar and battery storage
- 0.7GW of Hydro
- 5.1GW of Coal
- 2.4GW of Gas

These numbers do not include roof top solar and home batteries.

Pages 21 through 24 detail expected withdrawal dates of coal and what it is expected to be replaced by.

You are welcome.

 

[SammyC]

Please see attached AEMO Annual Report for Victoria.

As per page 25 and Figure 6 on page 26, current installed capacity in Victoria as of the 30th of August 2025 was the following:
- Total capacity = 17.1GW, of which 9.6GW is renewable.
- 8.9GW of large-scale wind, solar and battery storage
- 0.7GW of Hydro
- 5.1GW of Coal
- 2.4GW of Gas

These numbers do not include roof top solar and home batteries.

Pages 21 through 24 detail expected withdrawal dates of coal and what it is expected to be replaced by.

You are welcome.

Google says there is an additional 5.5GW of rooftop solar in Victoria (848,000 homes for a penetration of 30% of dwellings). 246MW were installed in 2025 alone.

As of early 2026, 44,000 home batteries have been installed in Victoria. At a national average of 15kWh, that equates to 0.6GWh of battery. I think this number is rapidly increasing, so expect it to be in the GWhs within 12 months.

In 2025, 45% of Victoria's total generation was from renewable sources.
AEMO

Peak demand for Victoria was 10.8GW, which occured in late Jan 26. 47% of this peak came from renewables.

 

[spoz]

Yes, Australia has export control laws; and the Defence Export Control Office administers them as they apply to Defence related items.

 

[hauritz]

Hi all,

I have a question which will show my non defence industry status...

** How much of military development does the country it occurs in actually own or keep?

For example, Boeing Australia is developing the Ghost Bat in conjunction with the Australian Air Force. But Boeing is an American multinational company. Is the Ghost Bat really an Aussie devlopment, or is Australia simply the location Ghost Bat is developed, and GB is really Boeing's, which makes it more American?

Boeing sweetens its Polish F-15EX offer with local deals, ‘Ghost Bat’

The company hosted an industry day event in Warsaw in an effort to include local companies in a prospective aircraft sale.

www.defensenews.com

Boeing just sweetened their offer to Poland by adding the Ghost Bat to their F15EX's. That implies GB is Boeings first, maybe Australia's a distant second.

In the case of the MQ-28 the Australian Government holds significant control over the intellectual property, development and export of this aircraft. Boeing would require approval from the Australian government before it sold this aircraft to other countries.

On the subject of which Boeing Australia has now teamed up with Rheinmetall to offer the Ghost Bat to the German Military. That also gives us greater access to the European market as a whole. The MQ-28 is the most mature CCA on the market and that should help its chances of picking up a few orders from Europe. That Europe can minimise its dealings with the US also won't hurt its chances either.

MQ-28 Ghost Bat Gains Major European Foothold As Rheinmetall Joins Forces With Boeing

The MQ-28 Ghost Bat could be fielded by the Luftwaffe, but the door is also open to a potentially very lucrative European CCA market. The MQ-28 Ghost Bat could be fielded by the Luftwaffe, but the door is also open to a potentially very lucrative European CCA market.

www.twz.com

 

[old faithful]

Google says there is an additional 5.5GW of rooftop solar in Victoria (848,000 homes for a penetration of 30% of dwellings). 246MW were installed in 2025 alone.

As of early 2026, 44,000 home batteries have been installed in Victoria. At a national average of 15kW, that equates to 0.6GW of battery. I think this number is rapidly increasing, so expect it to be in the GWs within 12 months.

In 2025, 45% of Victoria's total generation was from renewable sources.
AEMO

Peak demand for Victoria was 10.8GW, which occured in late Jan 26. 47% of this peak came from renewables.

You would think that every major Government building would have solar panels and a house battery wouldn't you?

 

[Bob53]

Please see attached AEMO Annual Report for Victoria.

As per page 25 and Figure 6 on page 26, current installed capacity in Victoria as of the 30th of August 2025 was the following:
- Total capacity = 17.1GW, of which 9.6GW is renewable.
- 8.9GW of large-scale wind, solar and battery storage
- 0.7GW of Hydro
- 5.1GW of Coal
- 2.4GW of Gas

These numbers do not include roof top solar and home batteries.

Pages 21 through 24 detail expected withdrawal dates of coal and what it is expected to be replaced by.

You are welcome.

I don’t doubt yours and Sammy Cs numbers are correct and just about align with what I said. However I doubt the battery average size…possibly correct if talking about those installed over the past 12 months would be correct. however if talking about all batteries installed …no way. The issue is that if the wind always blew and sun always shined we would never have an issue. But they don’t and once the coal stops there is going to be insufficient battery to carry the load on the days where we have low wind/sun. 44 thousand out of 2.8 million dwellings In Victoria….is not enough batteries. But for me the real result is in wholesale energy half hour prices. If we look at those some crazy rates being paid for stored energy. Those rates are not because we have too much stored power. Time will tell. Hope I’m wrong but let’s see.

 

[SammyC]

I don’t doubt yours and Sammy Cs numbers are correct and just about align with what I said. However I doubt the battery average size…possibly correct if talking about those installed over the past 12 months would be correct. however if talking about all batteries installed …no way. The issue is that if the wind always blew and sun always shined we would never have an issue. But they don’t and once the coal stops there is going to be insufficient battery to carry the load on the days where we have low wind/sun. 44 thousand out of 2.8 million dwellings In Victoria….is not enough batteries. But for me the real result is in wholesale energy half hour prices. If we look at those some crazy rates being paid for stored energy. Those rates are not because we have too much stored power. Time will tell. Hope I’m wrong but let’s see.

Solar battery installations on the rise | Clean Energy Regulator.

I got the battery size from the regulator, as above. Yes it is data post 1 July 2025, so reflects the impact of the various government rebates.

I think one of the principles with the wind game is its always blowing somewhere. With the NEM in particular being interconnected from QLD through to SA, its hard to find a time when the entire east coast is still. And even rarer when it is still and not shining. And even rarer again for that to align when batteries have been fully discharged.

To balance it all, there is still investment in gas generation. Perth just announced two new gas stations totalling 620MW for instance.

I keep an eye on the Perth SWIS half hour energy prices (I used to work in the power gen game). Two years ago, the average summer midday price was about minus $150 MW, and the average 6pm was about plus $300 MW. This reflected excessive solar in the day, and not enough renewables/batteries at night. This summer just gone the data had changed to plus $50 MW at midday and plus $150 MW at 6 pm. That change is the result of both large grid batteries (with several recently installed) and home smaller batteries soaking up the day time excess generation, and releasing it during the peak period. Notably coal generation remained the same throughout the 24 hour period. 2025 is the first time in living memory that the levelised cost of electricity over the 12 month period has reduced.

To my point above, wind generation, even over a smaller grid like the Perth SWIS, is actually fairly constant. Eneabba is our most northern wind farm, 260kms above Perth, Albany has the most southern wind farms, 420km below Perth. Albany only had seven days last year where there was insufficient wind for generation (and it was not the whole of these days). Cross referencing, Eneabba was windy on those same days.

 

[Bob53]

Solar battery installations on the rise | Clean Energy Regulator.

I got the battery size from the regulator, as above. Yes it is data post 1 July 2025, so reflects the impact of the various government rebates.

I think one of the principles with the wind game is its always blowing somewhere. With the NEM in particular being interconnected from QLD through to SA, its hard to find a time when the entire east coast is still. And even rarer when it is still and not shining. And even rarer again for that to align when batteries have been fully discharged.

To balance it all, there is still investment in gas generation. Perth just announced two new gas stations totalling 620MW for instance.

I keep an eye on the Perth SWIS half hour energy prices (I used to work in the power gen game). Two years ago, the average summer midday price was about minus $150 MW, and the average 6pm was about plus $300 MW. This reflected excessive solar in the day, and not enough renewables/batteries at night. This summer just gone the data had changed to plus $50 MW at midday and plus $150 MW at 6 pm. That change is the result of both large grid batteries (with several recently installed) and home smaller batteries soaking up the day time excess generation, and releasing it during the peak period. Notably coal generation remained the same throughout the 24 hour period. 2025 is the first time in living memory that the levelised cost of electricity over the 12 month period has reduced.

To my point above, wind generation, even over a smaller grid like the Perth SWIS, is actually fairly constant. Eneabba is our most northern wind farm, 260kms above Perth, Albany has the most southern wind farms, 420km below Perth. Albany only had seven days last year where there was insufficient wind for generation (and it was not the whole of these days). Cross referencing, Eneabba was windy on those same days.

Look I get you point and as I said time will tell but my reference point is a 5 day period around the start of June last year…possibly late may when we had 5 days straight in vic of overcast and no wind. wholesale and feed in rates were through the roof. Let see

 

[StevoJH]

Look I get you point and as I said time will tell but my reference point is a 5 day period around the start of June last year…possibly late may when we had 5 days straight in vic of overcast and no wind. wholesale and feed in rates were through the roof. Let see

The thing to remember is that even if the weather is not favourable in one state (Victoria), it is unlikely to be unfavourable in Tasmania, New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia at the same time.

Especially in the more rural parts of the mainland states where a lot of solar is located, that tend to have 300+ clear days per year, and that doesn't take into account wind generation.

 

[Bob53]

The thing to remember is that even if the weather is not favourable in one state (Victoria), it is unlikely to be unfavourable in Tasmania, New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia at the same time.

Especially in the more rural parts of the mainland states where a lot of solar is located, that tend to have 300+ clear days per year, and that doesn't take into account wind generation.

Did/do you work for a power company to have this insight? But if as you say we get it from other states why was the price hitting $20 a kWh?

 

[Volkodav]

Hey, guys, remember we have a national power grid, how the power is generated doesnt really matter, what does is stability and reaction time if something goes wrong.

Transmission lines being taken out make local batteries critical for resilience.