The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[vikingatespam]

An AI estimate is not evidence. (It has been already pointed out.)

An AI estimate is evidence. The AI trawls many places on the web to consolidate and summarize. It is _weak_ data, as I said in my post, but it _is_ data.

An estimate is not data (It is an interpretation of whatever data has been selected.)

"An estimate is an approximate, educated calculation or judgment of a value, quantity, or cost based on incomplete data"

Estimates are used to draw conclusions. Stop trying to change the subject. It isnt working.

The "in the fight" has been used repeatedly. Try this: a/ Ukraine is fighting. b/ We want Ukraine to keep fighting. You choose to use the "force to" and "against its own will", it is not there, it is not in what I posted; it is only in your interpretation.

Which is why I asked you to clarify in a simple matter. Which you have refused to do on multiple occasions. So why not say it now ?

Mutual interests are not a conspiracy. UKR can stop fighting tomorrow if it chooses. Aid to UKR does not constitute a way to force UKR to fight.

Cause and Effect. Foreign aide does not LEAD to UKR fighting. UKR fighting leads to foreign aide.

We have been over this before.

I already said that I don't think (not "believe", I would't use that word for a country where half the budget is paid by foreign donors; not that subtle) that's in Ukraine's best interest, but it is in our best interests.

Being in our best interests is not a compulsion to fight for UKR. Do you not see this ?

I think that Ukraine should had gone for a peace agreement

There was no "peace agreement". It was a surrender document.

Funny enough, I consider the whole "rump state" (fantasy) concept as another "cry wolf!" selling point. Russia is going to invade! (Greenland?) Russia is going to do something! The boogeyman is coming!

Chechnia twice, UKR twice, Georgia, Transnistria. Seems like a pretty clear pattern of invasions and aggression.

The EU wants Ukraine "in the fight", the point is clear.

EU wants UKR to defend itself. Im sure the EU would rather Second Rate Stalin piss off back to RU so the EU isnt spending a ton of money on this.

You have to clarify to yourself that doesn't mean that the EU is forcing Ukraine to fight nor that Ukraine doesn't want to fight; even when a few millions of Ukrainians have made clear that they do not want to fight.

I have made those points in the past, I thought it was obvious by now.

It seems that your only point is to make me say something that I didn't say in the first place. I cannot see the point in that.

No, I want YOU to clarify YOUR statement. Easy, simply, obvious.

This conversation is pointless.

Try making a point for a change.

 

[vikingatespam]

On that I think you might have it wrong. Russia is the country with the vested interest in Ukraine being stable

Like Belarus ? Stable ?

Russia wants UKR satellite > stability.

I could be wrong here but I have a suspicion that it is Russia who will be doing the rebuilding not the European or Americans not outside of anything that they profit from anyhow

Im not sure RU is in an economic position to rebuild itself, much less UKR.

 

[vikingatespam]

Things like concrete wood energy these a things Russia has plenty of. Truth is there rebuilding in areas already. On the bigger picture the low civilian casualties and offers of citizenship show that the intent is definitely closer to helping them it is destroying or even abandoning responsibility in the regions. There ability to do it quickly for sure is in doubt but I don't think the intent or overall ability to do it is

Color me a cynic, but I see "offers of citizenship" the same thing as "welcome to the RU army, comrade".

 

[vikingatespam]

I guess we will just have to wait for for your imparted wisdom.

Say the poster who claimed nothing in the UKR-RU was a surprise to him.

 

[vikingatespam]

Like adding one estimate about Russian casualties but not adding any estimate about Ukrainian casualties?

How does providing estimates of RU casualties obligate another estimate on UKR casualties ?

That is the height of "whataboutism".

If you care about UKR casualty estimates, why dont you find out and tell the readers here ?

 

[crest]

Like Belarus ? Stable ?

Russia wants UKR satellite > stability.



Im not sure RU is in an economic position to rebuild itself, much less UKR.

Absolutely right but stability in that satellite is important to preventing it from being militarized against Russia that is there goal I believe via there actions and statements. No doubt they would prefer Ukraine to be prosperous and a satellite but I think you have the priority right.

Color me a cynic, but I see "offers of citizenship" the same thing as "welcome to the RU army, comrade".

Except that's not the case there for the most part allowed to continue there lives as they were. Unless they refuse Russian citizenship then I believe they are jailed. There is a number (I don't know the %) that join the r.u and it's not surprising as with the slow advancement the people left behind are more often then not the people who chose to stay behind. It's not unreasonable to assume that that choice is made on there preference of goverment not despite it

 

[Beltrami2005]

Sounds like you have all but the war all but won. Guess you just have to go into Ukraine and mop up the dregs of the Russian state....good luck with that. And go ahead try and seize a Russian military ship or mass cargo ships, there is a difference between carefully acting under a certain threshold and actually provoking action. There is a reason Europe isn't involved in Ukraine with there own armies and it's not Russian weakness.
Tho In all honesty what NATO can do i actuality vs what it can do on paper is definitely a bigger question then it used to be. In a alince of risk adverse members who shoulders the burdens? Who is even willing to?

But whats the issue? Thats the multipolar world russia wanted. It just happens to be far to weak to stand against the european pole. Russia has no business to be in our waters. You didnt expect that a military and economic weakling like russia dictates to us?

To answer your question what we would do if a russian military ship tries to break a blockade, it would get sunk. Russia must be very careful now, because evryone can attack its assets and can denie responsibility. Ukraine sunk a russian ship near senegal coast. It can happen anywhere.

Its funny how you suddenly want back the old rule based order when things dont go your way. Russia may retreat into its own sphere of influenc3, ours are closed for it.

 

[crest]

But whats the issue? Thats the multipolar world russia wanted. It just happens to be far to weak to stand against the european pole. Russia has no business to be in our waters. You didnt expect that a military and economic weakling like russia dictates to us?

To answer your question what we would do if a russian military ship tries to break a blockade, it would get sunk. Russia must be very careful now, because evryone can attack its assets and can denie responsibility. Ukraine sunk a russian ship near senegal coast. It can happen anywhere.

Its funny how you suddenly want back the old rule based order when things dont go your way. Russia may retreat into its own sphere of influenc3, ours are closed for it.

It's not actually a blockade you know that right.
Standing up to Europe I think Russia does indeed protect its interests the Ukraine war is just that. Now would Russia attack Europe no of course not I doubt it has the desire and certainly not the capacity. Even if it did the cost would be to high

I know there have been actions against Russian shipping but if this is a blockade of Russian shipping in the Mediterranean it's about as effective as sanctions have been in stoping Russian trade. Again that threshold I'm talking about if t e.u wanted to they could blockade but the risk is to high so they don't they harras Russian shipping and that's about it

 

[Beltrami2005]

It's not actually a blockade you know that right.
Standing up to Europe I think Russia does indeed protect its interests the Ukraine war is just that. Now would Russia attack Europe no of course not I doubt it has the desire and certainly not the capacity. Even if it did the cost would be to high

I know there have been actions against Russian shipping but if this is a blockade of Russian shipping in the Mediterranean it's about as effective as sanctions have been in stoping Russian trade. Again that threshold I'm talking about if t e.u wanted to they could blockade but the risk is to high so they don't they harras Russian shipping and that's about it

Can we agree that Russia is currently pushed out of our sphere of influence? Its exactly what Russia wanted, a multipolar world. It just overestimated its reach

 

[crest]

I would say there is two competing spheres in the same area. Or rather two independent systems working in the same area with a amount of friction between them but short of outright hostility. And likely to stay short of that threshold simply due to the amount of damage each side can inflict on the other

 

[rsemmes]

Say the poster who claimed nothing in the UKR-RU was was a surprise to him.

You are misrepresenting again... or misunderstanding?

I haven't been surprised by what a lot of people here (and not only in this forum) have been surprised or for what (for a 12 years) has been called "new", weapons, tactics or (even more ludicrous) strategy. Who is going to invent anything new about the conduct of war?
I was surprised by the "massive use of drones", neither by drones (the 80's) nor by massive (shells in WWI, SAMs in Vietnam, SAMs and ATGMs in the Yom Kippur); I shouldn't have, been just another type of ammo.
I wasn't surprised by the failed Robotine offensive nor by disastrous failure of the Kursk bluff; you got that right.

 

[Beltrami2005]

I would say there is two competing spheres in the same area. Or rather two independent systems working in the same area with a amount of friction between them but short of outright hostility. And likely to stay short of that threshold simply due to the amount of damage each side can inflict on the other

The area, is our hood. Russia states it doesnt want us in Ukraine. You know what that means fo russias presence in the mediterranean?

Its very simple, no europe in Ukraine, means no russia in the Mediterranean.

 

[crest]

You are misrepresenting again... or misunderstanding?

I haven't been surprised by what a lot of people here (and not only in this forum) have been surprised or for what (for a 12 years) has been called "new", weapons, tactics or (even more ludicrous) strategy. Who is going to invent anything new about the conduct of war?
I was surprised by the "massive use of drones", neither by drones (the 80's) nor by massive (shells in WWI, SAMs in Vietnam, SAMs and ATGMs in the Yom Kippur); I shouldn't have, been just another type of ammo.
I wasn't surprised by the failed Robotine offensive nor by disastrous failure of the Kursk bluff; you got that right.

I would say the isr capacity of drones is new in war especially for one with this large a front. I can't think of a war were movements on a tactical level are spotted and reacted to 10+ km from the frontline and can be defended without infantry. Knowing your going to be spotted and targeted before contact in almost all cases is a significant shift in warfare on this scale. The rest I agree is the regular probloms and innovations of war but the complete monerating of the battlefield behind the battlefield and ability to respond quickly is new and requires more then just innovation of standard tactics but Infact a overhaul of the fundamentals of engagement at least untill innovation catches up to this change in battle space dynamics

 

[rsemmes]

I would say the isr capacity of drones is new in war especially for one with this large a front. I can't think of a war were movements on a tactical level are spotted and reacted to 10+ km from the frontline and can be defended without infantry. Knowing your going to be spotted and targeted before contact in almost all cases is a significant shift in warfare on this scale. The rest I agree is the regular probloms and innovations of war but the complete monerating of the battlefield behind the battlefield and ability to respond quickly is new and requires more then just innovation of standard tactics but Infact a overhaul of the fundamentals of engagement at least untill innovation catches up to this change in battle space dynamics

I have to disagree.

The capability (ISR) is not new, its massive use is new.

It is not “defended”, we are talking about infiltration all the time. In WW2 (and not only) large areas of the front were “patrolled”, not “defended”.

Airbone (10km+) FO/FAC is old news too.

“Targeted”, that is the key word. There is a huge investment in attack drones, not that much in defending every squad from those attacks. At what height can a grenade be dropped so that it hits someone? Up to what height are shotgun pellets/EW guns effective? How many squads are equipped with anti-drones drones? If you need 20 drones to achieve one casualty, the magic is gone, isn't it? At the same time, their pilots could have been targeted already.
During WW2, in that skirmish that was the Western Front in 1944, the Germans fought under Allied air supremacy (including ISR, not only attacks), offensives were doomed, but not attacks/counterattacks; heavy AA defences allowed those. As you say, we don't see that in Ukraine. Maybe every couple of pickups need an anti-drone team and an anti-drone AFV, we don't see that either. We see drones hitting each other assets, we haven't seen any drone free area. I am talking about light drones, not missiles-drones like the Lancet.

I don't say it has to work, I say it hasn't been tried.

 

[crest]

I agree it's the massive use that changes things. Not so much for the defender there priciables of combat are the same just enhanced. But for the attacker this is different the concepts of attack don't allow for a inability to reach the front in any type of formation nor do they survive the idea that every move is known. And reacted to in real time

The inability to deliver a concentration of force against a defender due to both attrition and the fact they have enough time to relocate or change defence position is a change in warfare. These things may have been hard to achieve before but they boarder on impossible now. I mean look at Ukraine if it wasn't for the manpower issues Russia may not be able to move at all. The strategy is not to deliver a concentrated blow against a front line it's to sneak forces onto the front line and then concentrate them into some kind of force. This is a entirely different methodology of attack then has been the case in warfare previously. And honestly not one that I think can be replicated in other wars unless attrition has already made this kind of option even viable

As to your theoretical I agree that may one day be a option but that untill innovation catches up at least for now warfare has changed. At least for the attacker it must be fought in new way as traditional methods and priciables don't work as they used to. Nkt for combat of this scale. The "fog of war" has effectivity been removed this is a change in the very nature of warfare

 

[Feanor]

If you need 20 drones to achieve one casualty, the magic is gone, isn't it?

No it isn't. Reports are that millions of drones per year are getting used. If Russia could consistently get a 20-1 ratio of drones to kills whenever the drones were available (as opposed to whenever the targets were available), Russia would have annihilated Ukraine's armed forces last year. We're talking about casualties on a level that neither side could sustain.

 

[Redshift]

Do I see a high horse there? What about US kidnapping people in Europe and flying them away to get tortured? Those values?
Hostility is not one-sided, it is a long build up of conflicting interests. NATO and Russia wanted a friendly Ukraine... for themselves.

Oh well, that makes it just fine and dandy for Russia to murder people in the UK gosh it is so obvious now that murdering people in the UK is just a high horse stance and we should just be honest and admit that it's really our own fault.

 

[Preceptor]

Thread Locked: A discussion among the Mod team will occur to determine how long. There've been far too many poor quality posts, as well as posts which are Off Topic. The topic of this thread if the Russian-Ukrainian War, posting about what one country might have done in an entirely different country and not directly tied to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is Off Topic and irrelevant. Also, posting unsupported claims with the expectation that members who question or would challenge the claim need to 'google' the claim for proof isn't how honest debate works. The burden of proof is on the person making the claim.
-Preceptor

 

[Feanor]

Thread is being re-opened with a stern warning to all involved to stay on the topic of this thread, and to ensure posts are both relevant to the topic at hand and provide something of substance to the discussion. Back and forth about personal values and views of the conflict stemming therefrom are neither helpful nor welcome.

 

[Feanor]

Another video from Selidovo, from WarGonzo. This time the focus is on the temporary shelter set up for civilians being evacuated by Russian forces from front line areas. Note Selidovo is now a good distance behind the front lines, south-south-east of Pokrovsk. Interesting details, this shelter is a temporary refuge for civilians exiting the Pokrovsk area, with ~20 people per day coming in. They're then allegedly being routed to temporary housing in Avdeevka*. The person the reporter is taking this trip with is a former LNR and later Russian service member from the 114th MRBde, who is now part of the new program of putting veterans into government jobs and is in charge of setting up government services in the newly taken territories. It's noteworthy that Selidovo itself, in the few shots we get as they drive up into it is far less destroyed then the villages they drive through on the way there. In fact Selidovo requires far less rebuilding then Avdeevka, but it's likely deemed to still be too close to the front lines for any real work to begin.

Спецрепортаж WG "Селидово: фронтовая логистика жизни"

Сегодня мы отправились в прифронтовое Селидово вместе с Ильёй Емельяновым – заместителем председателя Правительства ДНР по освобождённым территориям, чей личный путь от легендарного командира 114-бригады, с позывным «Малой», до гражданской службы, пожалуй, символично отражает весь переход от войны к

rutube.ru

*This part is new to me, the last time we examined Avdeevka in May of last year, they discussed two iirc 3-story apartment buildings put up as temporary housing, which wasn't even enough for the ~800 people living in Avdeevka at that time. Apparently now two 4-story buildings from pre-war days were repaired and opened to residents again with 15 others in progress. It seems Avdeevka will be getting rebuilt after all, despite the outflow of population and heavy damage from the fighting and the plan may be to populate it with people from other destroyed areas.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Note these reconstruction efforts are key to Russia's ability to hold these areas long term. And note we already have that demographic reshaping that's been brewing. Pro-Russian civilians remain, and are being given homes. It's not so much "settlers" from the rest of Russia (again the demographics make this less than viable) rather it's those of the population that are willing to live under Russian rule that remain. How well Russia can accommodate them, and how willing they are to dedicate resources to this will have a lot to do with the future of the region. Note most civilians at least initially evacuate deeper into Ukraine. It's far safer than trying to sit out the fighting in ones basement, waiting for the arrival of Russian troops. So this reconstruction effort, to be a success, will have to not only work for the people that remained, but will need to attract some of those who evacuated to return. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a Mariupol'-style handout of free apartments and reconstruction certificates for personal houses as a way to encourage people to return.