Middle East Defence & Security

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Counter examples, Big Z?
Excuse me for defaulting to the example I know best - Israel.
Netanyahu met with him quite frequently, and there were even more frequent exchanges of high ranking figures.
This likely contributed greatly to the significant increase in US-Israel cooperation and alignment on the middle eastern war.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
So Trump is again doing his ping pong rhetoric, but the common theme in every message is "the war must end soon".
I think we're all in agreement, on all sides, that wars should ideally be quick and if it could end then it'd be good.

But the way things are headed, I think the final outcome may be bad for all sides.
IDF is moving to implement early stages of the Gaza City campaign. It could choose to stop at the outskirts, or go for the whole city and flatten it.
Regardless, it's shaping up to a situation where the IDF permanently holds a significant, deep perimeter around Gaza, and corridors dissecting it.

Why is it bad for Israel? Because that forgoes several critical war objectives, particularly those referring to a day after.

Why is it bad for Hamas? Because they're exhausted and their potential for reconstitution is just a fraction of its pre war condition. No construction materials and machinery are coming in, hence no terrain modification.

And there's the wildcard that is the hostages. Most of the remaining ones are dead, so less valuable no matter how cruel that sounds.
We don't know what Hamas is asking for them. But it can only be bad for Israel.
The universal truth is that the fewer remain, the more difficult they are to get out. It is possible the last hostage deal has shut that door in our faces. And so it is realistic that Israel will for the first time say "No, there's a price too high."


In the situation described, does the war really end?
I think it'll be more of a media perception thing.
The next stage may initiate. Not one between Israel and Hamas, but a Gazan civil war between Hamas and other factions. Factions that need time and resources to recruit, train, and take action, yet need to be on a leash to not turn into another Hamas.

Even if they win, it won't result in a demilitarized Gaza. It will just be differently militarized. Going forward from there will be a difficult challenge that will require a lot of hands on approach from Israel and the US (if the latter wants to shape things).

Important visual context to this post:


I also recommend following him:
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Regarding Gaza City campaign, it's generally assumed that it'll culminate in the city being flattened, and tunnels being methodically demolished or sealed.
For that, the IDF is reportedly rushing additional M113 based VBIEDs.
Since the entire city is boobytrapped, there is no option but to scan, map, and demolish every building individually. To risk fewer soldiers, who have already died from such traps, the army is using VBIEDs on a larger scale. I assume to create more controlled blasts on precise locations.



To clear an entire city, however, you need to move its people out. For that purpose, various aid organizations brought in large amounts of tents, and Israel is setting up a second power line for water desalination in Gaza. Additionally, water pipes are being laid from Egypt to Gaza.
And as you can see in the post above, Israel operates a desalination plant along the Gaza coastline.
The goal is to get ~800,000 people to evacuate to humanitarian zones, otherwise the operational tempo will come to a crawl.

 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
IDF is now targeting high rise buildings.

We've seen this tactic in Operation Rising Dawn in 2022, but for a different purpose. Then it was a counter-value strike.
Today the considerations are different. Palestinians are refusing to leave Gaza City, so I'm assuming the IDF conducts high profile deterring strikes, and to reduce living space in Gaza City to make it a worse QoL alternative to Mawasi.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
IDF is now targeting high rise buildings.

We've seen this tactic in Operation Rising Dawn in 2022, but for a different purpose. Then it was a counter-value strike.
Today the considerations are different. Palestinians are refusing to leave Gaza City, so I'm assuming the IDF conducts high profile deterring strikes, and to reduce living space in Gaza City to make it a worse QoL alternative to Mawasi.
How is this not a war crime? The target is civilian housing being targeted for the purpose of destroying civilian housing. Is that correct? There's no claim that Hamas is sitting inside and are the true target of the strike?
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
How is this not a war crime? The target is civilian housing being targeted for the purpose of destroying civilian housing. Is that correct? There's no claim that Hamas is sitting inside and are the true target of the strike?
It’s a part of the voluntary relocation plan. It’s not a war crime if you believe it isn’t. There is a difference set of rules here, clearly.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
How is this not a war crime? The target is civilian housing being targeted for the purpose of destroying civilian housing. Is that correct? There's no claim that Hamas is sitting inside and are the true target of the strike?
No, that is not correct. I wonder why all the questions about "war crime this, war crime that". These are fairly trivial things.
The IDF has at any point in time a target bank, pinning location and various intel items.
These targets are categorized, and the IDF can at any point decide what target categories to prioritize.

High rise buildings are likely considered high value targets, so escalatory.
It makes sense for the IDF to maintain an escalation ladder and not go all in for many reasons, and one of them is pressure management to get hostage deals. If the IDF applies full pressure right at the start, Hamas will eventually adapt and IDF will remain without options.

That building was likely in the target bank, meaning it was likely incriminated beforehand with intel of usage by Hamas. That would be logical. High rise buildings are very useful for surveillance, storage, work space, firing positions, and communications. Their residential nature provides them added shielding.
Overall it provides high military value or advantage to militants.

The strike on foundations and downward collapse, requiring both high expertise from pilots in releasing at a specific time, angle, and direction, and preliminary mission parameters preparation by various officers with expertise in demolition, indicate this target existed in the target bank for a while and with above average intelligence resources.

The target also received about an hour of evacuation time.
And this building specifically is confirmed to have been incriminated via Hamas's media channel posting about activity in that building.

To summarize:
Plenty of indicators that the target was in the target bank.
Target was struck according to SOP.
Therefore no deviation from LOAC/IHL is indicated.
 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
High value tsrgets:

Even before the plan to occupy Gaza City began to materialize, satellite images reveal that in recent weeks the IDF has destroyed large parts of the city and other areas in the northern Gaza Strip. The images from Planet Labs PBC show areas of the city on July 17 and then again on August 25. In the neighborhoods of Shujaiyeh, Zeitoun and Tuffah, most of the urban space appears to have been flattened by the IDF, with many buildings that were intact in the early images appearing completely destroyed in the later ones.

IMG_2243.jpeg

IMG_2245.jpeg

From: New satellite images show: Gaza City neighborhoods have already been destroyed

More here:




When one thinks most of everyone is a Hamas operative, one feels justified to level the entire “country”, smack anyone they like, etc. Worst case scenario declare to have had investigated oneself and found justification of one’s actions. It’s rather insane, but I guess whatever works. Then annex the entire area in the name of self-defence and security.

IMG_2117.jpeg
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
When one thinks most of everyone is a Hamas operative, one feels justified to level the entire “country”
What do buildings have to do with ID'ing personnel?

Worst case scenario declare to have had investigated oneself and found justification of one’s actions.
You seem to refer to a case involving a strike that was done opposite to the SOP. Would you rather the relevant bodies NOT issue an apology and announce an investigation?
Do you think that armed forces generally should not be accountable for conduct?

High value tsrgets:

Even before the plan to occupy Gaza City began to materialize, satellite images reveal that in recent weeks the IDF has destroyed large parts of the city and other areas in the northern Gaza Strip. The images from Planet Labs PBC show areas of the city on July 17 and then again on August 25. In the neighborhoods of Shujaiyeh, Zeitoun and Tuffah, most of the urban space appears to have been flattened by the IDF, with many buildings that were intact in the early images appearing completely destroyed in the later ones.
I do not believe these are treated as high value targets in the same sense. A demolition operation is ongoing to deny Hamas a key pillar of its war strategy, to deny it future advantages, and to reduce risk to troops following several tragic high casualty events.
So I believe the operational outlook there is less as individual buildings being individual targets, but areas to be cleared of things like tunnels, boobytraps, and rubble piles which can be great concealment.

You mentioned there Shujaiyeh, Zeitoun, and Tuffah. I don't remember much about Tuffah, but Shujaiyeh and Zeitoun were historically Hamas's largest strongholds. Areas the IDF preferred to largely skip in previous wars due to the anticipated intensity and high costs involved.
To see that it's been cleared with very little cost involved is a tremendous tactical feat.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
We are seeing civilian movements westward from Gaza City.

Hamas is panicking, urging people to stay.

Hamas claim to have killed a person going to Mawasi (humanitarian zone).

Time will tell if this pressure is enough for Hamas. Both sides are playing chicken right now. Losing Gaza City is a huge threat to Hamas. That's their stronghold, and rival groups are grabbing more control in other areas. But Israel is unlikely to continue south after the Gaza City campaign ends.
If Hamas cracks, there can be a hostage deal. If they persevere, we'll likely see them moving to fight a civil war in the south-west.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Your interpretation of things, including my post, is kind of weird.

What do buildings have to do with ID'ing personnel?
That building was likely in the target bank, meaning it was likely incriminated beforehand with intel of usage by Hamas.
Hence, like I said, when one thinks most of everyone is a Hamas operative, one feels justified to level the entire “country”. It is not about that one building, obviously.

You seem to refer to a case involving a strike that was done opposite to the SOP. Would you rather the relevant bodies NOT issue an apology and announce an investigation?
Do you think that armed forces generally should not be accountable for conduct?
Personally, I couldn’t care less about apologies. I also wasn’t referring to any particular event, but a most recent example from a pattern.

Investigations generally don’t matter when one investigates oneself, regardless of who the “one” is.

Yes, armed forces should absolutely be accountable for their conduct. And not just “generally”, but always. However, I am also a realist and don’t believe that a) one can investigate oneself during times of war in particular, b) one has credibility when one feels their actions are justified, which is always the case (while others consider such actions to not only be outrageous, but also war crimes), and c) one can meaningfully investigate oneself committing crimes against the party they are warring against. I believe this is clear as day to rational people. Are you OK with Russia investigating itself for what they have done and doing in Ukraine? Serbs? Palestine? Germany? US in their wars? Japan? Pretty much anyone else? Is Israel any different? If yes, then why? To stress right away before it gets into a talking point, all wars are different and initiated for different reasons. This is not the argument here and the initial aggressor has no relevance in this discussion.

I do not believe these are treated as high value targets in the same sense. A demolition operation is ongoing to deny Hamas a key pillar of its war strategy, to deny it future advantages, and to reduce risk to troops following several tragic high casualty events.
So I believe the operational outlook there is less as individual buildings being individual targets, but areas to be cleared of things like tunnels, boobytraps, and rubble piles which can be great concealment.
This is exactly what I am talking about. Moreover, like you said in one of your previous post that Feanor questioned, Palestinians (as you referred to the civilians in Gaza City) are refusing to leave, so the IDF conducts deterring strikes to reduce living space. To think that this is ok and normal is rather ridiculous. But this is a clear strategy of Israel and has been so for a very long time. The immediate goal is quite clear: make living conditions from unbearable to nonexistent so most people leave and then level the entire area.

You mentioned there Shujaiyeh, Zeitoun, and Tuffah. I don't remember much about Tuffah, but Shujaiyeh and Zeitoun were historically Hamas's largest strongholds. Areas the IDF preferred to largely skip in previous wars due to the anticipated intensity and high costs involved.
I simply searched Google for something like “gaza satellite imagery” and literally cited the very first three or four search results. There was no intention on my part to selectively indicate any particular areas (even if the search results themselves may be proven to have done so) but to illustrate that this is a widespread phenomenon, not some pick and choose building of “high priority”. This is the future of most of the entire (and likely all) Strip.

To see that it's been cleared with very little cost involved is a tremendous tactical feat.
This is, in my opinion, is a ridiculous assessment and exactly why any internal investigations have no meaning.

I would argue that every single state or individual committing war crimes considers themselves to be righteous and their actions to be justified. For everyone else to simply accept their point of view would be ludicrous. Which is why we have international organizations thot deal with these matters when stars align (often enough they don’t due to competing interest of the most powerful ones in this world).

I would also argue that the cost is tremendous instead of low, as you insist. I don’t think Israel will ever recover from this and I think the worst of what they are going to do is still ahead.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Hence, like I said, when one thinks most of everyone is a Hamas operative, one feels justified to level the entire “country”. It is not about that one building, obviously.
You talk about a false perception of every person as Hamas. I understood that part. And then you also said it "justifies leveling an entire country" which references combat engineering clearing work.
These are two entirely separate topics. Can you explain how the two are connected?

Regardless of incrimination, combat engineer forces across the world generally share the same tasks and greatly overlap in methods.

There also seems to be no evidence of your alleged threat perception. But overwhelming evidence against it. Which makes it weirder.

Are you aware of how incrimination works? And are how aware of the tasks of combat engineers?

Investigations generally don’t matter when one investigates oneself, regardless of who the “one” is.
Are you aware that armed forces and law enforcement, particularly in democracies, have self investigative mechanisms?
I'm certain that sometimes they don't work properly. What alternative are you proposing?


Yes, armed forces should absolutely be accountable for their conduct. And not just “generally”, but always. However, I am also a realist and don’t believe that a) one can investigate oneself during times of war in particular, b) one has credibility when one feels their actions are justified, which is always the case (while others consider such actions to not only be outrageous, but also war crimes), and c) one can meaningfully investigate oneself committing crimes against the party they are warring against. I believe this is clear as day to rational people. Are you OK with Russia investigating itself for what they have done and doing in Ukraine? Serbs? Palestine? Germany? US in their wars? Japan? Pretty much anyone else? Is Israel any different? If yes, then why? To stress right away before it gets into a talking point, all wars are different and initiated for different reasons. This is not the argument here and the initial aggressor has no relevance in this discussion.
I think this is the correct way, yes. There should be a self investigative body.
I also do not think Russia has one that's functioning properly. But these are two very separate things.


This is exactly what I am talking about. Moreover, like you said in one of your previous post that Feanor questioned, Palestinians (as you referred to the civilians in Gaza City) are refusing to leave, so the IDF conducts deterring strikes to reduce living space. To think that this is ok and normal is rather ridiculous. But this is a clear strategy of Israel and has been so for a very long time. The immediate goal is quite clear: make living conditions from unbearable to nonexistent so most people leave and then level the entire area.
There can be more than one reason for everything. Regardless of whether civilians evacuate and at what tempo, these towers would have to be gone anyway to deny Hamas conventional tactical advantages.
But at that specific point in time, the IDF's biggest problem was getting civilians to evacuate, so I commented on my personal opinion of the effects related to that specific problem.

The IDF, as is usual for many conflicts, puts off striking escalatory targets to maintain a viable escalation path. But now that the Gaza City campaign has begun, high rise buildings should be the first thing to go.

You seem to misunderstand the point of "leveling an area". When the IDF sets up corridors across Gaza, then it has to level areas to create an observable perimeter to reduce risk of movement.
But in any place other than a corridor, demolitions are necessary to disarm buildings. Almost every building there is boobytrapped, contains a tunnel shaft, or something else military, and it's demolished in a controlled manner.
But not all are used by Hamas, so in cleared areas we can spot quite a few standing buildings.
We also know the IDF scans every building for civilians, hostages, comabatants, and any hidden elements. That is why the operational tempo is slow. If it was all about flattening, it'd happen much more quickly.

People in Gaza City are threatened by Hamas to stay. As shown here previously, they've been known to murder civilians who try to leave or go to aid sites not controlled by them.
But the IDF cannot enter the city without evacuating it, otherwise civilians would get caught in the crossfire.
So setting up reinforced aid elsewhere, tents, water, better living conditions, and ending aid supplies to Gaza City - yes it lowers the quality of life in Gaza City, but it is a necessary measure.

However if you are familiar with another strategy that can achieve the same results, I'd be happy to hear.

As you can see, demolitions and clearing of civilians are two separate topics.

would argue that every single state or individual committing war crimes considers themselves to be righteous and their actions to be justified. For everyone else to simply accept their point of view would be ludicrous. Which is why we have international organizations thot deal with these matters when stars align (often enough they don’t due to competing interest of the most powerful ones in this world).
I'm familiar with numerous war crimes posted on social media to boast. Last time I checked with a mil journalist, they were court martialled. So the system works, at least to an extent. It also certainly helps that the IDF's self investigative body is uniformed but otherwise entirely subordinate to the civil supreme court, which is defined as overseer of the executive branch.
MAG's FFAM body and its investigators have a legal mandate to investigate every personnel they choose, regardless of said person's chain of command.
That is quite a robust system.

would also argue that the cost is tremendous instead of low, as you insist. I don’t think Israel will ever recover from this and I think the worst of what they are going to do is still ahead.
I was clearly referencing cost to human lives.
 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Your assumption seems to usually be that the person you are having a conversation with here is not aware of something, lacks knowledge, or misunderstands basic things. You say you understood things I hadn’t said.

Anyway, I said what I felt like saying on the subject.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Your assumption seems to usually be that the person you are having a conversation with here is not aware of something, lacks knowledge, or misunderstands basic things. You say you understood things I hadn’t said.

Anyway, I said what I felt like saying on the subject.
I appreciate simplification. But you do not simplify facts here. Is there reason to believe otherwise?
You literally referred to a standard strike procedure as "ridiculous", and ranted about some false perception of civilians as combatants. Is there reason not to treat it as irrational?
 
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