Volks, I think you're right. LOSV seems to be in the too hard basket and more GPFs seem to be the best option, if there's the political will.
I kind of see the LOCSV as a rapidly evolving subject, and as a result it is scheduled for the back end of the building program late in the 2030's to provide it time to mature.
I would suspect the final platform that gets built would have little alignment with what is on the drawing board or in prototyping at the moment.
We might not even go with the USN program, we might flip to the Japanese one. Or a European option. It might be a couple of different types. Agree more GPFs might be the gap filler if the technology is not ready.
When we do eventually get them there will be more than six. This is the kind of thing where you have dozens as a mini swarm, perhaps $10-20M per vessel. Imagine 10 boats with 8 missiles a piece, 5 fitted with an ISR package and another 5 carrying a variable dept sonar sailing as part of a surface action group with a GPF or Hunter. Or even an Arafura.
I personally have the view that the optionally crewed concept is a dead duck and will be passed over very quickly. I think we will see viable fully automated solutions in the next couple of years. Then its just a matter of getting the cost down.
The real question will be whether they are slaved to the crewed platform or have the ability to operate independently as a hive mind, where the sensor ships provide the firing solution. While we have a current aversion to autonomous lethality, I think this will change as the technology advances and trained people become rarer.
Absolutely on the out is the exquisite and expensive platform, which is what the Government was originally thinking of with the LOCSV.
It's interesting to see that the Americans have gone away from fitted Mk41 VLS based vessels, to the bolted on Mk70 and adaptable surface launchers. That's a much better concept, and allows for simple flat tray style vessels.
