The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

Let's bring the discussion back to the thread topic please.

 

[vikingatespam]

I suppose I shall start.

I find some satisfaction in the "mineral deal" that was just signed. I think it has shifted the political needle some towards the UKR side. With the further waffling by Putin, I think we are moving back into the realm of weapons sales, and hopefully weapon donations to UKR.

 

[Feanor]

I suppose I shall start.

I find some satisfaction in the "mineral deal" that was just signed. I think it has shifted the political needle some towards the UKR side. With the further waffling by Putin, I think we are moving back into the realm of weapons sales, and hopefully weapon donations to UKR.

I believe the US has unblocked some weapon sales to Ukraine, and has begun the delivery of old F-16s to be used as donors for spare parts. So it's definitely gotten some movement. On the other hand the terms of the deal are... draconian? It's reminiscent of 19th century colonialism. Of course that's probably better than losing the territory to Russia, but that assumes the two are connected. So far Russia has accelerated advances in April after a slow March, and if this continues into May, as it seems to be with the last burst north of Tarasovka, Ukraine is in for another tough year with the potential for losing both Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka on the table.

 

[KipPotapych]

That's BS. Trump didn't pull the Energy Ceasefire out of his hat. If Trump made this proposal, it's because Putin had asked it.

Ok, Fred. I actually didn’t want to reply at all, but I decided that I probably should (and I have a few minutes with nothing better to do anyway, rather I don’t want to do the things that I have to do, haha).

So here is a quote from your own post on March 10:

“Serhiy Leshchenko adviser to Presidential Office said:
He [Trump] says: Is there a ceasefire plan? We say, yes, we have one. We propose a ceasefire in the skies -- no drones, no missiles, no ballistic strikes. We also propose a ceasefire at sea -- we commit to not attacking. This is paradoxical because we currently hold the initiative in the Black Sea. Additionally, we propose not attacking energy infrastructure. However, if you ask about a ceasefire on land, that's a different matter. Ukraine will not agree to that because it would simply give Putin a few months to treat his wounded, recruit infantry from North Korea, and restart the war,

As I said, stopping land operations right now would be a disaster for Ukrainians. Even thought the tide is not reversing, active defence and counter-attacks are essential.”

March 10 was exactly 8 days before Putin agreed to this “energy ceasefire”. He also conditionally agreed to a “Black Sea ceasefire”. The “skies ceasefire” never made any sense, so that was rejected by the Russians.

The actual timeline went like this:

Trump said full ceasefire needs to happen -> Russia said “ok”, but they wanted the military aid to Ukraine to be halted during the ceasefire; Ukraine said no can do -> on March 3 (or 4?) Trump almost completely stopped Ukrainian aid and said that he wants progress (this happened a few days after the circus at the White House) -> Ukraine together with Europe proposed what you wrote in the post I quoted above -> Kursk salient started to completely fall apart the same or the next day (the failure could not be hidden any longer), which was weeks (months, really) in the making (you say it was because the Americans told Ukrainians to withdraw and/or because of the halt of aid and intel) -> Ukraine, in desperation for the aid to resume, while quickly losing about the only leverage they thought they had, agreed to full unconditional ceasefire (probably part of the decision involved making it look like the loss of Kursk is on the Americans) -> everyone clapped hands and celebrated declaring that “the ball is now in Russia’s court” -> active discussion on the Defense Talk forum of the subject, a few people who rarely post chimed in -> you posted the following on March 12 (ie two days after the post part of which I quotes above and a day after (or the same day) Ukraine agreed to a full ceasefire), displaying a very short memory:

“Zhovkva said: We are talking about the so-called complete truce. First and foremost, it means the cessation of aerial attacks with any type of weapon, whether ballistic and cruise missiles, guided bombs, or UAVs, including long-range drones. The first aspect is a complete ceasefire in the air.
The second aspect of the truce proposed by the Russian Federation is “silence” at sea.
It's necessary to ensure the continued operation of existing transportation routes, but as of now, there are many threats in the Black Sea, in the areas where Ukrainian and foreign vessels pass.
We also talked about a ceasefire on land, including the contact line.

It's interesting that, if it was not an error of translation, the sea truce was proposed by the Russians. Indeed that's where the Russians are the most crippled.”

In other words, Ukrainians stressed that the “air silence” is crucial to them (for obvious reasons), followed by the “Black Sea ceasefire”, because there are “many threats” to them, but they now say it was a Russian idea even though they were the ones who proposed it two days prior.

On March 18 Russia did what I wrote above (accepted energy ceasefire, conditional Black Sea ceasefire, rejected the air silence). You then wrote the following:

“Putin agreed that Ukraine stops striking Russian energy infrastructures. He also agreed not to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure, but that's less relevant because Ukraine doesn't depend on oil&gas exports to finance their war.”

Someone here clearly got played, which you did (subconsciously) realize because in the same post you said:

“It also implies that Russia will still target non-energy related targets all over Ukraine with all types of long range missiles. Whereas it will prohibit Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia because apart from the oil industry and oil depots, there isn't much to strike in Russia. Ukrainians can still try to strike air bases, but that's not very effective.
There is also the problem of the definition of an energy infrastructure.”

And you also (erroneously) concluded that:

“Putin's offer for Energy Sector truce is too fragmented to be serious. It only shows that deep strikes on Russian oil facilities started to bite.”

In other words, none of this was “Putin’s offer”.

For this reason, I posted the following:

This is from March 11, as you can see, when Ukraine went in about 24 hours from ceasefire is a horrible idea and won’t happen to accepting it (or pretending to do so). I posted it later than March 11 though.

To conclude this part, it was Europe and Ukraine that came up with the idea in order to play Trump and Putin, but got played instead and gave the Russians another two months. This is very clear from what I described above with the help of your own posts.

This entire misdirection on your part goes completely in line with your other previously described sequences of events that were either completely wrong/not factual (ie not what happened) or completely wrong timelines and order of things (ie not what happened). See the above as one example; other examples would be your description of what happened in Kursk and stoppage of Russian gas supplies through Ukraine, stoppage of still operational Druzhba pipeline, which you dated back to 2022 (if I recall correctly), the events you described that took place in Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014, quoting a Trump critic and attributing his words to Trump’s thought process and attitude, etc. Examples are plentiful. At the same time, you claim all this with the utmost certainty, sometimes as if you have some insider info no one else is privileged to.

We are not trying to find a solution that would make sens to Russia or that Russia would agree with. But a solution which would be the most just, thus the most favorable to Ukraine.

We are not trying to find anything, but discussing and trying to make sense of what is happening. Those who are deciding are certainly looking for a solution that will be acceptable to Russia because it is Russia that is waging the war and Ukraine can do nothing to stop it without accepting some agreement that is unfavourable and not just. At least at this point in time. I don’t think this can be any clearer than it is.

Sorry: This is not a territorial dispute between two equally wrong parties. It's Russia trying to invade by force and and destroying cities and killing people.

That doesn’t matter.

 

[KipPotapych]

Non US satellite observation exists and the accuracy is good but the time coverage is reduced. The US has almost 24h a day coverage while others have only a few hours a day coverage.

There is an alternative to Starlink, but not as good. It's not like Ukrainians will be cut off from all means of communication or intelligence.

Again, they cannot replace Starlink. From my previous post:

Eutelsat cannot replace Starlink in Ukraine, admitted CEO Eva Berneke, noting it couldn’t match Starlink’s tens of thousands of terminals or handle all Ukrainian communications, though it could support critical government functions. She criticized Starlink for creating dependency subject to White House or Mar-a-Lago decisions. Politico highlights Starlink’s 7,000 satellites versus Eutelsat’s 600, with the latter’s bulkier receivers resulting in 23-490 times lower connectivity capacity in Ukraine.

In other words, per the CEO of Eutelsat, they can only support “critical government functions”, but not the military activities. So there is no alternative and they would be cut off. Not sure what is the confusion here.

No, they don't need to and they better not to. And if you ask me, they really shouldn't. But they will want to, because that would give them the possibility to attack Odessa from the sea, to attack the south west part of Ukraine and disrupt the Grain Corridor.

They are attack Odessa from the Sea every few days and they are a threat to the Grain Corridor, which is outlined by some Ukrainian official in one of your posts I quoted above. Which is why it was important for Ukraine to get the sea ceasefire.

I didn't propose anything. I only provide my analysis of the situation. Zelensky is ready to stop fighting right now and start talking. As long as Russia doesn't apply the proposed ceasefire, talking about negotiation is pointless.

Which is why they cannot achieve anything there. Russia cannot accept an unconditional ceasefire. I outlined why this is the case in my previous posts. I read Fenaor doing the same. I think others did too, briefly.

Notice that I can now answer almost every point by simply quoting previous posts (including your own because you reverse on things all the time, depending on what is written in the Ukrainian propaganda outlets or told in some Youtube videos on any given day).

You can't restrict exports to Ukraine without restricting to Europe. If components arrive in Europe, they will end up in Ukraine.

There are things that are available to Europe today that are not available to Ukraine. This is not going to change. It would be crazy to assume that Europe (or anyone else, for that matter) would provide assets prohibited by US for reexport to Ukraine. Another point I made that you avoid is that the orders that are placed today are not going to be delivered until 2-3-4+ years down the line. So it is really an irrelevant discussion.

But my point is that if Trump doesn't show a minimum of support for Ukraine, Europeans will think that the US is not a reliable ally, see not an ally at all. Ans this has consequences and Trump knows it. A few weeks ago he didn't know it. Now, he does.

He knew that before too. But his thought process is probably different than yours. But, again, I am sure you have the insider info, as usual.

Why? We already have NATO troops, in large quantities, within artillery range to the Russian positions all along the border with Russia and Belarussia. That Russians fire at them in the Donbass or somewhere in Estonia doesn't make any difference.

I am not really sure what to say to this. If you think the two are the same thing, well…

It's a fact that the US hasn't removed or planned to remove a single soldier from Eastern Europe. I don't know if it requires special intel or knowledge to know that.

I showed you that this is not necessarily the case. In fact, everything suggests that it isn’t. You, again, however, probably have the insider info about their planning. I will end it at that.

 

[Fredled]

I didn't have time to analyse the "Mineral Deal" but it seems that both Americans and Ukrainians are happy with the deal. Trump has been inspired by the Holly Spirit at the burial of the Pope, for sure.

I think we are moving back into the realm of weapons sales, and hopefully weapon donations to UKR.

This opens the door to at least weapon sales. Al thought, before the deal was signed, most analysts didn't believe that an important package will be cleared in a foreseable future. It will be a surprise if a package will be announced. The Trump administration is not abainst helping Ukraine, but they think that Europe should bear the biggest share of the effort. They are right, but I suspect that Trump is still misled about the dollar amounts the US provided.

and if this continues into May, as it seems to be with the last burst north of Tarasovka, Ukraine is in for another tough year with the potential for losing both Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka on the table.

It does indeed:

I can confirm that on May 1, Russian forces significantly escalated their operations in the Kharkiv sector. Over the past day, eight combat engagements were recorded—an unusually high number—indicating intensified enemy activity along the entire frontline. Battles occurred in Lyptsi, in Vovchansk, where Russian forces have traditionally been highly active, and in Dvorichna, where Russians continue to move infantry across the Oskil River. Regarding Vovchansk, the city has suffered extreme devastation. It has virtually ceased to exist—it is now a total ruin, with not a single surviving building,”

link
Putin will want a markable victory for the May 9 Parade. Pro Ukrainian warbologgers and news channels floated the rumour of an attack on the Red Square that day. IMO, Ukrainians should at least try to cause an alert.

Russian losses are still very high. The Ukrainian Air Force used 1/3 of their sorties to strike ground targets. And this was done with F16s and Mirages2000.

In April, the Ukrainian aviation carried out over 610 sorties, including about 330 – for air cover; over 200 – for fire damage and air support of ground troops.

link

Ukraine still has issues with Hungary.

We have an unpleasant feeling about the aggressive rhetoric that exists in relation to Ukraine.

Mortar Shell Scandal: the director of a defense factory in the Dnipropetrovsk region and his deputy, who are suspected of supplying defective mortar shells to the front taken into custody.

Zelensky Arrests Arestovych with sanctions. I remember Arestovych was a diplomat or a spokeman at the beginning of the war...

Decree No. 267 introduces sanctions against Arestovych, Pavlo Onishchenko, and Myroslav Oleshko. The document includes a list of nine individuals accused of justifying Russia's aggression against Ukraine.
....
the sanctions include asset freezes, the revocation of state awards, trade restrictions, the prevention of capital outflows, the suspension of economic and financial obligations, and a ban on media distribution within Ukraine

_______________________

The rebellion was far too disorganized and wasn't demanding independence for a long time. At no point did any "entire Ukrainian army brigades" join any independence movement. By the time the independence referendum was in play, the war was in full swing. It wasn't a question of allowing Ukraine to organize a referendum. Ukraine considered the referendum illegal and was trying to wipe out the rebels. At no point was Ukraine willing to let these territories go, and at no point was the west willing to force them to.

Everything you wrote above is true, but it doesn't contradict what I said. Ukraine didn't want to let the territories go, that's why there was an armed conflict erupting. The independence referendum was illegal, that's why Ukraine said it was illegal.
I don't know if complete brigades turned to the rebel side but the number of soldiers from the Ukrainian army who did was equivalent. I mean several thousands. They took with them tanks and artillery. The Ukrainian government was almost as disorganised as the Lugansk and Dontesk ones.

Note that they already made a referendum in Donetsk and Lugansk in 1991 and 1994. 20 years earlier.

I suspect Ukraine will attempt to reconquer the territories a few weeks after a peace deal, just not with a full scale attack. I

No because Ukrainians are tired of the war. If they do that, there could be a rebellion inside the population. They will lose the last sympathy Trumps had for Ukraine. Europeans too, won;t be exited. A blatant breach of the peace agreement in short order doesn't seem viable to me.

Second, a few weeks after the peace deal, and forcibly the cease fire, Russian forced will be stronger than today. Putin is not going to withdraw his troops from Ukraine quickly. Unless he decides to engage in a new conflict elsewhere but that's unlikely a few weeks after the peace deal.
Russian losses will be down to zero while recruiting will continue. Recruiting will also be cheaper for Russia as there will be less risk to die. The number of Russian soldiers on the front line will only increase.

Third, even if it doesn't increase, small scale attacks won;t achieve anything. Ukraine already does small scale attacks.

If the political will is there, what prevents EU forces from entering? A lack of desire?

If Russia invade one more time, it would be too late to intervene. The Coalition of the Willing should be there to stop them before they took the advantage. The absence of European troops will be in itself a sign of a lack of will to defend Ukraine.

That being said, European forces will consist primarily in air and naval forces. Very few infantry troops on the front line, if any.

Second, if European forces enter Ukraine to attack Russians forces, they will be attacking, it will be an act of agression against Russia. However, if Russian attack European troops inside Ukraine, Russia is making the agression.
__________________

I will reply to KipPotapych later...

 

[KipPotapych]

I suppose I shall start.

I find some satisfaction in the "mineral deal" that was just signed. I think it has shifted the political needle some towards the UKR side. With the further waffling by Putin, I think we are moving back into the realm of weapons sales, and hopefully weapon donations to UKR.

Details are, of course, lacking even as far as the actual amount is concerned (it could be greatly reduced). Some context as far as pricing is concerned:



My understanding is that so far no refurbished aircraft has been shipped, but scrap parts, which is still a progress since the sales of parts was previously denied.

The overall position of the US appears to have softened (for now, which is important provided the attention span of the head of the current administration). Rubio now says that they may have to decide how much time they are going to spent in this rather than they are “done next week”.



They got their “mineral deal” though. Does anyone have a link to the details, if any available? I have seen some outlines, but nothing concrete.

Ukrainians from the frontlines report that Russia is now striking their positions with Shaheds in addition to the glide bombs.

 

[KipPotapych]

Also,



The feared consolidation appears to be taking place, according to the reports. For example:



This is bad news for Ukraine.

What’s supposedly left of the Kursk salient (Gerasimov claimed yesterday (or today?) that the Kursk region was fully liberated):

File under humour:

 

[PachkaSigaret]

Decommissioned F16s being loaded onto Antonovs for use of spare parts.

https://x.com/palik_jozef/status/1918006015842206071

SIGINT/Intelligence gathering flights are still ongoing at it's same pace. You can look everyday on Flightradar and see routine flights across the black sea, and circling Kaliningrad. I don't foresee a stoppage anytime soon. I wonder what the true cost has been operating such flights with frequency since the months leading up to the war till now. As for weapon shipments, I feel like Trump will try to bend Ukraine's arms here or there.. But there is no coherent strategy to a peace deal or anything of the likes. I think that the mineral deal was crafted just to give him another mundane talking point and slight ego victory. It seems to me weapon shipments will continue, perhaps not to the degree of the Biden administration, but that's besides the point. The war continues and it'll be interesting to see how things develop going forward.

Dima doesn't always hit the mark with his updates, however his map is rather consistent with Geolocations and corrections. Interesting enough Russia has gained the upper-hand for the Dnieper island battles. I'm wondering if Russia will make a cross Dnieper foray in earnest.

ThunderTroop Buildup On The Kherson Axis Pokrovsk Defense Collapses️ Military Summary 2025.05.02

Finally.. there is no good news coming out of Ukraine in regards to General Mobilization and busification. Apparently Syrsky has ordered rear personale who is fit medically(Including the TCC) to be sent to the front. Which I wonder how that'll work out, in many of the forced mobilization videos it often takes several men to try to apprehend one man.

 

[Redshift]

What other forums ? It might be fun to expose him.

Hindsight and memory has now told me that it was this forum lol!

 

[rsemmes]

I thought Kalibrated was overoptimistic, as usual.

Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps

Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.

www.google.com

But I doesn't look like another Ocheretino.

Those who are deciding are certainly looking for a solution that will be acceptable to Russia because it is Russia that is waging the war and Ukraine can do nothing to stop it without accepting some agreement that is unfavourable and not just. At least at this point in time. I don’t think this can be any clearer than it is.

It is not clear at all... For some people.
Ukraine will decide and the rest of the world must bend to its will.

 

[Fredled]

The Ukrainian "Do It Urself" unit (DIU) shot down a Russian Su-30 with an ground to air missile fired from a Magura maritime drone.This was confirmed by Rybar according to Heinrich Torsten

Interesting is where it happened: Novorosijsk is not close to Ukrainian Naval bases.

__________
As promised...

.... because you reverse on things all the time, depending on what is written in the Ukrainian propaganda outlets or told in some Youtube videos on any given day.

LOL ==> I reverse things because events are reversing at an accelerated rythme.

When I said that a ceasefire would be very bad for Ukraine, Trump didn't apply pressure on Ukrainians to accept his terms about the Mineral Deal and peace. I still think that a ceasefire is bad for Ukraine but not as bad as losing US support and and see the US switching side toward Russia. So, now, the goal for Zelensky is to get Trump on the Ukrainian side as much as he can. And that involves saying repeatedly that he agrees with the 30 days truce proposed by Donald Trump.

On the sideline, Zelemsky silently rejected the three days truce proposed by Putin because a short ceasefire would not be in favour of Ukraine.
A ceasefire is still bad for Ukraine because they can't fire on Russian troops anymore. And if they can't, the number of Russian troops on the front line will increase rapidly. more rapidly than Ukrainian troops because Ukraine is not recruiting as fast as Russia.
They can't strike on Russian rears neither. Something that they started to do with more efficiency. But that could be break even or even in favour of Ukraine.

Again, they cannot replace Starlink.

There is a big difference between "Starlink cannot be replaced" and "there is no alternative to Starlink". Yes, you can't replace Starlink by a system as good as Starlink. But it doesn't mean that Ukrainians will be cut off without anything if they use Eutelsat.
Anyway, it's irrelevant because Elon Musk doesn't want to disconnect Starlink off Ukraine.
Secondly, Ukrainians fought seven months in the Kursk Oblast without Starlink.

Russia cannot accept an unconditional ceasefire.

Why?

There are things that are available to Europe today that are not available to Ukraine. This is not going to change. It would be crazy to assume that Europe (or anyone else, for that matter) would provide assets prohibited by US for reexport to Ukraine.

There is no way the US can control or check what is being sent to Ukraine. They can control some top components like processor for cruise missiles or something for which each single unit is tracked. But they can't control things like NVidia processors or some spare parts which are produced by the tens of thousands. This is materially impossible for the US.

Another point I made that you avoid is that the orders that are placed today are not going to be delivered until 2-3-4+ years down the line. So it is really an irrelevant discussion.

You were talking about components. But ok. It's still relevant because we are talking about what was ordered 2-3 years ago and is about to be delivered now.

 

[KipPotapych]

Finally.. there is no good news coming out of Ukraine in regards to General Mobilization and busification.

From BBC Ukriane reporting:



For about the same money that Russia is offering to their recruits, only about 400 volunteered in Ukraine in 3 months. How crazy is that?

In the meantime,



Also in the meantime though, donkeys are now EW protected:

Apparently Syrsky has ordered rear personale who is fit medically(Including the TCC) to be sent to the front. Which I wonder how that'll work out, in many of the forced mobilization videos it often takes several men to try to apprehend one man.

It is about time they sent these fellas to the front. The “recruitment” would probably decrease further though, wouldn’t it? If it takes several of fully capable men to “recruit” one, it would probably take more semi-capable men to “recruit” the same guy.

 

[KipPotapych]

LOL ==> I reverse things because events are reversing at an accelerated rythme.

When I said that a ceasefire would be very bad for Ukraine, Trump didn't apply pressure on Ukrainians to accept his terms about the Mineral Deal and peace.

You said it a week after he halted US aid to Ukraine, the same day Ukraine and Europe proposed air, sea, and energy ceasefire, as outlined in my previous post in great detail. Two days later you switched and said that it was Russia who proposed the sea ceasefire after some Ukrainian rep told you so (energy was also the Russian idea, according to you, which is why this entire segment of the discussion started). Anyway, it’s not like something is going to change and there is no point to the conversation because you keep doing the same thing over and over, posting nonfactual information and timelines, constantly contradicting your own posts, so often that it really sticks out. And so on. I doubt this is going to change, so…

You also do not provide evidence. For example, I asked about how countries in the Indo-Pacific are increasing the aid to Ukraine, as you stated a couple of days or so ago, in particular, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan. I have not heard anything back. What about the “discovery” of F-35s being potentially remotely disabled by the Americans that you claimed a few weeks ago and never provided any evidence when asked? And so on.

They can't strike on Russian rears neither. Something that they started to do with more efficiency.

What is the point in time you are comparing the higher efficiency to?

There is a big difference between "Starlink cannot be replaced" and "there is no alternative to Starlink". Yes, you can't replace Starlink by a system as good as Starlink. But it doesn't mean that Ukrainians will be cut off without anything if they use Eutelsat.

The CEO of the company told you otherwise. I am not going to repost it again. It’s getting silly. The other two or three companies being considered in addition to Eutelsat have too few, too old satellites that are also way too high above the Earth (like about 30x times higher, if I recall correctly) to be of any effective use.

Secondly, Ukrainians fought seven months in the Kursk Oblast without Starlink.

How did that work out? Oh, my apologies, I forgot, it worked out great!

However, comms was one of the main obstacles Ukrainians on the ground complained about.

Why?

I said in my previous post that I already explained why I think this is the case. You would have to look back. Others explained why they think this is the case as well.

There is no way the US can control or check what is being sent to Ukraine. They can control some top components like processor for cruise missiles or something for which each single unit is tracked. But they can't control things like NVidia processors or some spare parts which are produced by the tens of thousands. This is materially impossible for the US.

See, the thing is that (I hope) not everyone thinks like you do when they make arrangements and enter agreements. You keep insinuating that Russia cannot be trusted, but you also keep suggesting that it is ok for the agreements and contractual obligations to be broken or “cheated on” (like this example here or Ukraine attacking at their convenience to retake the territory after the arbitrary agreement is reached and so on). You basically keep inadvertently (I think?) proving the Russian conviction that neither Ukraine nor Europe and, more generally, the West can be trusted. This is one.

The two is that everyone reasonable realizes that this “cheating” is highly unlikely to take place in this situation because if the “cheater” is caught, the consequences could be rather unpleasant for them. Sure, nothing could happen as well, but the risk is quite significant. That’s “honour” and the like aside, of course.

You were talking about components. But ok.

Was I? You are clearly misrepresenting the situation again. But ok. This is exactly what I said (copy-paste):

“What if the US imposes a ban on export of the “American stuff” (includes components, of course) to Ukraine?”

Putin will want a markable victory for the May 9 Parade.

People keep saying that every year. It’s silly. But to entertain the idea, he has the Kursk, which is more than enough. “Our brave troops had liberated the Russian lands from the enemy, that followed the Nazi occupants footprints and tried to and blah blah blah”. There is very little that can beat that, especially in the circumstances the Russian Army finds itself today in.

QUOTE="Fredled, post: 454492, member: 46062"]Pro Ukrainian warbologgers and news channels floated the rumour of an attack on the Red Square that day. IMO, Ukrainians should at least try to cause an alert.[/quote]
That would be the dumbest thing they could do on the day, in my opinion. That is why they are doing it now because they realize that it would be completely counterproductive to do it during the May 9 parade. Imagine how dumb that would be!? If they can change some of the international participants’ minds about attending though… Which is why the recent attacks. At least that’s how I see it.

QUOTE="Fredled, post: 454492, member: 46062"]Zelensky Arrests Arestovych with sanctions. I remember Arestovych was a diplomat or a spokeman at the beginning of the war...[/quote]
Arestovych was one of the Ukrainian representatives at the initial peace talks. He was also Zelensky’s advisor until early 2023, if memory serves me right. His resignation followed him pointing out that an alleged Russian strike (I don’t remember where, Dnipro perhaps?), with high number of civilian casualties, was actually the consequence of the work of air defences of Ukraine (which I also recall being obvious). He has been added to the infamous Mirotvorets database, declared to be a terrorist, etc. At least, he didn’t get “whacked” by the SBU and dumped in the centre of Kyiv like that guy, what’s his name… I can’t recall at the moment back.

Apologies for another wall of text, Redshift.


In other news, remember when I questioned the ability of Ukraine to produce ballistic missiles (also later cruise missiles) by themselves? Well, less than a month ago, the Ukrainian announced that their production of cruise and ballistic missiles has increased eightfold.

Ukraine Says Ballistic, Cruise Missile Production Increased ‘Eightfold’

Ukraine has announced a dramatic eightfold increase in its domestic production of cruise and ballistic missiles.

thedefensepost.com

My reaction, of course, was

In fact, I claimed that I don’t think they can produce effective ballistic missiles at all. Well, as Kyiv Post reported yesterday, I wasn’t far off, or not off at all:



In other words, they do not produce ballistic missiles. Note that the article cited above, also says that they are aiming to produce 3,000 cruise missiles in 2025 “to replenish stockpiles and strengthen deterrence”. See the gif just above for the appropriate reaction. Ironically, the article (and the UA minister cited) is not lying because if you produce zero to begin with and increase the production eightfold…

Regarding the “force of the willing”:



On the Shahed strikes (based on the UA GS reports):



Zelensky said that Russia is preparing a summer offensive from Belarus (where they are probably having their annual exercises), but he doesn’t know if it is going to be an offensive against Ukraine, Lithuania, or Poland. God forbid, he said. Lol.



Budanov says that they shot down two Su-30 jets, not one (gif above again or the “i don’t believe you” one, not sure which is more appropriate here?).

Two Russian Su-30 Flankers Downed By AIM-9s Fired From Drone Boats: Ukrainian Intel Boss

This, by the way, was waiting to happen. When was the first time the Ukrainians hooked these interceptors onto a “BEK”? Two years ago? One and a half? Not sure, but definitely seems like a looong time ago.

Watching the videos of the attack, It appears that Russians are now using FPV drones to hit the Ukrainian sea drones. Where are they launching them from? Helicopters? The “mothership” concept? Something else?

By the way, Fredled, these attacks would not be possible without Starlink, just like many of their other long-range attacks. Just an FYI, since we discussed this topic just now.

 

[KipPotapych]

Kireev was the guy’s name (who I said was “whacked”), it now hit me. Not sure about the spelling though. Kiryeyev, maybe? The guy was shot in the head by the SBU, some reports suggested torture, etc, the body was dumped somewhere in the centre of Kyiv, later proclaimed to be a mistake and miscommunication within the SBU, and, according to Budanov, he basically saved Ukraine in the very beginning. Crazy story. If I recall correctly, the WSJ had an article on the subject titled something like “A Ukrainian Hero or a Russian Spy” a couple of years ago, check it out (surely someone had reposted the whole thing by now). He also participated in the initial peace talks and thought that the deal was worth taking with some adjustments. He was killed before the talks ended.

 

[Fredled]

Apparently Syrsky has ordered rear personale who is fit medically(Including the TCC) to be sent to the front.

That's old news. I think they already announced that six months ago if not earlier.
Of course news are not good for Ukraine and Russians keep moving forward.
____________________

That would be the dumbest thing they could do on the day, in my opinion. That is why they are doing it now because they realize that it would be completely counterproductive to do it during the May 9 parade. Imagine how dumb that would be!?

Everything depends on what Trump agrees, and to a lesser extent, to what other Ukrainian allies agree.
If Trump say "Don't", Ukrainian won't do it. And Trump will probably ask them not to do it. But it would be great if he could let Ukrainians do it.

Of course threatening diplomats is not a good idea. (A direct hit on the Red Square will certainly fail anyway). But triggering an alert, preferably with loud bangs audible in the background, would be great. Really great.

Putin will be celebrating the neo-soviet Russian rise of power against democratic countries and his Pyrrhus victory in Ukraine.
This celebration should be interrupted by any means.

To avoid that he begged for a cease fire to secure this symbolically hostile event. How cynical! Hell with that. IMO, that's THE day when Ukrainians should rain a maximum of missiles and UAVs on Russia. Blowing fuel tanks or another large ammo depot so that smartphone videos of huge plumes can be seen on line.

Now, let's remember that Zelensky, every day, reiterates his proposal for a 30 days cease fire. A cease fire that Putin can't do. LOL. Sure, he is in the impossibility to do it now. How stupid we are...

...the same day Ukraine and Europe proposed air, sea, and energy ceasefire, as outlined in my previous post in great detail. Two days later you switched and said that it was Russia who proposed the sea ceasefire ....

Such proposals are first made behind closed doors to each other envoys. The information is released to the press days or weeks later. Then everybody is trying to be the first to promote the cease fire that the other proposed.

Ukraine and Europe offered and air and sea cease fire. Russia offered an energy cease fire (begged is more exact) when firefighters were at pain to extinguish the fire at his oil facilities, and this cease fire was the only one accepted by Russia and Ukraine.
At the same time, Trump offered a 30 days cease fire. Ukraine accepted the 30 days cease fire to keep US military aid coming. Russia so far rejected it. That's my version of events.

What is the point in time you are comparing the higher efficiency to?

Six months, one year...

 

[KipPotapych]

That's old news. I think they already announced that six months ago if not earlier.

It’s not. It’s new. The news you are referring to is different. Previously they proposed that the heads of the “recruitment offices”, whatever the proper name is, should be battle hardened veterans. That was a while back. If you look at my post, it mentions that about 70% of them now are. Reportedly.

If Trump say "Don't", Ukrainian won't do it. And Trump will probably ask them not to do it. But it would be great if he could let Ukrainians do it.

So you are now saying that it would be the Americans, and Trump in particular, calling the strikes on Russia’s military parade. That is insane.

To avoid that he begged for a cease fire to secure this symbolically hostile event.

He begged? Seriously, Fred. I understand your emotions, but common, man.

Now, let's remember that Zelensky, every day, reiterates his proposal for a 30 days cease fire. A cease fire that Putin can't do. LOL. Sure, he is in the impossibility to do it now. How stupid we are...

You portray yourself as completely irrational again. I am not kidding.

Such proposals are first made behind closed doors to each other envoys. The information is released to the press days or weeks later. Then everybody is trying to be the first to promote the cease fire that the other proposed.

Racing to be first to only say they were not the next day, right?

Ukraine and Europe offered and air and sea cease fire. Russia offered an energy cease fire

Contradicting your own posts and reality again here.

(begged is more exact)

Got proof? Your “analysis” doesn’t count.

At the same time, Trump offered a 30 days cease fire. Ukraine accepted the 30 days cease fire to keep US military aid coming. Russia so far rejected it. That's my version of events.

I am rather amazed how you can in one sentence explain the argument yet not follow through it at all as the train of your own thoughts suggests.

Anyway, we are clearly at an impasse here and it should stop at this. I believe I presented plenty of rationale behind my posts to illustrate my point, while you keep coming back with posts as the one above - zero rationale or proof behind it.

 

[seaspear]

Interesting story of a sea drone shooting down a Russian jet, It would be interesting to have more details of this event ,the altitude of the planes ,were they taking off near an airport ,was this a regular patrol that was anticipated,how did the drones acquire the jets position to shoot the sidewinders,was radar involved for the detection,Im not sure if you can just stick a heat seeking missile on a drone send it out into the Black sea like you have gone fishing and hope for something to come along, Certainly there would be some groups around the world who would look to replicate this ,perhaps navl carriers operating in areas of contest may want to take note

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/04/europe/ukraine-destroyed-russian-jet-seaborne-drone-first-intl

Ukraine said it downed fighter jets with drone boats for the 'first time in history,' destroying two $50 million Russian aircraft

Ukraine said it shot down two Russian Su-30 fighter jets using missiles on its Magura naval drones, calling it the first move of its kind in history.

www.yahoo.com

 

[PachkaSigaret]

For about the same money that Russia is offering to their recruits, only about 400 volunteered in Ukraine in 3 months. How crazy is that?

Thanks for the cited sources. 400, maybe not even is abysmal. They're not able to rotate forces properly, imagine being on the front for 2-3 years. The bravery of the mainline troops is admirable, however they can't possibly maintain forever. That's another factor as to why I don't think Ukraine would like a long term ceasefire. Once those forcibly mobilized troops exit the front, they'll do whatever it takes to not go back. So many "What if's" that could go very wrong for Ukraine(Especially the leadership) during such a peace.

 

[KipPotapych]

^ Partially agree. Definitely bravery wise.

They do manage some rotations. We mainly know this from the reports of people basically disappearing during the rotations and some coming back randomly after they have taken their time that they think they need/deserve/call it what you will (who can blame them?). This is the reason the UA authorities changed the laws so that these people do not get prosecuted when they come back (I feel like it was recently reported that they were changing it again, but I am not sure and certainly don’t remember the details). They also keep moving people around the front.

I wonder though… While the latest Ukrainian poll (discussed previously fairly recently) indicated that about 20% are ready to leave the country once they can, what about these people currently on the front? They have been doing this for (increasingly) long periods of time and this is what they do. They probably understand that it is completely unfair (I am talking about the rest if the capable Ukrainian society here) and such, but they also probably understand that it is only them, really… I saw Russian ads in support of the “SVO” that say something like “Who if not us”. This very much applies to the Ukrainian troops on the frontline, really. Who knows. There are many “corners” to discuss here and it would a very long discussion. I do tend to agree with you though.

Interesting story of a sea drone shooting down a Russian jet, It would be interesting to have more details of this event ,the altitude of the planes ,were they taking off near an airport ,was this a regular patrol that was anticipated,how did the drones acquire the jets position to shoot the sidewinders,was radar involved for the detection,Im not sure if you can just stick a heat seeking missile on a drone send it out into the Black sea like you have gone fishing and hope for something to come along, Certainly there would be some groups around the world who would look to replicate this ,perhaps navl carriers operating in areas of contest may want to take note

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/04/europe/ukraine-destroyed-russian-jet-seaborne-drone-first-intl

Ukraine said it downed fighter jets with drone boats for the 'first time in history,' destroying two $50 million Russian aircraft

Ukraine said it shot down two Russian Su-30 fighter jets using missiles on its Magura naval drones, calling it the first move of its kind in history.

www.yahoo.com

I definitely don’t have all the answers (and I asked some questions in my post above as well), but to answer some… They are basically using these jets to literally “gun into a stop” the Ukrainian USVs. I also read they are dropping cluster bombs on them from these very jets. So they are something that is expected to show up at one point or another (probably depending on some factors like proximity, urgency, weather conditions, etc). Like I said in my previous post, it was something that was long time in the making and they have had a few close misses previously (according to the reposts at least).


In the news:





A bit of Zelensky/Ukrainian democracy on display there.


An interesting video from the Ukrainian side showing an FPV hitting a rather well prepared Russian position. If only they had had a door of some kind.

https://x.com/YigalLevin/status/1919022839136436338

Same on Telegram for convenience:

SIGNUM

Стріляв по дрону, а в результаті видав своє укриття ▪️На Лиманському напрямку бійці батальйону «SIGNUM» вдало виконують свою роботу з очищення Серебрянського лісу від шкідників. ‍ По отриманим розвідданим нами було виявлено пункт управління росіян. Миттєве реагування і оптоволоконний дрон...

t.me

I am no expert, but it doesn’t look like a fiberoptic drone to me, judging by the video quality alone (I can be completely wrong here). So either ineffective EW or none at all. On the subject, Russians recently received about $10M (at current exchange rate) worth of EW systems that were basically fake stuff that didn’t work. The middlemen company has been charged with various crimes now, including corruption (there are a couple more previous charges as well for the same outlet). In Russian:

Закупленные в Китае для Росгвардии глушилки дронов оказались нерабочими подделками - Русская служба The Moscow Times

Росгвардия получила из Китая партию систем радиоэлектронной борьбы (РЭБ) «Выжигатель», которые оказались подделкой и не выполняли функцию противодействия дронам.

www.moscowtimes.ru

There are more and more reports coming in that Russia is not sending their newest production to Ukraine but is stocking it up. It does make sense as very briefly discussed previously. However, many of these reports seem to line up with “we are going to war with Russia in <insert number> years”. So it is hard to make anything out of it. Pretty much all western reports that one would think to be reliable that I saw indicate that Russians currently produce at least between 200 and 300 brand new T-90 MBTs per year. So at least one thing is clear: there is production (and it is actually quite significant compared to others). Since we do not see those arriving to the frontline in these quantities, it is reasonable to conclude that either production doesn’t exist or they are storing it in reserves. The latter seems more reasonable, no? Anyway, here is the latest (that I stumbled upon today) report that talks about the build-up of equipment. It appears to be behind a paywall, but the “refresh->stop” system worked for me on the phone (then translate to English).

Rusland stuurt zijn nieuwste tanks niet naar Oekraïne, maar in de richting van Europa, zegt MIVD

Inlichtingendienst: Rusland voert steeds vaker hack- en cyberoperaties uit in Nederland. Ook stuurt Moskou nieuw materieel niet naar Oekraïne, maar richting Europa, meldt de MIVD dinsdag in het jaarverslag.

www.nrc.nl

A brief discussion that I found to be interesting (all three individuals seen in the thread are very reliable for the info they provide):




The discussion originated with Mark Galeotti asking some questions in light of the German report that Russia will be ready to launch a large-scale war against NATO in 2029 (my opinion is well-known: this is insanity and so unlikely that we can round it down to almost impossible).

(Edit: that ^ is a UA outlet reporting, by the way. The link to the original tweet for those with X account, the embedded video is in English: https://x.com/United24media/status/1918943252926877831)

Galeotti’s question quoted in the original Kluge’s post above (for context):