ADF General discussion thread

downunderblue

Active Member
Australia does have significant power at Butterworth, combined with the Singaporean and Malaysian forces, maybe even indonesian forces. However, that area is a key focus for all powers. It will likely come under significant pressure.
The Five Powers Agreement is an enigma of history and focused on the defense of MY/ SG. The agreement is consultitive only (in the event of an attack against MY/SG) and I would bet my last dollar that legal authority for the RAAF to operate out of Butterworth would consist of defensive actions consistent with the agreement ONLY. We have to be realistic that the base would be closed down to the RAAF in the event of a regional conflict involving China.

From my experience, ASEAN are generally busy with their own crap to worry about others. The only power within ASEAN who will put its neck out are the Philippines and Marcos has cemented that with some assurance now that DU30 + family are negated. I love them but they arent far off a failed state (I was around during and in shock when Marawi happened) so they will base, but don't expect much more than that. Counting on Butterworth IMO is a just not realistic as Malaysia will stay non aligned out of fear and a seemingly blinkered believe in opportunity. SG will watch but like Switzerland they will ONLY worry about their soverignty/ borders. TG is already in the China camp (ref the recent Uyghur deportation) and Indo is Indo- they will cast a hollow smile at everyone, and be on the side of whoever offers them the greatest benefit- which atm seems to be China based upon Probowo's statements. I don't blame them tbh.

You also mention PNG. Don't forget we are the security partner of choice- for now. A few donations by the Chinese diaspora to a political opposition turned Govt and we are one step away from that changing, Rugby or not. Additionally if the US backs away from Taiwan, watch the whole region bar ROK, JP, PH and AU permanently look away. The whole concept of forward defense will be dead and we'll have to look to alternate strategies to secure ourselves.

Live fire exercises of a .50cal shooting at cardboard box off FBE will be the last of our worries then.
 

spoz

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
PNG nationals, as a group, do not like the Chinese, seeing them as monopolising trade in PNG, not caring much about the country and taking profits overseas to the detriment of PNG and the nationals. It’s a rather unfair view (if one that is also fairly common across Melanesia and Micronesia) but it is deeply held, and will greatly complicate China’s attempts to influence the region. It may also well be at least part of the reason for the division in the Solomons over the cozying up to China.
 

DDG38

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Recent reporting on the dire situation of ADF recruitment. One wonders if we need to scrap this absurd idea that hiring private companies to run military recruitment is a better option than having people in uniform do it. (article via subscription) :

Recruitment rates 'wholly deficient': minister
By Connor Pearce,The Canberra Times
Wednesday 19 March 2025

Performance notices issued under $1.4b Defence recruiting contract.

THE company in charge of turning around Australia's moribund Defence recruitment rates was told by the responsible minister its performance was "not satisfactory" and targeted recruitment rates were "wholly deficient", less than a year from taking on the $1.4 billion contract.

The Canberra Times has obtained correspondence between Defence Personnel Minister Matt Keogh and Swiss recruitment giant Adecco, exposing the depths to which the relationship had sunk.

"As we approach the completion of a full year of recruiting operations in support of the ADF, I am deeply disappointed with Adecco's performance," Minister for Defence Personnel Matt Keogh wrote in a letter dated May 30, 2024.

The letter details the deep misgivings Mr Keogh had about Adecco's performance, with the company failing to meet targets, requiring uniformed ADF personnel to support its operations and feedback from candidates about poor communication by Adecco.

Mr Keogh closes the letter with a withering assessment of Addecco's underperformance so far.

"In contracting with Adecco, Defence sought a partnership with an entity who could transform Defence's recruiting process to deliver a modern and scalable recruiting solution,' Mr Keogh writes.

"Adecco's current performance and actions to remediate deficiencies do not convince me that Adecco understands the seriousness of a failure to deliver against ADF need. I require assurance from the highest level that Adecco are taking all practical measures to rapidly improve recruiting results."

'Do better' notice

Within days from Adecco taking on the mammoth task of raising Australia's sub-par recruitment figures, there were already signs that recruitment figures were not going to meet targets.

On July 13, 2023 Adecco was issued its first performance notice, requesting it improve psychological assessment rates.

A month later, Adecco submitted a plan to recruit more psychologists, but this had to be revised after initial actions to improve the pace of psychological screenings had little impact.

A second performance notice in November 2023 required improvements in medical screening rates.

In Adecco's remediation plan, the company proposed using military doctors for medical screenings.

The correspondence reveals how these issues were resolved.

'Not acceptable'

On April 3, 2024, a letter from a senior Adecco executive in Zurich, Switzerland, was sent to Mr Keogh's office.

In the letter, the author, whose name is redacted, attempts to assure Mr Keogh that Adecco was taking significant action to rectify the slow rate of recruitment.

"I want to assure you that we understand the national significance of what we are delivering for Australia and the urgency with which we must act," the executive wrote.

The Adecco executive goes on to outline that Adecco Group CEO Denis Machuel was taking a direct interest in the performance of the contract, including travelling to Australia on a "regular basis".

"We believe we have come a long way in the nine months since we assumed responsibility on 1 July 2023, however we acknowledge we have much more to do and we need to do it faster," the author writes.

"Our CEO [redacted] will be in Australia in during [sic] the week of 15 July and would appreciate a meeting with you, if you have availability."

Mr Keogh wrote back on May 30.

"The understandings and explanations set out in your letter are not acceptable to me and I remain unconvinced that Adecco comprehends the gravity of its current circumstance. Indeed, assurances in your letter have already not been delivered," Mr Keogh wrote back.

Mr Keogh writes that the forecast result against the recruitment target for the 2023-24 year is "wholly deficient" and Adecco's performance to date "has not been satisfactory".

"The government has directed the ADF to grow significant by 2040 and current ADF recruiting performance, underpinned by Adecco's efforts, will not achieve this critical national security outcome."

A few days after Mr Keogh sent the scathing letter back to Adecco headquarters, Defence officials appeared at Senate estimates and were quizzed on current recruitment rates.

Secretary Greg Moriarty said the department was having issues with recruitment and retention.

"We are in a very challenging environment, and we are working hard to grow the numbers."

Officials listed COVID, low unemployment rates and increased numbers of people leaving the Defence force as reasons for missing its recruitment targets, but did not mention Adecco by name.

Hints at Adecco's poor performance and Defence's frustration with the contractor would only come out in a separate committee hearing in March 2024, when Lieutenant General Natasha Fox told the committee Adecco was on notice.

"The performance notice has been issued in relation to that and the remediation plans are in place."

Greens Senator David Shoebridge said Defence was not giving the public a full picture of the challenges in recruitment.

"The minister's letter is refreshingly, even if uncharacteristically, honest for Defence but it is in stark contrast to the public communications on recruitment. It turns out that Defence has been trying to paint roses on a binfire," Senator Shoebridge told this masthead.

"One obvious concern is that the minister wrote this caustic letter in May 2024, just nine months into the contract's operation, and now we are almost another year down the road with none of the targets being met."

In a statement to this masthead, Mr Keogh said figures since mid-2024 had improved.

"I'm pleased to say we have seen an increase in the number of people applying to join the Australian Defence Force and project that by the end of this financial year we are projected to enlist or appoint the highest number of full-time personnel in the past 15 years," Mr Keogh said.

What now?

Last month, chief of the ADF Admiral David Johnston told senators that 69,000 people applied to join the ADF in the past 12 month, an 18 per cent increase on the previous year.

Senator Shoebridge asked Lieutenant General Fox directly whether Adecco was meeting its targets.

"In terms of getting people in, they've blown out their targets on speed by more than a hundred per cent and they've missed the numbers by 28 per cent," Senator Shoebridge summarised.

Mr Keogh said the range of initiatives undertaken by Adecco was leading to more candidates making their way through the process, but if there continued to be slippage, there could be further actions.

"These initiatives indicate an anticipated uplift in the performance and achievement of Adecco in the next financial year," he said.

"I am taking an active interest in Adecco's performance of their contract and all options remain on the table if Adecco does not meet their obligations in future."

Senator Shoebridge said he remained pessimistic about whether Australia's recruitment targets would be met. "It's a case study in the deeply ingrained culture of secrecy and cover-up inside Defence," he said. "Until these issues are addressed, we can throw endless buckets of money at Defence and outsource projects across the portfolio, but the results will not change."
 

DDG38

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
And from the sublime to the latest genius suggestion from the IPA :

Institute of Public Affairs calls on government to close down ADFA, slash senior officer ranks

Bursting the ‘Canberra bubble’ plaguing the military’s leadership woes must be a priority, argues a group of defence experts, who are urging the next government to shake up the ADF’s hierarchy.

Harry Brill, The Daily Telegraph
March 18, 2025 - 6:30AM

The Institute of Public Affairs has called on the next government to scrap the Australian Defence Force Academy and instead have trainee officers educated across the nation.

Bursting the ‘Canberra bubble’ plaguing the military’s leadership woes must be a priority of the next federal government, argues a group of defence experts, who are urging whoever wins the upcoming election to slash one-third of the organisation’s senior officers, as well as shut down the Australian Defence Force Academy (ADFA) in a bid to shake up the ADF’s hierarchy.

The call comes as both major parties continue to jostle over defence funding ahead of a looming election, which appears to have a khaki tinge.

However, while the major parties debate who would pump more billions into defence, a team of defence experts at the Institute of Public Affairs have penned a report urging both parties not to be swept up in a funding tit-for-tat, but to remove the “unimaginative” and risk-averse” senior officers leading the military.

“Government must reduce by one-third the numbers of ADF senior officers and Senior Executive Service public servants in Defence,” the report said.

“We must rapidly shrink a level of senior management which has become too unimaginative and risk-averse, strengthening Defence’s ability to make quick decisions, push delegated decision-making to the right management and accountability levels.”

With the ADF having doubled its number of generals in 20 years, IPA director of law and policy John Storey said the top-heavy presence had led to “cultural issues”.

“We’re talking about (commanders who) have become excessively bureaucratic, excessively career-focused - rather than mission focused - excessively insular and resistant to change,” he told the NT News.

“A lot of these generals need to find something to do, so they get allocated various roles that are really secondary to defence.”

The report also called on the next government to close down ADFA - a university campus responsible for educating trainee officers across Army, Air Force and Navy.

“Rather than concentrating university education for officers in Canberra, we think that Defence should locate officer trainees broadly across Australia,” the report said.

“Part of this training might be in a Defence University, which operates small education facilities in our major capital cities, perhaps co-located with current Defence establishments and linked to different civilian universities.”

Established in the 1980s, the bulk of the ADF’s senior leaders have graduated from ADFA.

However, Mr Storey maintained ADFA had come at a cost, limiting the average ADFA graduate’s understanding of civilian values, ideas and expectations concerning defence.

“(By removing ADFA), it would address the tendency to think of a career in the ADF as tied to Canberra and everything that entails, such as bureaucracy, managing government, public affairs and procurement,” he said.

“It would also mean graduates would have a broader experience, have contact with people in the private sector whose skills and experience will become more relevant.”

The report also said ADFA had contributed to the ADF becoming a “less publicly connected” organisation.

“(The ADF is) less inclined to to explain its business to the public, media or Parliament, more controlling of information, more inclined to see engaging outside of its own ranks as a risk rather than an opportunity,” the report said.

“The more defence does this the less there is public understanding, interest and support for spending the massive sums of money needed to modernise and strengthen the ADF.”

Former Army officer and Solomon MP Luke Gosling maintained ADFA was a “world-class” which provided “cutting-edge” military training to its cadets.

“However, ADFA is much more than just an educational institution — it’s a place where lifelong friendships are built. People from all walks of life come together, united by a shared commitment to serving Australia,” he said.

“Trainee Officers graduate with strong academic capabilities, a global perspective, and the ability to work in diverse cultural contexts, shaped by three years of international exchanges and collaboration.”

Mr Gosling also rejected the notion ADFA was an echo chamber of military dogma.

“ADFA’s diversity is one of its greatest strengths. It brings together people from the west coast, east coast, the south, and the Top End, combined with cadets from partner countries fostering camaraderie and providing an unmatched leadership and teamwork experience.”
 

downunderblue

Active Member
PNG nationals, as a group, do not like the Chinese, seeing them as monopolising trade in PNG, not caring much about the country and taking profits overseas to the detriment of PNG and the nationals. It’s a rather unfair view (if one that is also fairly common across Melanesia and Micronesia) but it is deeply held, and will greatly complicate China’s attempts to influence the region. It may also well be at least part of the reason for the division in the Solomons over the cozying up to China.
Indonesia is traditionally similar in their suspicion of the Chinese, both involving diaspora and from their interference with IN politics under Sukarno.

The thing is, ASEAN is all about pragmatism and short term survival/ opportunism. This is exampled by Probowo's engagement with China and Xi. Forget the past and focus on $$$.

My point is regional diplomacy in SEAsia and the Pacific is often dictated on what's in it for me, not who is giving it to me.

On another note but still staying regional, I watched a video of SG's former foreign minister George Yeo recently addressing a Taiwanese. audience and was shocked but not shocked tbh. Have a listen yourself. He's basically telling the Taiwanese to cede themselves to PRC authority in order to avoid a devastating regional conflict where no party prevails. He seems to think the longer they wait to negotiate their return, the worse it is for them. His logic is fundamentally flawed imo but watch it for yourself (he speaks really well). He reminds me of the Singapore I saw regionally, self serving and only worried about how the world affects them. There is is significant neutrality to SEAsia where they think they can play a fine line on the fence. I shouldn't be surprised as again it's of pure self interest but wonder how they sleep at night happily forcing a free people to cede their sovereignty/ way of life and human rights over threat of a gun or fear of getting hurt.

If Singapore is going this way reading the tea leaves, expect more people to follow purely out of perceived opportunism.

Let me know if you watch it, as it's quite illuminating.
 

downunderblue

Active Member
Recent reporting on the dire situation of ADF recruitment. One wonders if we need to scrap this absurd idea that hiring private companies to run military recruitment is a better option than having people in uniform do it. (article via subscription) :
It's good too see that applications are up but yes there seems to be a significant blocker in getting people in.

I can't comment on the contracting but I recently watched some of the nomination hearings to the US Senate Armed Services Committee as well as commentary here and there seems to be general consensus that campaigns based around 'self actualisation'/ being the best you can be are less effective than historic ones calling on duty, honour and service.

Regardless of the Mike Brady style, do you think a newer version of "you'll be wet, you'll be homesick and frightened, but the pride of the fleet will be you' would inspire more recruits to apply?

 
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