The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[kato]

Ukraine doesn't have the same amounts of funds that Russia enjoys. They can't give much. I also imagine that the number of people applying is much higher on the Ukrainian side than in territories occupied by Russia.

Ukraine manages applications for compensation through a mobile phone app. During the first year of the war about 350,000 applications were made, without checking their veracity. Considering evaluations of satellite pictures in 2024 about half of those applications are possibly fraudulent.

Planning for the compensation method is that local authorities inspect the destroyed property at some point and will assign "exchange codes" to approved applications which people will only be able to spend on construction materials and construction work; alternatively they may buy property for an assigned sum elsewhere in Ukraine in lieu of renouncing any claim to other compensation.

 

[KipPotapych]

^ Something like that. There is plenty of information about the program here:

Housing compensation programme - Ukraine is Home

Learn about the conditions for receiving financial compensation from the Ukrainian government for damaged or destroyed property.

ukraineishome.org

 

[Armchair]

So some compensation is available but given the scope and scale of the conflict, this is a drop in a bucket. It seems to me that you're trying to defend/explain why Ukraine can't provide compensations. I'm aware of the limitations Ukraine faces. Objectively, however, Ukrainian civilians are feeling this war far more even when they're in similar circumstances to their Russian counter-parts. This also only talks about compensation for housing. In the case of Russia my understanding is that if a Pantsyr stage falls on your car while Russian air defenses intercept something, you get compensated. Ukraine fires off SAMs in dense urban areas all the time doing property damage. This contributes to Ukraine's population feeling the war.

Are the circumstances similar though? I see what you mean but if Ukraine chose not to use its extensive ground based air defences in urban environments (so its citizens don’t feel the war or so the government can avoid compensation payments) central Kyiv would now look like Gaza, and Ukraine’s leaders would be dead. Morality aside, Ukraine does not have the same capacity to inflict devastation on Russian cities and command structure.

 

[Feanor]

Are the circumstances similar though? I see what you mean but if Ukraine chose not to use its extensive ground based air defences in urban environments (so its citizens don’t feel the war or so the government can avoid compensation payments) central Kyiv would now look like Gaza, and Ukraine’s leaders would be dead. Morality aside, Ukraine does not have the same capacity to inflict devastation on Russian cities and command structure.

No, no no. The circumstances of a Russian civilian whose house burned down and the circumstances of a Ukrainian civilian whose house burned down.

 

[Redshift]

Ukraine fires off SAMs in dense urban areas all the time doing property damage. This contributes to Ukraine's population feeling the war.

This almost suggests that it's better to let the incoming munitions hit rather than attempt to bring them down.

Surely it is obvious that the Ukrainian population would feel the war even more if all of the Russian missiles and drones were simply allowed to hit their targets unimpeded by Ukrainian SAMs?

 

[rsemmes]

I've got this from Izsvestiia two days ago and then theguardian/theindependent mentioning it.

Putin called the situation in the Kursk region very difficult

A very difficult situation has developed in Kursk region. This was stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting with the regional deputy head Alexander Khinshtein on February 5.The news is supplemented by

en.iz.ru

What is "very difficult"? I see this...

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=51.138385995649664%2C35.40047409295367&z=12

Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps

Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.

www.google.com

https://www.globalsecurity.org/jhtm...r/images/map-russo-ukraine-20250206-02.jpg|||

[/URL]

Another try in another road?

Edit:
Half of Andriivka (Pokrovsk) and Figolivka (Dvorichna/Kupiansk area) are "easy" for Ukraine?

 

[Fredled]

Kursk:

I've got this from Izsvestiia two days ago and then theguardian/theindependent mentioning it.
en.iz.ru
Putin called the situation in the Kursk region very difficult
A very difficult situation has developed in Kursk region. This was stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting with the regional deputy head Alexander Khinshtein on February 5.

IMO, it was a big mistake for Putin to bring North Korean soldiers there because it gave motivation, both to Ukraine and to NATO allies, to fight and win there.
For Ukraine, to show that they are able to defeat, not only Russians, but also North Koreans. For NATO to show North Korea that their elite troops are no match against NATO weapons and NATO allies.
IMO, it's possble that Ukrainians increased there forces in Kursk because of the North Korean deployment instead of gradually scalling down.

Diplomacy:
Zelensky confirms he is ready for talks with Putin.
It seems to me, that there were no decree forbiding negociations with Russia, or even with Putin.
I thought at first that there was a decree forbidding to talk with the person of Vladimir Putin only, as it was reported by the press, while still allowing negociations with other Russian diplomats.

In fact, it was only a decree to apply the statement by the Ukrainian National Security Council. This statement, and therefore the presidential decree that puts it in effect, is simply saying that it's "impossible" to talk with Putin.

Impossible doesn't mean forbidden.

1. Констатувати неможливість проведення переговорів з Президентом Російської Федерації В.Путіним.

Signed Olexii Danilov, September 30, 2022, link: president.gov.ua

My translation:

1. to constate (From French constater, synonymes: To relay information in a statement, to ascertain, to assert, to notice, to establish,... Source: wiktionary.org ) the impossibility to conduct discussion (talks, negotiations...) with the President of the Russian Federation V.Putin

Constating doesn't mean forbidding or imposing neither.

Weapons:

About 70% of all weaponry s and military equipment deployed on the battlefield comes from international aid.

link

Mirage 2000:

First of all, our Mirage 2000s will save lives in the same way as about a dozen F-16s do now. If you look at the level of interception of Russian cruise missiles since July, it has increased by 20 per cent: from 60 per cent of intercepted missiles, the Ukrainians have gone up to 80 per cent. (<== Note: He quotes Ukrainian numbers.)

.... The main advantage of the French fighter jets modified for Ukraine is their ability to hit targets with long-range SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles.

The Mirage 2000-5 now has bombing capabilities that it did not have in the French army. The aircraft have been modified to be able to launch SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Today, only old Su-24 fighter jets can do this... So the fact that the Ukrainian Air Force will now have a broader base means that they will increase their striking potential.

.... If the Ukrainians had received such capabilities back in 2022, the counteroffensive in the summer of 2023 could have been successful.

link

 

[Feanor]

This almost suggests that it's better to let the incoming munitions hit rather than attempt to bring them down.

Surely it is obvious that the Ukrainian population would feel the war even more if all of the Russian missiles and drones were simply allowed to hit their targets unimpeded by Ukrainian SAMs?

Good question. It depends on whether you think the inbounds are going to hit something the civilians care about. I suspect that it's a lose-lose situation. Let Russia bomb the energy grid into sawdust and you'll have problems. Fire off SAMs in a dense urban area and have problems. My comparison here is not between options Ukraine has but between the experience of the war of a Russian and Ukrainian civilian in a town or city where the other side is conducting strikes.

I've got this from Izsvestiia two days ago and then theguardian/theindependent mentioning it.

Putin called the situation in the Kursk region very difficult

A very difficult situation has developed in Kursk region. This was stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting with the regional deputy head Alexander Khinshtein on February 5.The news is supplemented by

en.iz.ru

What is "very difficult"? I see this...

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=51.138385995649664%2C35.40047409295367&z=12

Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps

Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.

www.google.com

https://www.globalsecurity.org/jhtm...r/images/map-russo-ukraine-20250206-02.jpg|||

[/URL]

Another try in another road?

Edit:
Half of Andriivka (Pokrovsk) and Figolivka (Dvorichna/Kupiansk area) are "easy" for Ukraine?

Here's another version of where Ukrainian forces are as a result of the recent counter-attack. Note prior to this, Ukraine recaptured most or all of Makhnovka, so it's the second attack in this direction. Russian sources claim the Ukrainian elements in these areas lost all their vehicles and it's the surviving dismounts and vehicle crews scattered in the area. But the other side of this is that there are Russian assaults where the vehicles are lost but the Ukrainian positions are taken. Unlike the attack at Berdin we can't yet conclude that this one was a complete failure. If Russian forces mop up the remaining Ukrainian forces in a few days then yes, but if Ukraine manages to dig in and set up resupply and troop rotations in these areas, then it would be a successful attack.

Новости СВО и Мира ©

Курская область • Уланок Примерная обстановка на карте. Черкасская Конопелька примерно пополам. Техника хохла разбита. Какое-то количество хохлов рассеяно и находится на отмеченном жёлтым цветом участке, их добивают наши войска, если враг не будет кидать новые резервы, то в этой кишке их в...

t.me

 

[Fredled]

@Feanor I don't think that withdrawing after a raid on enemy positions is enough to conclude that it was a failure. First of all, you have to know the goal of the operation, which is most of the time, secret. Then the loss balance. Then other things. For example, if the raid prevented another attack, then it's a success even if they didn't take more territory. Or if they destroyed important assets.

 

[Feanor]

@Feanor I don't think that withdrawing after a raid on enemy positions is enough to conclude that it was a failure. First of all, you have to know the goal of the operation, which is most of the time, secret. Then the loss balance. Then other things. For example, if the raid prevented another attack, then it's a success even if they didn't take more territory. Or if they destroyed important assets.

I don't think it was a raid, as we don't have any evidence of a withdrawal. We have evidence of an attack that reached the outskirts of Berdin losing many vehicles and personnel. There's no evidence of any destroyed important Russian assets nor of any organized withdrawal by Ukrainian forces. There is evidence of considerable casualties and some POWs taken. It has all the hallmarks of a failed attack. If there's evidence of something else, I'd be interested to see it.

EDIT: FighterBomber is of the opinion that Ukraine's last counter-attack in Kursk region while costly was at least partially successful. I wouldn't be surprised if this is accurate.

Fighterbomber

Ситуацию на Курском направлении можно описать как нихуя непонятную и неопределенную. Но совершенно точно представители обеих сторон как обычно пиздят ошибаются и истина где-то посередине. Совершенно определено, поставленных целей хохол не добился. Совершенно точно пиздюлей хохол отхватил...

t.me

EDIT2: Confirmation of Ukrainian forces holding ground after the last push is now coming from Russian sources including the village of Kolmakov. The situation in Cherkasskaya Konopel'ka and Fanaseevka remains unclear, Russian sources claim Ukraine failed to secure positions there and got pushed out.

War Reports

Kursk front at 7th February - The Ukrainian Army has captured Kolmakov village [+3km2] Курское направление на 7 Февраля - Украинская Армия захватила село Колмаков [+3км2]

t.me

Новости СВО и Мира ©

Курская область • Черкасская Конопелька В Черкасской Конопельке идёт зачистка. В районе Фанасеевки осталось несколько 300х всук. На данный момент весь нахрюк наши бойцы свели в ноль, думаю к завтрашнему утру завершится полная зачистка, если враг не решит снова рыпаться.

t.me

 

[rsemmes]

Russia sent a patrol across the Oskil, now it has a firm bridgehead and may threaten Kupiansk from the north.

Is Ukraine going to threaten Oboiian? Belgorod? I still cannot understand Putin's "very difficult". On the other hand, he should know what troops he has there and what troops he is not going to use to clear the area.
I don't think the situation will be the same, not even in June.

 

[Fredled]

@rsemmes "Very difficult" is an understatement.

 

[hauritz]

There is a theory that is you stand very still FPV drones will not be able to detect you. I remember first seeing this theory put into practice in the Jurassic Park movie. Anyway Russian instructors still teach to Russian infantrymen to freeze as soon as they spot a drone.

x.com

x.com

 

[seaspear]

Sounds like how a Sloth ( a very slow animal) reacts when spotting a Jaguar it freezes , perhaps some of these instructors should go to the war and demonstrate

 

[Stampede]

Sounds like how a Sloth ( a very slow animal) reacts when spotting a Jaguar it freezes , perhaps some of these instructors should go to the war and demonstrate

The drone thing is a work in progress.
A lot of speculation as to where this realm is heading
As for the poor infantryman caught in the open?
You cannot out run a small drone and increasingly it’s a difficult proposition to hide from one
A dammed situation that everyone is trying to find an answer for with seemingly not enough success.

No doubt dramatic force structural changes going forward.

Cheers S

 

[Feanor]

Sounds like how a Sloth ( a very slow animal) reacts when spotting a Jaguar it freezes , perhaps some of these instructors should go to the war and demonstrate

It got mockery in Russian sources too.

The drone thing is a work in progress.
A lot of speculation as to where this realm is heading
As for the poor infantryman caught in the open?
You cannot out run a small drone and increasingly it’s a difficult proposition to hide from one
A dammed situation that everyone is trying to find an answer for with seemingly not enough success.

No doubt dramatic force structural changes going forward.

Cheers S

So far a combination of EW and shotguns seems to be the solution, but an imperfect one at best. Meanwhile creative attempts to work around the situation will continue. Russia built an entire corridor of nets along the road from Artemovsk/Bakhmut to Chasov Yar. Turning tanks into sheds, and building complex cage structures around various vehicles continues and even Ukraine is moving away from their neat foldable cages to more massive and rigid structures. And with wire-guided drones, I suspect some sort of anti-drone capability will have to be present on large numbers of vehicles, possibly every APC/IFV/MBT.

 

[KipPotapych]

For the past week or two, Ukrainians have been launching (successful) small counterattacks here and there and their intensity is increasing, especially around the Pokrovsk area. I wonder if there is a fundamental change or a temporary occurrence. It comes with the Russian offensive slowing down as well, along with a clear shortage of armour on the Russian side.

The (UA reported) number of bombs dropped by the Russian AF has now recovered. However, more than half are dropped in the Kursk region.

Edit: I should probably add though, reportedly, Ukraine had moved (and is moving) serious amount of reinforcement to the Pokrovsk area, which surely has an effect.

 

[Fredled]

The problem with drones is that we don't have systems adapted to shot them down. We have to create new weapons, now ammunitions, new pointing devices. All we use now are existing guns, designed for completely different tasks that we try to use against drones.

 

[Fredled]

Official War Update
For the first time, Ukrinform released a map by map summary of the fighting on the front line.
It came as a surprise for me because we used to see up to date maps only on unofficial channels. Or outdated ones on official chanels. But never both at the same time.
More over, the maps they are presenting seem realistic.

Let's see if they will make daily releases or just once in a while...
_____________________
Strike on Energy Assets
Ukraine, one more time, hit an oil facility last night. We shouldn't forget that at the same time Russia bombards Ukraine with much more powerful means.
Russians fire 19 missiles at gas production facilities in Poltava region

Fortunately for Ukraine, when there are disruptions in the energy sector, they have the full backing from European states.
_______________________
Lend-Lease

Today, I will introduce the FREEDOM FIRST LEND-LEASE ACT to give President Trump flexible authorities to send war-winning weapons to our partners including Ukraine to deter War Criminal Putin,"

The words that he uses are important. It's not just a commercial deal. It's also about winning the war.
_______________________

Fight against Corruption
Negotiations are underway with international partners to return USD 39 million seized in Switzerland to Ukraine from corruption cases.

What is interrresting is not the sum, but the detail they give about who was arrested in internal corruption cases in Ukraine:

according to National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) Director Semen Kryvonos, last year detectives brought 113 accusations to court, of which 10 were related to Ukrainian Members of Parliament, five – members of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and their deputies, nine – judges, seven – category ‘A’ government officials, and four – prosecutors.

 

[Feanor]

For the past week or two, Ukrainians have been launching (successful) small counterattacks here and there and their intensity is increasing, especially around the Pokrovsk area. I wonder if there is a fundamental change or a temporary occurrence. It comes with the Russian offensive slowing down as well, along with a clear shortage of armour on the Russian side.

The (UA reported) number of bombs dropped by the Russian AF has now recovered. However, more than half are dropped in the Kursk region.

Edit: I should probably add though, reportedly, Ukraine had moved (and is moving) serious amount of reinforcement to the Pokrovsk area, which surely has an effect.

There will be details in the next update but yes. Arguably this is the most significant development on the front lines recently. A series of Ukrainian counter-attacks have virtually hated Russian advances and pushed them back I'm a couple of spots. Russian forces are still gaining some ground but overall the forces on the flanks of Pokrovsk are stalled. There is a continuing westward push south of Pokrovsk that could eventually veer north to bypass the stubborn defenses further west but this is a long ways off. This isn't the first time we've seen a flurry of counter-attacks right after the arrival of reinforcements for a time. Only for the fresh forces to get chewed up and Russian advances to resume. And there upcoming negotiations. If Ukraine is serious about ending the war as part of Trumps announced negotiations then it would make sense to put up maximum resistance now to avoid losing or even partly losing Pokrovsk before they start. The other theory would be that Russia is running out of steam. It will take some time to see which is true and Russia certainly is still attacking, suggesting the former is more likely than the latter.