Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates 2.0

[Bob53]

Speculation is that the election will be called late January or early February 2025 as that time line suits the incumbent government better strategically.

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[Bob53]

We (the UK) don't have the budget for nuclear-powered cruisers or destroyers. The RFI was a very odd development, and has been generally seen to be a request for information made out of curiosity than because it's actually something the Royal Navy or MoD thinks is viable.

Isn’t the development of SMRs mean to drastically reduce the costs?

 

[Bob53]

I get your point, but I was thinking more based off the American program. Their budget forecasts having about half a dozen first generation LOSVs before 2030. These are not prototypes, but in service craft (so actual missile carrying vessels attached to destroyers or frigates). Admittedly this program has been delayed by about 2 years from first ship in 2025 to now 2027.

Vanguard, the latest of the prototypes went into service in about May, and from what I have read there is a further two prototypes for release in 2025. It's attached to fleet units for more rigourous testing, hopefully some of this might be made public next year.

I would have thought there should be sufficient information over the next couple of years to assess the viability of the unmanned craft. I should note key enablers, such as remote firing, containerised VLS and basic autonomous navigation are already functional concepts.

That aside, even if it remains as a staffed vessel, I think it still stacks up as a cheaper, more flexible and more survivable strategy.

In regards to the T83. I honestly can't see the UK being able to afford an entirely new hull design. I would view it being a modified T45 or T26 at best. It might get a larger propulsion pack (say for a T26 a second turbine), and a larger generation capacity for future electrical weapons.

I would also view the Brits would likely extend the existing T45s for another 10 years, as they are getting some expensive upgrades through to about 2032. This means they would also delay any design work on a replacement and it would unlikely align with when we need to commence work.

So we would pick a Japanese design, perhaps the American DDX, or stick with our own platforms and evolve them for our Hobarts. Maybe they might get extended into the 2040s as well.

what makes sense Australia is to continue to build hunter hulls and update them for the next 30-40 years. It’s a large versatile hull. But of course we will pick something else and waste billions going no where.

 

[old faithful]

I think it's fair to assume that the next election will be called, before the next budget is due, as it will likely be in deficit.
An announcement of the GPF would be called before the election so Labor could claim to be strong on defence.
I am betting the election will be called after Australia day, maybe early Feb next year.

 

[Todjaeger]

what makes sense Australia is to continue to build hunter hulls and update them for the next 30-40 years. It’s a large versatile hull. But of course we will pick something else and waste billions going no where.

Frankly I am more concerned about Australia spending significant coin establishing another/new naval shipyard, and then there being a major bun fight over ensuring sufficient naval construction orders get placed to keep the yards active. That or some bright parochial pollie will decide that their state should get some of the defence funding largess and try and direct funding to establish yet another yard facility for orders.

 

[Bob53]

Hopefully, if they get in, the Coalition will see these are the more capable ships. With a significantly lower cost than the Hobarts and Hunters we will get more bang for our bucks. Let's hope common sense prevails and we end up with a rare bipartisan approach to this.

If the coalition get in th smartest thing they can do for RAN capability is STFU and continue on.

 

[Bob53]

I think it's fair to assume that the next election will be called, before the next budget is due, as it will likely be in deficit.
An announcement of the GPF would be called before the election so Labor could claim to be strong on defence.
I am betting the election will be called after Australia day, maybe early Feb next year.

Not beyond the realms of possibilit.

 

[StevoJH]

Regarding SMR’s please keep in mind that at least from what I can see, they are small only when compared to a regular commercial grid scale reactor.

The building footprint for a commercial SMR is still significantly larger than what would be available on a surface combatant unless something has changed since I last looked.

 

[Going Boeing]

what makes sense Australia is to continue to build hunter hulls and update them for the next 30-40 years. It’s a large versatile hull. But of course we will pick something else and waste billions going no where.

If, in the distant future, the RAN was to end up with 6 Hunters, 3-6 AWD‘s based on the Hunter hull and 11 Evolved Mogamis, they would enjoy an improved logistics and support structure - especially on the power plant side as the Mogami uses the same gas turbine (MT-30) as the Hunter.

The radar systems (CEA) and combat system (AEGIS/9LV) in the Hunter would obviously form the basis of what’s required in an AWD variant based on that hull.

 

[iambuzzard]

If, in the distant future, the RAN was to end up with 6 Hunters, 3-6 AWD‘s based on the Hunter hull and 11 Evolved Mogamis, they would enjoy an improved logistics and support structure - especially on the power plant side as the Mogami uses the same gas turbine (MT-30) as the Hunter.

The radar systems (CEA) and combat system (AEGIS/9LV) in the Hunter would obviously form the basis of what’s required in an AWD variant based on that hull.

And a fairly potent combat force. If the build for optionally crewed missile boats, and that's what they are, is substantially increased we will have a very robust fleet that should deter any potential aggressor (we hope)!

 

[Reptilia]

Personally, I hope things continue as is. I think if the coalition came to power, we may see alot of purchases without much thought process.
From 2025 we should start to see quite a bit of new kit and most of the big items will be on order, I think labor can get alot done, streamline a few things with a second term prior to any major shift in capability in 2029/2030.

Coalition, 2025-2029, good, bad, about the same?
GPF selection
Streamlining maintenance
Hobart class upgrades
Getting Supply class back into service
AS9/AS10/IFV/CRV/Bushmaster etc production
Airforce upgrades
Overseeing LOTE
Building infrastructure for GWEO
Upgrading multiple defence precincts
Keeping the budget in check without massive blowouts
Bolstering Relationships Oceania/Asia and elsewhere
Etc etc

 

[SammyC]

Personally, I hope things continue as is. I think if the coalition came to power, we may see alot of purchases without much thought process.
From 2025 we should start to see quite a bit of new kit and most of the big items will be on order, I think labor can get alot done, streamline a few things with a second term prior to any major shift in capability in 2029/2030.

Coalition, 2025-2029, good, bad, about the same?
GPF selection
Streamlining maintenance
Hobart class upgrades
Getting Supply class back into service
AS9/AS10/IFV/CRV/Bushmaster etc production
Airforce upgrades
Overseeing LOTE
Building infrastructure for GWEO
Upgrading multiple defence precincts
Keeping the budget in check without massive blowouts
Bolstering Relationships Oceania/Asia and elsewhere
Etc etc

It's going to be a busy four years. We will be in a very different place by the end of it.

 

[Anthony_B_78]

I think it's fair to assume that the next election will be called, before the next budget is due, as it will likely be in deficit.
An announcement of the GPF would be called before the election so Labor could claim to be strong on defence.
I am betting the election will be called after Australia day, maybe early Feb next year.

You can bet on that, but I wouldn't be going too hard with the bookies just yet. The budget has been brought forward to March 25 to allow the government to drop it and run to an election. That's been the plan for quite some months. While Phillip Coorey speculated in the AFR last fortnight that the looming "deficits as far as the eye can see" might cause Labor to go early, he also notes WA has an election on March 8. Albo could call the election after then and hold it in April, with the budget then being delayed. That's more likely than a February election, I would suggest. Then again, deficits don't concern the average punter as much as many commentators think. And Labor may feel it needs the election sweeteners that the budget is sure to include to give it the best chance. I'd say Labor hasn't actually decided itself at this point.

 

[old faithful]

Like most elections, people have largely decided already who they will vote for in the next one. Once people's minds are made up, they are unlikely to change it. Polls mean very little.
It will be interesting which ever way it goes, and I really can't see the ADF changing too much either way.