US congress asked to consider alternative AUKUS plan…here we go again?
The US congress has been handed an alternative
AUKUS planwhereby it would not sell nuclear-powered submarines to Canberra and instead build up to eight new Virginia-class boats that could be retained in US Navy service and operated out of Australia.
The eight extra
Virginia-class submarinescould be used for both US and Australian missions while freeing up funds for Canberra to invest in other capabilities such as long-range anti-ship missiles, drones, loitering munitions, B-21 long-range bombers, or other strike aircraft.
The idea is canvassed by Ronald O’Rourke, a highly regarded specialist who has worked as a naval analyst for the Congressional Research Service of the Library of Congress since 1984, who labels the alternative model a US/Australian “
military division of labour”.
It has won the backing of one of Australia’s leading strategic experts, Michael Shoebridge, who said Mr O’Rourke sought to present a “better plan that achieves the deterrence outcomes of AUKUS but does so in a faster and more cost-effective way”.
The alternative force Ronald O’Rourke sketches out with the B-21 bombers and new generation weapons and autonomous systems
would be a more sovereign force than the current plan.”
By contrast, former home affairs secretary and leading strategic thinker Mike Pezzullo rejected Mr O’Rourke’s “model of keeping all of the SSNs for the US navy” and proposed a major lift in defence spending to boost submarine production rates.
The alternative AUKUS proposal from Mr O’Rourke, contained in an updated October 10 paper for members and committees of congress, would appear to clash with longstanding assurances from successive Australian governments that submarines provided by the US would remain under the sovereign control of the government of Australia.
Under the alternative model, Mr O’Rourke says that “up to eight additional Virginia-class SSNs would be built, and instead of three to five of them being sold to Australia, these additional boats would instead be retained in US Navy service and operated out of Australia along with the five US and UK SSNs that are already planned to be operated out of Australia under Pillar 1 as SRF-West (Submarine Rotational Force-West)”.
Mr O’Rourke links the case for the alternative model to concerns over whether the US industrial base can meet the target of producing 2.33 Virginia-class submarines per year – the rate needed to replace the boats sold to Australia.
The US Navy’s goal, set out in June 2023, called for maintaining a fleet of 66 SSNs (nuclear-powered attack submarines), but Mr O’Rourke notes there were only 48 in service in 2023.
He says the number of SSNs is projected to experience a “valley or trough from the mid-2020s through the early 2030s”.
Under the US Navy’s 30-year shipbuilding plan, the SSN force is forecast to decline to 47 boats in 2030, marking the bottom of the “valley”. It would then increase to 50 boats by 2032 and up to 66 boats by 2054.
Mr O’Rourke says these projected force levels do not account for the impact of selling three to five Virginia-class boats to Australia under AUKUS.
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A leading US naval analyst has proposed to the US congress an AUKUS ‘alternative’ whereby the Americans would operate eight nuclear subs from Australia, but retain full control over them.
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Research prepared for the United States Congress argues Australia could abandon its $368 billion AUKUS push to buy nuclear-powered submarines.
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