General Aviation Thread

[John Fedup]

I would add one additional obstacle wrt Comac’s ambitions, the deteriorating geopolitical situation. A world at war isn’t a very good market.

 

[Ananda]

They picked the most proven engines and materials meaning they are heavier and less efficient than AB, Boeing or Embraer equivalent.

Agree on that, and if I can add, seems the materials combination they are choosing also not the most cutting edge. I remember reading somewhere on materials assesment of C919 compare to Russian MC-21, and shown MC-21 using more composites then C919. Before Western sanctions some Aero market analyst even see MC-21 can be better Airliner then C919.

A Boeing or an Airbus aircraft can land just about anywhere on earth save Russia, the DPRK or Iran maybe Cuba and be assured that someone will be able to get parts and maintenance.

I can say even in Russia this days there are still 'grey' network that work to maintain Boeing and Airbus fleet. Thus agree that's what make any contender on Airliners market face uphill battle against Duopoly and even Embrear. For that I agree with SCMP article COMAC are going to focus first on export region near China like SEA. Clearly to build maintenance networks first close to home.

After that, potentially they are going to rest of Asia and perhaps Africa. Geopolitics seems going to make them focus with Global South market.

said to be in prototype and its size and class is among the most popular widebodys. However it’s iffy that the Developing World market can afford such a class and Comac still seems committed to using UAC for some of its supply chain which seems iffy.

Potential Global South users for C929 class of wide body in my opinion is already increasing. For that even Airbus and Boeing see that, and seems betting on that market to take much of this class. This is not counting on China own domestic.

However I agree on C939, it is too much ambition for COMAC to make margin on this class. Personally within this two decades, I believe they should stay with regional jets and stretching at most with C929 class. This also much depends on their success with C919.

In such COMAC seems now try to play as alternatives to fill the potential increase in Airliners market in Asia and potentially some in Africa. Most Global South market that try to find alternatives from Duopoly. Embrear already try to enter this market from their America and Euro market. Even that they are picking out market that their maintenance networks can cover.

This is what for me going to be interesting to see. Chinese supply chains mostly already going Globally flooding markets with lower prices alternatives. Could they do that on Aerospace and Airliners market ? If they are still depends with current supply chains that favor Duopoly, then I'm quite certain they can't replicate Chinese success on other sectors, that much depends on China own supply chains.

However if in the process China (and perhaps with Russia) can provide alternatives supply chains in Aerospace and Airliners market, then they have chances to do that. Seems this's what make Airbus and Boeing not counting COMAC will be their competitors yet Globally. However in China domestic or near China market, there's potential for COMAC to provide alternatives toward Duopoly.

All much depends on COMAC and China it self build their own alternatives supply chain. Personally I only see this if China and Russia combine forces together.

would add one additional obstacle wrt Comac’s ambitions, the deteriorating geopolitical situation. A world at war isn’t a very good market.

Deteriorating Geopolitics on other hand can push Russia and China closing in, and push their own ego to work together. That can create alternatives supply chains in Aerospace business. So it can work both ways.

 

[Ananda]

Brazil plane crash: No survivors after São Paulo state crash kills 62

A passenger aircraft travelling on a domestic route comes down in the town of Vinhedo.

www.bbc.com

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ATR 72 crash in Brazil, with 62 (or 61 from BBC source) people on board. Looking on the video of that crash, it is quite terrifying. The plane really just fall straight down. Something in flight control really mess up, that even make the plane unable to be controlled to glide down.

Add:

x.com

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Flight Radar X account talk about severe incing warning in that area. If that's the situation that bring this crash, it is reminder of ATR 42 crash with American Eagle about 30 years ago. Off course it is too early too tell, however Icing can make a plane fall down uncontrollable like that.

 

[Rob c]

Something in flight control really mess up, that even make the plane unable to be controlled to glide down.

Looking at the video it appears that the aircraft has stalled and entered a spin, n that would be unrecoverable at low speed. Icing can significantly raise the stall speed of an aircraft. Possibly the approach sped was too low for the conditions.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Boeing has put the testprogram of the 777X on hold, after cracks were found in an engine mount of a 777-9.

The new 777 generation was announced in 2013, and the plan was to let the 777X be operational un 2020, but the program is haunted by technical problems for many years.

Problemen voor nieuwe Boeing 777-9: haarscheurtjes leggen testprogramma stil

Boeing houdt de 777-9 voorlopig aan de grond, nadat er bij één van de testvliegtuigen scheurtjes zijn ontdekt in een onderdeel van de motorophanging. Dat bevestigt de vliegtuigbouwer. De ontdekking vormt een nieuwe tegenslag in de al jaren vertraagde ontwikkeling van het type.

www.luchtvaartnieuws.nl

Boeing staakt testvluchten met geplaagd nieuw toestel 777X

Tijdens een vlucht van Australië naar Nieuw-Zeeland in maart daalde het toestel in korte tijd zo'n 120 meter. Tientallen passagiers raakten gewond.

nos.nl

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

That was an epic punch....

At least the "upset passenger" is banned for an unknown period

 

[John Fedup]

That was an epic punch....

At least the "upset passenger" is banned for an unknown period

No excuse for this fool but surprised it doesn’t happen more often considering the appalling service from airlines (at least in Canada). Late and overbooked flights, strikes, and cancellations. Checked baggage service is so bad all passengers want to use carry-on and planes simply don’t have the space…a real anger flash-point.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

|"An enraged traveler was caught on camera destroying an American Airlines counter in Chile with a hammer just moments after realizing that a scammer had apparently sold him a fake plane ticket.

The Haitian man flew into the violent rage at Santiago’s Nuevo Pudahuel Airport late Monday after trying to check in for his American Airlines flight to Miami, Florida, local outlet Cooperativa reported. Footage shot by bystanders showed the construction worker, who was set to stop over in Miami en route to Haiti, suddenly rifling through his work bag after an airline employee informed him he wouldn’t be able to board the flight."|

So with other words, because he bought fake tickets, he decided to punish/take revenge on the airline and airport for his own mistake...

 

[John Fedup]

The video mentions the fake ticket was for a return trip to Haiti with a stop in Miami FL. If you have exited the hell- hole of the Caribbean, why would you ever want to go back! I doubt he planned to board the Miami Haiti leg of his return trip.

 

[Ananda]

2X Weekly Moscow-Bali-Moscow by AEROFLOT | Bali Discovery

The Russians are Coming to Bali! AEROFLOT Twice Weekly Moscow-Bali-Moscow

www.balidiscovery.com

Aeroflot will soon open twice weekly route direct from Moscow to Denpasar Bali. The route will be serve by Aeroflot A350-900. Seems this A350 is part of Aircraft that Aeroflot has been settled with Leasing companies throughout last year and early this year. Practically the ownership of the planes now move to Russian Lessor (set up by Russian own funds). This make the planes can land outside Russia, without commercial dispute behind it, in which can risk confiscating action from previous Western base leasing companies. Well at least to International destinations that not close to Russian Airlines.

Aeroflot is seeking an insurance settlement for its entire foreign fleet; depends on money - CEO

interfax.com

Despite the talk on domestication of Russian airlines fleet, the most optimistic scenario is to get narrow bodies 737 and A320 families being replace by Tu214, MC/MS21 and Sukhoi Superjet by end of this decade. This means for long range even the IL-400M scenario is doubtful can provide long range wide bodies alternatives to 777-300ER and A330-900 that Russian airlines has now. Seems Russian Airlines will have to find ways to keep those 777 and A350 working. So far despite the sanctions, the 'grey' market seems still provide sources on that, quite dependable.

 

[Ananda]

This video shown latest progress on MC-21 or MS-21 (in Latin alphabet). Forward to 14:55 as the video maker shown his visit to the facility that preparing Full Russian version of MC-21 310. This is different then MC-21 300 that being prepared before the Ukraine crisis. That version now consider no go, as high dependency toward Western Parts and Equipment.

Video makers have bias toward Russian Aerospace Industry. However also acknowledge big hurdle on MC-21 310. Still his video shown Russian Industry progress toward replacing all Western parts for MC-21.

I also think, his video shown too much leverage toward MC-21 and PD-14 as Russian answer in replacing all Western originate aircraft in Russian Airlines. In my opinion he also need to calculate Tu-214 progress and PS-90A production to supplement MC-21 and PD-14.

Yes PS-90A still less efficient then PD-14 which also still less efficient then US counterpart. It is better for Russian airlines in this decade to focus on replacing all Boeing and Airbus narrow bodies. Thus help them to focus more on how to maintain their 777, A330 and A350. As challange to replace them with Russian alternatives (IL-400M), are much more challenging.

 

[Ananda]

This IL-114 eventough will not attract attention as much as MC-21, but nonetheless also very important for Russian Civil aviation. It is in the end proper replacement for AN-24/26. If all their program run smoothly, Russia can have Regional Turboprop, Regional Jet with Sukhoi SSJ-100, and Medium Range MC-21 plus TU-214.

Depending on how well they can rebuild their domestic industrial supply chain, those line up can also be attractive to some export market in Global South. Iran, Algeria, Venezuela or some others in Africa and Central Africa can come in mind.

 

[Ananda]

All passengers, crew safe after plane incident in Indonesia's Papua

All passengers and crew of the Trigana Air ATR 42-500 aircraft (registration PK-YSP), which skidded off the runway at Stevanus Rumbewas Airport in Yapen ...

en.antaranews.com

x.com

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Indonesian Trigana Air ATR 42 skidding off the runway in Serui, Yapen Island West Papua. Trigana Air is one of regional airlines that mostly work in Eastern Indonesia specially West Papua and Mollocas. So Far no fatalities but several injuries within 42 passenger and 6 crews.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

This IL-114 eventough will not attract attention as much as MC-21, but nonetheless also very important for Russian Civil aviation. It is in the end proper replacement for AN-24/26. If all their program run smoothly, Russia can have Regional Turboprop, Regional Jet with Sukhoi SSJ-100, and Medium Range MC-21 plus TU-214.

Depending on how well they can rebuild their domestic industrial supply chain, those line up can also be attractive to some export market in Global South. Iran, Algeria, Venezuela or some others in Africa and Central Africa can come in mind.

The Il-114 was created to replace the An-24 and An-26, but as early as 2005 companies like Ilyushin, Agat and Radar-MMS tried to develop and promote an MPA-version of the Il-114 to replace the aging Il-20M/Il-38N MPA fleet.

The maximum range of the Il-114-300 is of course less than the Il-18/20/38, but an endurance of up to 7 hours should be enough. Besides that many Il-20M/-38N aircrafts are older than 50 years and need to be replaced soon.

 

[Ananda]

Russian S7 Airlines which from my understanding is the 2nd largest Russian Airlines sign MoI to procure 100 Tu-214. Despite all the talks and Hype of MC-21, that plane will need more time for replacing all the imports components.

From my understanding Russian Airlines complaints toward Tu-214 and IL-96-400M is mostly fall in to two thing:
1. Need for Two crew Cockpit instead standard Soviet era Three crew,
2. Reducing the weights to off set poorer fuel consumption from PS-90.

If Russian manufacturers able to achieve that, seems Russian Airlines even export (from certain countries in Global South) will take Tu-214 even IL-96-400M more willingly. They don't have much choices, as whatever the outcome of the war, Russia will strive to replace all the Airbus and Boeing eventually.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Russian S7 Airlines which from my understanding is the 2nd largest Russian Airlines sign MoI to procure 100 Tu-214. Despite all the talks and Hype of MC-21, that plane will need more time for replacing all the imports components.

From my understanding Russian Airlines complaints toward Tu-214 and IL-96-400M is mostly fall in to two thing:
1. Need for Two crew Cockpit instead standard Soviet era Three crew,
2. Reducing the weights to off set poorer fuel consumption from PS-90.

If Russian manufacturers able to achieve that, seems Russian Airlines even export (from certain countries in Global South) will take Tu-214 even IL-96-400M more willingly. They don't have much choices, as whatever the outcome of the war, Russia will strive to replace all the Airbus and Boeing eventually.

Many Tu-204/-214 aircrafts are stored somewhere in Russia, it will be a faster and better solution to refurbish/overhaul these stored aircraft and make them airworthy again, instead of suddenly building 100 aircrafts.

Tu-204/-214 has a history of slow production. A decade ago Red Wings planned to procure 44 Tu-204SM aircrafts, but because of delays to the flight-test programme, the order was cancelled.
So i am not yet convinced that Russia can build 100 Tu-204s in the next 10 years.






During an SAS-flight from Oslo to Malaga, a mouse was found in a meal of a passenger. Because it managed to escape, the aircraft was diverted to Kopenhagen. In Kopenhagen, the heavily traumatized passengers continued their flight to Malaga with another aircraft.

SAS-vliegtuig wijkt uit vanwege levende muis in maaltijd

Een SAS-vlucht van Oslo naar Malaga is woensdag uitgeweken naar Kopenhagen nadat er een levende muis in de maaltijd van een passagier bleek te zitten. Omdat het diertje wist te ontsnappen, was het een (beperkt) veiligheidsrisico: het kan bedrading kapotknagen.

www.luchtvaartnieuws.nl

Levende muis in maaltijd van passagier dwingt vliegtuig tot voorzorgslanding

Een toestel van de Scandinavische luchtvaartmaatschappij SAS heeft deze week een voorzorgslanding gemaakt in Kopenhagen. Dit gebeurde nadat er een levende muis uit een vliegtuigmaaltijd was gekropen. Het knaagdier zou een risico vormen voor de bedrading van het toestel.

www.nu.nl

 

[Ananda]

Tu-204/-214 has a history of slow production. A decade ago Red Wings planned to procure 44 Tu-204SM aircrafts, but because of delays to the flight-test programme, the order was cancelled.
So i am not yet convinced that Russia can build 100 Tu-204s in the next 10 years.

Their slow production rate mostly due to:

1. Lack of Investment for Civilian Aviation,
2. That makes their product uncompetitive in the market, including with domestic airlines.

Now they don't have choices due to embargoes, but also Russia already learn how neglecting civilian aviation industry is also strategically costly. For sometime they only care with their Military Aviation, thus that's where the Investment goes. This war give Russia the lesson that both Aviation sector industries need to be developed equally.

Even China from what I heard also thinking on developing C919 and C929 with two version. Version with Western components and version with non Western components. The second one will be using their own industrial supply chain, plus Russian ones.

Tu-214 and IL-96-400M for what it's worth, are already using Russian components with Russian supply chains. While MC-21 and SSJ-100 seems still need to time to adjust Domestic and non Western components (talk from China or even India) work as substitute.

They talk about further investment to increase production rate and rectified some shortcomings that Airlines wants. So I do see they're on right traction to rejuvenating their civilian Aviation industry and supply chains. Simply because they don't have luxury to wait otherwise.

Add:

This is Tu-214M that seems being build to meet Russian Airlines demand. The video talk about closing in toward 787 or A350, which is a too far gap to close. Perhaps toward A321 is more appropriate. If they can create two crew Cockpit, reduce the weight which then increase the range from current 6500km to 7500km, it is already good enough.

More importantly it is practically using existing Russian Supply Chain, and they even can tap some exports toward those in Global South that are currently also under western sanctions or don't want to pay Western Price.

 

[Ananda]

Brazilian Airline May Be 1st Outside Of Asia To Buy China's COMAC C919 Planes

Apart from China's airlines, only the Brunei-based carrier GallopAir has ordered the COMAC C919.

simpleflying.com

This is seems the export strategy from China to enter civilian airliners export market. They basically approach smaller players and build their capabilities with Chinese Planes. They have done it in Indonesia and Brunai, and now seems they're going to do that in Brazil.

It is in my opinion more expensive strategy, but effective to begin their presence in that particular market. They are basically already prepared their presence in SEA market, and now try to begin the presence in South America market. Like in Indonesia and Brunai, they are also preparing MRO chain with local MRO's to support their products.

 

[Ananda]

Video on PD-14 progress. After the war, Russia has no choice to progressing with this engine as PS-90A replacement. Even the war concluded with Russia in relatively preferable term, it will not change much Geopolitics and Commercial situation with Western World.

So this engine will be use mostly within Russia and Non Western world. The last one will be big challenge, as even progressing Russia Aviation Industry will face big challenge to enlarge their Industrial Supply Chain capabilities outside their immediate border. For that in my opinion they need China.

Russia and China should swallow each pride and create cooperation, just like CFM between GE and SNECMA. However even with present Geopolitics trend that should make them clossing in together, teaming up on Commercial Aviation project seems challenging. Situation with CR929 that now become only C929 project shown that.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Yesterday on 2 October 2024, a bomb that was dropped by US armed forces during World War II exploded under a taxiway of Miyazaki Airport, damaging the surface and disrupting operations at the airport. Miyazaki Airport is an international airport in south-west Japan.
Remarkable that this happen after all those years, suddenly, and not during the construction of that taxiway.
Sudden WWII bomb blast forces airport shutdown in Japan - YouTube

Runway closed at Japan airport after WWII bomb explodes on taxiway (kyodonews.net)