Nein, thanks: Germany snubs F-35, new fighter choice still up in air

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
"
I have read the the I D.F have turned off their ALIS so as to not share information on their operations even with the U,S
At present there are S400 systems situated in Kalingrad with the ability to track into Eastern Germany ,the F35 is the only aircraft at present able to if required to defeat this system
I have to take issue with this part here. Defeating a theater SAM like the S-400 isn't done with a single-platform solution but by a combined approach of ELINT/SIGINT, stand-off and on-board EW, and stand-off munitions. Germany can combine a variety of options to destroy a single S-400 regiment. I think what you're getting at is that having an F-35 makes it much easier to deal with the kind of IADS that Russia is building in places like Kaliningrad (S-400 regiments, with Pantsyr SHORAD, their own ELINT/SIGINT assets, and EW). And this is perfectly true and, to me, a great argument in favor of the F-35. But it's important not to get bogged down over things like "platform X" and instead look at the systemic problem as a whole.
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
A few notes on the actual topic.

The Tornado successor decision in Germany is a political item. The two frames - Eurofighter and F-18 - preselected so far do have definitive qualities in themselves that make them favourable for those groups that push them. And in that they vastly outmaneuver the two frames not chosen - F-15 and F-35. The CDU-led MoD pushes the F-18, the mostly-SPD-supported Parliamentary Defense Committee pushes the Eurofighter.

Points that do work in favour of the two are:

a) Militarily: Germany has committed a future Airborne Electronic Warfare capability to NATO with a defined target date. While all four airframes can be converted to support that, this would take development time and investment; the F-18 provides a off-the-shelf solution to this in the E/A-18G Growler which could be introduced relatively rapidly.

b) Politically: NATO nuclear sharing is somewhat in doubt with the SPD at the moment, in particular more recently due to the row over INF (it's a long term issue currently amplified). Eurofighter presents an opportunity to separate the NATO nuclear sharing question from the airframe succession question by procuring an aircraft and then postponing a decision on certifying the frame to carry US nuclear weapons. Due to the higher hurdles with Eurofighter this is a preferred solution to this conundrum for the SPD.

c) Industrially: From an industry politics viewpoint, the government wishes for a "temporary solution". While this is reminiscent of former "temporary solutions" that way outlasted their stay - like the F-4F - this is relevant in the decision. It means that a fifth-gen airframe that could possibly last in the Luftwaffe for thirty to forty years is not what this procurement is intended to produce. This is further amplified by the stated timescale of cooperation with France.

d) Also industrially: Eurofighter is produced locally. Yes, that is a point, in particular for the SPD. Employment and all that. However, Eurofighter is also produced by Airbus. That is a point against Eurofighter given the row between the government and Airbus in the last 2-3 years. Given the Eurofighter T1 replacement being handed out, it is very possible that this is all Airbus will get.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
So . . . Germany's promised to replace the capaility of the Tornado ECR. That's interesting. I wonder about Italy & its Tornado ECRs.
 

MarcH

Member
ECR is just able to precisely locate emitters and engage them. Jamming is limited to self protection. (just what every jet with a modern self protection suite like spectra or AN/ASQ-239 can do).
The Growler offers a lot more than the ECR's capabilities. Which would be very valuable to have for our legacy fleet.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
ECR is just able to precisely locate emitters and engage them. Jamming is limited to self protection. (just what every jet with a modern self protection suite like spectra or AN/ASQ-239 can do).
The Growler offers a lot more than the ECR's capabilities. Which would be very valuable to have for our legacy fleet.
And very difficult and costly to develop from scratch for a Eurofighter variant. Though the cost and technological difficulty could be somewhat mitigated if more then one Eurofighter customer opts for this EuroGrowler. Personally I have my doubts about the willingness of Germany, and other customers, to eat these high development costs. And of course it's going to take much longer.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
One thing that kind of surprises me is that Germany isn't considering the Rafale, as it possibly has the edge over the Eurofighter in terms of ground attack capability.

Germany is also looking towards France as a partner for its next generation of fighter so purchasing the Rafale could be an opportunity for both countries to work together on this project first. Let's face it ... the French don't have a good history of co-operating on these sorts of projects so it is probably best to see if this partnership works before embarking on a new generation fighter.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Question, if Germany decides on new Typhoons and second jets, and the requirement for nukes is to be continued, could a Growler also perform this mission or would SHs also be required. From a cost perspective it would be nice if the Growler could do both missions, carry nukes and perform ECM/EA. I believe a few F-35s will eventually be able to do this with the NGJ.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
One thing that kind of surprises me is that Germany isn't considering the Rafale, as it possibly has the edge over the Eurofighter in terms of ground attack capability.

Germany is also looking towards France as a partner for its next generation of fighter so purchasing the Rafale could be an opportunity for both countries to work together on this project first. Let's face it ... the French don't have a good history of co-operating on these sorts of projects so it is probably best to see if this partnership works before embarking on a new generation fighter.
Not a bad idea. Given France’s huge win on the Australian sub deal, it could be a way for Germany to contribute on that project. Should Canada renew its sub capability, it would narrow the field to two potential vendors, Japan and a Euro-OZ team. Could be interesting for both projects.
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
One thing that kind of surprises me is that Germany isn't considering the Rafale, as it possibly has the edge over the Eurofighter in terms of ground attack capability.
The nuclear option of the Tornados can not be fulfilled with Rafales without completely realigning strategic concepts. If a switch over to a German-French nuclear weapons cooperation was viable the Rafale F4 would likely have been the chosen airframe given its current place in the pipeline with Dassault and planned introduction.

Question, if Germany decides on new Typhoons and second jets, and the requirement for nukes is to be continued, could a Growler also perform this mission or would SHs also be required.
Any chosen air frame will have to go through the full certification for current mods of B61 anyway. The two wings concerned (TaktLwG 33 and 51) currently operate all four extant German variants of Tornado plus Heron TP, so it's not like operating two variants of Super Hornets would be any more complicated.

believe a few F-35s will eventually be able to do this with the NGJ.
Conceptually the US will run E/A-18G as support systems (escort jamming with NGJ) for F-35 insertion. This kind of coop could be identically run with e.g. German Growlers and Dutch F-35 given the close cooperation of the two.
 

MarcH

Member
One thing that kind of surprises me is that Germany isn't considering the Rafale, as it possibly has the edge over the Eurofighter in terms of ground attack capability.

Germany is also looking towards France as a partner for its next generation of fighter so purchasing the Rafale could be an opportunity for both countries to work together on this project first. Let's face it ... the French don't have a good history of co-operating on these sorts of projects so it is probably best to see if this partnership works before embarking on a new generation fighter.
This was my first thought, too. But the issue here is different. It's not just getting a good strike fighter as Tornado replacement. As long as Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands participate in nuclear sharing we would have a problem. The B61's are tactical nukes, they are designed to whipe out massive troop concentrations. Which means they are not dropped deep in the east.
Withdrawing from nuclear sharing would just mean two neighboring nations equipped for tactical nuking without any option to influence the when and where.

The Super Hornet is now the ideal competitor. The Growler option for all it's benefits and then the current lack of B61-12 integration. May help getting a better deal for B61 integration if the final choice is a pure Typhoon fleet.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
Perhaps the Advanced super Hornet block 3 ,being a stealthier development and having the extra fuel tanks with a longer range could be considered also having the built in E.W package meets requirements
 
In March 2022 the Luftwaffe decided to buy 35 F-35As as replacement for Germany's Tornado fighter-bombers, three years after the German Defense Ministry gave a thumbs down to the F-35 as a successor to the Tornado, and it is also considering buying 10 additional F-35s. Germany could have been better off developing an VTOL strike aircraft derived from the British Aerospace P.1214 VTOL fighter project in partnership with the UK in the 1990s because it had experience with developing VTOL combat jets in the 1960s and 1970s with testing of the VJ 101 and VAK 191.

 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Germany could have been better off developing an VTOL strike aircraft
For what reason and what purpose?

The sole reason to buy F-35A was to buy a replacement nuclear delivery system qualified for the bomb versions provided to Germany by the USA under NATO Nuclear Sharing.
 
For what reason and what purpose?

The sole reason to buy F-35A was to buy a replacement nuclear delivery system qualified for the bomb versions provided to Germany by the USA under NATO Nuclear Sharing.
The Panavia Tornado is designed for strike missions (though the ADV variant of it was designed as an interceptor). The F-35A is a multirole fighter like the F-16, but the Tornado also carries B61 tactical nukes and the F-35 isn't a dedicated attack aircraft. What I was saying is that Germany would have availed itself of ordering a US-built nuclear delivery system to replace the Tornado by working with the UK in the 1990s on developing a new-generation VTOL strike aircraft (combining elements of the VAK 191B and unbuilt British Aerospace P.1214) for carrying conventional and B61 nuclear bombs. After all, the Airbus A400M, Dassault Rafale, and Eurofighter Typhoon have shown that mainland Europe since the late Cold War doesn't necessarily have to depend on the US aerospace industry for its air combat and air mobility needs.
 
Last edited:

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
The Panavia Tornado is designed for strike missions (though the ADV variant of it was designed as an interceptor). The F-35A is a multirole fighter like the F-16, but the Tornado also carries B61 tactical nukes and the F-35 isn't a dedicated attack aircraft. What I was saying is that Germany would have availed itself of ordering a US-built nuclear delivery system to replace the Tornado by working with the UK in the 1990s on developing a new-generation VTOL strike aircraft (combining elements of the VAK 191B and unbuilt British Aerospace P.1214) for carrying conventional and B61 nuclear bombs. After all, the Airbus A400M, Dassault Rafale, and Eurofighter Typhoon have shown that mainland Europe since the late Cold War doesn't necessarily have to depend on the US aerospace industry for its air combat and air mobility needs.
Yes, Europe has a aerospace industry, however one should perhaps re-examine what one is suggesting.

Firstly, does (or did) Germany have a capability requirement for a VTOL strike jet back in the 1990's? If not, then did Germany have an aircraft requirement where a VTOL capability would be advantageous? Having only taken a cursory look it would seem that the answer was either a "no," or a "yes, but not worth enough to fund."

There are also a number of other factors which IMO would make the suggestion above rather fanciful. In the 1990's the Cold War was effectively over, so some of the funding which had been directed towards defence programmes were now being redirected elsewhere. Further, Germany had just been reunited so there were all the costs and work associated with the reunification, as well as all the military kit that had been in service with the GDR (IIRC Germany might still have some stockpiles of ex-GDR ordnance).

Going beyond that, the Panavia Tornado was still in production during the 1990's, with production not ending until 1998. One effect of that design still having been in production at the time is that it would be years before the design would be due for replacement, and potentially a few decades before the end production models would need replacement. Absent a new or emerging capability need, there would not be a logical reason to join or form a multi-national consortium to develop a new type of combat jet.

Going further still, apart from Saab and Dassault, the modern advanced combat jets produced in Europe over the last few decades have been the work of multi-national consortiums. This at least in part because the costs involved in developing new advanced combat aircraft are quite high, whilst the numbers required by different Euro states are too low for many of the Euro nations to individually be able to sustain full domestic R&D and production capabilities. Going further with that, the consortium programme which led to the Eurofighter Typhoon (and the Dassault Rafale BTW) was started back in the 1980's, with what became the Typhoon achieving first flight in 1994, did not enter service until 2003. Had Germany recognized early on that a suitable nuclear strike replacement for the Tornado would be needed in the 2020's, then perhaps a nuclear strike capability could have been designed into the Typhoon back in the 90's, before it began production.

It takes time, money and resources to develop and then build advanced military hardware like combat jets, with bespoke or unusual capability requires adding to the difficulty and cost in development. Sometimes the want or need prove to be less than what the expected developmental costs will be, and therefore existing programmes get cancelled or never end begin. Other times, particularly following changes in strategic outlook, a programme might get cancelled or cut back because what is being developed is no longer relevant or appropriate for existing or emergent threats. A very good example of this would be the US B-2 Spirit, with only 21 aircraft built out of the originally planned 165.

As a side note, it might be a good idea to look at the time, cost, and trouble encountered with developing new military aircraft generally, and the expereinces of Euro aerospace consortiums specifically.
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Further, Germany had just been reunited so there were all the costs and work associated with the reunification, as well as all the military kit that had been in service with the GDR (IIRC Germany might still have some stockpiles of ex-GDR ordnance).
Any VTOL or other CAS aircraft as described by him at that point in time would at best have been a successor for Alpha Jet, which until 1993 was in service with three light fighter-bomber wings in the Luftwaffe. Of course the whole question at that point in time was moot, as those Alpha Jets were not retired for age or obsolesence, but instead because the Luftwaffe had to bring down its aircraft numbers significantly to get below CFE treaty limits becoming active in 1994.

The closest match in the RAF at the time would have been Harriers (that's why the VTOL is in his idea), but at exactly that time those had just been upgraded to Harrier IIs between 1990 and 1991. A replacement at the time in the RAF may have been viable for Jaguar notionally, and that's why he probably picked the Tornado there as a relative close operational match.

Had Germany recognized early on that a suitable nuclear strike replacement for the Tornado would be needed in the 2020's, then perhaps a nuclear strike capability could have been designed into the Typhoon back in the 90's, before it began production.
There's nothing really preventing a Eurofighter from being used for nuclear delivery design-wise provided the necessary (PAL) systems would be integrated and the aircraft certified for it. This was considered since 2019, however there were sufficient reasons to not go that route.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
There's nothing really preventing a Eurofighter from being used for nuclear delivery design-wise provided the necessary (PAL) systems would be integrated and the aircraft certified for it. This was considered since 2019, however there were sufficient reasons to not go that route.
Agreed. The fact that Luftwaffe Typhoons were not modified for the nuclear delivery role does suggest a couple of things to me though. I tend to suspect that it was at least one factor from several potential factors which led to the F-35 acquisition. None of the factors I have in mind would be able to be addressed by Germany developing a new/another combat jet with the UK in the 1990's without a massive R&D spend, and even then...
 
Top