Hamas-Israeli War 2023

[Big_Zucchini]

Israeli military and others indicted for war crimes by International Court. Several Israeli leaders are identified, as is Hamas (CNN) Accusations are denied by Israel but Israel declines to officially defend against those charges. While we have seen Israeli’s position, we’ve also seen and heard their actual behavior in videos, etc. it’s time to put up or shut up on these issues. Without a formal defense, without real discovery we are left with nothing. Interestingly let’s see if Netanyahu goes to a country that will extradite him.

Seems I have misinterpreted the ICJ order in an earlier post. I thought they said clearly to halt the operation in Rafah but apparently the order was ambiguous and up for interpretation. Media which typically hires legal experts mostly says the order was to halt the operation. Some of the judges said it was a call similar to the first order, to simply refrain from committing certain actions.

In any case, as we've seen in the interview between Christiane Amanpour and ICC prosecutor Karim Khan, the issue at heart seems to be that Israel simply employs an enforcement method the ICC does not approve of.

As in any armed force, the IDF has its own investigative bodies, investigative procedures, and a sort of justice system. From a certain rank, a commander can court martial his own troops.
It is expected that cases of severe violations/crimes be transferred to the civilian justice system.
For example in 2016 an IDF soldier Elor Azaria killed an already neutralized terrorist, which otherwise according to standard procedure would have to be arrested and treated. His case was judged by the supreme court.

Israeli soldiers constantly post videos filmed in Gaza. For the IDF this is an OPSEC issue, which arguably it isn't doing enough to curb. But is that something the supreme court should even handle? I don't think so. It has to be an internal change in the IDF to enforce better discipline.

To call on the Israeli supreme court, in 2024, to intervene in such cases is a strategic mistake. First, it would undermine Israel's own democracy. The Israeli supreme court has been weakened throughout 2023 and the general public protested against that all the way until October 7th. These protests led to Netanyahu losing a lot of power. From 64 seats in the current Knesset, to 43 in the polls. Through populist strategies Netanyahu managed to increase the average to 45, Biden's policies helped him climb to 48, and I'm sure if the supreme court was then busy prosecuting hundreds if not thousands of soldiers - i.e. the people, for posting stupid tiktok videos, I'm sure Netanyahu's popularity would spike again to at least 50-52.
And second, it simply ignores the reality that war is not politically correct. People say things out of anger, but their actions are different. You just can't expect people who put their lives at risk, spend so many months, even years under crushing stress - to remain politically correct. They're put involuntarily in an unjust reality.

On the subject of the ICJ, I assume some of it has to do with the newly appointed president Nawaf Salam. He is a former Lebanese politician and diplomat and it was clear he would take a harsh stance toward Israel. During his years as Lebanese Prime Minister, Lebanon was in flagrant violation of UNSC resolution 1701.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Hamas media claim they have taken an IDF soldier hostage.
The IDF denies these claims.
However, Hamas did post some amusing "evidence".

The video below may be graphic.
In the video we see a man being dragged inside a tunnel. The man does not appear to be a soldier. He is dressed in normal civilian clothes.
Hamas typically uses wars for executions, and they even published videos of themselves shooting at tied up civilians for fun. It is possible they simply executed a dissident and used his body for this video.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1794487360090194056

Hamas also published what they claim to be the soldier's personal gear. I swear this is almost 3 sim game copies tier. IDF soldiers do not use weapons of this type. I cannot identify the gun but that's not IDF. The gear may look Israeli but Hamas intentionally copies Israeli designs to increase chances of friendly fire.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1794489496123445600

Now, just in case, I'll leave some room for doubt. Hamas claim they'll issue a statement soon.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

I was not aware that the October 7th Nova festival documentary was out for the general public.
"Incredibly disturbing" doesn't even begin to describe it.
An hour long documentary.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1794433090749649128

 

[Big_Zucchini]

High casualty event in Rafah right now. Reports of dozens of casualties.

Not a whole lot is known about it but here are the things we do know as of right now:

1. Hamas fired long range rockets from Rafah into Tel Aviv and Herzliyah several hours ago.
2. There have been claims that the IDF attacked a rocket launcher, and that it was a Hamas rocket misfire landing in the area. The IDF denies both claims.
3. A fire broke out in an area in Rafah following a strike.
4. The casualties reportedly occurred due to a fire, not an explosion.
5. The fire has reportedly broke out as a secondary effect of the strike, and apparently spread to other areas, which is where the casualties reportedly occurred.
6. IDF issued a statement claiming very high ranking figures in Hamas - Yassin Rabia and Khaled Najjar, respectively the chief of staff of Hamas in J&S and another senior figure in the Hamas J&S HQ, were killed in a strike in Rafah. This is indicated to be the widely reported strike that caused the fire.
7. Such a serious fire is atypical for an ordinary assassination, which is typically very surgical.
8. IDF pre-strike assessments take into account environmental factors that could lead to secondary harmful effects, but it is near certain the fire was unexpected, let alone with such casualty figures.
9. According to international law, an armed force is expected to determine some non-zero level of civilian casualties for every strike of military importance. The war average for the IDF is evidently far below 1 per strike, as total casualties including from ground operations indicate 0.7 civilians per 1 terrorist. For high value targets and figures, the acceptable number grows significantly. However it is also evident that the number of casualties reported in this fire is far in excess of any ratio the IDF has ever accepted, including for higher ranking figures, pointing to the unexpected nature of the fire.

IDF comment on the event:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1794838430473421042

Posted for the footage. Or Fialkov is occasionally correct but I wouldn't consider him credible.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1794824595012198719

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1794849136996397326

 

[Ananda]

Deadly strike on Rafah a tragic mishap, Netanyahu says

Scores were killed in the camp for displaced Palestinians which Israel says targeted "senior Hamas terrorists".

www.bbc.com

Netanyahu acknowledge there's mistake on the latest attack in Rafah. This is basically acknowledge that the attack result more on civilian casualties then Hamas ones. I guess Netanyahu increasingly feel pressure from US and EU on Rafah.

Will that then change in Israel internal dynamics? Personally I'm sceptical unless US raise more pressures. EU pressures will not be enough, while the rest of the world pressures not matter much for Israel.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-attack-rafah-tent-camp-draws-global-condemnation-2024-05-27/

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Netanyahu acknowledge there's mistake on the latest attack in Rafah. This is basically acknowledge that the attack result more on civilian casualties then Hamas ones. I guess Netanyahu increasingly feel pressure from US and EU on Rafah.

Hardly related to Netanyahu. In fact it's not something that should even concern politicians except for relaying the apology message from the army. Purely army related event.
What we saw is likely a new Hamas tactic. It became apparent recently that the targets were inside vehicles, and the vehicles, based on witness accounts, contained munitions, perhaps to create such incidents. These then caused the fire to spread.
I'm hoping this convinces Gazans to not ignore evacuation orders, but also I am confident this will successfully deter the IDF, at least to some capacity, from assassinating senior figures.
I'm afraid about Hezbollah using similar tactics. They are also embedded among civilian population.

Will that then change in Israel internal dynamics? Personally I'm sceptical unless US raise more pressures. EU pressures will not be enough, while the rest of the world pressures not matter much for Israel.

On the superficial level it may seem like more public pressure on Netanyahu = more net pressure on him, but that demonstrates a gross misunderstanding of internal Israeli politics and political culture.
One of Netanyahu's dominant talking points is "us vs them", i.e. Israel vs the entire world. They're out to get us and all that. And it's not baseless. Israel IS facing biased international institutions since its very foundation, and even alliances that are more "we're friends until we need something".

Although it may seem odd, the ICC's decision to apply for arrest warrants has actually been incredibly helpful to Netanyahu, and combined with Biden's support, he's set to exceed 50-54 seats (of 120) in polls soon, in contrast to him dipping to 43 following October 7th.

It may also appear initially like Biden sought to pressure Netanyahu and bring about an election but that's also not the case. Netanyahu rose in popularity every time news came out of more pressure on Israel. And the reason is that Biden intentionally chose to pursue policies that hurt not Netanyahu specifically, but Israel as a whole, thus painting Netanyahu as Israel's protector.

Such condemnations by the way, are also perceived by Israelis as an attack on them personally, not Netanyahu. Because the army is conscription based, and what happens today in Gaza is what everyone at some point has done elsewhere. So they rightfully remember risking themselves to care for civilians in Lebanon or Gaza or J&S and then being branded as criminals by the international community, while Europeans and Americans just go to college after finishing high school and immediately start their grown life. So they appeal only to very small minorities in Israel.

 

[koxinga]

Hardly related to Netanyahu. In fact it's not something that should even concern politicians except for relaying the apology message from the army. Purely army related event.

Netanyahu is the elected leader of a nation, and the military executes a strategy approved by that leadership. Yes, tactical mistakes can and will happen, but accountability lies with his government. That is the fundamental relationship and division of responsibility/accountability between the govermment and military in any democracy. The military will still have to run their own investigation and someone wil get charged and probably sentenced. But the political leadership can't pretend that it has nothing to do with it.

Trying to reduce him to a mere spokesman or providing some perfunctory statement is somewhat disingenuous.

He is accountable. I laud him for being direct about this, in fact. The question is what's next.

What we saw is likely a new Hamas tactic. It became apparent recently that the targets were inside vehicles, and the vehicles, based on witness accounts, contained munitions, perhaps to create such incidents. These then caused the fire to spread.
I'm hoping this convinces Gazans to not ignore evacuation orders, but also I am confident this will successfully deter the IDF, at least to some capacity, from assassinating senior figures.
I'm afraid about Hezbollah using similar tactics. They are also embedded among civilian population.

I won't characterise it as a "new" tactic. They seek cover using civilians. It can be a hospital, it can be a ambulance, it can be a refugee camp. That is the reality and there is nothing new or surprising.

That's the nature of terrorism where there isn't a clear division between the civilian world and military world.

On the superficial level it may seem like more public pressure on Netanyahu = more net pressure on him, but that demonstrates a gross misunderstanding of internal Israeli politics and political culture.
One of Netanyahu's dominant talking points is "us vs them", i.e. Israel vs the entire world. They're out to get us and all that. And it's not baseless. Israel IS facing biased international institutions since its very foundation, and even alliances that are more "we're friends until we need something".

Although it may seem odd, the ICC's decision to apply for arrest warrants has actually been incredibly helpful to Netanyahu, and combined with Biden's support, he's set to exceed 50-54 seats (of 120) in polls soon, in contrast to him dipping to 43 following October 7th.

It may also appear initially like Biden sought to pressure Netanyahu and bring about an election but that's also not the case. Netanyahu rose in popularity every time news came out of more pressure on Israel. And the reason is that Biden intentionally chose to pursue policies that hurt not Netanyahu specifically, but Israel as a whole, thus painting Netanyahu as Israel's protector.

Such condemnations by the way, are also perceived by Israelis as an attack on them personally, not Netanyahu. Because the army is conscription based, and what happens today in Gaza is what everyone at some point has done elsewhere. So they rightfully remember risking themselves to care for civilians in Lebanon or Gaza or J&S and then being branded as criminals by the international community, while Europeans and Americans just go to college after finishing high school and immediately start their grown life. So they appeal only to very small minorities in Israel.

The "us versus them" statements are meant to shore up his own support, which ironically enough is a standard play from mostly populist/authoritarian leadership. (e.g Orhan in Hungary or Maduro in Venuzeula)

While there is indeed certain institutions that are biases, usually there is also an element of truth. The fact are civilians die and are dying. Hamas is holding the situation hostage, but the bombs dropping are IDF. The longer this plays out, incidents like this will occur.

None of these are a surprisingly really.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

He is accountable. I laud him for being direct about this, in fact. The question is what's next.

Really? Because he certainly refuses to claim responsibility over the failures of October 7th.

The divide between the political and military leadership is such that the micro-level policy is managed by the military, and politicians deal with the macro. Politicians can demand re-allocation of defense resources between various regions, or for strategic tasks, which by the way the mismanagement of them resulted in 7/10, but airstrikes is something they don't even touch, let alone targeting policies. They can demand to enforce stricter RoE here or more permissive RoE there, if they feel any area is politically sensitive. But this incident is entirely the responsibility of those who analyzed the parameters and details and approved the strike.

By the way, I don't believe there is necessarily guilt here. It is highly likely that it was simply missed intel and for that there is no punishment.

won't characterise it as a "new" tactic. They seek cover using civilians. It can be a hospital, it can be a ambulance, it can be a refugee camp. That is the reality and there is nothing new or surprising.

That's the nature of terrorism where there isn't a clear division between the civilian world and military world.

Well, yes. But up until now assassinations on vehicles was a very safe operation. Low yield munitions are used and usually they do all the damage. But here clearly there was something in those cars that caused this fire.

The "us versus them" statements are meant to shore up his own support, which ironically enough is a standard play from mostly populist/authoritarian leadership. (e.g Orhan in Hungary or Maduro in Venuzeula)

Leaders aren't oblivious to this. If they want to pressure another leader, there are ways to work around this. Populism has its weaknesses too. But it is evident that Biden and the ICC both made choices that seem to directly benefit Netanyahu.

 

[koxinga]

Really? Because he certainly refuses to claim responsibility over the failures of October 7th.

The divide between the political and military leadership is such that the micro-level policy is managed by the military, and politicians deal with the macro. Politicians can demand re-allocation of defense resources between various regions, or for strategic tasks, which by the way the mismanagement of them resulted in 7/10, but airstrikes is something they don't even touch, let alone targeting policies. They can demand to enforce stricter RoE here or more permissive RoE there, if they feel any area is politically sensitive. But this incident is entirely the responsibility of those who analyzed the parameters and details and approved the strike.

I speak of it in general. Responsibility and accountability are two related / shared concepts. IDF/military is responsible. Accountability remains the government. As for Bibi, Oct 7th is on him and he knows it.

By the way, I don't believe there is necessarily guilt here. It is highly likely that it was simply missed intel and for that there is no punishment.

This reminds me of the 2021 US strike on a suspected ISIS-K vehicle. In the immediate aftermath, they defended the attack robustly, claiming secondary explosions. Only to backtrack and acknowledge that it was a targeting failure. Haven't heard anyone prosecuted for it, although it is very likely there is some form of administrative punishment.

Newly Declassified Video Shows U.S. Killing of 10 Civilians in Drone Strike (Published 2022)

The New York Times obtained footage of the botched strike in Kabul, whose victims included seven children, through a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Big_Zucchini]

This reminds me of the 2021 US strike on a suspected ISIS-K vehicle. In the immediate aftermath, they defended the attack robustly, claiming secondary explosions. Only to backtrack and acknowledge that it was a targeting failure. Haven't heard anyone prosecuted for it, although it is very likely there is some form of administrative punishment.

Except in this case Israel did the opposite.
First it acknowledged reports, then apologized and announced an investigation, and then evidence started surfacing indicating this was a Hamas operation. This includes visual evidence provided by the IDF, and Gazan eye witness accounts claiming Hamas munitions were present in the area.

 

[Ananda]

Israel-Gaza war: Biden unveils Israeli proposal to end conflict

It would begin with a six-week ceasefire and the withdrawal of IDF forces from populated areas.

www.bbc.com

Remarks by President Biden on the Middle East | The White House

State Dining Room 1:28 P.M. EDT THE PRESIDENT: Hello, folks. (The President checks his watch.) Just checking it’s afternoon.

www.whitehouse.gov

US 'peace plan' for Hamas-Israel war in Gaza. Already unveil. UK also endorse it, and seems Hamas shown positively on the plan. However seems Netanyahu not. So let's see how US and UK can do about it.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

4 hostages rescued alive from central gaza:

IDF rescues 4 hostages alive in stunning operation in central Gaza

* * *

www.timesofisrael.com

EDIT:
Meni Fabian (defense reporter, I highly recommend following him) with the story on the operation along with some footage.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1799443199410184515

Reportedly, footage from the vicinity of the rescue operation:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1799449331944075649

EDIT 2:
Palestinian media now claim there are 250 dead children. Previously they reported 150, and before that 80.
There are also claims the US aid pier was used, as well as a truck that came from it as a means of transportation for IDF troops. Few also claim these were US forces proper.
I don't think this will lead to a meaningful change. The American pier in Gaza is mostly a threat to Egypt, not Hamas. If anything the Kerem Shalom crossing and the northern land corridor are much more dangerous for Hamas. US forces have also set up defenses when they first deployed the bridge, and are further guarded by the IDF. So I do not anticipate any step up in protection measures, or Hamas attempts to attack it, as a direct consequence of this operation.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

This is allegedly the aid truck used by YAMAM (Israeli SWAT). Interestingly, one of the Namers following it is a CEV variant carrying a CARPET rocket hive. These are very short range mine clearing thermobaric rockets.
The IDF has reportedly used such breaching equipment in Gaza for demolition, including older line charges.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1799550658460188799

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Al Jazeera journalist Abdullah Jamal reportedly held 3 hostages Shlomi Ziv, Andrey Kozlov, and Almog Meir in his home along with his family and around other civilians.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1799867049767850406

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Aside from utilizing a police force with dedicated hostage rescue training for the rescue mission in Nuseirat, Gaza, the IDF had also reportedly utilized Arab soldiers posing as displaced Gazans.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1799807376536785405

Bedouins vary greatly in their political affiliation. Some are about as pro-Palestine and antisemitic as it gets, while others proudly serve in the IDF. However their numbers are fairly low, especially in comparison to Druze who overwhelmingly choose to enlist in combat units and are generally highly patriotic. Therefore it is likely Druze.
Bedouins in contrast typically serve in tracker units, which makes them particularly useful for route clearing missions, less for actual combat though.

 

[T.C.P]

Aside from utilizing a police force with dedicated hostage rescue training for the rescue mission in Nuseirat, Gaza, the IDF had also reportedly utilized Arab soldiers posing as displaced Gazans.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1799807376536785405

Bedouins vary greatly in their political affiliation. Some are about as pro-Palestine and antisemitic as it gets, while others proudly serve in the IDF. However their numbers are fairly low, especially in comparison to Druze who overwhelmingly choose to enlist in combat units and are generally highly patriotic. Therefore it is likely Druze.
Bedouins in contrast typically serve in tracker units, which makes them particularly useful for route clearing missions, less for actual combat though.

This is a bit off topic, but do you know how the Israeli Druze think about their Syrian counterparts. A lot of Syrian Druze prominently support Assad. While I am sure a lot of that is due to harsh realities of Syria. The Assad govt as bad as they are better for the minorites than their Islamist opposition.

I find the Druze fascinating. Such a small and much opressed minority, I wonder how they view their people of different nationalities. As a Bangali Bangladeshi, we have a lot of cultural bonds with our Indian Bengali counterparts, despite the religious and nationality differences, their is a hard to explain bond and sympathy between the our two border seperated groups. So I wonder how the Druze feel about other Druze from different countries.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

This is a bit off topic, but do you know how the Israeli Druze think about their Syrian counterparts. A lot of Syrian Druze prominently support Assad. While I am sure a lot of that is due to harsh realities of Syria. The Assad govt as bad as they are better for the minorites than their Islamist opposition.

I find the Druze fascinating. Such a small and much opressed minority, I wonder how they view their people of different nationalities. As a Bangali Bangladeshi, we have a lot of cultural bonds with our Indian Bengali counterparts, despite the religious and nationality differences, their is a hard to explain bond and sympathy between the our two border seperated groups. So I wonder how the Druze feel about other Druze from different countries.

As you may know, they're distant relatives of Islam, with the unique trait that the Druze faith is only inherited at birth. So one might imagine they're a uniquely knit tied group, but they're not.
Nationality transcends their ethnic-religious identity.
In Israel's early days when the first government had just started talks with Arab community leaders, the Druze insisted on mandatory conscription. The reason why all Arabs were offered permanent exemption is because the idea of Arabs killing Arabs in the name of Jews was considered a problematic idea for a range of reasons. Apparently not the case for the Druze.
Israeli Druze are patriotic to Israel, with the one exception being some border communities fearing a future Assad retaliation if the Golan ever switched hands again.
Syrian and Lebanese Druze, as I understand, were once patriotic for their respective countries but this patriotism isn't just granted automatically, and Syria's oppression of its people has certainly cost them some of that former allegiance.
Due to these circumstances, I've observed some otherwise unlikely closeness between Israeli and Syrian and Lebanese Druze communities.

I assume this stance is a result of some form of neutrality, seeking to reside wherever they may be without picking fights with governments whom they may outlast.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Footage from the rescue of 3 of the 4 hostages in the recent op. The 4th hostage, Noa Argamani, was held in another building about 200m away. Her rescue was reportedly done simultaneously.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1800228670356980105

 

[Big_Zucchini]

After accusations of genocide, war crimes, rape, and whatnot, the UN has finally also withdrawn its famine accusations after its own investigative body publicly released a report stating that the situation in Gaza cannot be classified as a famine.
I wonder what other libels will be debunked next.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1803188562852000224

 

[Big_Zucchini]

North Gaza is being evacuated. Not just parts of it as before (reportedly 300,000 resided there as of several months ago after the evacuations), but rather the entire Gaza city. As you can see on the map, it directs them toward the humanitarian zone.

Despite what many believe, the IDF has not even entered most of Gaza, in terms of territory. Large portions of Gaza have not seen war. This time I believe it's a bit more than a raid, to clear the area of Hamas buildup. After taking hits, Hamas needs to rally and reorganize. It takes time to re-learn the area, establish new forms of comms, and distribute ammo, food, and other resources. I assume this is what the IDF is after, and we've seen this in smaller scale previously, with smaller raids coming out of the Netzarim and Philadelphi corridors.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1810991931586965947