John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Interesting, when did the HK start, post 1997?
Japan, Koreas, China and Taiwan regional issues
- Thread starter Chino
- Start date
I think it was low before that, but I'm not sure how low.
Ah - scroll down for numbers from 1950. It's been below replacement since 1980, & was very low & dropping before 1997.
Hong Kong Fertility Rate 1950-2024
But we're wandering away from the topic.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
I think not everyone will appreciate that some people regard Hong Kong as a seperate country...
But yes, noy many countries have a lower birthrate than South-Korea. And i didnt expect that it has a similar or even lower birthrate than Japan.
Birth Rate by Country 2024
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
I would guess North Korea has the lowest survival rate for making adulthood.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
They're also more likely than any other country in East Asia to have malnourished children and young adults. One has to wonder how effective their military is as a result. They give extra rations to their soldiers, but by then they'll have long-term health issues.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
It is surprising that even the soldiers look skinny during the parades. Well, the positive thing is that obesity is not such a big problem in North-Korea, thanks to the Great Leader. Because he is the only one who is obese in the whole country.
SolarisKenzo
Well-Known Member
Crazy low numbers...
For comparison, the EU is a bit under 1.6 and the US around 1.7, but both blocks are reached by massive immigration that basically compensate the birth rate per woman (that should be 2).
For comparison, the EU is a bit under 1.6 and the US around 1.7, but both blocks are reached by massive immigration that basically compensate the birth rate per woman (that should be 2).
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Perhaps immigration bans in reverse will happen. Not sure what China’s policy is on citizens leaving but China does have a significant demographic problem looming and the CCP controls almost 100% of everything in China.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Holding citizen movement only within own country, can only be achieved with isolationist policy like DPRK doing now, or communist regime doing in cold war. That's will costs economics interaction with global market. Something that export oriented economy like China will not do. China already fully integrating with Global Economy, no matter some in US or even in Brussels try to reverse or hold that. Thus movement of people in and out China will still be open.
Immigration is something that are not embrace by East Asian and even Asian as whole, and only recently Japan and ROK opening more, due to their problem with labours. However even that it's much more control immigration environment then Europe or North America. There's tendencies that immigration law will be more open in future with Japan and ROK. However it will take time as Both are basically mono culture thinking.
For years the immigrant within Asia related much toward immigration from their imidiate neighbors. Japan mostly from Korean (due to their occupation of Korea) and Korea mostly from China (due to for centuries it is basically the only Korea trading partner). It is also shown in other part of Asia like Malaysia for years the significant immigration coming from Indonesia. While in most South East Asia, immigration mostly coming from China as overseas Chinese is also traders for most of East and South East Asia.
This is mostly to Asian relatively only accepting immigration from people that basically still close to their culture. Despite trading interaction between South Asia and South East Asia, the influx of South Asia people to SEA mostly done by Colonial Powers especially the British toward Malaysia and Singapore. East Asia basically have no colonial powers, which then make them more able to create mono culture or in case of China dominant Han culture.
Thus lower birth rate already changing Japan, ROK and Taiwan policies toward immigration. However it will not be as drastic changes like in North America, Europe or Australia. Most immigration so far to Japan, ROK and Taiwan are temporary workers that mostly themselves know well they will be only temporary in there, just to work and then go back to their own country. For case of Japan and ROK those temporary workers (most coming from other part of Asia), many are back to work with Japanese and ROK industries in their own country. Integrating to Japanese and ROK culture takes much more time and effort. At least significant proportion of Immigrant that stay in Japan and ROK are because they're married to the locals. This is what at least what Japan and ROK done to improve the productivity of their own industry, just build more industry in other part of Asia (mostly SEA) to keep their industrial chain competitive. This is more being done now even by Chinese, relatively more then bring overseas workers to their domestic industry back home.
Immigration is something that are not embrace by East Asian and even Asian as whole, and only recently Japan and ROK opening more, due to their problem with labours. However even that it's much more control immigration environment then Europe or North America. There's tendencies that immigration law will be more open in future with Japan and ROK. However it will take time as Both are basically mono culture thinking.
For years the immigrant within Asia related much toward immigration from their imidiate neighbors. Japan mostly from Korean (due to their occupation of Korea) and Korea mostly from China (due to for centuries it is basically the only Korea trading partner). It is also shown in other part of Asia like Malaysia for years the significant immigration coming from Indonesia. While in most South East Asia, immigration mostly coming from China as overseas Chinese is also traders for most of East and South East Asia.
This is mostly to Asian relatively only accepting immigration from people that basically still close to their culture. Despite trading interaction between South Asia and South East Asia, the influx of South Asia people to SEA mostly done by Colonial Powers especially the British toward Malaysia and Singapore. East Asia basically have no colonial powers, which then make them more able to create mono culture or in case of China dominant Han culture.
Thus lower birth rate already changing Japan, ROK and Taiwan policies toward immigration. However it will not be as drastic changes like in North America, Europe or Australia. Most immigration so far to Japan, ROK and Taiwan are temporary workers that mostly themselves know well they will be only temporary in there, just to work and then go back to their own country. For case of Japan and ROK those temporary workers (most coming from other part of Asia), many are back to work with Japanese and ROK industries in their own country. Integrating to Japanese and ROK culture takes much more time and effort. At least significant proportion of Immigrant that stay in Japan and ROK are because they're married to the locals. This is what at least what Japan and ROK done to improve the productivity of their own industry, just build more industry in other part of Asia (mostly SEA) to keep their industrial chain competitive. This is more being done now even by Chinese, relatively more then bring overseas workers to their domestic industry back home.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Taiwan confirms joint maritime drill with Japan Coast Guard - Focus Taiwan
Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) on Friday confirmed it conducted a joint maritime exercise with its Japanese counterpart the previous day to better ensure the safety of vessel navigation.
focustaiwan.tw
Japan CG and Taiwan CG conduct join exercise for first time in decades. All related to 2017 agreements between Japan and Taiwan. As ussual Japan state that the exercise not directed to any particular country, especially China.
Japanese 30,000-tonne patrol vessel due to enter service in 2029
ja.wikipedia.org
In the event of a Taiwan contingency, etc., it is envisaged that the Coast Guard will be responsible for the evacuation of residents in the Southwest Islands, including these waters, as part of the protection of the population in armed attack situations, etc. In June 2023, it is envisaged that residents will be evacuated on board under the control of the Minister of Defence and that Taiwan residents will be evacuated.
30,000トン型巡視船 - Wikipedia
ja.wikipedia.org
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
China has started military drills around Taiwan. Actually nothing something new.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
The Taiwanese embassy.... i mean Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States (TECRO) has requested to buy AN/TPS-77 and AN/TPS-78 radar turnkey systems, and related equipment for an estimated cost of $828 million.
Besides that also three NASAMS and related equipment for an estimated cost of $1,16 billion.
A certain neighbour will be not pleased with this acquisition.
Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States – National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System | Defense Security Cooperation Agency
Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States – AN/TPS-77 and AN/TPS-78 Radar Turnkey Systems | Defense Security Cooperation Agency
US approves air-defence, radar deals for Taiwan
Besides that also three NASAMS and related equipment for an estimated cost of $1,16 billion.
A certain neighbour will be not pleased with this acquisition.
Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States – National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System | Defense Security Cooperation Agency
Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States – AN/TPS-77 and AN/TPS-78 Radar Turnkey Systems | Defense Security Cooperation Agency
US approves air-defence, radar deals for Taiwan
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Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
A normal day in the West-Pacific region: a chinese vessel bullied and Filipino one.
The Philippine coast guard said the Chinese coast guard ship “intentionally sideswiped" the ship and then “launched a second water cannon attack on the same vessel".
China's coast guard said in an initial statement that Philippine ships "came dangerously close" and that its crew's actions had been "in accordance with the law".
www.bbc.com
But there were also increased activities from china near Taiwan. 47 military aeroplanes, 12 naval ships and 9 Coastguard ships were detected near Taiwan in the last 24 hours.
nos.nl
The Philippine coast guard said the Chinese coast guard ship “intentionally sideswiped" the ship and then “launched a second water cannon attack on the same vessel".
China's coast guard said in an initial statement that Philippine ships "came dangerously close" and that its crew's actions had been "in accordance with the law".
Philippines says China Coast Guard 'sideswiped' vessel
The incident happened near the disputed Scarborough Shoal and Beijing said it acted "in accordance with the law".
www.bbc.com
But there were also increased activities from china near Taiwan. 47 military aeroplanes, 12 naval ships and 9 Coastguard ships were detected near Taiwan in the last 24 hours.
Toenemende militaire activiteit China rondom Taiwan na terugkeer president
In de afgelopen 24 uur werden 47 militaire vliegtuigen, 12 marineschepen en 9 civiele schepen, waaronder kustwachtvaartuigen, waargenomen.
nos.nl
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SolarisKenzo
Well-Known Member
China has been improving their military capabilities for years now, we could say almost two decades.
Are they going to build up forever without attacking anyone?
To prepare for a war and then dont fight it (even more than losing it) can destroy a country.
Mine is a serious question, I am really interested in seeing what will China do...
Are they going to start a major war with the US and their allies?
Are they not?
Are they going to attack Taiwan or are they not?
What do Xi Jinping's regime want to do?
Are they going to build up forever without attacking anyone?
To prepare for a war and then dont fight it (even more than losing it) can destroy a country.
Mine is a serious question, I am really interested in seeing what will China do...
Are they going to start a major war with the US and their allies?
Are they not?
Are they going to attack Taiwan or are they not?
What do Xi Jinping's regime want to do?
Plenty of countries do that. Singapore has the most modern armed forces in South East Asia and one of the largest budget (USD 15 billion, 2024) consistently since independence.
Is it going to destroy the country?
If they achieve their aims, without firing a single shot, I'm sure they would be happy for it.
This is a complicated question to answer. I would recommend that you read up on the materials available. A good source is from Andrew Erickson and his work with the China Maritime Studies Institute (Andrew S. Erickson). Other materials from Lyle Goldstein is recommended. I am skeptical of those RAND studies, and will take it with a pinch of salt.
The latest Study No. 8, Chinese Amphibious W Study No. 8, Chinese Amphibious Warfare: Prospects for a Cross Strait Invasion (Nov 2024) will give you all the latest information. link
I'll try to answer (in summary of all I've read / studied so far):
- Taiwan independence is a red line for the PRC and they have said unambiguously that force is an clear option if it happens.
- That is a condition, not a timetable (e.g 2027). My opinion is this is fairly concrete. For the military option, they have only 1 shot to make it work and the cost is very high (economic, social, military). As a result, they will try to avoid it as much as possible, unless their hands are forced by 1.)
- They/PRC are students of history as much as we are.
- It is likely that America and its allies will intervene in any Taiwan scenarios. However, that intervention may take different forms, depending on the prevailing situation/PRC action.
- Attacking the US preemptively (like Japan, 1941) to cause maximum damage will guaranteed America intervenes forcefully/kinetically.
- Their goal is Taiwan first, not a war with the US/Allies, so they will try to avoid giving them a reason to be involved.
- As for how they will execute it, Erickson covered the options extensively.
Re 2027 goal has been much discussed, but most observers, including myself don't see it has the so called hard deadline / Davidson window.
It just happens that 2027 is the centenary of the People's Liberation Army (founded August 1, 1927). Like a good CEO giving a pep talk to his executives, you want to create a sense of urgency and get people to focus.
Funny enough, I think this 2027 window, first mentioned by Adm Davidson is the US's own version of the pep talk to try to create their own sense of urgency to get Congress to take the China threat seriously.
eng.chinamil.com.cn
It just happens that 2027 is the centenary of the People's Liberation Army (founded August 1, 1927). Like a good CEO giving a pep talk to his executives, you want to create a sense of urgency and get people to focus.
Funny enough, I think this 2027 window, first mentioned by Adm Davidson is the US's own version of the pep talk to try to create their own sense of urgency to get Congress to take the China threat seriously.
Xi urges military to focus on its centenary goals - China Military
China Eastern Airlines flight MU5735, en route from Kunming to Guangzhou, lost contact and crashed over Wuzhou city of South China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region at 14:38 on March 21. The PLA Southern Theater Command launched the emergency response mechanism at the news.