RMAF Future; need opinions

[koxinga]

Seems like the discussion on used Kuwaiti F-18s are back on the agenda.

The local defense blogger gave more insights into the local news reports of a trip in June to Kuwait for negotiations. While they desire as many spare airframes as possible, up to 12 to reactivate a single squadron is planned and 4 more dual seats. So they will end up with 2 squadrons, 12 x F-18C (single seaters), 12 x F-18D (dual seaters, with the 8 existing Ds)

Picking 16 good airframes out of 32/33 offers better chances for a longer lifespan. This would be realistic from a sustainment perspective given that RMAF deactivated and never replaced their MiG-29 squadron. (14 units)

Kuwaiti Hornets, Next Change or Coming Soon - Malaysian Defence

SHAH ALAM: National news agency, Bernama reported yesterday that a RMAF delegation is scheduled to visit Kuwait next month to discuss the procurement of the country’s fleet of Boeing F/A-18 Hornets. It quoted RMAF chief TS Asghar Khan as saying that the Kuwaiti Air Force as having thirty-nine...

www.malaysiandefence.com

 

[Ananda]

Hopefully this time around, this ex Kuwaiti Hornet procurement will not turn out (again) on prolong drama. Having 1 sq F-18C and 1 sq F-18D, support by 2 sq LCA of FA-50 plus existing sq of Su-30MKM going to put back lost capacities. Not also counting the LCA and Hornet using similar engine, going to improve their logistics footprint. Something thar Malaysian AF also pursuing.

 

[koxinga]

If they can secure the rest of the airframes, RMAF can stockpile significant quantity of spares to sustain the 24 operational units for the next 10 - 15 years up to 2035 - 2040.

All of this, still unclear where it stands with US and the Kuwaitis. I presume US gave the greenlight for discussions else it won't happen.

 

[Pusser01]

Out of interest what happened to the Mig-29's? I wonder if the USA has looked into buying them to then pass onto Ukraine. Cheers.

 

[koxinga]

Out of interest what happened to the Mig-29's? I wonder if the USA has looked into buying them to then pass onto Ukraine. Cheers.

Why would Malaysia sell to US for transfer to Ukraine, when they are operators of RU SU-30MKM and potentially get screwed by the OEM in the support? They have tried to diversify their MRO to reduce cost and be less reliant on RU but key components still come from RU.

The idea of transfering RU equipment to support Ukraine is relevant to European countries that faces a direct threat, but gets increasingly irrelevant outside of Europe. Case in point was the planned transfer of Mil-17 helicopters from Ecuador and the threat of Russian reliatation over the banana trade.

That being said, at least one has ended up as a gate guardian and one in the museum.

First Fulcrum as Gate Guard - Malaysian Defence

SHAH ALAM: It appears that the first RMAF Mig-29 Fulcrum to be turn into a gate guard has left Kuantan airbase. A video on Facebook by Adam Johan dated January 4 showed tail number M43-06 being taken out from the base aircraft shelters and placed on a low-loader truck. In [...]

www.malaysiandefence.com

 

[Pusser01]

Why would Malaysia sell to US for transfer to Ukraine, when they are operators of RU SU-30MKM and potentially get screwed by the OEM in the support? They have tried to diversify their MRO to reduce cost and be less reliant on RU but key components still come from RU.

The idea of transfering RU equipment to support Ukraine is relevant to European countries that faces a direct threat, but gets increasingly irrelevant outside of Europe. Case in point was the planned transfer of Mil-17 helicopters from Ecuador and the threat of Russian reliatation over the banana trade.

That being said, at least one has ended up as a gate guardian and one in the museum.

First Fulcrum as Gate Guard - Malaysian Defence

SHAH ALAM: It appears that the first RMAF Mig-29 Fulcrum to be turn into a gate guard has left Kuantan airbase. A video on Facebook by Adam Johan dated January 4 showed tail number M43-06 being taken out from the base aircraft shelters and placed on a low-loader truck. In [...]

www.malaysiandefence.com

They may try to divest themselves from RU equipment exactly for that reason, supply of spares & support has been an issue over the lifespan of both the Su-20 & Mig-29.

 

[koxinga]

They may try to divest themselves from RU equipment exactly for that reason, supply of spares & support has been an issue over the lifespan of both the Su-20 & Mig-29.

Divesting RU hardware due to maintenance reasons is different from diversting RU hardware to aid Ukraine. The Americans never asked, so I supposed there's that. But even if they did, few if any states in the region would release military hardware knowing it would end up in Ukraine.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

It will be maybe better if Malaysia sell their MiG-29Ns to India, so India can use them for spareparts to keep their MiG-29K longer.



Now something else, about the TAI Anka.
|"Malaysian Anka-S drones are expected to be based at Labuan Air Base in East Malaysia, allowing for persistent coverage of the South China Sea and Malaysia’s maritime border with the Philippines."|
Seems like a good decision to me, this make Malaysia more capable to patrol its EEZ surrounding the James Shoal (Beting Serupai) and the Luconia Shoals (Beting Raja Jarum/Patinggi Ali), north of Sarawak.

I also wonder how similar the 12 TAI Anka UAVs Indonesia has ordered from Turkey.

DSA 2024: Royal Malaysian Air Force Anka-S Purchase Update - Naval News

The Royal Malaysian Air Force provided an update on the status of its purchase of three Turkish Aerospace Anka-S UAV during DSA 2024.

www.navalnews.com

Edit: already 10 days old news, but i just found this...

The State Department has approved a possible Foreign Military Sale of 10 AN/AAQ-33 Sniper Advanced Targeting Pods for the 8 F-18D multirole fighters of TUDM. The estimated total cost is $80 million.

Malaysia – Sniper Advanced Targeting Pods | Defense Security Cooperation Agency

www.dsca.mil

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

|"According to the U.S. Embassy to Malaysia, the U.S. government has provided approximately $60 million in Maritime Security Initiative grant funding for the conversion of the three cargo aircraft to maritime surveillance configuration by CN235 manufacturer PT Dirgantara Indonesia, with the program the first major U.S. security grant program in Malaysia. Other aid supplied under the Maritime Security Initiative includes Insitu ScanEagle drones donated to the Royal Malaysian Navy.

The CN235s are equipped with maritime surveillance radars, electro-optical infrared turrets, beyond line-of sight communications and roll-on/roll-off system operator stations. While neither the embassy or the Royal Malaysian Air Force has provided details on their sensor capabilities, PT Dirgantara Indonesia claims that the maritime surveillance radar is able to detect “small” targets up to 200 nautical miles away."|


So the TUDM has received three capable MPA's from a type of aircraft they already familiar with. And in the near future these three CN235-220 MPAs will be supported with the planned arrival of three Turkish Aerospace Industries Anka-S drones configured for maritime surveillance starting next year, as well as the delivery of two Leonardo-built ATR 72 maritime patrol aircraft starting in 2026.

US Hands Over Three CN235 Maritime Surveillance Aircraft to Malaysia - Naval News

The United States formally handed over three CN235-220 maritime surveillance aircraft to the Royal Malaysian Air Force on June 27.

www.navalnews.com

 

[koxinga]

The discussions on the transfer of Kuwait Hornet continues. That this is being followed up indicates the interest is real at the government level.

Khaled: Possible purchase of Hornet jets for RMAF discussed with Kuwaiti ambassador | New Straits Times

KUALA LUMPUR: Talks are well underway between Malaysia and Kuwait for the procurement of the latter’s F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets for the Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF).

www.nst.com.my

 

[Ananda]

x.com

x.com

Malaysian Defense Minister X account Malaysia-Kuwait defense cooperation will schedule to sign MoU later on. The Malaysian defense enthusiast and insiders expert put speculation of Kuwait C/D Hornet is the much needed 'interim' solutions Expert hopes RMAF plan to buy Kuwaiti F/A-18 Hornets takes off | New Straits Times.

So it is increasingly become must do solutions that Malaysia AF need to do, as they have not got enough budget yet for new MRCA. Replacing Mig-29 has become 'unfinished' hole that need to patch ASAP. The delay of Kuwait Shornet will delay patching the hole, but at least has to be secure soon.

 

[koxinga]

No issue to sell, but subjected to two conditions. The US is unlikely to object, however, the Super Hornets and Typhoons would complete delivery probably around 2025.

The procurement however is subject to approval from the supplier country - the United States - and could only be done once Kuwait has received all of its new fighter aircraft, the F/A-18E and F/A-18F Super Hornet as well as the Eurofighter Typhoon.

Still a question, if they could find the OE funding to keep them operational.

[UPDATED] Khaled: Kuwait 'positive' over Malaysia's plan to procure F/A-18 Hornet jets | New Straits Times

KUALA LUMPUR: Kuwait has no objections to Malaysia’s request to procure their F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets, said Defence Minister Datuk Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin.

www.nst.com.my

 

[Ananda]

x.com

x.com

An Indonesian Defense Enthusiasts X account put photo of DI personnel during factory-customers acceptance and delivery process. This is on one of RMAF CN-235 that's being refurbished as MPA. This enthusiasts seems have connections with DI insiders.

 

[Ananda]

Having 1 sq F-18C and 1 sq F-18D, support by 2 sq LCA of FA-50 plus existing sq of Su-30MKM going to put back lost capacities. Not also counting the LCA and Hornet using similar engine, going to improve their logistics footprint.

Malaysia’s Purchase of Kuwaiti Hornets: Is It Worth It? | FULCRUM

On the surface, Malaysia’s planned purchase of Hornet fighter jets from Kuwait looks prudent. But there are deeper considerations to mull over.

fulcrum.sg

USMC upgrading one-third of F/A-18 Hornets to serve until 2030 or later

The US Marine Corps (USMC) is now half complete with a modernisation programme for its single-seat Boeing F/A-18Cs and two-seat F/A-18Ds, an effort to boost the ageing jets' capabilities as the service faces delayed deliveries of Lockheed Martin F-35s.

www.flightglobal.com

Although Dr Olli Pekka has a point:

The key question here is whether the acquisition of the ageing Kuwaiti jets is prudent. Expanding its fleet of Hornets on the cheap may be tempting, but it comes with the additional maintenance and servicing burden associated with a larger fleet of ageing aircraft.

However the 2nd article also in my opinion shown with USMC still try to maintain their legacy Hornet, means there's still considerable industrial resources to support legacy Hornet. There's also consideration that Kuwait like other Gulf Kingdoms ussualy maintain low hours with stockpile parts support fleets.

This argument remind me on debate in Indonesia when MinDef try to obtain Qatar and UAE Mirage 2000 as "Intererim" fighter. The talk of obsolescence systems and Industrial support also being put by several local 'analysts'. However seems India now entering the talk to acquire those Qatar or even UAE Mirage 2K.

I'm no Defense Industry insiders, however this kind of argument is similar to arguments that come out in civilian transport industry. Whether it is more cost effective to procure new assets or maintain and refurbished older ones.

This is similar with legacy F-16 users like Indonesia that's now being face on the choices whether continue upgrading their F-16 (whether using LM V package or Turkiye Ozgur package), or let them naturally run down and use the money for getting into replacement project earlier (in this case potentially KF-21).

For cases of legacy F-16 and F-18 so far shown the Industrial supports for parts and refurbished packages still there. Thus provide them with alternative potential cost effective choice to maintain them at least for a decade and half or even two. Malaysian AF (TUDM) also has done inspection on Kuwait Hornet and found them still in good condition with relatively low flying hours and support by enough parts.

In the end Industrial support on parts and population still in using do matter. For example in TNI-AU, Hawk 200 deemed not suitable to upgrade more, as the population in global market not big enough to keep cost effective Industrial support. Seems that argument has different situations for legacy F-16 and F-18 that still has enough population in Global Inventory that make Industrial support still available to maintain and refurbished them on relatively cost effective choices.

For that I respectfully and humbly disagree with esteem expert like Dr Olli Pekka assessment. I believe for Kuwait Legacy Hornet, Malaysia still has cost effective choice to acquire and maintaining them. That's in the condition of RMAF/TUDM budget situations.

 

[koxinga]

The Malaysian government (not RMAF) has decided to lease 28 helicopters (to be spread across different users from Army to Police) directly (likely AW149) from Leonardo in a lease-to-own deal for 15 years at a cost of RM16.5 billion (USD 3.7billion).

Somewhat incomprehensible statements (or outright lie) by the Prime Minister in their Parliament that Indonesia, Philippines and Singapore also does this (new flash, no). Financially, the numbers does not make sense.

RMAF operate 12 x EC725 Caracal which they acquired for RM 2.3 billion, and awarded a new maintenance contract last year for 5 years is just RM378 million. The Philppines bought 32 x S-70i Blackhawks for US $577.3 million in 2021.

Anwar: RM16b Leonardo helicopter leasing contract backed by Italian govt, not ‘direct nego’

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 28 — Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim told Parliament today that the RM16 billion contract to lease over two dozen Leonardo helicopters for 15 years is...

www.malaymail.com

PMX Defends Helicopter Leasing Programme - Malaysian Defence

SHAH ALAM: PMX has defended the decision to lease the helicopters for the military and other government agencies – RM16.5 billion for 15 years – during the Parliament session on Thursday. Among others he said the government adopted the leasing model to reduce maintenance costs and at the same...

www.malaysiandefence.com

 

[Ananda]

Somewhat incomprehensible statements (or outright lie) by the Prime Minister in their Parliament that Indonesia, Philippines and Singapore also does this (new flash, no).

The only government agency in Indonesia that lease helicopters as far as I know is BNPB. This is the agency that handle natural disaster and emergency situation.

https://monitorindonesia.com/investigasi/read/2023/11/574840/penyewaan-helikopter-di-bnpb-untuk-penanganan-karhutla-dipertanyakan

BNPB Sewa Heli Chinook dan Black Hawk untuk Urusan Karhutla dan COVID-19

BNPB mendatangkan dua helikopter jenis Chinook dan Black Hawk buatan Amerika Serikat. Keduanya didatangkan untuk mendukung penanganan bencana di Indonesia.

news.detik.com

However they ussualy only lease helicopters for short term bases. Mostly to handle forest fires or logistics on remote area. Even that the agency got questioning in parliament, by government audit office and media on some discrepancies on the billing costs. Certainly no Defense and Security agencies use Lease on their assets.

Definitely this is becoming questions in Malaysia on this leasing practices for Armed Forces. Especially 15 years for more than USD 3.5 bio. Even with all maintenance being handle by the Lessor, still big number for only 15 helicopters for one and half decade period.