The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russian forces seem to be on the outskirts of Chasov Yar, preparing to assault the town. I'm a bit curious, since Russia doesn't have the northern or southern flank secured. One would expect to see moves in Bogdanovka, Grigorievka, and Kalinovka before any actual assault.

The terrain around it is also complex, and the town itself is relatively dense. This is going to be a difficult uphill (literally) battle for Russia. And for the life of me I can't figure out why this is the priority. Strategically it's not that significant, and there are much better targets of opportunity (like Seversk or Krasnogorovka). Unless something changes fairly drastically, I suspect Russia will take the town eventually, but we're talking about likely months of fighting.

 

Larry_L

Active Member
Ukraine keeps striking deeper into Russia. The latest strikes were on a drone production shop and another oil refinery. These drones appear to be modified ultralight aircraft. A kind of poor mans cruise missile. Russia claims that a student Dorm was hit.


A vid of the removal of a drone from the oil refinery.


A report on the drone shop from a year ago.


A claim that Russia is importing oil from Belarus.


In other news Germany is adding to the fund for the Czech find of ammunition for Ukraine. Hopefully that is now fully funded. I don't believe any have been delivered yet.


Estonia has found another 1.2 million shells. Now they are looking for funding for those. Ukraine could probably use them up by the end of the year.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
A video from Severodonetsk. This is our first sign that some sort of significant reconstruction efforts there have begun. A brief summary, we have the story of a Russian construction worker who is originally from the Donbas who has decided to travel there for work to take part in the reconstruction efforts. He mentions a couple of civilian residential houses being rebuilt, and then focuses on the rebuilding of a local construction college, which has been at least partially successful We get a few glimpses of life on the streets, and we can see parts of the city still destroyed. Note, the documentary is in essence a Russian propaganda flick.


This comes at the same time as we get news of 60 buses sent to Severodonetsk over the past year. The buses in question are the relatively small PAZ and LiAZ, 26 seaters. In other words some sort of normality is slowly returning, but the efforts are slow, and I suspect reactive due to much population remaining there, rather then a directed effort to rebuild the city.

 

Larry_L

Active Member
General Lapin seems to be leaving Ukraine for a new post for Leningrad. This does not look like a demotion.


Some Sat. images of Novorossiysk docks, with ships identified, and the harbor defense.


A clear video of a Russian strike on a bridge in Zaporizhia. One span or two are down. Possibly a pier also. It could probably be repaired in a temporary fashion.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
General Lapin seems to be leaving Ukraine for a new post for Leningrad. This does not look like a demotion.


Some Sat. images of Novorossiysk docks, with ships identified, and the harbor defense.


A clear video of a Russian strike on a bridge in Zaporizhia. One span or two are down. Possibly a pier also. It could probably be repaired in a temporary fashion.

Yeah, that bridge attack coupled with recent Russian activity in the area makes me wonder if Russia intends to try and take Malinovka or even Gulyaypole. If they have the forces to spare, it might make sense since Ukraine is busy slowly losing around around Donetsk. On a long enough timeline it could even be developed into a west-ward push towards Orekhov, instead of trying to enter it from the Rabotino axis. But the pace is glacial, which might mean opportunistic strikes and advances without a grand plan.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
A claim that Russia is importing oil from Belarus.

According to Reuters, the damage in Tatarstan was not significant and the personnel returned to work:

Pictures from the scene showed the drone hit the primary refining unit, CDU-7, though it did not appear to have caused serious damage.

The industry source, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said personnel was returning to the plant.



The article also reports (citing RIA, however) that it took 20 minutes to extinguish the fire. If true, that would confirm that the damage was indeed minimal.

Those things that were used for the hit, however… And the fact that they flew over 1,000 km over Russia… Pretty crazy.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
A video from Severodonetsk. This is our first sign that some sort of significant reconstruction efforts there have begun.
Russians don't spare money for reconstruction and social benefits in the territories under their control. And it works. As I said, people there don't care which country they are living in as long as they get their retirement benefits. And Russia is paying them nicely.

Reconstruction effort also aims to show that under Russian rule, lives returns to normal. Some exiled Ukrainians even want to return there because they hear from relatives that life is good, and even better than before.
Ukraine before the war was poor and this poverty was caused by rampant post-soviet corruption. Russia is as corrupt, but with the difference that Russia can afford to be corrupt and still distribute benefits where they see fit.

This form of economy is artificial and will be viable only as long as Russia pour money into the region.

Ukraine, on the other side, is suffering from the war. But as soon as the war will end, whatever remains as independent Ukraine will join the European economic zone, and later the EU. And then economic conditions will improve rapidly.

Larry_L said:
Russia claims that a student Dorm was hit.
I didn't read that student slept at the drone production factory. It's possible that Russians say that it was a dormitory to minimize the impact. But even if it's true, workers or students will be afraid to work there. People get scared quickly even when damages are not significant.

Same with the refinery:
KipPotapych said:
the damage in Tatarstan was not significant and the personnel returned to work:
It won't affect fuel supplies across Russia. Because to do that you would need hundreds of strikes. Not one here and there.
But the psychological impact is important. People working there won;t feel safe. Even people not working there won't feel safe because they see the pictures on TV.
Repair cost and loss of revenues are also important.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It seems Russia has decided to seize the Canal neighborhood in the eastern part of Chasov Yar. Russian force have passed through the houses on the outskirts and reportedly are now engaging the first line of high rise apartments. Other then that, not much is going on, the same minor advances. I'll try to post an update today or tomorrow.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
Ukraine is concentrating on airfields now. Reports of 3 airfields attacked with Differing reports on damage. Fighter bomber has little to say.


Another supposedly Russian source.


Kiev post and other sources







https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1776085770756849666

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1776108573086642246

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1776252553665094123

There are rumors of Ukraine attacking a bridge. Several are named. Likely one of these is a mistake.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukraine is concentrating on airfields now. Reports of 3 airfields attacked with Differing reports on damage. Fighter bomber has little to say.


Another supposedly Russian source.


Kiev post and other sources







https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1776085770756849666

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1776108573086642246

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1776252553665094123

There are rumors of Ukraine attacking a bridge. Several are named. Likely one of these is a mistake.
Footage post-attack, and a recent post from Fighterbomber seems to discredit the claim of many destroyed aircraft. However we should give it more time.


EDIT: Photos from Eysk, it seems no destroyed jets there either.


EDIT2: More satellite images showing no evidence of destroyed jets.

 
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Fredled

Active Member
I think it's very difficult to confirm or infirm the damages of such strikes from independent sources if such a thing even exists. I imagine that Ukrainians have datas from their drones, and possibly direct video imaging from the drones cameras. I don't know the technology that they are using but I think that the drones are monitored and piloted in real time by teams on the grounds and that they see what happens via Starlink.

Of course we can always doubt their reports. That's why I don't speculate much on this. I just hope they don't lie (or don't lie too much) and know what they are doing.

The same about about their claim to have destroyed 15 tanks, 73 APCs, 50 artillery pieces and 61 other vehicles on Friday 5th and another 24 tanks, 38 APCs and 41 artillery piece and 70 other vehicles the next day.(These are much bigger numbers than average.)
Nobody can verify this. We can only hope that it's true if you support Ukraine (or at least with a true basis despite probably inflated numbers) or that it's false if you support Russia.

Indirectly, as informations trickle out from Russia, we can see the efforts they make to replenish their ground equipment. Meaning that something serious happened. We don't see that yet with air planes because the number of recently damaged or downed jets is too small to have an impact even if unverified Ukrainian claims are true.

More interesting is how they managed to fly drones up to these bases. Striking Novoazovsk is remarkable because drones have to cross the Donbass and pass through the air defence network there, then keep flying up to the base undetected.
One or two drome flying undetected is nothing special, but several dozens is another story.
Perhaps the absence of A52 helped? Or maybe they were detected but there were no way to intercept them before they reached the air base air defence?

Ukrainians also hit a pipeline near Azov.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
I'm not sure if even the claims of Ukraine regarding Russian losses in these airbases were true would be enough to curtail operations ,it might though mean Russia redeploys such aircraft further from the front
With the announcement thought of the Spring military conscription of up to three hundred thousand men but Tass announces at the same time the dismissal of men who had earlier served, a question would be what is the nett increase of Russian forces in Ukraine with this
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I'm not sure if even the claims of Ukraine regarding Russian losses in these airbases were true would be enough to curtail operations ,it might though mean Russia redeploys such aircraft further from the front
With the announcement thought of the Spring military conscription of up to three hundred thousand men but Tass announces at the same time the dismissal of men who had earlier served, a question would be what is the nett increase of Russian forces in Ukraine with this
There is no connection with Ukraine. Conscripts aren't fighting. This is the usual cycle of conscription and demobilizing that happens ever year and the numbers roughly balance out. And the announcement is not 300 000, it's 150 000...

I think it's very difficult to confirm or infirm the damages of such strikes from independent sources if such a thing even exists. I imagine that Ukrainians have datas from their drones, and possibly direct video imaging from the drones cameras. I don't know the technology that they are using but I think that the drones are monitored and piloted in real time by teams on the grounds and that they see what happens via Starlink.

Of course we can always doubt their reports. That's why I don't speculate much on this. I just hope they don't lie (or don't lie too much) and know what they are doing.

The same about about their claim to have destroyed 15 tanks, 73 APCs, 50 artillery pieces and 61 other vehicles on Friday 5th and another 24 tanks, 38 APCs and 41 artillery piece and 70 other vehicles the next day.(These are much bigger numbers than average.)
Nobody can verify this. We can only hope that it's true if you support Ukraine (or at least with a true basis despite probably inflated numbers) or that it's false if you support Russia.

Indirectly, as informations trickle out from Russia, we can see the efforts they make to replenish their ground equipment. Meaning that something serious happened. We don't see that yet with air planes because the number of recently damaged or downed jets is too small to have an impact even if unverified Ukrainian claims are true.

More interesting is how they managed to fly drones up to these bases. Striking Novoazovsk is remarkable because drones have to cross the Donbass and pass through the air defence network there, then keep flying up to the base undetected.
One or two drome flying undetected is nothing special, but several dozens is another story.
Perhaps the absence of A52 helped? Or maybe they were detected but there were no way to intercept them before they reached the air base air defence?

Ukrainians also hit a pipeline near Azov.
It seems they are lying too much. Even western outlets aren't buying it.

 
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Fredled

Active Member
It seems that drones had reached the Novoazovsk air base and the other ones but failed to inflict damage. But why did the Ukrainians say that at least six aircraft have been destroyed? If it's not true, it's completely nuts.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Conscription is not connected to Ukraine, nonetheless, everybody is afraid that once serving, they will be sent to the meat grinder. All thought most of the Russian forces consists in reservists and volunteers, some conscripts have been seen fighting in Ukraine (perhaps voluntarily?).
There is also fear in Russia about the idea that Putin could order a second mobilisation in 2024.

So far Russia is able to hire or enlist about 1000 new recruits per day on voluntary or semi-voluntary basis. As long as they can, they don't need to mobilise or send conscripts. Yet, it's not sure that they can keep up this pace because prisons in Siberia become empty.
 
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Fredled

Active Member
One more thought about the airfield attacks: I don't think that the lies are intentional. I think it's more poor reporting.
Getting back to the April 5th report on Novoazovsl strike:
Ukrinform said:
This was reported to Ukrinform by a source (in the) law enforcement agencies.
Yeah, they don't even mention which agency it was.

It means, IMO, that someone told somebody something and there are immediately articles popping up all over the Ukrainiosphere. ...And nobody verifies.

I won't give credit anymore when they quote "a source". But only when they name a person explicitly.

Today, again, more details on the drone attack on the Yelsk airbase by an anonymous Defence Intelligence official.
While this report looks more detailed, and possibly more accurate, I won't take it at face value until the anonymous official tells his name. Either they know that they tell the truth and that they are authorised to tell it and then, they can tell their name without fear of being yet one more sacked by Zelensky, or they shut up their face. If they want to stay anonymous it means that they are not sure of what they say or they are not authorised to speak about this matter.

I suspect that the source in the first link heard that "maybe 5 or 6 aircraft were damaged" at one of the airbase, then it became "at least 6 were destroyed at Novoazovsk and many more damaged", while the truth is (if confirmed) "4 planes damaged at Yelsk" (without precising how bad they were damaged).
We are still waiting for a complete satelite view of the air base to assess the truth.

I also suspect the Novoazovsk air base defenders to have inflated the number of drones that was hurled at them. Not 40 drones, but perhaps 5 or 10 (how many explosions on the VK video?).
First, I doubt that Ukrainians are able to fly so many drones that far away. Second I doubt that Russians could have downed 40 drones simultaneously. AFAIK, Ukrainian anonymous sources never talked about such numbers.

it's also possible that the drones were low tech and those who were not destroyed in flight simply missed their targets.

_____________________

Cyril Budanov on the present and future situation.
I found it interesting to read.

_____________________

The IAEA said that a drone explosion was recorded on the territory of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

Remember, Ukrainians constantly blamed the Russians for the shells which fell near the plant. Al thought I support Ukraine, I always thought that it didn't make sens. It was obvious that the Ukrainians did it.
Today, the drone was certainly Ukrainian too. it's not clear whether the drone detonated itself because it was carrying an explosive charge or because it was hit by an explosive projectile...
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Oskol Front.

Russian forces have been pushed back from their latest advances at Terny. Reportedly it was a Ukrainian counter-attack on the shoulders of a failed Russian attack. However the movement remains minor and Russian forces are still very close to the village. It's likely that without reserves Ukraine won't be able to push Russian forces back much further.


It appears Russian forces either never managed to secure their foothold inside Spornoe or were pushed out. Either way, the village is entirely in Ukrainian hands. Previously it's eastern half was reported under Russian control. Note the village itself is tiny, even by village standards (less then 100 buildings) so it can be hard to tell where exactly the line is.


Ukrainian BMP-1 getting hit near Torskoe.


Russia struck another Ukrainian crossing near Kupyansk. However by itself the lone strike isn't very effective. To get results you need continuous strikes, coupled with offensive action on the front lines.


Seversk salient.

Russian forces have made some gains around Belogorovka. They seem to be preparing to attack the large refuse mound south of the village, a logical step. Russian forces have also resumed attacks along the rail line that leads to Vyemka, widening their area of control. I believe that if things continue as they have been, Russia may be taking Seversk before the end of the year.


A rare Ukrainian Shilka getting hit.


Battle of Chasov Yar.

Russian forces now inside Chasov Yar, holding some houses on the eastern outskirts of the Canal neighborhood. The first row of highrises is currently contested. Russian forces have also advanced inside Bogdanovka, with some sources reporting it fully under Russian control. Also Russian forces are advancing along the hill north of Krasnoe/Ivanovskoe. It seems likely Ukraine intends to hold the line along the canal, but there is a large section of wooded area south-east of Chasov Yar where the canal goes underground, and Russia can probably enter the city. While the terrain in and around Chasov Yar is far more complex then around Artemovsk/Bakhmut, it's also a much smaller town, only ~13 sq kms of area, and a pre-war population of ~12 000. Of course as we have seen in Mar'inka, the smallest towns can take a very long time to take if they are well fortified, and the defense is well organized.


A Ukrainian Mi-24/35 has been downed near Chasov Yar. Reportedly it was one of the Mi-35s recently handed over by the Czechs, but this obviously isn't confirmed.


Russian FPV drone strikes a Ukrainian tank near Kalinovka. Kalinovka is the village west of Bogdanovka, on the northern flank of Chasov Yar.


Ukrainian M109 getting taken out near Stupochki.


Ukrainian T-72AV knocked out near Bogdanovka.


Ukrainian forces using a UGV to blow a bridge in Ivanovskoe.


An M113 and Humvee, Ukrainian, destroyed near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Russia is striking Chasov Yar with bombs and artillery. The town will likely be in ruins before all is said and done.


Some footage from inside Krasnoe/Ivanovskoe. The village is basically destroyed.


Avdeevka.

Just after I point out that for some reason Russia isn't pushing northward anymore, Russia pushes northward, seizing a foothold in Novokalinovo. It's not immediately clear what the medium term goal in this direction might be. Russian forces are also advancing westward as before. They're slowly gaining ground in Berdychy, and have entered Semenovka. They've also crept up to Umanskoe.


A failed Ukrainian counter-attack near Avdeevka. I suspect this might be the fields south of Umanskoe. We have what appear to be 3 Bradleys, one getting knocked out by artillery, and the other hitting a land mine.


A Russian T-72 of unknown variant in action near Avdeevka. It carries a new multi-antenna EW setup, and very heavy camouflage. Why unknown variant? Because with the roof cage and camouflage we can't clearly make out the sight box or ERA configuration.


Russian forces advancing near Avdeevka pass by a retreating Russian tank, on fire.


Russia has struck a dam near Umanskoe, the village west of Tonen'koe and Orlovka. The dam was being used as a logistical route by Ukrainian forces.


A series of Russian FPV drone strikes against Ukrainian vehicles in the Avdeevka area.


Ukrainian T-64BV getting taken out near Tonen'koe.


Ukrainian BMP-(1?) getting hit west of Avdeevka. For all the much-publicized deliveries of western kit, the BMP-1 remains Ukraine's most common IFV.


Ukrainian SP howitzer getting hit by a lancet strike. Note that a Russian UAV watches it take it's position in a treeline.


Russian soldiers pose with a knocked out Bradley west of Avdeevka.


Russian forces haul away another captured Bradley near Avdeevka. I've lost count, but we've got at least 3 total so far.


Pervomayskoe.

Russian forces are pushing westward inside the village, and north of it, west of Vodyanoe. Russian forces are now less then 1km from the next village, Netailovo.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Mar'inka area.

Russian forces have been pushed out of Krasnogorovka. They are now in the forest line south of the town. Meanwhile Russia has begun advancing on the town from the east, but it's slow going. Fortifications are heavy from this side. I think Russia will have to approach from the north, south, and east, before taking the town.


Novomihailovka-Ugledar.


Russian forces are continuing their advance inside Novomihailovka. Most of the village is clearly under Russian control, with Russian forces advancing inside the Mashinostroitel' dacha neighborhood, and the central part of the village. Russian forces have also taken a hill north of the village. It's fall seems to be a matter of time, and at this rate maybe not much time.


Zaporozhye.

Russian forces continue to gain ground in the eastern side of the Rabotino salient. The area is slowly collapsing.


Ukrainian BMP-1 getting hit near Rabotino.


Belgorod-Kursk border area.

Russian FPV drone hits a Ukrainian buggy near Lukashovka.


Russia has struck a Ukrainian BM-27 and transporter-loader vehicle inside Kharkov, and a munitions storage facility hiding in a shopping center. Ukrainian sources initially reported it as an attack against a civilian target but footage has come out showing the remains of the, and scattered UXO from the munition storage. Some sourcse claim the BM-27 is the upgraded Bureviy variant, however the remains aren't enough to positively identify.


Russia also hit the Kharkov college of airforce with a strike.


During recent strikes on Kharkov we've seen a similar circular flight path for some Russian inbounds. I wonder if they're intentionally trying to draw out Ukrainian air defenses.


Ukraine hit Belgorod and Kursk region with jet-powered small UAVs. Intended targets are not immediately clear. They also have continued firing MLRS into the city. In Kursk reportedly they hit a market and some residential buildings. In Belgorod residential buildings were hit.


Footage continues to leak out of the major fighting that took place here, and we appear to have confirmation of Ukrainian Blackhawks being used there.


Ukrainian IMR-2 getting hit by a Russian FPV drone near Popovka, and MBT near Aleksandrovka, Sumy region. Note, I think this is old footage from the heavy fighting.


A Ukrainian service member took a picture with his guntruck, hidden in an industrial building in Kharkov, and it shortly thereafter got hit by a Russian strike. It's unclear if the photo is the cause, but it might be.


Long-range Strikes.

A Ukrainian S-300 position near Zmiev, Kharkov region getting hit. I suspect Russia used strikes against energy infrastructure to draw out Ukrainian air defenses, and then hit them.


Russia hit Odessa with an Iskander strikes targeting the port area.


There are reports an exodus of population from Kharkov due to the loss of power to much of the city. Reportedly many fled to Dnepropetrovsk, driving up rents there.


Russian loitering munition taking out a Ukrainian P-18 in Kharkov region.


Recently Russia has hit 3 power plants in Ukraine and started targetting resource storage facilities. They hit the Srednedneprovskaya hydroelectric plant, Pridneprovskaya thermal plant, the TETs-5 in Kharkov, and fuel storage in Poltava.


Damage to the Zmievskaya thermal plant after a recent strike.


An unexploded Kinzhal warhead being dug out by Ukrainian EOD in Khmel'nitskaya region.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Other interesting bits.

Russian Lancet strikes have hit a new milestone. March hits a new monthly high with 176 strikes conducted. It's also the third month in a row where a new record for number of strikes is said. We can confidently say that there has been a production increase to make this possible.


Russian Msta-SM firing Krasnopol'-M2 rounds, somewhere in Ukraine. Despite prior announcements about the 2S35 going into service, we still have no evidence of them in service, making this Russia's most modern artillery piece.


Ukraine has received a batch of M577 command vehicles on the M113 chassis. It's unclear what the state of the equipment inside is, and what is being handed over. They may end up serving as part of the command element. They may end up getting used as regular APCs.


Ukrainian Mi-8s flying very low above the road. Hugging the ground is common for helicopters from both sides.


Ukrainian Caesar in action, location unclear.


Ukrainian Kub TEL somewhere near the front.


Ukrainian forces with a captured BMP-1AM.


Russian forces observing a captured Marder. I think it's the same one we've seen before.


Russia has deployed a T-72B3 with a massive EW set up on top of the roof cage, resembling almost the mast of a ship. Ukraine managed to captured the EW-stacked T-72B3 variant after it was knocked out in a recent attack.


A Russian T-80U with a pair of BMP-2s with extra-armor kits, in Lugansk region.


Russian Volga military train is getting up-armored, and remains active in the war zone.


Russian Z-STS MRAP with anti-drone cages, and another looking clean. Considerable numbers of these trucks were produced in '22, but since then they've been scarce in footage, suggesting that after an initial batch production may have stopped.


Russian forces are testing their own airburst FPV drones.


Ukraine is reportedly reorganizing the 153rd Mech Bde as a infantry bde due to lack of armored vehicles.


Reportedly Romania plans to resume production of artillery munitions, and systems.


France reportedly intends to hand over hundreds of VAB APCs to Ukraine. Ukraine had previously received some. While not particularly impressive, Ukraine badly needs any armored vehicles it can get, and this is a very logical move. One can only wonder why it took this long.


There are reports that Ukraine is producing 8 Bogdana howitzers per month. Personally I have my doubts. We're not seeing them in numbers that would support this.


Zelenskiy has apparently signed a new law lowering the age for mobilization from 27 to 25. This should make it possible to mobilize some additional personnel, but it's not just a matter of laws, it's also a matter of finding the people.


Russian reconstruction efforts in Mariupol' continue. Despite scandals, corruption, and shoddy work, Mariupol' will undoubtedly be a city. However the fate of places like Artemovsk/Bakhmut is unclear. Curiously enough it appears German firms are involved in construction in Mariupol'.

 
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