Middle East Defence & Security

[Big_Zucchini]

Like I also said, with looking also Arab Street situations and their government commitment to handle the rising temp, it is not the price that Israel can dream to give anymore. Not after Gaza destructions. Then again you are claiming to be an expert toward understanding Muslim Nations, then those from Muslim Nations it self. After all you are also continue claiming their position as just formalities.

Arab nations develop plan to end Israel-Hamas war and create Palestinian state

Deal could establish formal ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia

www.ft.com

Again, the price for normalisation is already increasing. Only Israel that still dreaming the price still the same.

The trend has always been a decrease in demands. Egypt demanded territories for its military surrender.
Jordan demanded some rights in Jerusalem but no longer demanded territories.
Bahrain, UAE, Sudan, Morocco - demanded political or military support.


IDF announces it withdraws from Shifa hospital after making hundreds of arrests.



Drone reportedly launched from Iraq, went through Jordan, and hit a building in Eilat (Israel's southernmost city).
It is interesting that the IDF managed to figure out the drone's route, yet did not intercept, or failed to intercept. Israel deploys 2 aerostats, including one in Dimona (Israel's south), which are capable of detecting low flying munitions.

Eilat naval base damaged by drone apparently launched from Iraq

Iran-backed militia claims to hit 'vital target' in Israel, shortly after explosion rocks southernmost city; no injuries caused

www.timesofisrael.com

EDIT: The drone appears to have hit a building in a navy base in Eilat, but there doesn't seem to be any more than external damage.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1774754170832028110

This baby is Shalhevet Pass, a 10 month old baby girl that was murdered in 2001 (not 2002). Her hit was ordered by Fatah - the Palestinian Authority's ruling party and the party of current president Mahmoud Abbas. It is important to understand that these are the people Israel is expected to, and likely, to cooperate with to form a new government in Gaza. It is perhaps the least bad option, but is still a bad option. Just to ground any expectations.
The Pay for Slay program is partially financed by US financial assistance and was expected to be at the center stage of US efforts to revitalize the PA but for some reason there is silence on the issue.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1774602352856821970

Many American commentators at this point would say Israel can engage in a "hearts and minds" approach and it'll surely succeed, because it worked (not always) for them in the middle east. Thing is - Israel does engage in a "hearts and minds" approach, but even if it were to work with the same efficiency as it had for the US, it still heavily relies on permanent presence - something Israel cannot afford.

 

[2007yellow430]

The trend has always been a decrease in demands. Egypt demanded territories for its military surrender.
Jordan demanded some rights in Jerusalem but no longer demanded territories.
Bahrain, UAE, Sudan, Morocco - demanded political or military support.


IDF announces it withdraws from Shifa hospital after making hundreds of arrests.
View attachment 51247


Drone reportedly launched from Iraq, went through Jordan, and hit a building in Eilat (Israel's southernmost city).
It is interesting that the IDF managed to figure out the drone's route, yet did not intercept, or failed to intercept. Israel deploys 2 aerostats, including one in Dimona (Israel's south), which are capable of detecting low flying munitions.

Eilat naval base damaged by drone apparently launched from Iraq

Iran-backed militia claims to hit 'vital target' in Israel, shortly after explosion rocks southernmost city; no injuries caused

www.timesofisrael.com

EDIT: The drone appears to have hit a building in a navy base in Eilat, but there doesn't seem to be any more than external damage.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1774754170832028110

This baby is Shalhevet Pass, a 10 month old baby girl that was murdered in 2001 (not 2002). Her hit was ordered by Fatah - the Palestinian Authority's ruling party and the party of current president Mahmoud Abbas. It is important to understand that these are the people Israel is expected to, and likely, to cooperate with to form a new government in Gaza. It is perhaps the least bad option, but is still a bad option. Just to ground any expectations.
The Pay for Slay program is partially financed by US financial assistance and was expected to be at the center stage of US efforts to revitalize the PA but for some reason there is silence on the issue.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1774602352856821970

Many American commentators at this point would say Israel can engage in a "hearts and minds" approach and it'll surely succeed, because it worked (not always) for them in the middle east. Thing is - Israel does engage in a "hearts and minds" approach, but even if it were to work with the same efficiency as it had for the US, it still heavily relies on permanent presence - something Israel cannot afford.

I guess you don’t understand the term “last straw” but you’re there. Despite speaking the proper terms your (Israel) acts differently.

Art

 

[Big_Zucchini]

I guess you don’t understand the term “last straw” but you’re there. Despite speaking the proper terms your (Israel) acts differently.

Art

Acts differently how?

 

[2007yellow430]

Acts differently how?

The amount of dead civilians, the restrictions on food aid. That’s why the USA is thinking about withholding weapons. The world is watching. 1.5M people starving is the last straw. I’m sure you’ll respond with no we aren’t. But you are and it’s the last straw. Watch what happens.

Art

 

[Big_Zucchini]

The amount of dead civilians, the restrictions on food aid. That’s why the USA is thinking about withholding weapons. The world is watching. 1.5M people starving is the last straw. I’m sure you’ll respond with no we aren’t. But you are and it’s the last straw. Watch what happens.

Art

I could say my dog is green but it doesn't make it green. I'll entertain this, I think it's fun.
Oh wise one, do tell me - what set of actions can Israel do right now to change the situation and make it agreeable to you?
And how would that change the current reality?

 

[2007yellow430]

I could say my dog is green but it doesn't make it green. I'll entertain this, I think it's fun.
Oh wise one, do tell me - what set of actions can Israel do right now to change the situation and make it agreeable to you?
And how would that change the current reality?

It’s probably too late. Should have listened to Biden. As for reality. Time will tell who’s right. Give it six months.

Art

 

[Big_Zucchini]

It’s probably too late. Should have listened to Biden. As for reality. Time will tell who’s right. Give it six months.

Art

So you think Israel is doing some things wrong but cannot come up with any alternative?
Do you often provide criticism without a solution? Because that's something people naturally tend to ignore.

Alright I'll make it easier, just to see if this is something you can honestly answer.
Imagine I repeat my question, but this time it's October 7th, right after the invasion.

 

[2007yellow430]

It’s probably too late. Should have listened to Biden.
Art

So you think Israel is doing some things wrong but cannot come up with any alternative?
Do you often provide criticism without a solution? Because that's something people naturally tend to ignore.

Alright I'll make it easier, just to see if this is something you can honestly answer.
Imagine I repeat my question, but this time it's October 7th, right after the invasion.

You don’t get it. The essentially indiscriminate bombs of essentially all residences was the first mistake. I know you’ll say it wasn’t but it was. It’s evident from the damage. Israel should have attacked with troops. Many would have helped. Instead it went the easy way.

it’s done now.

wait and see.

art

 

[Big_Zucchini]

If these 2 tweets are true, this is a significant breakthrough. Israel needs the US's approval to create political breathing space, and in return I imagine the US demanded a more relaxed operational plan to not hurt Biden during election season. Regardless of political games, this is a necessary step. Rafah is said to contain about 4 of the remaining 6 pre-war battalions (more likely recruited since then, but they no longer fight as battalions).
After Hamas is dealt with in Rafah, Israel will have cleared all areas of significant Hamas presence and can consider Gaza mostly liberated, after which humanitarian relief agencies and alternative government options can begin operating across the entire strip.
Previously it was said that a Rafah op will likely begin around April 9th (after Eid) - early May. So far these are mere estimates. A few weeks will be needed at the very least.
Until then, the IDF will have to prepare the area with aerial bombardments on likely Hamas positions.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1774932412331438537

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1774936333867254048

 

[Big_Zucchini]

You don’t get it. The essentially indiscriminate bombs of essentially all residences was the first mistake. I know you’ll say it wasn’t but it was. It’s evident from the damage. Israel should have attacked with troops. Many would have helped. Instead it went the easy way.

it’s done now.

wait and see.

art

Ok now that's already shaping up to be an answer. I have a few questions:
1. So you say Israel should have avoided air power and utilized ground troops alone, right?
2. If that's your opinion, how do you propose to realize this? Ground troops going door to door? Armored columns as physical cover for troops?
3. And another thing I wonder - why would you expect Israel alone to conduct a purely ground operation when in current and past wars, the entire NATO and other allies operated as combined arms task forces? i.e. with air elements.
4. Do you think there is no way to conduct a combined arms operation that involves air elements such as strike, in an environment like Gaza?

It is, after all, a defense forum, not a political forum. So I'd really like to discuss how you think such an operation might be feasible from a technical point of view.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

There are reports that allege the IDF struck a WCK vehicle in which 4 staff were killed. The IDF in turn said it will investigate it swiftly (it needs to, those are foreign nationals).
EDIT: Sources now say 7, it isn't clear if all are WCK.
I wonder why the local government is excused from conducting such investigations.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1775045393568399799

Hamas statement on the matter. It's curious that Hamas released such a statement, because often they don't comment unless something serves their propaganda.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1774938710510838257

EDIT: Twit appears to not load properly, so here's a screenshot:


This twit is correct. WCK is indeed considered the most productive aid organization in Gaza, and the IDF has every interest to both protect them, and if it was truly a friendly fire incident then investigate to provide compensation and prevent future ones.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1775049475989348384

To illustrate WCK's importance to Israel. About 60% of total aid via NGOs is through WCK.


This is said to be the WCK vehicle that was hit:


I agree with this assessment and would like to add more:
1. Single fragment seen to the left of the main hole but otherwise 0 fragmentation damage.
2. Windows are perfectly intact, seemingly not suffering either fragmentation damage or crushing (from explosion) damage.
3. Hole has burn marks but no internal burn damage can be seen.
4. Non detonating missiles e.g. Hellfire variant R9X (which Israel is not known to operate) create kinetic effects that would enlarge the hole significantly to ensure kill.

Therefore I assess that the blast did not occur either above or inside the vehicle, but perhaps under the vehicle. The blast also appears quite directional (and upwards), so I assess this was some anti vehicle explosive device.
The IDF does not lay mines in Gaza, let alone anti vehicle ones, within areas of operation, so this is very likely a Hamas/PIJ device.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1775068666637459470

EDIT:
Eylon Levi, former (suspended) spox for Israel, expresses the Israeli public and military consensus - an IDF strike on a WCK vehicle, if true, is treated as a friendly fire incident. This is because unlike politicized organizations like UNRWA, WCK is actually doing true humanitarian work.
EDIT2: Investigation concluded. IDF took responsibility.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1775096937202766034

 

[Big_Zucchini]

In more middle easty news, Erdogan apparently wants to mend ties with Israel.

'Anti-Israel talk was for political reasons': Turkey looking to improve relations with Israel

A Turkish diplomat said President Erdogan was attacking Israel due to "political considerations in the local elections in Turkey."

www.jpost.com

It's no secret that Turkey has a unique approach to foreign policy. Its ability to isolate matters of policy and be hostile (with someone else) on one issue and friendly on another, with each having little to no bearing on one another, is remarkable. But here's one downside to this. Playing political games with other nations, e.g. alienating them for the sake of elections, is a finite resource. We know Turkey is trying to build capital in Gaza for its effort to lead the Arab world. But one of Israel's core principles for foreign involvement in Gaza is de-radicalization. Israel cannot entrust that mission to a country that periodically flip-flops between being BFFs with Israel and comparing it to Nazi Germany.

It is all too sad for Erdogan that he's now losing support, evident in the results of local elections. Perhaps his policies are now deemed too hawkish by the general population, and being friendly with Israel and the US may be an attempt to climb down from that tree.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

This is a good thread also analyzing the WCK incident. He believes the burnt vehicle and the one with the hole in the roof might be the same vehicle, and asserts there are pieces of evidence that in a normal strike would be highly improbable to say the least.
If the deceased are indeed from the burnt vehicle, the fact that they're completely recognizable and their bodies are intact - does not align with the extensive damage this vehicle took.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1775074775133561166

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Despite the severe oddity that is the BDA of these vehicles (I assume multiple since 7 casualties), the IDF has acknowledged the strike and expressed condoleces. It is described as a tragic accident.
As of right now, I couldn't find the official statement on any official channel.

Israel acknowledges killing 7 aid charity workers in ‘tragic, unintentional’ airstrike

World Central Kitchen halts Gaza ops after 'unforgivable' Israeli bombing; victims' countries demand answers; PM says will 'do everything' to prevent recurrence; White House 'heartbroken'

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[2007yellow430]

Ok now that's already shaping up to be an answer. I have a few questions:
1. So you say Israel should have avoided air power and utilized ground troops alone, right?
2. If that's your opinion, how do you propose to realize this? Ground troops going door to door? Armored columns as physical cover for troops?
3. And another thing I wonder - why would you expect Israel alone to conduct a purely ground operation when in current and past wars, the entire NATO and other allies operated as combined arms task forces? i.e. with air elements.
4. Do you think there is no way to conduct a combined arms operation that involves air elements such as strike, in an environment like Gaza?

It is, after all, a defense forum, not a political forum. So I'd really like to discuss how you think such an operation might be feasible from a technical point of view.

like 9/11, they could have gotten assistance, but even without they had more than enough troops. Hard work, much higher casualties but doable, instead they chose to bomb.

Art

 

[Big_Zucchini]

like 9/11, they could have gotten assistance, but even without they had more than enough troops. Hard work, much higher casualties but doable, instead they chose to bomb.

Art

You say it would be much higher casualties - which I agree with. But why is that a better alternative to a combined arms operation that involves bombing?
If we look at the tactical level alone, and disregard the political considerations that dragged the GWOT for so long - an exclusively ground operation would take much longer. So 2nd order consequences like disruption of daily life, induced hunger and lack of necessities, would all be far greater than a deadlier (to receiving side) campaign that could, from a practical standpoint, end much more quickly.
Is 2X casualties immediately, really better than X casualties now and X casualties later (as direct and indirect consequences)? To me - the end result in terms of casualties is the same, but the population can start rehabilitating much sooner.

 

[2007yellow430]

You say it would be much higher casualties - which I agree with. But why is that a better alternative to a combined arms operation that involves bombing?
If we look at the tactical level alone, and disregard the political considerations that dragged the GWOT for so long - an exclusively ground operation would take much longer. So 2nd order consequences like disruption of daily life, induced hunger and lack of necessities, would all be far greater than a deadlier (to receiving side) campaign that could, from a practical standpoint, end much more quickly.
Is 2X casualties immediately, really better than X casualties now and X casualties later (as direct and indirect consequences)? To me - the end result in terms of casualties is the same, but the population can start rehabilitating much sooner.

it’s better because far less civilian casualities. The disregard of that consequence is why everyone is angry.

Art

 

[Big_Zucchini]

it’s better because far less civilian casualities. The disregard of that consequence is why everyone is angry.

Art

There is no disregard for that consequence. The calculus is different. You see the first order issues, but there are 2nd and 3rd order issues that are only aggravated by your proposal.

 

[2007yellow430]

There is no disregard for that consequence. The calculus was different. You see the first order issues, but there are 2nd and 3rd order issues that are only aggravated by your proposal.

im sure the calculus was difference. It goes to the value of Palestians lives. The folks in charge did not hold the value of them. Hence the method of attack.
the deaths of the folks providing aid isn’t going away. it’s the last straw I suspect. Now the civilians in Gaza will starve. There will be consequences, I suspect.

Art

 

[Big_Zucchini]

im sure the calculus was difference. It goes to the value of Palestians lives. The folks in charge did not hold the value of them. Hence the method of attack.
the deaths of the folks providing aid isn’t going away. it’s the last straw I suspect. Now the civilians in Gaza will starve. There will be consequences, I suspect.

Art

Yet no western country has fought a war without heavy reliance on air power - so they also all lack humanity and didn't care about the enemy population? If so, why do we apply a unique standard to Israel?