Middle East Defence & Security

[Big_Zucchini]

IDF reportedly conducted strikes on 1,200 targets from the air in Lebanon since operation Swords of Iron began:

https://www.israeldefense.co.il/en/node/61495

Additionally, it conducted strikes on 3,100 targets from the ground. Hezbollah has also fired an unprecedented amount of rockets into Israel yesterday, approximately 100.
Israel receives diplomatic support from Germany, somewhat the UK and France, and primarily from the US which is also its chief supplier. These relations are, unfortunately, quite fragile. The current Israeli administration has a tendency to go rogue, and general western disregard for the catastrophic humanitarian situation in Israel (daily attacks on Israeli civilians, hundreds of thousands internally displaced) only alienates the general public, leading to pressure from more mainstream sectors to disregard American and European requests.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennet summarizes Israeli public opinion quite well. It matters little what is one's political orientation - the public does not take well foreign political intervention, even if it is primarily critical of their political opponents.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1768307925607452974

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Since the appropriate thread is locked, I will post it here.

ISW report that the IDF concluded an operation in Shifa. I have not seen any other reports saying that explicitly. What I do know is the IDF has been doing earth work inside the Shifa compound for unknown reasons. According to the IDF, it's now facilitating aid into Shifa again, which might indeed mean the military aspect of the Shifa operation has either ended or slowed down significantly, with now 800 reportedly apprehended and 170 terrorists terminated, including significant amounts of PIJ leadership.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1771570315128107456

In this map by CT and ISW, we can see quite clearly the location of the jetty used by the US and international orgs for aid distribution, and as I explained earlier - its connection to the new road the IDF constructed in northern Gaza to split it from the rest of the strip.

Some have speculated in the past that Israel would cut the strip somewhere and transfer the Palestinians to the central and southern areas. While logistically logical as the IDF has manpower shortages (shorter border - less manpower), but this is not what happens in reality. Gazans are now flowing back north and occupying their homes.



New stats based less on speculation and more on actual, quantifiable data, show the current level of destruction in Gaza is less severe than thought, with 35% of buildings reportedly "damaged". Around half of those reportedly damaged are labeled as destroyed or severely damaged, and the other half moderately damaged. The total amount is ~88,000 buildings, and the total amount of damaged housing units is ~120,000, or about 1.4 apartments per building, which is very low. This can either show that Gaza lacks verticality (which is not true), or that strikes are extremely precise, damaging specific parts of the building while keeping the rest intact.


The author also brings an additional stat -> combatant to civilian ratio of anywhere between 1:1.5 and 1:1. However it is not clear what the source of this statistic is.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1771458623991930900

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Pro-Palestinians:
"Israel Jenoside. Indiscriminate bombing."

IDF:
*Going door to door.*

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1772148221394985132

 

[Ananda]

Harris warns Israel of ‘consequences’ over Rafah invasion

US Vice-President Kamala Harris said she was 'ruling out nothing' if Israel went ahead with threats to attack Rafah in the Gaza Strip

www.newarab.com

Seems more Leading Democrats call Rafah assault as Biden Administration warning to Israel, as line not to be cross. Will see how Israel will react on this.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Harris warns Israel of ‘consequences’ over Rafah invasion

US Vice-President Kamala Harris said she was 'ruling out nothing' if Israel went ahead with threats to attack Rafah in the Gaza Strip

www.newarab.com

Seems more Leading Democrats call Rafah assault as Biden Administration warning to Israel, as line not to be cross. Will see how Israel will react on this.

Netanyahu does not want a Rafah op. It is very likely that opposition to a Rafah op is generally a sign of opposition to Netanyahu. This, I believe, is a gross misunderstanding of Israeli culture. A sound strategy would favor the exact opposite approach, in my opinion.

Netanyahu wishes to delay a Rafah op indefinitely to postpone elections. A military operation will draw a clear line between the high intensity and low intensity portion of warfare, as the public wishes to see him ousted at the end of the intense stage. Other than Rafah, military operations in Gaza are already low intensity with Hamas mostly destroyed, and local clans taking up much of the power vacuum. Thus, to declare the war has ended its high intensity stage, the IDF must conclude an operation in the last remaining Hamas stronghold - Rafah.

By drawing international opposition to a Rafah op, Netanyahu can simultaneously present himself as the protector of Israel against foreign meddling powers, and justify a delay "until political factors permit it".
Had foreign powers demanded a Rafah op, Netanyahu might have been forced to authorize one, thus achieving a significant milestone in bringing forth his removal from power via early elections.

It is possible they may oppose a Rafah op to paint him as the one that cannot dismantle Hamas, at the cost of alienating the Israeli public and nurturing local extremism, but that is a much riskier lower reward approach as it only brings Netanyahu a smaller step forward toward removal from power, and ultimately costs them Israel's public support and the lives of many Palestinians and Israelis alike.

 

[Ananda]

‘Not enough’: Why the US did not veto a Gaza ceasefire resolution at the UN

Analysts say US decision against vetoing the UN measure signals Biden’s growing frustration with Israel’s PM Netanyahu.

www.aljazeera.com

https://www.state.gov/u-s-abstention-from-un-security-council-resolution-on-gaza/

How far Biden want to shown his administration "dissatisfaction" with Netanyahu seems now on continues trend. This abstaining on UN Security council, is big diplomatic stance on the possition Israel right for self defense. As Netanyahu put publicly agreeing on cease fire is against Israel right for self defense.

Trump warns Israel ‘losing support’ for Gaza war, with public relations ‘in ruin’

GOP nominee believes pics of Gaza strikes fueling antisemitic backlash in US, says he would have responded to Oct. 7 as Israel did but urges to 'finish it up,' while mum on hostages

www.timesofisrael.com

While Trump as ussual giving 'greyish' massage. Saying Netanyahu has to wrap it up fast, can be seen asking Netanyahu pull back or Giving him blessing to go to Rafah and then pull back.

Either way there're shown signals from both sides political spectrum in US for Israel to give 'closure' soon on Gaza operation.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Israel reportedly preparing for Rafah operation in mid April or early May.

Report: Israel preparing for Rafah ground operation in mid April or early May

* * *

www.timesofisrael.com

According to recent reports, Israel will soon start "preparing the ground for an incursion", which is said to be on April 9th at the earliest (after Eid al Fitr, meaning after Ramadan), or early May at the latest, and is also said to last between 4-8 weeks.
I assume 4-8 weeks refers to the intense part of the operation, followed by some form of delegation of power and minimal presence.

Western nations are currently pressuring Israel to drop the Rafah op as it would essentially remove Hamas's last stronghold, itself largely, in my opinion, due to significant muslim populations in the west which support Hamas, and a general indifference of the general population to the specifics of how Israel conducts the operation.
Israel's reluctance to disclose details about a Rafah op could be interpreted as a bluff, but it seems that with Hamas's refusal to back down from its demand to end the operation entirely, Israel is left with little actual options beside a military solution. There is nothing positive to be said about this vagueness. The public should know the government's general strategy.

On one hand it can be argued that current western policy, driven by popular demand, ultimately hurts its ability to influence Israel in the future which increasingly disregards western demands it deems irrelevant (such as calls for ceasefire before hostages are released).
On the other hand, it can be argued that these demands are made just to cater to a local audience, and Israel is expected to ignore them.

A rafah operation will be the final main segment of the ground operation in Gaza. Intense fighting has ceased in other parts already. This means that the day-after plans brought forward by Israel's different political factions and Israel's allies, can only be truly enacted after a Rafah operation ends and are at high risk of long term failure if Rafah is not cleared first.
However, it is worrying that there seems to be no publicly known developments supporting a day-after policy other than short term delegation of power to local clans.
There seems to be a near consensus on the need of incorporation of some moderate Arab/Muslim actor to manage the Palestinians and serve as an intermediate between them and Israel. The UAE is a prime candidate, but at this point I believe it's likely we'd have heard of some developments if there were. I am confident the Mossad and Shin Bet are at least advancing some aspects of this. Azerbaijan is also a less talked about candidate, and Israeli-Azeri cooperation is generally more secretive.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

I'm in awe at the explosion of this lad:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1773419442044637507

Good thread on the IDF's creation of a kilometer-deep buffer zone inside Gaza.
Briefly, the IDF has been demolishing buildings and other obstructions within 1 km from the previous border to set up a deeper buffer zone. The demolitions occurred in areas cleared by the IDF, and to prevent easy access to the buffer area, he claims the IDF has demolished buildings as far as 1,500 meters from the border, although he acknowledges he does not know under what circumstances they were demolished.
He also claims the new Netzarim corridor will likely permanently separate northern Gaza from the rest, and will be manned by the IDF with the intent of monitoring movement between the two sides.

It is important to note that this demonstrates that Israel is currently setting the ground for containment rather than occupation. Control over the Rafah corridor (aka Philadelphi), and Netzarim will effectively increase the total border area to be controlled, with narrow passages requiring especially larger troop concentrations to increase safety. However, this would only exacerbate the issue that contributed to the October 7th massacre - lack of on-station troops. It would be strategically wise for Israel to decide on measures that would significantly shorten the total border area.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1773303682014019762

Damn they're paving an actual road okay.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1773408145404039320

Islamic Jihad terrorist details his actions on October 7th, including the rape of a little girl which was later taken along with her mother by 2 Hamassies.
Testimonies such as this are collected for a future legal procedure popularly referred to as the "Nukhba Trials". It is said to be the most complex legal procedure since the Eichmann trial which ended in his execution (despite Israel having no capital punishment). It isn't known what the justice system will decide for them, but I assume the capital punishment will be used in this case for at least some of them.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1773448212507959389

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Several Arab states to take active security role in Gaza.

Israel said advancing plan for Arab peacekeepers to secure Gaza aid deliveries

Reports say proposed force to be staffed by troops from 3 unnamed Arab countries at peace with Israel, would be charged with protecting aid convoys from pillaging

www.timesofisrael.com

The power vacuum in Gaza has been partially filled by local clans, but that is not a tenable situation. Eventually some wider movement will rise to take on these clans and assume power over the entire strip - unless further steps are taken to replace the clans before a revived Hamas can. Already we're seeing how the clans are struggling when their primary task is just to protect aid convoys and ease the humanitarian situation.

Next to head the Strip? Gaza's most influential clans

Various powerful families in the Strip have the means to control large areas of Gaza while opposing Hamas, but fear of repercussions could be an obstacle to their cooperation with Israel

www.ynetnews.com

Some Arab state is widely expected to take the role of intermediary between Palestinians and Israel (like Egypt is for Israel and Hamas), as well as a spiritual leader and a de-radicalizer. Now it seems Israel may seek multiple states' involvement in a more active manner - protecting aid convoys.
I assume this is only a temporary arrangement and finally only one state will be chosen to have a dominant role. I have previously expressed my assessment it will be the UAE, with Mohammed Dahlan (member of the small Dahlan clan in Gaza) as a likely successor to Abbas, or his equivalent in Gaza.

Although Israel will ultimately choose who gets to sponsor the Gazan Palestinians, it is clear some have begun working long before that on securing emotional/political capital in Gaza. Here we can see the UAE, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are the largest donors of humanitarian aid to Gaza by a significant margin, together accounting for a whopping 64% of the total aid!
It is likely Israel will give Saudi Arabia a role in addition to the UAE as part of a normalization deal, and it is very unlikely Turkey will get anything in light of their trend of radicalization against Israel.


The PA plays the political game correctly and works to appease the US. As part of this, some appointments were made, and now the PA works to reform its National Terror Budget, otherwise known as Pay For Slay initiative. It is an incentive program that provides salaries according to the number and severity of casualties inflicted upon the Jews.
A Palestinian that manages to kill a dozen Jews could be a millionaire (in dollars) within a few years. Last time I checked the budget is about $250 million.
PA leader Mahmoud Abbas, PhD in holocaust denial, may be trying to appease the US to prevent any demands for his ousting, and cement himself as a reliable leader that can be allowed to die of old age.

PA in final stages of talks with US to reform ‘pay-to-slay’ policy – sources

One of the holdups has been receiving approval from Israel, which is viewed as critical for getting Congress on board; source fears initial leak of story may torpedo negotiations

www.timesofisrael.com

US approves transfer of war materiel to Israel. This includes a whole wing of F-35 (25 jets), 1,800 Mk84 bombs, and 500 Mk82 bombs.

US okays transfer to Israel of 2,300 bombs within months, 25 F-35s in years – report

Washington Post says weaponry to be provided amid growing US concerns over Gaza campaign and plans for Rafah offensive

www.timesofisrael.com

At least the F-35 wing was requested by Israel a while ago, unrelated to the war. But these may be critical for Israel now more than later as platforms get worn.

 

[Ananda]

https://www.axios.com/2024/03/29/gaza-arab-security-force-israel-proposal

The Arab states again reinstate their position, their troops in the ground has to be getting invitation by PA and part of the path toward two state solution. This is clear Arab position that any solution to this mess has to involve PA, and will not involve on any endeavor that will not create two state solution as final solution. Getting invitation first from PA shown their position that Gaza is part of State of Palestine.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

https://www.axios.com/2024/03/29/gaza-arab-security-force-israel-proposal

The Arab states again reinstate their position, their troops in the ground has to be getting invitation by PA and part of the path toward two state solution. This is clear Arab position that any solution to this mess has to involve PA, and will not involve on any endeavor that will not create two state solution as final solution. Getting invitation first from PA shown their position that Gaza is part of State of Palestine.

Ahhh yes, the ever insistent on formalities and conventions Arab states.

Although far from foreign media eyes, the PA's own security apparatus is also guilty of quite a few terror attacks, and perhaps this should ground some of the hopes for a technocratic and prosperous Gaza in the "day after". Terrorism will be reduced, but won't go away.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1774313238131322993

Israel and Indonesia were reportedly on track for normalization before October 7th. It may resume after the war ends.

Israel, Indonesia were on track to normalize ties before Oct. 7: sources

Israel and Indonesia had planned to announce the establishment of diplomatic relations in October 2023, a move that was delayed by the Hamas terror attack on Israel and subsequent war in Gaza, three sources involved in the negotiations told Jewish Insider. Israel’s then-Foreign Minister Eli...

jewishinsider.com

 

[Ananda]

yes, the ever insistent on formalities and conventions Arab states.

That's their position, and that's what they sell to their constituents. They already put the price for engaging in the ground with two state solution. You can say it is formalities, but their constituents will not see that. Let's see who's will they're following.

Israel and Indonesia were reportedly on track for normalization before October 7th. It may resume after the war ends.

Not after this, no administration in Indonesia can survive if they goes to normalize with Israel, without clear two state solutions in hand. This is seems the thing that I already told in you in last thread. No Muslim nation or Muslim majority nation will normalize with Israel after this. Not until clear two state solutions in hand.

South American countries recall ambassadors and cut ties with Israel over war with Hamas

Bolivia’s leftwing government cuts diplomatic ties with Israel, alleging crimes and human rights abuses in Gaza, as Chile and Colombia recall ambassadors

www.theguardian.com

Even some Catholics majority nations break relationship with Israel due to Gaza destructions. Yet you somehow still believe the Muslim ones will normalize with Israel? Not without solutions to Palestinian statehood, especially after this.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Not after this, no administration in Indonesia can survive if they goes to normalize with Israel, without clear two state solutions in hand. This is seems the thing that I already told in you in last thread. No Muslim nation or Muslim majority nation will normalize with Israel after this. Not until clear two state solutions in hand.

South American countries recall ambassadors and cut ties with Israel over war with Hamas

Bolivia’s leftwing government cuts diplomatic ties with Israel, alleging crimes and human rights abuses in Gaza, as Chile and Colombia recall ambassadors

www.theguardian.com

Even some Catholics majority nations break relationship with Israel due to Gaza destructions. Yet you somehow still believe the Muslim ones will normalize with Israel? Not without solutions to Palestinian statehood, especially after this.

UAE, Sudan, and Bahrain normalized after "this" so yeah I'm sure the rest are not far behind.

 

[Ananda]

UAE,Sudan, and Bahrain normalized after "this" so yeah I'm sure the rest are not far behind.

Without Two State solutions after you kill tens of thousands Palestinian? Yeah you entitled to have your own dream.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Without Two State solutions after you kill tens of thousands Palestinian? Yeah you entitled to have your own dream.

We killed hundreds of thousands of civilians in 2014 and in other operations every couple years since then, so yeah statistically we're good.
And they all received a 2 state solution pledge when they signed the Abraham Accords.

 

[Ananda]

killed hundreds of thousands of civilians in 2014 and in other operations every couple years since then, so yeah statistically we're good.

Right, you keep up doing that, and see if your 'statistics' on International recognition still the same. Will see if simple 'pledge' will be enough after 'this', for the glorious Abraham accord. Keep dreaming that the asking 'price' for Abraham accord will still be the same.

It’s Time to Scrap the Abraham Accords

Continued Arab adherence to the Accords signals continued support for Israel amid its bombardment of Gaza.

time.com

Off course Israel and mostly Right Wingers going to say this is just some Arab and Leftist demand. They will cave in eventually. The mighty Jewish and Pro Israel lobby will win the day. Right, will see how much delusional and realism there is in there.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Right, you keep up doing that, and see if your 'statistics' on International recognition still the same. Will see if simple 'pledge' will be enough after 'this', for the glorious Abraham accord. Keep dreaming that the asking 'price' for Abraham accord will still be the same.

It’s Time to Scrap the Abraham Accords

Continued Arab adherence to the Accords signals continued support for Israel amid its bombardment of Gaza.

time.com

Off course Israel and mostly Right Wingers going to say this is just some Arab and Leftist demand. They will cave in eventually. The mighty Jewish and Pro Israel lobby will win the day. Right, will see how much delusional and realism there is in there.

Quote me on this exactly a year from now:
Once the war ends, normalization between Israel and other arab and muslim states will continue in full steam.

 

[Ananda]

Don't take credit if the full steam only happen with condition of Palestinian Statehood. Because that's the price right now.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Don't take credit if the full steam only happen with condition of Palestinian Statehood. Because that's the price right now.

Realistically they can only receive a pledge, not a full solution. They are all aware that for Palestinian statehood to happen, there must be a viable Palestinian leadership that works toward that goal, which I'm sure that by now none is delusional enough to think is going to happen. The only thing they can do in the meantime is hope Israel remains committed to a 2 state solution, and that in the future a new Palestinian leadership will rise that will choose peace.
As said before, others when signing the Abraham Accords were perfectly fine with just a verbal commitment to a 2 state solution and nothing more. For the UAE the price was mostly just the F-35 which they didn't get eventually.


Ismail Haniyeh's sister was arrested in Israel on suspicion of collaboration with terrorist organizations (Ismail Haniyeh is Hamas's leader).

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1774715467686432995

 

[Ananda]

said before, others when signing the Abraham Accords were perfectly fine with just a verbal commitment to a 2 state solution and nothing more.

Like I also said, with looking also Arab Street situations and their government commitment to handle the rising temp, it is not the price that Israel can dream to give anymore. Not after Gaza destructions. Then again you are claiming to be an expert toward understanding Muslim Nations, then those from Muslim Nations it self. After all you are also continue claiming their position as just formalities.

Arab nations develop plan to end Israel-Hamas war and create Palestinian state

Deal could establish formal ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia

www.ft.com

Again, the price for normalisation is already increasing. Only Israel that still dreaming the price still the same.