Hamas-Israeli War 2023

[Big_Zucchini]

Pier and Aid Stuff
There are talks right now about setting up a pier near Gaza that would allow additional aid flow. Nothing is set in stone yet, but I believe it is more talk than substance. Massive aid is already coming through the land crossings and airdrops. There is no identifiable shortage of aid in Gaza. Perhaps the idea is to flood Gaza with so much food that the black markets collapse, but that seems far fetched. Current reported levels of aid to Gaza suggest sufficient amounts are brought in to feed everyone well, excluding theft by Hamas and gangs.

This opinion piece explains some of the reasons for the disparity between the current level of aid, and wellbeing of Gazans:

Editor's Notes: 'There is no famine in Gaza' - comment

The United Nations said in February that more than a quarter of Gaza’s 2.3 million people were “estimated to be facing catastrophic levels of deprivation and starvation.”

www.jpost.com

On Hezbollah and Iran
Escalation of tensions and attacks between Israel and Hezbollah indicate that a confrontation is nearing, but I believe there is another angle to that. Iran has been pretty much sidelined, despite being in an open conflict with an international naval force near Yemen. Prior to the October 7th massacre, Iran was at a center stage due to its nuclear program and its crossing of numerous thresholds. It is possible that Iran may, instead of using Hezbollah as a deterrence against a strike on its nuclear program - will instead maintain the conflict on a low burner to keep Israel fixed on 2 fronts while it pursues nuclear weapons.
As long as Israel is not fully committed to Lebanon, it must maintain a ready reserve for that contingency, whereas initiating a conflict only after a strike on the nuclear program - will allow Israel to immediately recommit these forces to Lebanon. Hezbollah will lose the war regardless if it manages to initiate a surprise attack, and I assume Iran does not want to lose so many assets in such short time - nukes, Hezbollah, Hamas.

Stampede Incident Investigation
IDF concluded the investigation into the stampede incident and released the following infographics:

According to JPost, the investigation will be continued by an independent body, the FFAM (Fact Finding Assessment Mechanism).

 

[Big_Zucchini]

I personally believe the pier plan is an impractical political show. Does anyone believe otherwise and cares to explain why?

 

[Feanor]

I personally believe the pier plan is an impractical political show. Does anyone believe otherwise and cares to explain why?

I think we have too little information at this time. The fact that we aren't getting reports of starvation does suggest that there is enough food aid in principle, but shortages of medical supplies have been reported. Are these high-volume items? I think the real question isn't how to handle aid to Gaza but what the actual post-war settlement will look like. And so far the war isn't even over yet.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

I think we have too little information at this time. The fact that we aren't getting reports of starvation does suggest that there is enough food aid in principle, but shortages of medical supplies have been reported. Are these high-volume items? I think the real question isn't how to handle aid to Gaza but what the actual post-war settlement will look like. And so far the war isn't even over yet.

I am worried about post war strategy as well. Everyone has now released their vision - Lapid, Gantz, Netanyahu. But it's another thing entirely to follow it through. I'd expect to see early signs of a local coalition at least for the purpose of rebuilding Gaza first. For now what we have is gangs set up to take up the vacuum left by Hamas but that's just an intermediate solution.

 

[Feanor]

I am worried about post war strategy as well. Everyone has now released their vision - Lapid, Gantz, Netanyahu. But it's another thing entirely to follow it through. I'd expect to see early signs of a local coalition at least for the purpose of rebuilding Gaza first. For now what we have is gangs set up to take up the vacuum left by Hamas but that's just an intermediate solution.

Have they released their true plans? Or have they made noises for public consumption? I don't see any plan that's clear, actionable, and realistic. But perhaps I'm not well enough familiar with the details. Could you elaborate?

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Have they released their true plans? Or have they made noises for public consumption? I don't see any plan that's clear, actionable, and realistic. But perhaps I'm not well enough familiar with the details. Could you elaborate?

Lapid's plan:

Hamas-Israeli War 2023

Prominent opposition figure and former PM Yair Lapid writes about the grand plan for the day after the war (in Gaza). He says Israel does not have one, that it's not sexy, but it's necessary. Phase 1: Israel's high goals: Return of all captives and identifying all missing persons, eradication...

www.defencetalk.com

Netanyahu's plan:

Hamas-Israeli War 2023

Hamas tunnel was discovered directly under UNRWA's HQ. Philippe Lazzarini, current Commissioner-General of UNRWA, says UNRWA was unaware of this, despite the IDF previously inviting UNRWA officials to tour tunnels and explaining to them about the threat. Lazzarini himself was also invited, but...

www.defencetalk.com

Gantz's plan is not detailed but those familiar with his habits and rhetoric have concluded it's generally in line with the Lapid plan, and a close examination will show that Lapid and Netanyahu pretty much presented very similar plans.
I have little (i.e. no) faith in Netanyahu, but such a near consensus among all major political leaders is a telltale sign of reliance on advice from the security establishment. Even Netanyahu's version atypically contains very little political garbage.
Therefore I conclude that these are true plans. However, when it comes to giving the actual approval in the war cabinet (i.e. orders to the military and other authorities), Netanyahu is known to drag his feet to the absolute maximum. Although considered hawkish by outsiders, he is actually very dovish in the eyes of the Israeli public.

 

[Larry_L]

I personally believe the pier plan is an impractical political show. Does anyone believe otherwise and cares to explain why?

To take the politics out of it the UN could embrace this plan, quit their complaining, and bring in a multinational peacekeeping force. They could help to ensure that aid got to the people who need it, while slowly expanding a safe area devoid of Hamas operatives, getting a jump on the day after. The perfect situation for them to rebuild their relief agency while under international scrutiny.

 

[John Fedup]

To take the politics out of it the UN could embrace this plan, quit their complaining, and bring in a multinational peacekeeping force. They could help to ensure that aid got to the people who need it, while slowly expanding a safe area devoid of Hamas operatives, getting a jump on the day after. The perfect situation for them to rebuild their relief agency while under international scrutiny.

Multinational peacekeeping force, good luck with that. Not many competent militaries would want anything to with Gaza. The UN has zero credibility with Israel.

 

[koxinga]

Multinational peacekeeping force, good luck with that. Not many competent militaries would want anything to with Gaza. The UN has zero credibility with Israel.

The countries that would sign up (or even jump at it) under the UN banner are probably Muslim states such as Turkiye, Malaysia, Indonesia, Egypt etc because they have a vested interest to burnish their own reputations with their (Islamic) electorate. Israel would take a dim view of it.

The ones without a vested interest but credible/neutral or long time contributors (e.g say Poland, Georgia, Thailand, Singapore, Nepal) won't been keen due to continued violence and lack of clear roadmap.

 

[Meriv90]

When talking about UN peace corps consider how badly they are treated in the Lebanon and how useless we are as interposition force between IDF and Hezbollah.

If that scenario is already too much for countries with a lot of peacekeeping experience, Gaza is absolutely a no-go scenario.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

UN peacekeeping forces are notoriously incompetent when it comes to the middle east. I don't think Israel would let the UN anywhere near Gaza considering UNIFIL is still on record not even attempting to enforce UNSC resolution 1701 to remove Hezbollah's presence to north of the Litani (river in south Lebanon).

The countries that would sign up (or even jump at it) under the UN banner are probably Muslim states such as Turkiye, Malaysia, Indonesia, Egypt etc because they have a vested interest to burnish their own reputations with their (Islamic) electorate. Israel would take a dim view of it.

The ones without a vested interest but credible/neutral or long time contributors (e.g say Poland, Georgia, Thailand, Singapore, Nepal) won't been keen due to continued violence and lack of clear roadmap.

A good example is Jordan on the temple mount. For cultural reasons it requested to be a high authority on the Al Aqsa mosque via a local administrative branch called the Waqf. Israel granted it that request as part of the peace process.
Since then Jordan threads the line between competent management and provoking Israel into violent confrontation with Palestinian rioters. That's also not something we'd want in Gaza.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

First delivery by sea en route:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1768214600569241910

In Judea and Samaria (J&S), the IDF eliminated 446 terrorists since the start of operation Swords of Iron:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1768243926887023063

Former Gazan living in Israel decided to stab an Israeli, after which he promptly found out.
EDIT: The victim, a 50 year old Israeli man, has succumbed to his wounds.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1768268581819634171

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Preparations are being made for a Rafah op, judging by recent rhetoric and publications.
Recently, the IDF has been experimenting with new methods to direct aid to Palestinian civilians in a way that would mitigate some of its flow to Hamas. One option that's been talked about and which I believe I mentioned here, is to flood certain areas with aid in a way that would prevent the establishment of black markets around the aid. In some areas, the IDF may even closely secure aid shipments. Obviously this will not prevent Hamas from obtaining every bit of aid they need and the flooding may even increase Hamas's own stocks.
Back to Rafah. As was with the operations in northern Gaza and Khan Younis, Rafah will need to be evacuated of civilians. Many Hamassies will naturally disguise as civilians and move north, but a core will have to remain in Rafah which is exactly what the IDF is after. This is likely a question of when, not if.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1768356882790404193

 

[Ananda]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/15/politics/schumer-israel-speech-analysis/index.html

When Liberal but mostly Democratic base mainstream media like CNN already put article like this, then Israel present administration must know they face potential substantial opposition in US. Especially from Left or Center-Left democratic based. Seems Israel effort to call Pro Palestinian as Pro Hamas thus Pro Terrorist not working much on that population segments. After all they are not Pro Hamas but Pro Palestinian especially Palestinian civilians. No matter how much pro Israel try to sell, it's even not selling to some American Jewish segment.



Biden administration effort on this pier are part on getting supplies to Palestinian citizens. Clearly try to calm down not only some on his base, but also some of US Middle East allies. Let's see how this is going to sell to US Democrat base, as some portion of that increasingly critical in supporting Palestinian citizens.

Off course Netanyahu still have solid support from Right Wing base of Republican and Trump. So let's see how Netanyahu want to play this. Israel say that the US House majority leader is attacking their domestic politics. Well as if Netanyahu or his Jewish Lobby friends not doing the same.

Whatever it is, Israel must know by now, support for Palestinian civilians cause already touch the nerve of increasingly significant Democrat base. If not, they will not put that kind of speech in US House of Congress. Let's see how this political turn going to play.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

@Ananda I agree. The current internal discourse in the US is driven by the election season and thus Israel should not take any foreign policy related statements very seriously.

Well as if Netanyahu or his Jewish Lobby friends not doing the same.

After all they are not Pro Hamas but Pro Palestinian especially Palestinian civilians

That is interesting. I will consider that. We should definitely lump Israel and Jews together as you say. Makes targeting them more comfortable. But we should separate pro Palestinians from pro Hamas.

Anyway, some nice scenery:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1769205623915213078

 

[Ananda]

The current internal discourse in the US is driven by the election season and thus Israel should not take any foreign policy related statements very seriously.

Ahh yes, put it the your word on mine ? Please do, Israel should not be bother with any segment in US that increasingly Pro Palestinian, after all they are just bunch of Kids being folled by Hamas propaganda.

Keep that thought for your piece of mind.

We should definitely lump Israel and Jews together as you say.

I wonder where I say that ? Or now you are so desperate as turn out not all US Jews buy Israel line in this Gaza conflict. Are you so desperate to give keep your argument, now that has to put your words on mine?

On contrary in my post I clearly shown not all Jews buy Israel line. Perhaps you are now that desperate to lump Jews and Israel together.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

@Ananda I admit I do not understand half of what you're saying. If you want to make this into a religious rant, sure okay go ahead. But I'm telling you I'm not Jewish.

To avoid this merry go round, why don't we just establish a few things first? Well, you already know me and my opinion, so I'll ask you (you're free to ask me anything, even though you never bothered):
1. What is the end game for the not pro Hamas, but pro Palestine crowd as you describe them?
2. Why are most/all pro Palestine "activists" or protester also anti-Israel? Do you not see a convergence between pro Palestine and pro Israel ideologies?
3. Why is it that most pro Palestine "activists"/protesters engaged in blatantly anti-semitic activities such as attacking Jews (antisemitic hate crimes spiked globally, in some by hundreds or thousands of %), and denying 7/10?

 

[Ananda]

If you want to make this into a religious rant, sure okay go ahead. But I'm telling you I'm not Jewish.

Because all your post just try to rewrites others post on your opinion. Funny you tell my post as religious rant, as seems you are the ones that rewrite that. You are the ones that keep bringing religions on the arguments. Clearly bordering desprete on rewrite others opinion on your own.

The post simply:

1. US Democrats base increasingly shown numbers that are Pro Palestinians civilians cause, by not buying Israel policy of bombing and leveling civilians in Gaza.
2. Democrats leadership feel that, and begin to talk tougher possition for Biden Administration toward Israel current ones.
3. If Israel current administration did not like that, then they have to play with the other side of US Politics, and hope the other side can turn the tide.

What religious rant on that? except in your head. The post clearly talk about segment of US Jews that refuting Israel position on Gaza war. Seems you are the ones that try to reverse that opinion as religious rant. Talking time to time again you are not jews but keep bringing anyone that anti Israel policy as anti jews and anti semites. You are the one who bring everything counter to Israel as Regious Prosecution.

Which is increasingly desperate as Israel that keep selling line of Oct 7 card, while not admitted thousands Palestinians that been killed in years before. Trying to hide that the reason that drove Oct 7.

Calling lies on any argument that support Palestinian. Calling any Palestinians support as anti semitism, while not admitting and call lies on how Israel childern also being tought to destroy Palestinians.

So why are Pro Israel want to destroy Palestinians, Why the Right Wing Minister justifiable to call Palestinians as sub human, while Palestinians is anti semite to fight for their cause.

Clearly your agenda try to put Pro Palestinians are on Religious Rant bunch of people, has down to broken record. While Israel shown increasingly appetites for Palestinians blood as nobble cause.

When ‘nice Jewish boys and girls’ in the US first took up the Palestinian cause

According to historian Geoffrey Levin's book 'Our Palestine Question,' current divides over Israeli policy aren't new - they existed before American Jews fully embraced Zionism

www.timesofisrael.com

Perhaps this situations in your mind is just bunch of delusional Jews that hate themselves? Or are they religion traitors? Cause it could not happen right, after all you are that desperately try to lump jews and Israel together. Others are just anti semitics religious rants, if dare to shown Pro Palestinians stance.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Because all your post just try to rewrites others post on your opinion. Funny you tell my post as religious rant, as seems you are the ones that rewrite that. You are the ones that keep bringing religions on the arguments. Clearly bordering desprete on rewrite others opinion on your own.

The post simply:

1. US Democrats base increasingly shown numbers that are Pro Palestinians civilians cause, by not buying Israel policy of bombing and leveling civilians in Gaza.
2. Democrats leadership feel that, and begin to talk tougher possition for Biden Administration toward Israel current ones.
3. If Israel current administration did not like that, then they have to play with the other side of US Politics, and hope the other side can turn the tide.

What religious rant on that? except in your head. The post clearly talk about segment of US Jews that refuting Israel position on Gaza war. Seems you are the ones that try to reverse that opinion as religious rant. Talking time to time again you are not jews but keep bringing anyone that anti Israel policy as anti jews and anti semites. You are the one who bring everything counter to Israel as Regious Prosecution.

Which is increasingly desperate as Israel that keep selling line of Oct 7 card, while not admitted thousands Palestinians that been killed in years before. Trying to hide that the reason that drove Oct 7.

Calling lies on any argument that support Palestinian. Calling any Palestinians support as anti semitism, while not admitting and call lies on how Israel childern also being tought to destroy Palestinians.

So why are Pro Israel want to destroy Palestinians, Why the Right Wing Minister justifiable to call Palestinians as sub human, while Palestinians is anti semite to fight for their cause.

Clearly your agenda try to put Pro Palestinians are on Religious Rant bunch of people, has down to broken record. While Israel shown increasingly appetites for Palestinians blood as nobble cause.

When ‘nice Jewish boys and girls’ in the US first took up the Palestinian cause

According to historian Geoffrey Levin's book 'Our Palestine Question,' current divides over Israeli policy aren't new - they existed before American Jews fully embraced Zionism

www.timesofisrael.com

Perhaps this situations in your mind is just bunch of delusional Jews that hate themselves? Or are they religion traitors? Cause it could not happen right, after all you are that desperately try to lump jews and Israel together. Others are just anti semitics religious rants, if dare to shown Pro Palestinians stance.

Amazing. Are you going to address my 3 questions?

 

[Feanor]

@Ananda I admit I do not understand half of what you're saying. If you want to make this into a religious rant, sure okay go ahead. But I'm telling you I'm not Jewish.

To avoid this merry go round, why don't we just establish a few things first? Well, you already know me and my opinion, so I'll ask you (you're free to ask me anything, even though you never bothered):
1. What is the end game for the not pro Hamas, but pro Palestine crowd as you describe them?
2. Why are most/all pro Palestine "activists" or protester also anti-Israel? Do you not see a convergence between pro Palestine and pro Israel ideologies?
3. Why is it that most pro Palestine "activists"/protesters engaged in blatantly anti-semitic activities such as attacking Jews (antisemitic hate crimes spiked globally, in some by hundreds or thousands of %), and denying 7/10?

I'll take a swing at this. On point 1; even as coherent and well organized a state-level actor that Israel is, we don't have a particularly clear end game for them. Expecting a consistent and clear end-game from anti-Hamas but pro-Palestinian public is unreasonable. They likely don't have one, at least not one they can all clearly agree on and have worked out with some level of consistency. On point 2; the reason pro-Palestinian members of public might be anti-Israeli is because of the way Israel has treated Palestinians over the past 70 years. I'm not particularly pro-Palestinian, but even I take issue with the situation where Gaza doesn't get to be an actual independent country, but also don't get to be treated like citizens of Israel. To me this position on Israel's part is indefensible. People who are actually pro-Palestinian might take issue with many more things that Israel has done. I'm really wondering, do you genuinely not understand this? Or are you intentionally ignoring these very obvious reasons? Or is that "it's all Palestinian's own fault, Hamas is at fault for any dead civilians even if an Israeli bomb did the killing"? Because that's not a position this group of people is likely to share. On point 3; nice framing of the issue there. Let me try. Why are most pro-Israeli people so anti-Palestinian? See? I can ask unpleasant questions that presuppose facts not in evidence too. You want to claim that most/all pro-Palestine protesters or activists are anti-Semitic, do you have any statistics to back that up? For the record, most is over 50%. You would have to show actual engagement from a statistically significant sample group to be able to back up that claim. Mere statements or opinions wouldn't suffice to support the point you're claiming. I fairly certain you can't do so, making this another maximalist claim you've made with no real support. But I stand ready to be proven wrong.