The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Larry_L]

I don't know where to start today. I am sure both sides commit atrocities, but from the sources available to me because of my linguistic insufficiency, I see the Russians as barbaric. The following clip is of Russian soldiers executing surrendering soldiers. Warning: footage of live people becoming corpses.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1761809220167454841

I find this interesting, since it parrots Shogui in his report to Putin on Avdivka on minimal losses. To me it looks like politics are more important than soldiers.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1758710637994401809

The consensus seems to be that the Su-50U loss was result of friendly fire. Only the Ukrainians, and their allies can take comfort in that. I can only wonder how the Russian pilots and flight crew feel when they know that their best protection can kill them. It was stated recently that 75% of the aircraft Russia lost were reported as friendly fire. The following links are an overview of that incident from different sources. The first is the video many of you have seen with translation to English. The last is on the aircrew that went into eternal flight.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1761086281893687500

A quick Review of the Russian A-50-Fleet

Hello everybody!

xxtomcooperxx.substack.com

У збитому А-50 загинули 10 росіян, з них п’ять майорів – джерела

Екіпаж з 10 окупантів загинув у збитому 23 лютого російському літаку А-50у.

www.pravda.com.ua

Kyrylo Budanov is trolling the Russians again. He finishes with the statement; "I would not recommend to the civilian population to use the Crimean bridge." There is hype here, but also truth.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1761730677794291835

I don't know what conference this is. Possibly this is in the UN. Several of the countries that know Russia best give their views on Russian disinformation.

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1761467698855178556

https://twitter.com/glandsbergis/status/1761164490026983874?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Some more input from Tom Cooper from late last night. There is a bit on the A50-u and some on the front lines.

Ukraine War, 25 February 2024

Hello everybody!

xxtomcooperxx.substack.com

Another data point on losses. Zelensky states that 31.000 of their soldiers have lost their lives. This would be good news if true. Sadly this is probably a lower limit on an estimate.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1761818010661310832

Ukraine has targeted the Arkadia restaurant in Donetsk. They reported that there was a concentration of troops there.

https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1761456755215593472?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

 

[Feanor]

I don't know where to start today. I am sure both sides commit atrocities, but from the sources available to me because of my linguistic insufficiency, I see the Russians as barbaric. The following clip is of Russian soldiers executing surrendering soldiers. Warning: footage of live people becoming corpses.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1761809220167454841

I'm wondering if this is Wagner mercenaries. Their record involves warcrimes in Syria, and it would make sense if they were involved again.

The consensus seems to be that the Su-50U loss was result of friendly fire. Only the Ukrainians, and their allies can take comfort in that. I can only wonder how the Russian pilots and flight crew feel when they know that their best protection can kill them. It was stated recently that 75% of the aircraft Russia lost were reported as friendly fire. The following links are an overview of that incident from different sources. The first is the video many of you have seen with translation to English. The last is on the aircrew that went into eternal flight.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1761086281893687500

*A-50U. But otherwise I agree with your sentiment. It's far worse for Russia if this was friendly fire. It's an indicator of problems that run deep indeed

Another data point on losses. Zelensky states that 31.000 of their soldiers have lost their lives. This would be good news if true. Sadly this is probably a lower limit on an estimate.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1761818010661310832

Zelensky lying again. It isn't worth taking anything he says at face value.

 

[Fredled]

Zelensky lying again. It isn't worth taking anything he says at face value.

Yes. Everybody knows the number is much higher.

Note that a December 2023 UK intel report put the number of Russian KIA at 70K. link
This is, to the contrary, overly conservative (much less than witnessed).
So to maintain a ratio of less than 1 to 2, Zelensky had to come up with the number of 30K. He couldn't give a number that would look equal to that of the Russians. IMO, it would be smarter to stick with their principle that they don't disclose the losses of the Ukraine forces.

There are reports that Ukraine has again shown interest in acquiring Australia older Abrams 1, this has been refused apparently

It means that Ukrainians like these tanks.
The Aussies reject the demand because these tanks have to be donated, and this will cost Australia a lot of money. Earlier, these tanks had to be sent first to the US to be refurbished. Now this can be done in Poland for a fraction of the cost. Still, Australia is not exactly next door. The cost of transportation can be very significant. (That's one of the reason why the American left so many vehicles in Iraq.)

If Ukrainians offered to buy them and cover the cost of transportation and repair, it would be different.

 

[vonnoobie]

Yes. Everybody knows the number is much higher.

Note that a December 2023 UK intel report put the number of Russian KIA at 70K. link
This is, to the contrary, overly conservative (much less than witnessed).
So to maintain a ratio of less than 1 to 2, Zelensky had to come up with the number of 30K. He couldn't give a number that would look equal to that of the Russians. IMO, it would be smarter to stick with their principle that they don't disclose the losses of the Ukraine forces.


It means that Ukrainians like these tanks.
The Aussies reject the demand because these tanks have to be donated, and this will cost Australia a lot of money. Earlier, these tanks had to be sent first to the US to be refurbished. Now this can be done in Poland for a fraction of the cost. Still, Australia is not exactly next door. The cost of transportation can be very significant. (That's one of the reason why the American left so many vehicles in Iraq.)

If Ukrainians offered to buy them and cover the cost of transportation and repair, it would be different.

Not really. Transport cost's are relatively straight forward, Sure outsized odd cargo so may have to pay a premium but to transport entire fleet, maybe a couple million tops? And the program costs for getting these M1A1's was about $550 all up so not exactly a lot of money so if government chose to donate them we wouldn't lose out on much.

 

[John Fedup]

Not really. Transport cost's are relatively straight forward, Sure outsized odd cargo so may have to pay a premium but to transport entire fleet, maybe a couple million tops? And the program costs for getting these M1A1's was about $550 all up so not exactly a lot of money so if government chose to donate them we wouldn't lose out on much.

Curious, what sort of vetting is necessary for sea carriers wanting to bid for shipping M1A1 tanks besides the actual transport?

 

[Feanor]

It means that Ukrainians like these tanks.

Ukrainians like any remotely modern tanks they can get their hands on. Ukraine is badly short on MBTs. They've committed their reserves, riding the M1s, to the fighting west of Avdeevka, and it's not going well. Ukraine has lost the first line of villages (Severnoe-Lastochkino-Stepovoe) and is now engaged in a desperate defense on the southern part of the second line (Tonen'koe-Orlovka-Berdychy) with Russian forces inside Orlovka and engaging on the outskirts of Tonen'koe.

 

[vonnoobie]

Curious, what sort of vetting is necessary for sea carriers wanting to bid for shipping M1A1 tanks besides the actual transport?

Specifically I can not say, Locally it would require an export permit, Proper international paper work, when it comes to shipping their are several options that are available, two off the top of my head ARC shipping, US based RoRo operator mainly shipping across atlantic but does transhipment globally including to Australia but their ships quite large, Or give the RN a call and ask to loan out a Point class, large enough to make the journey with one stop to refuel along the way and about right sized to take full fleet.

The only issue that stops us giving them away because value of them or delivery is not it is the GoA slow walking in the replacement. Something the US could deliver in full in 12 months they have spread out over years and seeing IOC wont be until 2025 we are not in a position to spare any, especially with such a small fleet.

 

[Fredled]

Direct admition from the official Ukrainian press website that Russians are winning new positions and assaulting others further west.
Russians storming Orlivka from three directions after Ukraine pulls back from Lastochkyne
__________________________

Not really. Transport cost's are relatively straight forward,

They are more complicated to ship that regular container. You can't stack them up. Then you have to load and unload with special cranes. Then move them on trucks...
But if the reason is that replacements are late, it also makes sens.

 

[KipPotapych]

So now we cannot rule out sending the troops to Ukraine because we must do everything for Russia to lose.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday he refused to rule out sending ground troops to Ukraine, but said no consensus existed on the step, at a meeting of 20 mainly European leaders in Paris convened by Macron to ramp up the European response to the Russian military advances inside Ukraine.

Protecting France’s strategic ambiguity he said “there is no consensus to officially back any ground troops. That said, nothing should be excluded. We will do everything that we can to make sure that Russia does not prevail.”[…]

He said: “We must do whatever we can to obtain our objective.”

It is the first time there has been such open discussion of nation states collectively looking at providing troops to support the depleted Ukrainian military manpower.[…]

Among those present at the meeting were the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, the UK foreign secretary, Lord Cameron, the Polish president, Andrzej Duda, and the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte. Relatively junior officials attended from the US and Canada.[…]

The objective, he said, was to ensure Ukraine can negotiate peace and return to full territorial sovereignty.

Macron refuses to rule out putting troops on ground in Ukraine in call to galvanise Europe

French president admits no consensus exists on such a move as he urges fellow European leaders to take action rather than wait for US aid

www.theguardian.com

This, of course, is insanity, but not surprising at all. In the past few months we went from Ukraine threatening Crimea in order to negotiate to holding the line to getting ready for war with Russia (because Russia is planning an attack in 3-8 years) to possibly going to war with Russia (but not the Russian people) in Ukraine. How crazy is that?! All in the name of avoiding a big war with Russia.

The last paragraph there is also rubbish - the objective of negotiating peace and returning the borders of Ukraine to pre-2014. Ot looks like Zelensky bug is contagious.

 

[Vivendi]

Macron is a joke...! "do whatever we can". Unfortunately France has NOT done "whatever we can". True, they have shipped some very useful equipment like the SCALP missiles however they are so far behind most other NATO countries. Even worse: France has actively blocked attempts at the EU level of purchasing ammunition from non-EU countries, the main motivation of course being to protect French jobs in the ammo industry. Disgusting. The need for ammo in Ukraine and EU is so big that they can do both: Emergency purchase of ammo from outside of EU and at the same time stepping up EU ammo production.

Macron should look to Denmark: they recently decided to donate ALL their artillery to Ukraine. PM says Denmark to donate all its artillery to Ukraine (kyivindependent.com)

Also: Instead of "boots on the ground", perhaps they should consider a no-fly zone over Ukraine... It is also risky but much less risky than soldiers on the ground.

 

[KipPotapych]

^ I definitely think it would be beyond stupid for France to provide “all the got” to Ukraine, but the same article suggests that he now supports the idea of sourcing the artillery ammo from elsewhere:

He admitted Europe had failed to meet its over-optimistic promise to provide Ukraine with a million rounds of ammunition. He said the provision of ammunition was now the “top priority”, pointing to gunpowder shortages creating bottlenecks. But he asserted European countries had room for manoeuvre both to increase production in Europe, and also to purchase surplus ammunition stocks outside Europe to hand to Ukraine, a proposal advanced by the Czech Republic.

 

[Vivendi]

^ I definitely think it would be beyond stupid for France to provide “all the got” to Ukraine, but the same article suggests that he now supports the idea of sourcing the artillery ammo from elsewhere:

He admitted Europe had failed to meet its over-optimistic promise to provide Ukraine with a million rounds of ammunition. He said the provision of ammunition was now the “top priority”, pointing to gunpowder shortages creating bottlenecks. But he asserted European countries had room for manoeuvre both to increase production in Europe, and also to purchase surplus ammunition stocks outside Europe to hand to Ukraine, a proposal advanced by the Czech Republic.

Thanks, I missed that part...

Well that's good news. Although it should have happened much earlier. It's frustrating that so many European politicians are always making these decisions so late... it was clear months ago that Europe would not be able to provide million rounds of ammo.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

So now we cannot rule out sending the troops to Ukraine because we must do everything for Russia to lose.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday he refused to rule out sending ground troops to Ukraine, but said no consensus existed on the step, at a meeting of 20 mainly European leaders in Paris convened by Macron to ramp up the European response to the Russian military advances inside Ukraine.

Protecting France’s strategic ambiguity he said “there is no consensus to officially back any ground troops. That said, nothing should be excluded. We will do everything that we can to make sure that Russia does not prevail.”[…]

He said: “We must do whatever we can to obtain our objective.”

It is the first time there has been such open discussion of nation states collectively looking at providing troops to support the depleted Ukrainian military manpower.[…]

Among those present at the meeting were the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, the UK foreign secretary, Lord Cameron, the Polish president, Andrzej Duda, and the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte. Relatively junior officials attended from the US and Canada.[…]

The objective, he said, was to ensure Ukraine can negotiate peace and return to full territorial sovereignty.

Macron refuses to rule out putting troops on ground in Ukraine in call to galvanise Europe

French president admits no consensus exists on such a move as he urges fellow European leaders to take action rather than wait for US aid

www.theguardian.com

This, of course, is insanity, but not surprising at all. In the past few months we went from Ukraine threatening Crimea in order to negotiate to holding the line to getting ready for war with Russia (because Russia is planning an attack in 3-8 years) to possibly going to war with Russia (but not the Russian people) in Ukraine. How crazy is that?! All in the name of avoiding a big war with Russia.

The last paragraph there is also rubbish - the objective of negotiating peace and returning the borders of Ukraine to pre-2014. Ot looks like Zelensky bug is contagious.

The goal of helping Ukraine by sending troops is a good one. I do have a few thoughts:
1. Talking solely about ground troops is odd. Alone, NATO ground troops hardly offer anything Ukraine's own lack. Instead, they offer an integration capability with other branches for a true all-domain warfare. But that in itself would require the active participation of all said branches, which would be far more significant than the presence of one's own ground troops. In fact, it may be argued that integrating aerial and other strategic assets with Ukrainian ground troops will yield greater results overall, with the exception of some western special forces for specific limited ops.

2. Direct NATO involvement in Ukraine does not necessarily entail any consequence regarding Article 5. Article 5 dictates that any member of the alliance, under certain circumstances, is entitled to seek the aid of all other members. But no threshold level of aid is defined. Members can contribute as much, or as little as they want. NATO is also not limited to self defense, and members may provide aid regardless of the application of any article. As such, in reality, NATO's defense mechanisms are very much centered around free will, i.e. the autonomy and policies of its members, rather than a set of strict rules.

3. Deployment must be preceded by mobilization. And troop mobilization must be preceded or accompanied by industrial mobilization. Russia certainly mobilized its industry, and there may be some critical defense items in which Russia may have entered 2024 on a better footing than they entered 2023, meaning net gains. For example Russia mobilized allied support and gained a whopping 5:1 advantage in artillery in certain areas of the front, ultimately driving its successful offensives (if human losses are unimportant). The west has not. Most NATO members still spend less than 2% of GDP on defense which is what is considered the level necessary to retain a capability. Only a few spend more than 3%-4% which is necessary to build capability.
That is not mobilization.

4. For a plethora of reasons, NATO+EU and other nations want this war to end. Most wish it to end on favorable terms, but merely ending it has merit. Of course, to really end it - it must end in a way that inherently discourages a restart of the war. Direct western involvement can do wonders in that regard - push Russia out of areas it occupied, help Ukraine set up robust defenses, assist Ukraine in building an armed force up to western specs, and get out. As it currently stands, the war is set to last at least several more years. It may be more financially wiser to help Ukraine end it quickly with an X amount of resources, than to spend several times those resources keeping Ukraine alive.

 

[Vivendi]

The Netherlands will contribute 100 million EUR to purchasing ammo for Ukraine: Dutch contribute €100 million to Ukraine ammunition plan - DutchNews.nl

In addition a 10-year security agreement between Ukraine and the Netherlands will soon be signed, reflecting similar agreements between Ukraine and the UK, Germany, France and Denmark. The Netherlands to conclude a 10-year security agreement with Ukraine | News item | Defensie.nl

As I have stated previously: unless Russia is able to make significant gains in the near future, they will struggle more and more since so many countries are committing to supporting Ukraine for at least the next 10 years, and are increasing weapons production. Even lack of US support will ultimately be compensated for. Perhaps not until 2026, but it will happen eventually. Unfortunately the near future will be extremely hard on Ukraine before Europe has ramped up production. Hopefully the US house of representatives will approve the latest aid package.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Oskol Front.

Russia has taken out it's first Archer howitzer, presumably from the 45th Arty Bde.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Следом за сожжённым танком Abrams армия России впервые уничтожила шведскую САУ Archer — самое современное, скорострельное и точное орудие НАТО. САУ ликвидировал наш "Ланцет" . Ранее Минобороны Швеции заявляло, что передали 8 своих новейших самоходных артиллерийских установок ВСУ. Конфликт на...

t.me

Dambiev

Поражение 155-мм шведской колесной САУ Archer ВСУ ударом барражирующего боеприпаса "Ланцет" Статистика "Ланцетов": https://lostarmour.info/tags/lancet

t.me

Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Russian forces are inside Krasnoe advancing from the north-east. However these advances are made possible by control of the hills north of the village. Hill 206 south-east of the village is still in Ukrainian hands, and will likely need to be taken if Russia is to hold Krasnoe firmly.

Рыбарь

❗️ Битва за Часов Яр: продвижение ВС РФ в Красном обстановка к исходу 26 февраля 2024 года На Бахмутском направлении ВС РФ методично наносят удары по позициям украинских формирований в Часов Яре и Красном. ▪️После закрепления на высотах к северу от Красного и юго-восточных окраинах, российские...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/02/26/20240226230756-3f5f84d5.jpg

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 733: Situation west of Bakhmut: Russian Army made small advances inside Ivanivske in the street of Sadova and are fighting with Ukrainian Army in the Artem street. Map: [...

t.me

Russian strikes against Chasov Yar continue. It's effectively the near-rear area for forces fighting from Andreevka all the way to Grigorievka.

Colonelcassad

Часов Яр. Фронт уже недалеко.

t.me

A Ukrainian Strela-10 getting hit by a lancet strike from the 177th MarBde, south of Artemovsk/Bakhmut. This unit has been rarely mentioned in the current war unlike their more illustrious bretheren from the 810th and 155th MarBdes. It's unclear if this is because this unit has been less active or has performed worse.

Colonelcassad

На южном фланге артемовского направления морские пехотинцы 177 отдельного гвардейского полка из состава Южной группировки войск поразили Ланцетом комплекс ПВО ВСУ "Стрела-10" @verumreactor

t.me

Avdeevka.

Russian forces are continuing to push westward out of Avdeevka. Severnoe has fallen and Tonenkoe and Orlovka are contested. There are also reports of Russian forces on the outskirts of Berdychy. So far the arrival of Ukrainian reinforcements has failed to stabilize the situation. Russian flags have recently been raised in Stepovoe and Severnoe.

Рыбарь

❗️ Авдеевское направление: Штурм Орловки и Тоненького обстановка по состоянию на 17:00 26 февраля 2024 года ВС РФ продолжают развивать успех после взятия Авдеевки, наступая на нескольких участках фронта. На северном фланге идут удары по Бердычам и Семеновке, где сохраняется присутствие...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/02/26/20240226170857-296b39a6.jpg

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Первые кадры из освобождённого Северного под Авдеевкой Полк мобилизованных 1453 развернул свои флаги. Об освобождении важного поселка ранее заявили в Минобороны и украинцы. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️«Чёрные гусары» «️тважных» подняли флаг над Степовым у Авдеевки! Посёлок Степовое (Петровское) штурмовали и взяли в тяжелейших боях бойцы 15-й и 21-й бригад ЦВО при поддержке спецназа группировки "Центр". Вчера парни из 15-й бригады уничтожили здесь первый Abrams. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Продвижение ВС РФ к западу от Авдеевки к началу 27.02.2024 Карта https://t.me/z_arhiv В ближайшие дни линия фронта здесь будет меняться достаточно динамично.

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 733: Situation west of Avdivka (11:00 PM): Russian Army advanced west and northwest of Stepove reaching the outskirts of Berdychi. In addition, troops reached the outskirts of Orlivka from two axis. On the other hand, clashes with Ukrainian Army continue at Tonenke...

t.me

Russian forces sweeping Severnoe. Note the speaker is reporting small groups of Ukrainian soldiers trapped inside the village.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian forces retreating from Lastochkino.

Colonelcassad

Отход остатков сил ВСУ из Ласточкино.

t.me

Russia has taken out the first M1 near Avdeevka. Reportedly it was hit by an FPV drone, and finished off by an RPG team from the 15th Motor-Rifles.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Первый Abrams сожгли у Авдеевки Чёрные гусары «️тважных»! ▪️Бойцы 15-й бригады поразили танк дроном-камикадзе и добили гранатомётом. ▪️Сегодня операторы Zala выследили американский танк M1A2 "Абрамс" на северо-западе от Авдеевки. Он ехал в Бердычах по улицам Центральной и Мира на северо-восток в...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Первый Abrams, сожжённый 15-й бригадой «️тважных» у Авдеевки Качественное фото с пульта Мавика бойцов 15-й Отдельной мотострелковой бригады ЦВО. "По фото из вражеского дрона видно, что на M1A1 SA Abrams сработали вышибные панели для БК. Возможно, еще и МТВ загорелся", - комментируют вражеские...

t.me

Рыбарь

⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️ ЭКСКЛЮЗИВ Горит Абрамс, хорошо горит.

t.me

bmpd

❗️Первый пораженный M1A1SA Abrams на Авдеевском направлении. На видео можно заметить активное выгорание пороховых зарядов в забашенной нише танка. Также в этом районе уже были замечены данные танки. Видео: @SolovievLive Военный Осведомитель

t.me

An interesting video of a Russian FPV drone attempting to strike a Bradley. Note the EW effects. It's unclear what the ultimate outcome was, but given the angle of approach, a successful strike could mean the destruction of the IFV. Of course the bit at the end suggests that the drone might have gone down.

Повёрнутые на войне

25 февраля, утро, ВСУ начали драп марш из Ласточкино под натиском наших воинов, на помощь врагу попыталась выехать НАТОвская Бредли... Ну а расчёт "Упыря" организовал американской машине должный приём. Работаем ✊

t.me

A Russian Kornet strike on a Ukrainian bradley near Ocheretino near Avdeevka. Note the claim is that the strike is from 9kms away. The video is clearly closer then that but it doesn't appear our observers is at the launch location for the ATGM. Russian Kornet-D1 has a reported range of 10 kms, but it's a beam rider so it's use at those ranges especially by ground forces is questionable.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russia has published a successful strike on a PzH-2000. The location is reportedly 20 kms from the front line, north of Avdeevka.

Colonelcassad

Продолжение вчерашней серии удачных страйков. Уничтожение немецкой 155-мм "Панцергаубицы". Видео https://t.me/lost_armour/2164

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russia has begun using anti-UAV pickets to cover advancing troop columns as they move in the near rear.

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vk.com

It appears Russia has hauled away the knocked out T-80 we saw with the cage armor.

Все по 風水

БРЭМ и Т-80 ВС РФ - все по феншую :)

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Mar'inka area.

We have confirmation of Russian forces inside Krasnogorovka from the south. You'll note no similar offensive attempt is being made from the east. This is likely due to strong Ukrainian fortifications facing that way. Russia forces also inching forward inside Georgievka. Note Krasnogorovka is a town larger then Mar'inka, with a pre-war population of ~15k. For comparison Mar'inka had ~10k and Avdeevka ~30k.

Рыбарь

❗️ Битва за Красногоровку обстановка к исходу 26 февраля 2024 года На Донецком направлении российские войска продолжают наступательные действия и расширение зоны контроля к западу от столицы Донецкой Народной Республики. ▪️В Красногоровке ВС РФ продвинулись в частном секторе в районе улицы...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/02/26/20240226234247-bf72e287.jpg

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 733: Situation west of Donetsk city: During the last 24 hours Russian Army took control over a series of plantations between Marinka and Paryzkoi Komuny pond and entered in the first streets (Shevchenka and Paryzkoi Komuny) of Krasnogorivka, where clashes with...

t.me

Russian forces are also gaining ground inside Novomihailovka, namely in the hangars on the southern part of the village.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 732: Situation southwest of Donetsk: Russian Army took control over the rest of the hangars south of Novomykhailivka and part of the Timiriazieva street. Map: [...

t.me

More footage of one of the two knocked out Leo-2A4s near Pobeda.

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vk.com

Russia took out a Krab howitzer near Kurakhovo. This town is likely the ultimate target of the westward push out of Mar'inka but it's still over 10kms away and likely Krasnogorovka will have to fall, along with considerable Russian advances along the main highway in order for this to become a reality.

Colonelcassad

Накрытие польской 155-мм САУ "Краб" в районе Курахово. Стоит напомнить, что на "Крабах" как правило сидят польские экипажи. Видео https://t.me/lost_armour/2163

t.me

Rabotino Salient.

Additional Russian advances are reported west of Verbovoe even as a Ukrainian counter-attack prevents Russia from capturing the center of Rabotino itself. Russian forces are currently in the southern part of the ruins and on the western outskirts. Due to active combat, and a relatively rapid pace, there is considerable fog of war regarding where exactly the areas of control are.

Рыбарь

❗️ Ореховский участок: продвижение в районе Вербового обстановка по состоянию на 14.00 27 февраля 2024 года ❗️Российские подразделения наступают в районе «Работинского мешка». По некоторым еще не подтвержденным данным, противник якобы утратил контроль над Работино — в самом селе и к западу...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/02/27/20240227141452-82a1cb67.jpg

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 732: Situation on Zaporizhia front: After some hours of combats Russian Army failed to consolidate the positions inside Robotyne and retreated to the southern trenches, which were completely taken. Ukrainian Army recovered some position, but the locality is partially...

t.me

Another destroyed Stryker inside the Rabotino salient. Note it was probably lost during the summer offensive.

Dambiev

Минус еще один украинский БТР M1126 Stryker американского производства возле н.п. Работино на Запорожском направлении.

t.me

Russian strikes.

Russia has stepped up SEAD efforts on this front, striking a P-18 radar operating out of a former air defense unit near Nikolaev.

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vk.com

Russia also hit a NASAMS launcher near Malyshevka, by Zaporozhye.

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vk.com

Russia has struck a Ukrainian train station in Konstantinovka. According to some sources this was done as a military train was unloading, but no train can be seen in the footage. Other sources claim it was a staging area for Ukrainian forces.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Кадры ракетного удар по ж\д вокзалу в Константиновке, где разгружался воинский эшелон ВСУ Также украинцы опубликовали видео с последствиями удара. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

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vk.com

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vk.com

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Кадры с последствиями ночного удара наших войск по "ВСУшному вокзалу" в Константиновке Сообщается, что вокзал использовался как место дислокации личного состава и техники ВСУ. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russia struck the Ocean factory in Nikolaev. Reportedly Ukraine was producing unmanned boats there.

Colonelcassad

Докладываем по страйкам на территории 404: Результат удара по заводу "Океан", где производились БЭКи, за 7 февраля г. Николаев - снимок 1, видео с горящего завода и снимок 2. Снимок 3 - результат удара 15.02.24 по аэродрому Староконстантинов, судя по поступающей информации подловили самолеты...

t.me

Interesting tidbits.

Two Russian lancet teams are getting hit. These are no doubt high priority targets for Ukraine.

Colonelcassad

Для понимания значения "Ланцетов". Противник прекрасно осознает роль данных БПЛА по уничтожению техники ВСУ, поэтому постоянно пытается отслеживать команды запускающие "Ланцеты", не жалея дорогостоящие ракеты для HIMARS и MLRS для отслеживания машин операторов. На кадрах 2 эпизода за...

t.me

Russian lancet strike hits a Ukrainian Bogdana howitzer.

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vk.com

Ukraine is using UAVs to try and remove Russian river mines on the Dnepr.

bmpd

Использование ВСУ беспилотных летательных аппаратов для разминирования речных путей подвоза у левого берега Днепра от выставленных российской стороной якорных речных мин ЯРМ. Дрон (видимо, большой мультикоптер) подцепляет в воде и оттаскивает в сторону 13-кг мину ЯРМ.

t.me

A column of 3 Russian T-62s with roof cages but no K-1, and presumably no thermals, somewhere. It's unclear where they are headed. The 61st Armor Repair Plant has overhauled quite a few T-62s but only a few have shown up in the war zone. It's possible they're replacing newer T-72/80 variants in conscript staffed units inside Russia.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Очередные новинки едут в стоковом виде. Не понятно, куда пропадает продукция «103 БТРЗ» в Атамановке (https://t.me/btvt2019/3037).

t.me

A Russian BM-21 with an armored cabin and anti-drone cage on the launch tubes.

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vk.com

A Russian armored truck with an anti-UAV EW set up. Note the positioning of the antenna is suboptimal.

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vk.com

The captured Bradley Russia has hauled away has apparently already undergone testing against Russian 30mm AP rounds, and is now put on public display.

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vk.com

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Захваченный украинский M2A2 Bradley передвигается по территории России. При чем его даже немного испытывали, видно надписи об испытаниях 30-мм снарядами 3УБР6 и 3УБР8. Но похоже дальнейшие испытания оказались не так важны как пиар шоу.

t.me

Russia has rearmed a captured Ukrainian Gyurza-M with 2M-3M guns, and it's now in service with the Black Sea Fleet under the name Razboynik.

Dambiev

Артиллерийский катер "Разбойник" Черноморского флота. 09 февраля 2024 г. Бывший украинский малый бронированный артиллерийский катер "Аккерман", брошенный своим экипажем в Бердянске в исправном состоянии и захваченный российскими войсками как трофей в марте 2022 г. После ремонта и перевооружения...

t.me

Dozens of T-54s reportedly in Evpatoriya, Crimea. We haven't seen this many pulled from storage until now.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Указывается как свежее. Евпатория. Давно столько Армат Т-62 в одном месте не светилось…

t.me

A Russian Lancet catapult set up on a truck. This of course is the future.

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vk.com

Foreign fighters continue to show up in Russian reporting. We have allegedly a Japanese soldier and a whole group from Cuba.

"Интербригадовцы"

Кубинские интернационалисты, как лет 40 назад... Вообще давно нужно было формировать "интербригады" по примеру республиканской Испании - желающих сражаться с империализмом по миру хватит не на одну дивизию.

afirsov.livejournal.com

⚔️ СВАРЩИКИ

Китайский военкор общается с японскими добровольцами, ДНР Теперь вы видели всё ⚔️ СВАРЩИКИ – ПОДПИСАТЬСЯ

t.me

Russian volunteers have delivered donated ERA tile kits to Russian forces in Zaporozhye.

ПриZрак Новороссии

Так. Ещё 900 КДЗ благополучно доехали до Запорожья (218 танковый полк). Плюс к тем 600, что отправлены были неделей раньше. Таким образом, мы им обеспечили 5 танков. И плюс ещё 5 танков им обеспечил предприниматель Марк из Воронежа. Итого - 10 танков.

t.me

 

[Fredled]

Czech Republic, Slovakia, Sweden, and Poland,
Spain, Italy
Belgium
NATO
...have said they will not send troops to Ukraine.

So, I wonder who Fico was talking about when he said that some countries has proposed to do so.
My whife just joked and said that Macron will his send his Legion, that gay, LOL. She was spot on! (about the Legion not about Macron being gay). France's Foreign Legion is used precisely for that purpose: Involvment in foreign countries. Most of the Foreign Legion is composed of non-french nationals, that's why it's so convenient. They are all contract soldiers. It would be no surprise that many of them have already been hired in the Ukrainian forces, officialy on an individual basis, de facto leaving the Foreign Legion but with the approval of their hierarchy.

There are already several thousands of foreign fighters in the Ukrainian forces. (the number of 40K have been circulating) It's hard to imagine that they all came without the direct or indirect support, or at leat the approval of their governments.
The presence of french soldiers have been witnessed. And even seen at Azovstal, according to some rumours. Now there are so many migrants in France that french doesn't mean much.

Maybe Macron is just preparing the public to make official an existing situation?

1. Talking solely about ground troops is odd. Alone, NATO ground troops hardly offer anything Ukraine's own lack. Instead, they offer an integration capability with other branches for a true all-domain warfare. But that in itself would require the active participation of all said branches, which would be far more significant than the presence of one's own ground troops. In fact, it may be argued that integrating aerial and other strategic assets with Ukrainian ground troops will yield greater results overall, with the exception of some western special forces for specific limited ops.

Yes. It would make sens to operate air defense systems in western regions, F16 maintenance, intel sharing, and stuffs that would require long training for Ukrainians but could be executed immediately by European personel.
Sending assault troops would not make sens, given the casuality rate on the front line.
IMO such troops are out of question.

NATO is also not limited to self defense, and members may provide aid regardless of the application of any article. As such, in reality, NATO's defense mechanisms are very much centered around free will, i.e. the autonomy and policies of its members, rather than a set of strict rules.

I don't agree. NATO is a purely defensive organisation. It can deploy troops to another country only if this country has agressed one of its member. Sending NATO troops (in the context of a NATO mission) to Ukraine to attack Russian troops would require that Russia first attacks a NATO country. Putin may do it. Yet as long as he didn't, NATO can't legally interfere in Ukraine.

NATO doesn't forbid some of its member to send troops in combat zones against another non-NATO country, but in this case, NATO can't provide assistance if the non-NATO country strikes back at the NATO member. Because it would not be a defensive context and this would makes NATO an agressor partner.
In other words, if a NATO country sent troops to Ukraine to fight against Russian, this country would lose NATO protection.

3. Deployment must be preceded by mobilization. And troop mobilization must be preceded or accompanied by industrial mobilization.

God forbid, such deployment will never happen because that would mean WW3. If we are talking about deplying several hundred thousands soldiers there, the Russians will use tactical nukes. They won't hesitate a single second.

It may be more financially wiser to help Ukraine end it quickly with an X amount of resources, than to spend several times those resources keeping Ukraine alive.

Not only financialy but humanely. But before proceeding we should provide Ukraine with Taurus, ATACMS, F16 and shells. And finaly walk the talk. Sending troops on the ground is premature as long as we didn't do this first.

IMO we should send troops only after the end of the war or once a ceasefire has been agreed with Russia. Our mistake in 2014 was that we didn't send troops there when we signed the Minsk Agreement. As a result nobody had respected it.
This itme, if there is an agreement or an end to hostilities, we should be present militarily.

If Ukraine is forced to cede territories to Russia, Putin will have to accept NATO troops on the new border between Ukraine and Russia he has chosen.
If we don't send troops to protect the new or the existing borders after a peace agreement, war will resume shortly after.
___________________________

More admissions from the Ukrainian side that the situation is very difficult.

 

[Feanor]

It appears Ukraine's lines west of Avdeevka are crumbling. I likely won't have time to do an updated today but preliminary reports indicate Russia has overtaken everything except Berdychy where a Ukrainian withdrawal is happening. Note confirmation so far is scarce, and there's a considerable amount of fog of war. But the situation looks bad for Ukraine and Russia is continuing a high level of strikes using gliding bombs.

 

[Fredled]

The best strategy for the Russians is to attack will full forces right now before Ukraine receive new ammos and weapons. Everything will depend on the speed of the deliveries. Europeans are talking too much and are unable to take immediate action.

 

[Ananda]

More admissions from the Ukrainian side that the situation is very difficult.

It's can be seen with Zelensky coming to Riyadh and talk with MBS. Only few leaders outside Xi's or Modi that potentially can have sway toward Putin. Zelensky clearly hoping MBS is one of them.

 

[Feanor]

The best strategy for the Russians is to attack will full forces right now before Ukraine receive new ammos and weapons. Everything will depend on the speed of the deliveries. Europeans are talking too much and are unable to take immediate action.

I don't know that this is true. I don't see another pile of several thousand armored vehicles and hundreds of tanks and artillery pieces that are going to get handed over to Ukraine over a period of ~12 months or so. Meaning new ammo and weapons will be relatively scarce for a while to come. Meanwhile Russian bombing tempo is still rising. I think Russia will have a much better chances of gaining ground if they attack behind a rolling wave of strikes. This is what they did in the push through northern Avdeevke and are continuing to do west of it, and the results are devastating. If Russia can do two locations with this density of strikes they will have more success then if it's just one. If they spread the strikes out in a thin line, it will be less effective. Right now for example Russia can't commit this kind of airpower to the fighting around Mar'inka, or Novomihailovka. As a result alongside some success they've also had some spectacular failures. Over time quantity becomes quality. 200 per day averages, comparable to the US in ODS are not inconceivable at this point, but they are not yet a reality. At the same time Russia is losing men and materiel in this offensive. Committing those resources now could mean getting less gain for them. If a definite large pile of additional aid is incoming, that might indicate an opportunity window. But it might also indicate that it's better to save resources to deal with those additional assets.