NZDF General discussion thread

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
  • The only US service to use such platforms are the Coastguard and they use it for SAR.
Just a slight point of correction here. The USCG does operate the HC-27J Spartan in a aeronautical SAR role, whilst the HC-144A/B Ocean Sentry (and Minotaur?! apparently named for the USN mission system architecture known as Minotaur, which is now being fitted to the USCG fixed wing aviation fleet) are medium range maritime patrol/surveillance aircraft. The HC-144A/B do also have roles and capabilities in aeronautical SAR but that is by no means their only role for the USCG. When the HC-144A Ocean Sentry was originally being acquired it was supposed to be a total fleet of ~36 aircraft, now reduced to 18 with some of the capability being provided by retired/unwanted USAF C-27J Spartan aircraft, now suitably modified. Given that the then EADS now Airbus Military FITS was being used, it was to enable the USCG to use/fit/swap Mission System Pallets (MSP) to provide the mission system operator stations to use/control the fitted sensors when in the maritime patrol surveillance role. A secondary role for the HC-144 variant of the CN-235 was also to provide airlift when the MSP was not fitted/needed.

With something like this in mind, there might be some value in NZ getting some CN-235 or C-295 aircraft, if they can be multi-role and/or re-role rapidly via the addition or removal of something the Mission System Pallets. Of course much would also depend on just how much additional coin might be able to become available.
 

Alberto32

Member
My own personal view is that the KHI C2 would be an ideal platform for NZ. I and another RNZAF veteran saw it when it was here in Christchurch some years ago. Both of us are quite impressed with its capabilities. The only down side with it is its acquisition cost.

WRT the C27J & C295. No for the reasons I have already stated. We suffer from the tyranny of distance. Look at a map. The situation with other FVEY nations and twin engined turbo prop battlefield airlifters are:
  • The UK don't at all. In fact, the smallest fixed wing airlift with a ramp the RAF have now is the A400M. They retired their C-130 fleet last year.
  • The RCAF use theirs for SAR only. Canada has a unique geography.
  • The RAAF have sidelined theirs because they can't hack the requirements. They only use them for HADR now and in both Aussie and Kiwi terms that is a waste of resources. HADR is not a core defence tasking.
  • The only US service to use such platforms are the Coastguard and they use it for SAR.
I wonder if since Australia is looking at a replacement of say the C-27J, would it be practical for Australia and New Zealand to do a joint order of the C2? Thus reducing the costs of the order for both countries.
 

Redlands18

Well-Known Member
I wonder if since Australia is looking at a replacement of say the C-27J, would it be practical for Australia and New Zealand to do a joint order of the C2? Thus reducing the costs of the order for both countries.
Already ordered, Australia's C-27 fleet will be replaced by 8 C-130J-30 in the early 30s, they and 12 more to replace the current C-130J fleet are currently on order to be delivered in the 2027-33 time period. Australia has shown no interest in aircraft in the C-2/A400M class.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
I wonder if since Australia is looking at a replacement of say the C-27J, would it be practical for Australia and New Zealand to do a joint order of the C2? Thus reducing the costs of the order for both countries.
It would depend a great deal on what Australia's current and future airlift needs are, and what the plans are to meet the airlift requirements.

I personally do not think that the ADF or RAAF are looking at acquiring the Kawasaki C-2 because Australia already operates both the C-130J and C-17 to cover tactical and strategic lift. The C-2, like the A400M is in the interesting position where it could be viewed as a large tactical airlifter or given the potential ranges a payload could be moved, a smaller strategic airlifter.

Now the C-27J was itself intended to be essentially the 'little brother' tactical airlifter to the C-130J, which is what the RAAF are getting to replace the C-27J.

Now there might be some potential in an joint/expanded order for some additional examples of the C-130J, but unless/until Australia needs to expand the strategic airlift capabilities and/or start to replace some of the C-17's, there really would be no reason to get cargo aircraft in the C-2/A400M class/size.

EDIT: And like @Volkodav apparently @Redlands18 types faster than I do...
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
It would depend a great deal on what Australia's current and future airlift needs are, and what the plans are to meet the airlift requirements.

I personally do not think that the ADF or RAAF are looking at acquiring the Kawasaki C-2 because Australia already operates both the C-130J and C-17 to cover tactical and strategic lift. The C-2, like the A400M is in the interesting position where it could be viewed as a large tactical airlifter or given the potential ranges a payload could be moved, a smaller strategic airlifter.

Now the C-27J was itself intended to be essentially the 'little brother' tactical airlifter to the C-130J, which is what the RAAF are getting to replace the C-27J.

Now there might be some potential in an joint/expanded order for some additional examples of the C-130J, but unless/until Australia needs to expand the strategic airlift capabilities and/or start to replace some of the C-17's, there really would be no reason to get cargo aircraft in the C-2/A400M class/size.

EDIT: And like @Volkodav apparently @Redlands18 types faster than I do...
For nations that are really flogging their C-17s, the C-2 could be a useful crutch as there won’t be a C-17 requirement for several decades.
 

Alberto32

Member

Like the Australians, I do wonder if NZ could follow a similar path, hopefully with a probability of a increase in the NZ defence budget we could see something. As I've seen on this website of how our technical and trades have been eroded over the years.
 

Teal

Active Member
Like everyone, i love the thought of new equipment and systems , but like i have mentioned before here, i feel we are missing the jesus nut of the problem. Whenuapai , like Devonport for the Navy , is no longer fit for purpose. NZ needs a new purpose built airbase that can support the operational requirements of the airframes discussed above. Whats the point of investing in a KC30, KC46 or even C2 if it cant take off at MAUW ? To save money you could do a joint civil/mil at Chch, but I feel this topic needs to part of the "rebuild" of the NZDF.
 

recce.k1

Well-Known Member
Like everyone, i love the thought of new equipment and systems , but like i have mentioned before here, i feel we are missing the jesus nut of the problem. Whenuapai , like Devonport for the Navy , is no longer fit for purpose. NZ needs a new purpose built airbase that can support the operational requirements of the airframes discussed above. Whats the point of investing in a KC30, KC46 or even C2 if it cant take off at MAUW ? To save money you could do a joint civil/mil at Chch, but I feel this topic needs to part of the "rebuild" of the NZDF.
Fully agree NZ ideally needs a new purpose built airbase for future growth expansion and/or potentially to base overseas visitors particularly if they are permanently based here (a la Singapore's proposal).

In the meantime the current basing arrangements appear to be "working", in that they can cater for NZ's current small air force. But suggest if the air force expands (even minimally, as in extra aircraft. Let alone potentially new capabilities), then having Ohakea supporting both operational and training squadrons ought to be re-examined. Granted overseas airforces can and do mix operational/training on the same base but in comparison to NZ their air bases are 'mega" sized i.e. take up a lot of land area. Although potentially Ohakea could expand even more perhaps. Otherwise investigate shifting basic pilot training to perhaps Woodbourne. Unclear if advanced pilot training would remain at Ohakea or shift - will leave that for RNZAF as SME's to figure out. But presumably helo training would remain at Ohakea for mass (3 Sqn LUH roles) and for maintenance support reasons.

A study was done during the 2017-2020 Labour/NZF coalition govt on new air force basing options including should an overseas air force were to be based here eg Singapore (and a new southern naval base). Will try and dig up the document (sorry can't do it until tomorrow) unless someone else can locate it first.

From memory various airbase options were looked at.

* Several sites in Northland (because ... NZF loves their own region)! But were ruled out (alot of this part of the study was blanked out), which I agree with as Northland is a narrow, confined area and this was mentioned as a factor (mind you the climate and beaches would be amazing, imagine the easy recruitment - think Aussie Gold Coast before it was developed several decades ago)! There was also concern operations would negatively impact upon Maori iwi/tribes in the area (I'd imagine there would be more pushback by having a military base in their backyard).

* Auckland International Airport was looked at but ruled out. Apparently even when AIA expands and constructs a second runway with associated infrastucture primarily for commercial users there will not be enough space to house all of the current Whenuapai squadrons there and/or allow the air force to operate unresticted.

* Waiouru Army Training Area was looked at, IIRC there might have been the space but were some other concerns which have escaped me but one of them might have been weather related, restricting flying operations? Ultimately ruled out.

*Christchurch International Airport was also looked at and was found to have many positive attributes. Eg expansion plans for a second runway (west of the existing main runway). RNZAF could potentially acquire land on the western side of the airport where the new runway would be located. So potentially this option would be viable.

My thoughts: RNZAF requires at least 3 operational bases - two in the North Island (Whenuapai and Ohakea) and a new operational base in the South Island. This follows historic reasoning. Also for civil defence resilience. Note I'm not counting Woodbourne as perhaps that could become the new training airbase? So why Christchurch? Because the infrastructure already exists (granted a new greenfield airbase in the South Island could be considered, at a greater cost, but will rule this out for now unless there is a future yet to be defined need - let's say the USAF wanted to set up shop). So Christchurch/Harewood it is. The city has employment and education opportunities for spouses/children and it also is fairly "cosmopolitan". It also links with the port at Lyttelton for naval/Antarctic re-supply.

What could be based at Christchurch (if and when it is developed)? Well if the RNZAF were to acquire large transport aircraft (eg A330 MRTT or C2 etc) its near 11,000' runway would allow pretty much unrestricted operations. Also potentially Antarctic support operations could move from the eastern side to the western side (eg RNZAF, and USAF C-17 operations). As the Army's 2/1 battalion in based nearby at Burham it would facilitate easier movement by air. And if a large helicopter type is eventually acquired, say Chinook, consider basing them there to give the South Island (and Army) a permanent military helo precence. Again invaluable for HADR (and when the Apline fault does go). Plus air force CSAR.

Then if an overseas air force for example Singapore (or whomever) were to base themselves there, they have plenty of land to build infrastructure and plenty of airspace to practice in a relatively low populated airspace.

The "problem" with Ohakea (for larger air transport or foreign basing) is it appears to have used up much of its existing estate space and any new expansion/development may need to start at the south/eastern side of the airbase. Also as Ohakea is the air forces primary airbase it would prefer not to have operations (nor expansion) curtailed by permanent foreign basing (according the previously publicly released Singapore F15 basing proposal docs). Plus also we want to keep Ohakea for future ACF or jet advanced training needs ;). The infrastructure (i.e. munition stores) and hangers still exist. The current hanger user - 42 Sqn's four B350's could be re-accomodated into a smaller purpose built hanger like the T-6 Texans have).

Finally:

*Whenuapai. In a nutshell RNZAF would prefer to retain Whenuapai and extend the existing main runway. Potentially this is do-able it seems.

I support this. Existing infrastructure exists and it is a purpose built military air base. Also for civil defence reasons. Otherwise if no Whenuapai (nor AIA being suitable) our largest city is "defenceless", even in terms of sneaking special forces in to defend the navy base or local government, for example). Granted I would expect that even if runways were extended, there would still be restrictions on some operations (eg at night time).

So what would be based at Whenuapai? Currently the C-130's and if more are acquired then there is additional hanger space available (the former P-3 Orion hanger). Currently the naval helos are based there so no change. Potentially there would be space for future long-range maritime UAV operations and/or future EMAC coastal patrol aircraft. Suggest also NZDF investigate the feasibility of basing a small squadron/flight of new medium utility helicopters for dedicated NZSAS support (like how the Australian Army has its own specialised SASR helo capability). Probably looking at 2 a/c in the air so perhaps only 5 (or 6) would be needed? If say the UH-60M was choosen then that would provide commonality (in terms of support) with a potential MH-60R naval acquisition. Would also enable full interoperably with the ADF (Special Forces, plus Navy). Also full interoperability with close allies such as US Army/SOF (if anyone read the media reports of the tragic death of a NZSAS trooper exercising with US SOF not too long ago there also appears to be a training capability gap due to NZ helo operations being conducted with a different and unlike platform not allowing the RNZAF to become familiar with the deployment insertion technique to allow NZSAS to practice).
 
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Hawkeye69

Member
I enjoy the enthusiasm on here to upgrade our defence force but reality needs to be kept in check, in the short term NZDF pay and retention and housing will be the main focus.

The 757 replacement is already in planning stages as requested by new Govt but please understand this will most likely be a leased commercial aircraft along the lines of the Airbus A321.

The Seasprite replacement is also underway including short term interim lease option.

But don‘t expect much outside of this in the next 3 years first term of this Govt and should this Govt get voted in again in 2026 then they would start to look deep into the Defence Review due out May this year, but any major defence investment is not a vote winner and our politicians are very aware of this so don’t expect anything more than the very bare minimum required and that word leased appearing more as well as refurbished, the Govt use the term they like stock standard reliable like a Toyota Corolla, so don’t expect all the bells and whistles.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
I enjoy the enthusiasm on here to upgrade our defence force but reality needs to be kept in check, in the short term NZDF pay and retention and housing will be the main focus.

The 757 replacement is already in planning stages as requested by new Govt but please understand this will most likely be a leased commercial aircraft along the lines of the Airbus A321.

The Seasprite replacement is also underway including short term interim lease option.

But don‘t expect much outside of this in the next 3 years first term of this Govt and should this Govt get voted in again in 2026 then they would start to look deep into the Defence Review due out May this year, but any major defence investment is not a vote winner and our politicians are very aware of this so don’t expect anything more than the very bare minimum required and that word leased appearing more as well as refurbished, the Govt use the term they like stock standard reliable like a Toyota Corolla, so don’t expect all the bells and whistles.
If one is being strictly realistic, it is very rare outside of a major crisis like the sudden outbreak of major international war that a new defence procurement programme could be both started and have initial unit deliveries within a ~five year period and TBH even five years usually requires a number of conditions to align just right. Initial deliveries a decade from now for new programmes that might get launched this year would be a more realistic timeframe.
 

recce.k1

Well-Known Member
Some recent news.

DefMin Collins confirms a June release date for the defence capability plan. (Earlier reporting was saying end of 2024).

Govt appears to be supportive in assessing whether the NZ space industry could be developing/operating satellites for defence purposes.

Personnel attrition has declined to 11.9% as of Dec 2023 (down from 15.6% at the beginning of 2023).
 

Alberto32

Member
Some recent news.

DefMin Collins confirms a June release date for the defence capability plan. (Earlier reporting was saying end of 2024).

Govt appears to be supportive in assessing whether the NZ space industry could be developing/operating satellites for defence purposes.

Personnel attrition has declined to 11.9% as of Dec 2023 (down from 15.6% at the beginning of 2023).
In one of those articles, it highlights our ammunition shortages. I know that it's a long shot, but we seriously need to look at building a ammunition factory, as what Australia is doing right now. We need to be more self reliant on having access to ammunition, as well as crating jobs for New Zealanders in the process.

Also in terms of satellites and Defence. Surely we could use our space industry to look at a joint project with Australia on their own Military Satellite Communications system. As I know that we've heard about the Wide band system set up by the USA, and how we've paid into it, but Australia did experience having to access it to help coordinate the fire fighting process during Summer of 2019.

 
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OldTex

Well-Known Member
Also in terms of satellites and Defence. Surely we could use our space industry to look at a joint project with Australia on their own Military Satellite Communications system. As I know that we've heard about the Wide band system set up by the USA, and how we've paid into it, but Australia did experience having to access it to help coordinate the fire fighting process during Summer of 2019.
The WGS constellation is good up to a point. That point is where it becomes oversubscribed and the US have first call on the bandwidth (as per versions of the MOU......which included wording along the lines of "where bandwidth s available"). The way chosen to manage the oversubscription was to increase the planning lead time, which makes the system increasingly inflexible.
The beauty of a sovereign system is that it can be more flexible if it is properly designed in the first place. A dedicated satellite, or constellation preferrably, is the best option. The next best option is a defence payload hosted on a nationally controlled satellite or constellation. Having a spare satellite and the means to independently place it in orbit increases the benefit that can be derived from a sovereign system
 

Alberto32

Member
The WGS constellation is good up to a point. That point is where it becomes oversubscribed and the US have first call on the bandwidth (as per versions of the MOU......which included wording along the lines of "where bandwidth s available"). The way chosen to manage the oversubscription was to increase the planning lead time, which makes the system increasingly inflexible.
The beauty of a sovereign system is that it can be more flexible if it is properly designed in the first place. A dedicated satellite, or constellation preferrably, is the best option. The next best option is a defence payload hosted on a nationally controlled satellite or constellation. Having a spare satellite and the means to independently place it in orbit increases the benefit that can be derived from a sovereign system
The funniest thing is, that I recall suggesting this on this website, and yet I got shot down by members as apparently I didn't know anything, and that it wasn't necessary for NZ or Australia, and that the current WGS worked perfectly fine and there was no issues, even when I provided evidence.

I still think that NZ should put in a bid to join Australia, and have it named as the ANZAC satellite communications network. Utilising Rocket lab and the rest of our space industry to help Australia and New Zealand build such a network.
 

OldTex

Well-Known Member
The funniest thing is, that I recall suggesting this on this website, and yet I got shot down by members as apparently I didn't know anything, and that it wasn't necessary for NZ or Australia, and that the current WGS worked perfectly fine and there was no issues, even when I provided evidence.

I still think that NZ should put in a bid to join Australia, and have it named as the ANZAC satellite communications network. Utilising Rocket lab and the rest of our space industry to help Australia and New Zealand build such a network.
Well there are people who know and people who think they know. The idea of the WGS is good, but it is the implementation of the idea that is flawed. Also the growth in the demand for the bandwidth has been far greater than was envisaged when the first version of the WGS satellites were design, built and launched. Even the second version (WGS 7 and higher) with increased bandwidth and crossbanding has not kept up with the demand.
The Electron launcher would not have the ability to lift a communications satellite, but a larger version, either Neutron or a multi core version ala Falcon Heavy or Delta Heavy, might be appropriate. Using a smaller satellite bus as the basis for the satellite would also be needed. It might be that the satellites are made by one of the larger firms overseas, but with spare platforms available to expand the constellation or replace lost platforms.
 

recce.k1

Well-Known Member
Interesting discussions gentlemen. On a related tangent I recall a previous ASPI article advocating for better Australia/NZ space launch coordination, to take advantage of the different latitudes of launch sites offered by both countries (eg in terms of payloads and orbits - low earth v higher etc). Perhaps if NZGov support is forthcoming, NZ could make a worthwhile contribution to Australian initiatives to develop "specialised" sovereign communications and surveillance capabilities?

 

Alberto32

Member
Interesting discussions gentlemen. On a related tangent I recall a previous ASPI article advocating for better Australia/NZ space launch coordination, to take advantage of the different latitudes of launch sites offered by both countries (eg in terms of payloads and orbits - low earth v higher etc). Perhaps if NZGov support is forthcoming, NZ could make a worthwhile contribution to Australian initiatives to develop "specialised" sovereign communications and surveillance capabilities?

I think it's about time we did have such a capability to do so. Even having a regional GNSS would be a good idea to look at. We need to have a independent option, while not relying on the USA and or the EU etc of supplying and controlling access to such platforms. Hell, if we look at how the Loyal Wingman programme has progressed, we could see some real change in industrial areas.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The WGS constellation is good up to a point. That point is where it becomes oversubscribed and the US have first call on the bandwidth (as per versions of the MOU......which included wording along the lines of "where bandwidth s available"). The way chosen to manage the oversubscription was to increase the planning lead time, which makes the system increasingly inflexible.
The beauty of a sovereign system is that it can be more flexible if it is properly designed in the first place. A dedicated satellite, or constellation preferrably, is the best option. The next best option is a defence payload hosted on a nationally controlled satellite or constellation. Having a spare satellite and the means to independently place it in orbit increases the benefit that can be derived from a sovereign system
I agree because I think that an Australasian developed, built, and launched satellite communications system is provides resilience for if /when issues occurs with the US WGS system. I would expand this thought to include Australasian developed, built, and launched ISR satellites. They don't have to be big birds but quite easily constellations of cube sats.
The funniest thing is, that I recall suggesting this on this website, and yet I got shot down by members as apparently I didn't know anything, and that it wasn't necessary for NZ or Australia, and that the current WGS worked perfectly fine and there was no issues, even when I provided evidence.

I still think that NZ should put in a bid to join Australia, and have it named as the ANZAC satellite communications network. Utilising Rocket lab and the rest of our space industry to help Australia and New Zealand build such a network.
There are people on here who have access to information that isn't necessarily publicly available.
I enjoy the enthusiasm on here to upgrade our defence force but reality needs to be kept in check, in the short term NZDF pay and retention and housing will be the main focus.

The 757 replacement is already in planning stages as requested by new Govt but please understand this will most likely be a leased commercial aircraft along the lines of the Airbus A321.

The Seasprite replacement is also underway including short term interim lease option.

But don‘t expect much outside of this in the next 3 years first term of this Govt and should this Govt get voted in again in 2026 then they would start to look deep into the Defence Review due out May this year, but any major defence investment is not a vote winner and our politicians are very aware of this so don’t expect anything more than the very bare minimum required and that word leased appearing more as well as refurbished, the Govt use the term they like stock standard reliable like a Toyota Corolla, so don’t expect all the bells and whistles.
  1. IIRC the A321 isn't available as freighter and that would be a start point.
  2. The A321 isn't operated by the ADF and one point that has strongly emerged from the ANZMIN 2+2 is the commonality and integration of platforms between the ADF and NZDF.
  3. The NZ Minister of Defence has spoken about being able to provide force multiplication capabilities in our close defence relationship between NZDF and ADF.
  4. Also contrary to some perceptions, since 2014 successive Cabinet and Treasury attitudes towards the cheapest is best idea WRT defence acquisition have been well and truly sunk. They finally figured out the false economy argument.
  5. We necessarily cannot count on recent history to guide us. Times have changed and the NZG geostrategic attitude has gone from not worried to almost seriously concerned.
  6. The B757 were not the ideal option for a strategic airlifter and the pollies know that. I get the impression that they are interested in the ADF strategic and VIP airlift solution.
  7. Until the DCP is released we don't have any real idea of what the govt is intending. I suspect that the MOD & NZDF people are working overtime to factor in the new requirements to the DCP. This govts ideas on defence are different to all of the previous govts from 1990 to 2019.
  8. There is absolutely no guarantee that the current govt will be voted back in the 2026 election. A lot can and will happen between now and then. In 2019 the then coalition govt under Ardern didn't think that it would be facing a deadly pandemic. Any person who claims that the current govt will be voted back in during the 2026 election is a fool. In 2017 everybody thought that the then coalition govt would breeze back in. The opposite happened.
Interesting discussions gentlemen. On a related tangent I recall a previous ASPI article advocating for better Australia/NZ space launch coordination, to take advantage of the different latitudes of launch sites offered by both countries (eg in terms of payloads and orbits - low earth v higher etc). Perhaps if NZGov support is forthcoming, NZ could make a worthwhile contribution to Australian initiatives to develop "specialised" sovereign communications and surveillance capabilities?

I actually think that NZ is in the position to lead such an endeavour. We have two launch facilities operational here now: Rocket Lab's vertical launch complex at Mahia; and the horizontal launch facility a Te Waihora / Lake Ellesmere, here in Canterbury. There are two operators actively pursuing horizontal reusable space planes here in Canterbury. Also, Christchurch is turning out to be the space capital of NZ.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I think it's about time we did have such a capability to do so. Even having a regional GNSS would be a good idea to look at. We need to have a independent option, while not relying on the USA and or the EU etc of supplying and controlling access to such platforms. Hell, if we look at how the Loyal Wingman programme has progressed, we could see some real change in industrial areas.
Whilst that maybe desirable, designing, building, and launching a GNSS capability from scratch isn't for the faint hearted. We can leverage both the US GPS and the European GNSS systems. What we should be concentrating on is the ability to operate in a space constrained environment. That means looking at very robust and accurate INS (Inertial Navigation Systems) and ACN (Airborne Communications Systems) to kick in as soon as the space environment is constrained.
 

Hawkeye69

Member
I agree because I think that an Australasian developed, built, and launched satellite communications system is provides resilience for if /when issues occurs with the US WGS system. I would expand this thought to include Australasian developed, built, and launched ISR satellites. They don't have to be big birds but quite easily constellations of cube sats.

There are people on here who have access to information that isn't necessarily publicly available.

  1. IIRC the A321 isn't available as freighter and that would be a start point.
  2. The A321 isn't operated by the ADF and one point that has strongly emerged from the ANZMIN 2+2 is the commonality and integration of platforms between the ADF and NZDF.
  3. The NZ Minister of Defence has spoken about being able to provide force multiplication capabilities in our close defence relationship between NZDF and ADF.
  4. Also contrary to some perceptions, since 2014 successive Cabinet and Treasury attitudes towards the cheapest is best idea WRT defence acquisition have been well and truly sunk. They finally figured out the false economy argument.
  5. We necessarily cannot count on recent history to guide us. Times have changed and the NZG geostrategic attitude has gone from not worried to almost seriously concerned.
  6. The B757 were not the ideal option for a strategic airlifter and the pollies know that. I get the impression that they are interested in the ADF strategic and VIP airlift solution.
  7. Until the DCP is released we don't have any real idea of what the govt is intending. I suspect that the MOD & NZDF people are working overtime to factor in the new requirements to the DCP. This govts ideas on defence are different to all of the previous govts from 1990 to 2019.
  8. There is absolutely no guarantee that the current govt will be voted back in the 2026 election. A lot can and will happen between now and then. In 2019 the then coalition govt under Ardern didn't think that it would be facing a deadly pandemic. Any person who claims that the current govt will be voted back in during the 2026 election is a fool. In 2017 everybody thought that the then coalition govt would breeze back in. The opposite happened.

I actually think that NZ is in the position to lead such an endeavour. We have two launch facilities operational here now: Rocket Lab's vertical launch complex at Mahia; and the horizontal launch facility a Te Waihora / Lake Ellesmere, here in Canterbury. There are two operators actively pursuing horizontal reusable space planes here in Canterbury. Also, Christchurch is turning out to be the space capital of NZ.
 
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