Hamas-Israeli War 2023

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
TRANSLATION:
(Egyptian Media) Cairo has not yet received any response to the ceasefire initiative in Gaza.


Egypt Sets Out Ambitious Israel-Gaza Ceasefire Plan:

Judging by the parameters it's either a non-serious proposal aimed to appease a local audience, or a long term framework setting attempt. In both cases, it makes sense we won't hear an answer.
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Excuse me for lack of posting on the topic. I like focusing on big events, and it seems the war has shifted into a micromanagement phase, unfortunately with the government exhibiting unwillingness to even publicly discuss grand strategy for the "day after" and regarding the region in general.

As far as major events go, we had one yesterday with the HCJ (High Court of Justice) striking down the government's amendment to a basic law - effectively preserving the reasonableness clause.


Quick reminder:
The HCJ can in principle strike down any law passed by Knesset (parliament) if it is deemed "unreasonable". While not ideal (can be equally abused), it is the primary check and balance in Israel's fragile and constitution-less legal system.
Country-wide protests have erupted in January of 2023 against many announced government policies, and the reasonableness clause took center stage.

Since October 7th, there has been a perceived consensus that infighting should be frozen until the end of the war, and that we need to display unity. Despite that, dangerous conspiracy theories and attacks against victims' families have occurred with increasing intensity recently, particularly now as people understand that the war will drag on and we need to return to some routine. The political opposition therefore sees it as a coalition's elections campaign, and now with the growing feeling that the coalition will continue pushing its "legal overhaul", protests may soon erupt.

What this event likely means for the road ahead:
  • Some protesters lulled, some reinvigorated. Protest leaders may begin testing the water for resumption of protests. A premature return could hurt the protest movement's legitimacy and push away outside supporters.
  • Gov may feel like the can is already open and blame it on the opposition - allowing it to maintain a political campaign to restore some of its lost power. Recent polls gave it 44 seats, a major drop from its current 64 in the Knesset.
  • Coupled with politicization of hostages' families and victims as "traitors" by the coalition, this could signal a slowdown in political cooperation with security forces and therefore a slowdown in operational and strategic tempo.
  • Significant parts of the legal overhaul are now effectively dead, and it is unlikely that the coalition as a whole would continue voting for additional such measures.
  • As the government now sets a narrative of being attacked while "agreeing" to a "freeze", this may delegitimize calls by the opposition to run elections this year.
  • Hamas and Hezbollah may feel encouraged, as this tremendous tragedy in 7/10 only gave Israel less than 2 months of unity. It would likely take a full fledged war with Hezbollah to restore some of this unity.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Interesting claim - Israeli security officials reportedly float the idea of Gazan clans (=gangs) ruling over Gaza as intermediaries in their respective territories.


I previously wrote they are a hindrance. I still believe that, and even if leveraged for the short term, they cannot be a permanent solution. Still, the PA may take a long time to be transformed into something that can govern Gaza, and Gazans are far less likely to be cooperative if policy comes through Israel directly.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
I previously wrote they are a hindrance. I still believe that, and even if leveraged for the short term, they cannot be a permanent solution. Still, the PA may take a long time to be transformed into something that can govern Gaza, and Gazans are far less likely to be cooperative if policy comes through Israel directly.
1. I suspect that this may present more problems, while solving the power vacuum issue.

Q: Is Hamas defeated at this stage?​

2. The Palestinian Authority’s Ambassador to Oman, Dr Tayser Farahat, is openly opposing Hamas on Al-Jazeera. He asks:

What did Hamas gain from massacre?
Did it liberate Palestine?​

The suffering of Gazans today is unbearable. And it’s all because of Hamas.

3. On 30 Dec 2023, masked men abducted Mohammed Mushtaha, a respected imam in Gaza. “He knew that refusing to act as a megaphone for Hamas could lead to his death,” his son Ala Mohammed Mushtaha writes, “and yet he refused.” From the river to the sea, Hamas will kidnap and silence everyone, Palestinians first, Israelis second. Ala Mohammed Mushtaha wrote in @TheFP & explained the real reason for his father’s death, & it is this:

“He wouldn’t preach what Hamas told him to. He refused to tell Gazans that violent resistance & obedience to Hamas, is the best way out of our current hell."​

4. Hamas has put enormous pressure on imams to persuade the population that their only choice is “the resistance.” Schools and universities aren’t functioning; the one thing that draws people in is prayer.

5. To keep Mohammed Mushtaha, in line, ensuring that he would deliver only Hamas-approved Friday sermons and allow Hamas to use his mosque as a clandestine weapons depot, they arrested Ala Mohammed Mushtaha & his brother at least 19 times between 2016 and 2019. Sometimes they would speak politely, sometimes they would ask these 2 to comply for the sake of their sisters, but always the threat of violence loomed in the background.
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Good short read on Israel-Hezbollah war.
The essence:
1. Israel-Hezbollah conflict is below war threshold.
2. Israel must find a solution for the tens of thousands of internally displaced Israelis evacuated from the northern border (IIRC total 130k internally displaced).
3. Israel cannot handle wars on two fronts, and at the same time expect to achieve the results it'd expect in a single front war.


1. I suspect that this may present more problems, while solving the power vacuum issue.

Q: Is Hamas defeated at this stage?​

2. The Palestinian Authority’s Ambassador to Oman, Dr Tayser Farahat, is openly opposing Hamas on Al-Jazeera. He asks:

What did Hamas gain from massacre?​
Did it liberate Palestine?​
Seems like basic opportunism to me.
Arguably the Palestinians want to hear a sense of urgency, and Palestinian politicians may interpret current events as well as US plans for a revitalized PA in Gaza, as election season.

A noteworthy figure that we haven't heard of in many years, is Mohammad Dahlan - an exiled Gazan living in the UAE, formerly head of PA's Preventive Security Force. Whenever there is talk about PA elections, his name floats. If the PA is indeed "revitalized", he could take an important part.
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
Dahlan looks fatally compromised to me. Widely suspected by Palestinians of being corrupt (how did he get rich?), & thought to be too close to Israel & western countries.

Not that they'd find it easy to find someone with the authority & support needed & no corruption issues.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
IDF announces completion of efforts to dismantle Hamas framework in northern Gaza. It is likely that lone cells exist in that area, and that many were trained to operate as such - however now they have no coherent command structure, and significant parts of their infrastructure has been destroyed.

Indeed multiple such videos emerged in a short amount of time recently, indicating the IDF is wrapping up some of its main clearing efforts. Unarmored engineering equipment, more relaxed movement, and planting of explosives indicate a much greater level of freedom of movement for the IDF in northern Gaza.


Hezbollah attacked exposed equipment in sensitive Mount Meron base with long range ATGMs. Hezbollah is in possession of a wide array of AT weapons, and this long range strike indicates the possession of Kornet-EM systems capable of reaching up to 8-10km. The absolute closest point in Lebanon to Mount Meron is over 7km away.
This individual attack is less an issue than how it showcases Israel's lack of very short range air defense and active protection of fixed sites, including against non-artillery projectiles. Like ATGMs, drones can also fly low and fast, but their communication and guidance methods differ, meaning that unless a fixed asset has holistic and therefore impossibly complex and expensive soft kill methods - it will need a kinetic solution which the IDF is not in possession of.
Despite prior knowledge of Hezbollah's possession of advanced Kornet ATGM variants, it also highlights Hezbollah's ability to quickly close certain technological gaps with the IDF and exploit its tactical shortcomings.


Although Gallant is seen as the most pragmatic member of the coalition, not engaging in the usual divisive rhetoric - his overall rhetoric during the war is a very unwelcome change. Lots of talk for someone in his position, not much actual biting. This is embarrassing.
Needless to say - Israel has no interest in turning Beirut into a second Gaza. In fact - it's the exact opposite. Lebanon has a sizable population that is principally in favor of either peace or some other form of dialogue-based relationship with Israel. Threatening to switch to an overly aggressive approach that disproportionately harms the civilian population would do far more harm than good. This is why I believe Israel will eventually seek a much more swift and aggressive maneuver in Lebanon's south, but much more surgical approach in Lebanon's population centers. Therefore - empty threats from Mr. Gallant.


South Africa and Israel have each set a form of precedent. South Africa decided to bring Israel to the Hague under allegations of war crimes. Israel decided to accept the challenge and sent its own legal team.
There is a glaring asymmetry regarding allegations of war crimes leveled at Israel and Palestine. While Israel's legal team will be easily able to prove Hamas's (and others) own war crimes, the South African legal team will have to fight an uphill battle proving allegations of Israeli war crimes.
War crimes can be generally categorized as:
1. National level.
2. Unit level.
3. Individual level.
And of course for each there is the distinction between intentional and negligent.
For example poorly defined RoE can lead to war crimes via negligence. Or a soldier not adhering to a well defined RoE may commit a war crime, which could well be intentional. The vast majority of allegations against Israel deal with the individual level, which only makes this a more difficult case.

This distinction between allegations of Israeli war crimes vs clear cut cases of Palestinian war crimes, could definitely backfire against South Africa and the Iran axis, and play into Israel's hands should Israel win the case.

On the same topic but offtopic from the war - Netanyahu chooses former supreme justice Aharon Barak to lead the Israeli team at the Hague. Ironically, this is the same person Netanyahu and his political camp crucified for over a year in their quest to dismantle the justice system and supreme court. Top tier comedy.


Dahlan looks fatally compromised to me. Widely suspected by Palestinians of being corrupt (how did he get rich?), & thought to be too close to Israel & western countries.

Not that they'd find it easy to find someone with the authority & support needed & no corruption issues.
Corruption is the name of the game when it comes to, well... pretty much the entire Palestinian political spectrum. He was vilified a lot by his peers but it's not like popularity is so vital in the middle east. Much less popular figures have ruled quite successfully - Assad, Khamenei, Saddam Hussein - to name a few.
It's unfortunate, but that's the reality in this region. You only need enough loyalists with guns and a pinch of sadism and you're set.
Unless the middle east undergoes some radical change in the next few months - this is what the west will stick with for governing Palestine.
 

third_umpire

New Member
What could be the acceptable long term solution for all parties. Can a single ruler be propped up in palestine as in other stable arab xountries like qatar , ksa. People under single powerful ruler adhering and obeying stringent laws. Ruling family knows how to keep citizens in check. Fear of imprisonment , execution ensures citizens fall in line. Palestine cud be allowed to keep police but no army. Palestine cud be handed over and made extended emirate of qatar or uae where internal defence matters are governed thru headquarter in riyadh, dubai or doha. Other administayive affairs managed by palestine. Now question arises about freewill of palestinians. Well they dont have any in present precarious situation hamas hasbgotb them in to. Hamas after perpetuatiog heinous attack cannot be a party in any negotiation.how long can israel continue fighting this way. With us , eu backing and resources at disposal for many more years certainly.this situation should be utilised to permanently settle the issue for betterment of mankind. In any settlememt scenario palestinians have more to lose. Certain territory pales will have to lose. Democracy model will not work there. Pre sept 7 situatoon will also be not acceptable. Moot point is who will be the negotiating party from paleatinian side. Hamas cannot be. Un or some arab state has to be will be the guaranteer of terms pf settlement and peace at border. Al aqsa hmmm its goes to
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
What could be the acceptable long term solution for all parties. Can a single ruler be propped up in palestine as in other stable arab xountries like qatar , ksa. People under single powerful ruler adhering and obeying stringent laws. Ruling family knows how to keep citizens in check. Fear of imprisonment , execution ensures citizens fall in line. Palestine cud be allowed to keep police but no army. Palestine cud be handed over and made extended emirate of qatar or uae where internal defence matters are governed thru headquarter in riyadh, dubai or doha. Other administayive affairs managed by palestine. Now question arises about freewill of palestinians. Well they dont have any in present precarious situation hamas hasbgotb them in to. Hamas after perpetuatiog heinous attack cannot be a party in any negotiation.how long can israel continue fighting this way. With us , eu backing and resources at disposal for many more years certainly.this situation should be utilised to permanently settle the issue for betterment of mankind. In any settlememt scenario palestinians have more to lose. Certain territory pales will have to lose. Democracy model will not work there. Pre sept 7 situatoon will also be not acceptable. Moot point is who will be the negotiating party from paleatinian side. Hamas cannot be. Un or some arab state has to be will be the guaranteer of terms pf settlement and peace at border. Al aqsa hmmm its goes to
A dictator can indeed be installed, which is something I raised here earlier. Mohammad Dahlan came to mind, but there could be other options.

Regarding negotiations - you can't really negotiate with dictatorships. When you do, you negotiate with the dictator, not the nation. If any national interest is advanced - it's purely coincidental. And we do know that dictators are hardly ever the benevolent kind.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Western media always try to shift the burden to Arab Neigbours to sort out Palestinians civilians as refugees on the Neigbours land. The Saudis foreign minister position is something that already known for sometime. No Palestinians going be taken from their land. Accepting Palestinians refugees is same thing as accepting policy on uprooting them from their land.

Something that I have put sometime ago in this thread. No Arabs government want to participate on ethnic cleansing of Palestinians. The weight is not with them, the weight of problem will not be shifted to the neighbors.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Western media always try to shift the burden to Arab Neigbours to sort out Palestinians civilians as refugees on the Neigbours land. The Saudis foreign minister position is something that already known for sometime. No Palestinians going be taken from their land. Accepting Palestinians refugees is same thing as accepting policy on uprooting them from their land.

Something that I have put sometime ago in this thread. No Arabs government want to participate on ethnic cleansing of Palestinians. The weight is not with them, the weight of problem will not be shifted to the neighbors
Yet they are very much fine with Europe taking in millions of middle eastern refugees.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
they are very much fine with Europe taking in millions of middle eastern refugees.
Those refugees will not be uprooted from their land. Besides they're coming mostly from Libya and Syria and they can always go back. The West has their hand on the mess there. Syria can be argue but Lybia clearly Euro mess when they believe it is beneficial to get rid of Khadafi.

Anyway it is unrelated whatever pro Israel try to sell to the world. Most of Arab will not take Palestinian refugees because they know it is only serve Israel cause of ethnics cleansing. That's the big difference between Libya and Syrian refugees and of Palestinian become refugees. No right of return for Palestinians refugees, and some in West wonder why Arabs won't entertain that agenda from Israel.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Those refugees will not be uprooted from their land. Besides they're coming mostly from Libya and Syria and they can always go back. The West has their hand on the mess there. Syria can be argue but Lybia clearly Euro mess when they believe it is beneficial to get rid of Khadafi.

Anyway it is unrelated whatever pro Israel try to sell to the world. Most of Arab will not take Palestinian refugees because they know it is only serve Israel cause of ethnics cleansing. That's the big difference between Libya and Syrian refugees and of Palestinian become refugees. No right of return for Palestinians refugees, and some in West wonder why Arabs won't entertain that agenda from Israel.
Most "refugees" from the ME entering Europe have absolutely no intention of returning (unless they are forced to return.)
Agree on Libya being a mess. Europe/US should have stayed out of it. Ghaddafi was a horrible dictator though.

Regarding ethnics cleansing of geographical areas: towards the end, and just after WW2 12-14 million Germans were relocated, many of them from Eastern Europe into West Germany. Flight and expulsion of Germans (1944–1950) - Wikipedia Interesting historical parallel.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
refugees" from the ME entering Europe have absolutely no intention of returning (unless they are forced to return.)
But they have that right to return. Not something that can be said to any Palestinian so far that has been force from their land.


Most Israeli will not like this interview, but that's something that also been raise by one of their ex negotiator. As long as there's systematic expulsion of Palestinian Right of return, no Arabs government willing to risk the consequences of accepting Palestinians refugees. Because their street also know that's means they are accepting expulsion of Palestinian Gaza or West Bank from their land.

Interesting historical parallel.
Which way no Arabs government want to risk the anger from their street if they accepting any Palestinians refugees. Anger because means they are compulsory to the act of ethics cleansing.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Ghaddafi was a horrible dictator though.
Put it on different repply post, because it is different topic. Yes he's horrible dictactor, and so does Saddam and Bashar. However removing them should be left on their own citizens and internal politics. West messing around with them only result with broken Libya, Syria and Iraq.

Thus the results of those refugees can't be said not due to Western meddling. Refugees just price or costs on doing that. West should let it be done by their own internal struggle, and not interfere or pay consequences including refugees. Which is why South East Asian nations for one thing, not want to get involve with Myanmar mess, not also India, not also even China. At least direct involvement in the ground. You involve directly in the groumd, and be prepared to pay the costs of more mess. Including more refugees, as part of total breakdown of a nation.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Put it on different repply post, because it is different topic. Yes he's horrible dictactor, and so does Saddam and Bashar. However removing them should be left on their own citizens and internal politics. West messing around with them only result with broken Libya, Syria and Iraq.

Thus the results of those refugees can't be said not due to Western meddling. Refugees just price or costs on doing that. West should let it be done by their own internal struggle, and not interfere or pay consequences including refugees.
I agree that one should not meddle in other peoples affairs unless it becomes really necessary to do so. Thus the West should stay out of the Israel/Palestinian conflicts as much as possible even if that is probably very negative for the Palestinians. The irony is that Palestinians don't want the West to stay out; they want the West and in particular Europe to become more involved, and push harder on Israel to stop the war in Gaza, and to stop the "no right to return" policy, stop the occupation of the West bank. But you are right, the West should stay out of it and let the locals sort it out by themselves, even if it means the Palestinians will keep suffering for the foreseeable future.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Those refugees will not be uprooted from their land. Besides they're coming mostly from Libya and Syria and they can always go back. The West has their hand on the mess there. Syria can be argue but Lybia clearly Euro mess when they believe it is beneficial to get rid of Khadafi
Millions of Syrians just packing their things and leaving to Europe.... because it's fun?
How did I not think of it? I'm sure if they return to Syria right now they'll see their homes completely intact and their relatives fully resurrected and reattached.

You just don't want to admit that the entire Arab world gave the Palestinians a giant middle finger.
 
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