Red Sea and the Houthis threat

[Todjaeger]

(NEW)
US army attacks three Houthi boats in Red Sea, killing at least 10 fighters:

US army attacks three Houthi boats in Red Sea, killing at least 10 fighters

Global shipping giant Maersk suspends operations in the Red Sea for 48 hours after the attack.

www.aljazeera.com

Yemen's Houthis attack American warship in Red Sea - report

Yemen's Houthis attack American warship in Red Sea - report

Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked an American warship in the Red Sea, Israeli media reported.The two groups enga

m.jpost.com

I wish to point out that normally DT requires posters to at least add a couple of sentences of their own commentary or questions when posting links, otherwise the forum might start to look more like a news feed.

Secondly, the Al Jazeera 'story' is IMO poorly (and inaccurately) headlined, likely to provoke a reaction. If one bothers to actually read the article, rather than just the headline, one will see that the helicopters involved were embarked on USN vessels and then there was a social media announcement by the US CentCom that it was USN helicopters (and not US Army like the headline states) that were involved. This suggests to me either poor (in terms of factual accuracy) journalism, or attempts to manipulate or provoke a response from readers.

 

[Redlands18]

I wish to point out that normally DT requires posters to at least add a couple of sentences of their own commentary or questions when posting links, otherwise the forum might start to look more like a news feed.

And the other one is the use of red ink in posting, a major no-no, the Mods use it exclusively for warnings and Bannings.

 

[Atomic Warrior]

I wish to point out that normally DT requires posters to at least add a couple of sentences of their own commentary or questions when posting links, otherwise the forum might start to look more like a news feed.

I intend on giving a analysis when I get home. Just not at home at the moment and wanted to get the conversation rolling about the escalating tensions in the Red Sea and news reports of US & UK gearing for strikes in Yemen. But duly noted.

 

[Atomic Warrior]

And the other one is the use of red ink in posting, a major no-no, the Mods use it exclusively for warnings and Bannings.

I'll use green next time to highlight events I think are extra worthy of discussion. Sorry I'm new. So I am going to make mistakes, but will learn from them.

 

[Redlands18]

I'll use green next time to highlight events I think are extra worthy of discussion. Sorry I'm new. So I am going to make mistakes, but will learn from them.

Don't think you can use green either, the mods use green as step 1 for a general warning then use red for sanctions. Most members use a darker shade of black for highlighting a post.

 

[Meriv90]

1. Mwatana for Human Rights, a Yemeni NGO that documents atrocities in the country, told Middle East Eye that, "women are facing sexual violence and harassment by all parties on the ground." And by all parties, the NGO is referring to Houthi forces and fighters from the STC, who are accused of forcing Ethiopian women into 'sexual slavery'.

2. In 2022, the US State Department noted that “migrant workers, especially women and children from the Horn of Africa who remained or arrived in Yemen, may have endured intensified violence.” Therefore, on the basis of links provided in points 1 & 2, it is accurate to say that the Houthis “use slavery to motivate its leadership team”.


3. @Meriv90, it is also concurrently correct for you to point this out, but there are two further points to note:

​

One, while there is some concern about reliability of the Saudi News source cited, your reasoning process for doubt of a Saudi news source might not be a strong challenge to the report. Especially given that there is some collateral collaboration on the horrid local conditions by other sources.​

​

Two, according a Saudi news source (which you doubt) & also by a film crew from Al Jazeera that investigated, they found that slavery not only existed but was growing in Yemen. According to Al Jazeera, when a Yemeni judge approved the transfer of a slave from one owner to another, it triggered a campaign by a local journalist, human rights activists, and the wider press. With the help of these campaigners and using hidden cameras, the makers of this Al Jazeera film investigate political figures allegedly involved in modern slavery.​

4. Your point is well noted and you are welcome to provide more sources for consideration.

Thanks for the sources. Both of them with Mwatana being nominated to the Nobel prize and Al Jazeera (considering Qatar position in regards to its neighbors) .

I asked for sources because in Libya they often use the term slavery as an alternative to the more precise term of "subsidized immigration", probably the term doesn't even exist in English. It used to refer to Italian emigrants that had their voyaged financed by the haciendas in Brazil in exchange of their work. We had to outlaw the practice because the results were inhumane. Probably more similar to Chinese Coolies than to African slavery.

So when I normally read about slavery I always take it with a pinch of salt and go/ask for sources.

 

[Atomic Warrior]

Potential U.S. and UK strikes on Houthi rebels need to consider broader context of the conflict.

The Yemeni conflict involves complex dynamics, with wide ranging regional & international actors having interests in the outcome. The goals of these strikes would likely be multifaceted:
1.) Efforts to protect civilian populations to prevent further destabilization in Yemen.
2.) Support regional stability by neutralizing Yemen bases where attacks have been previously launched.
3.) Counter the influence of Houthi rebels likely with more deployment of military naval assets to the Red Sea by the US and perhaps US allies.

 

[Atomic Warrior]

Analyzing potential outcomes of a U.S. & UK military air campaign against Houthi rebels in Yemen involves various factors, including the complex nature of the conflict itself, highly fluid regional dynamics, and potential consequences. Here are some potential outcomes:

1.) Humanitarian Impact:
A military campaign could exacerbate the already dire humanitarian situation in Yemen even if extra care is taken to not harm civilian populations, leading to displacement, and damage to critical infrastructure to a already desperate situation for most in Yemen.

2.) Escalation of Conflict:
Military strikes may escalate the conflict, drawing in regional actors like Iran into a potential direct showdown in the Red Sea and increasing the complexity of the situation.

3.) International Backlash:
Such military actions would result in international condemnation, especially if there are concerns about the proportionality of force used or violations of international law. Which makes me believe the strikes will be highly limited in nature if they (US/UK) do decide to carry them out.

4.) Diplomatic and Political Ramifications:
Military actions may strain diplomatic relations and influence political dynamics, both regionally and internationally for the US who is already 'juggling' the tensions in the Middle East currently.

5.) Unintended Consequences:
Military campaigns are inherently unpredictable, and unintended consequences may arise, potentially impacting global security and stability since the Red Sea is critical for international commerce in our very interconnected globalized society which heavily depends on the Red Sea routes for quick and easy shipping.

6. Houthi Response and Insurgency:
The Houthi rebels may respond with increased insurgency tactics in the Red Sea, making it challenging to achieve a decisive military goal in stopping the attacks in the Red Sea.


---
If anyone else wants to further add or pick appart my anylisis please do so, I eagerly await any responses.

 

[Todjaeger]

I asked for sources because in Libya they often use the term slavery as an alternative to the more precise term of "subsidized immigration", probably the term doesn't even exist in English. It used to refer to Italian emigrants that had their voyaged financed by the haciendas in Brazil in exchange of their work. We had to outlaw the practice because the results were inhumane. Probably more similar to Chinese Coolies than to African slavery.

OT but wanted to clarify something, particularly for non-native English speakers. In the English language there are the terms 'indentured service' and/or 'indentured servitude' which mean something distinctly different from slavery. It involved a contract (the 'indenture') between parties where one party will work for/under another party for a specific length of time, most often several years or more, and generally do so without pay though there are usually provisions where the indentured party will be provided with food, shelter and periodically clothing and similar goods. Practices like this went on for centuries. since indentured service was fairly common for youths seeking to learn a trade or craft. Later periods of European migration to other continents, it was also used as a way to fund passage to new lands. It had also been used in cases as a punitive measure.

However, it has AFAIK always been distinctly different from slavery, though there have been some fairly recent attempts to conflate the two.

 

[Scott Elaurant]

1. Mwatana for Human Rights, a Yemeni NGO that documents atrocities in the country, told Middle East Eye that, "women are facing sexual violence and harassment by all parties on the ground." And by all parties, the NGO is referring to Houthi forces and fighters from the STC, who are accused of forcing Ethiopian women into 'sexual slavery'.

2. In 2022, the US State Department noted that “migrant workers, especially women and children from the Horn of Africa who remained or arrived in Yemen, may have endured intensified violence.” Therefore, on the basis of links provided in points 1 & 2, it is accurate to say that the Houthis “use slavery to motivate its leadership team”.


3. @Meriv90, it is also concurrently correct for you to point this out, but there are two further points to note:

​

One, while there is some concern about reliability of the Saudi News source cited, your reasoning process for doubt of a Saudi news source might not be a strong challenge to the report. Especially given that there is some collateral collaboration on the horrid local conditions by other sources.​

​

Two, according a Saudi news source (which you doubt) & also by a film crew from Al Jazeera that investigated, they found that slavery not only existed but was growing in Yemen. According to Al Jazeera, when a Yemeni judge approved the transfer of a slave from one owner to another, it triggered a campaign by a local journalist, human rights activists, and the wider press. With the help of these campaigners and using hidden cameras, the makers of this Al Jazeera film investigate political figures allegedly involved in modern slavery.​

4. Your point is well noted and you are welcome to provide more sources for consideration.

Further to this there are multiple agencies that have reported the use of slaves by the Houthis, especially the Houthi leadership. The UN and US State Dept have both confirmed it. It was reported in the Guardian, which is hardly pro-Saudi or pro-Israel.

Exclusive - Houthis Restore Slavery in Yemen

Modern slavery is prevalent in Yemeni regions under the control of the Iran-backed Houthi militias, including the capital Sanaa. Sources close to the group told Asharq Al-Awsat that several civilians have been forced into slavery by prominent Houthi leaders. More than 1,800 Yemenis work as...

english.aawsat.com

'He treated me as a slave': Women face rising violence amid war in Yemen

Civil war has drastically cut support services for women already at high risk of violence while displacing others who are now vulnerable to armed groups

www.theguardian.com

Historically Yemen has a long history as a centre of the Arab slave trade. Yemen was one of the last places in the mid-east to legally end slavery, only making it illegal after the 1962 revolution. The leaders of the Houthi rebels trace their history back to the former Shia leaders of Yemen, who were pro-slavery. It is possible that some claims of Houthis being pro-slavery are propaganda by their opponents, but given Yemen remains one of the poorest and most corrupt corners of the Arab world, slavery in Yemen is at least plausible.

 

[Scott Elaurant]

Putting aside background issues in Yemen and motives of the combatants, I was wondering about the significance of the Houthi attacks in terms of naval technology and tactics.

We know from the war in Ukraine that drones and SSMS are getting cheaper. now it seems even a non-state level actor like the Houthis can afford to access significant numbers of both drones and anti-ship missiles with range >100km. The potential tactics seem obvious: send a drone swarm against a warship till it has exhausted its defensive stocks of SAMs, then fire a few SSMs to finish it off. This tactic would now be at least possible for any potential opponent in the Indo-Pacific.

Assuming this is the threat, and that no navy can afford to fire $1 million ESSMs at $1000 drones indefinitely, I assume that this suggests that from now on all RAN front line warships need a multi-layer air defence, incorporating CIWS (for drones), short range SAMs and long-range SAMs. At least some rapid fire guns with AA capability and large ammo stores would be needed to counter drone swarms. A ship not armed to that standard should not be sent into anywhere comparable to the Red Sea.

By this logic, unless there is an easy way to add CIWS to Anzacs, they do not have adequate defences for this sort of environment.

So where does this leave the RAN's shipbuilding program? Should we be moving away from specialist AA and ASW ships more towards "all rounders" that can do both AA and ASW, even if not as well? I am bothered by the fact that in future we might send an ASW ship on a mission that encounters a Houthi level drone+SSM threat it may not be able to counter.

 

[swerve]

It shouldn't need area air defence capability, though. ASW ships are already equipped for self defence against air attacks & missiles. It just means that a change in flying threats has to be recognised.

 

[Fredled]

If the Houthis have a minimal of common sens, they will avoid any further agression against international shipping carriers.

I don't think an Iranian ship in the area could make a difference. Outside their territorial waters, the Iranians stand no chance.

 

[John Fedup]

If the Houthis have a minimal of common sens, they will avoid any further agression against international shipping carriers.

I don't think an Iranian ship in the area could make a difference. Outside their territorial waters, the Iranians stand no chance.

Like Hamas, the Houthis have limited sense. The Iranians do which is why they utilize these losers.

 

[Feanor]

Like Hamas, the Houthis have limited sense. The Iranians do which is why they utilize these losers.

They certainly aren't losers. They defeated the Saudis in many engagements. What the current situation suggests to me is that they are under a lot of Iranian influence. Are they just proxies for Iran? Maybe.

 

[alexsa]

They certainly aren't losers. They defeated the Saudis in many engagements. What the current situation suggests to me is that they are under a lot of Iranian influence. Are they just proxies for Iran? Maybe.

I share your view on this given how long Yemen war has being going on. Certainly it appears possible that Iran are pulling strings for their own ends. This action in the Red Sea certainly drags international attention to the conflict between Hamas and the IDF …. And away from other conflicts.

 

[Delta204]

Putting aside background issues in Yemen and motives of the combatants, I was wondering about the significance of the Houthi attacks in terms of naval technology and tactics.

We know from the war in Ukraine that drones and SSMS are getting cheaper. now it seems even a non-state level actor like the Houthis can afford to access significant numbers of both drones and anti-ship missiles with range >100km. The potential tactics seem obvious: send a drone swarm against a warship till it has exhausted its defensive stocks of SAMs, then fire a few SSMs to finish it off. This tactic would now be at least possible for any potential opponent in the Indo-Pacific.

Assuming this is the threat, and that no navy can afford to fire $1 million ESSMs at $1000 drones indefinitely, I assume that this suggests that from now on all RAN front line warships need a multi-layer air defence, incorporating CIWS (for drones), short range SAMs and long-range SAMs. At least some rapid fire guns with AA capability and large ammo stores would be needed to counter drone swarms. A ship not armed to that standard should not be sent into anywhere comparable to the Red Sea.

By this logic, unless there is an easy way to add CIWS to Anzacs, they do not have adequate defences for this sort of environment.

So where does this leave the RAN's shipbuilding program? Should we be moving away from specialist AA and ASW ships more towards "all rounders" that can do both AA and ASW, even if not as well? I am bothered by the fact that in future we might send an ASW ship on a mission that encounters a Houthi level drone+SSM threat it may not be able to counter.

Between this situation in the Red Sea and the Ukraine / Russia war I do think there will be a shift in thinking on how to defend large naval combatants. But, I'm not certain the main issue will be defending against direct attacks from small / medium sized drones. Obviously there needs to be further capabilities against this threat including EW / advances in airburst AA rounds from 2"-5" naval guns etc., but we might see more interesting options come online in the next few years.

Direct attack isn't the only threat from drones, I would suggest the biggest threat is the ability to locate and target naval combatants, like we seen Ukraine do in the Moskva sinking; and currently being attempted by the Houthis with much less success (so far). If I was a smaller / less advanced country I would invest in as many small / medium sized UAV's / drones with passive sensors that I could reasonably acquire. During a conflict these could be sent out, perhaps one way (if they are cheap), to locate enemy combatants. Target information could then be transmitted to land based mobile launchers to quickly take a shot if within range (keep in mind Iran is developing missiles with ranges close to 1000km). In this scenario SHORAD capabilities won't necessarily help besides defending against waves of AShM, but I don't think this is an acceptable tactic for modern naval powers.

If a TB2 sized UAV can locate a large combatant using optical sensors 100+ KM away that is a very big problem. You can have all the SHORAD defenses you want but if an enemy is able to shoot wave after wave of AShM missiles you will eventually have no choice but to retreat. As a solution, we might see some VTOL UAV's carried by frigates or destroyers that can carry air launched AAM's which are queued using the host combatant sensor suite. Something like a MQ-8 but much less emphasis on endurance and more on cargo; a platform that could quickly be readied and fly out 50-100km with a datalink that can fire something like a AIM-9 at a slower moving aerial target. There is no need to use up VLS cells with ESSM / Aster / SM-X ect when a combatant can see this aerial target loitering 100+KM away with it's powerful radar; the VLS missiles should be reserved for more traditional high end threats, not against UAV's that have the kinematic performance of a Cessna. But, for now, that is the only option unless you have a carrier nearby. Maybe in the interim we will see AAM's on MH-60R but perhaps that's much easier said than done (or maybe it's already being done and I haven't seen it or read about it yet).

 

[DDG38]

Just a geographical point to raise when discussing what weapons platforms are best to deploy in this region, keep in mind that the Red Sea is very narrow, at it's widest part it's barely 400km across and at the choke point of Bab al-Mandab strait it's not even 30km wide so the engagement envelopes and timings are much smaller than larger ocean warfare doctrine.

 

[OPSSG]

1. The Egyptian Navy has 2 Mistral-class LHDs, 12 frigates, ~10 corvettes & 8 submarines but they are sitting back to let other navies secure the Red Sea.

2. The Houthis present as a maritime security threat that risks Egypt’s state budget in 2024, given the expected loss of revenue from Suez Canal transit dues this year. The vessels of the Egyptian Navy looks like expensive toys rather than a force that can be relied on to provide maritime security & secure Egypt’s national interests..

Just a geographical point to raise… at the choke point of Bab al-Mandab strait it's not even 30km wide so the engagement envelopes and timings are much smaller than larger ocean warfare doctrine.

3. Agreed & appreciate the input. The Red Sea area’s geography favours Houthi tactics used.

Like Hamas, the Houthis have limited sense.

4. I get a little nervous when we underestimate a party that has been at war for a long time.

 

[swerve]

6 modern frigates (3 FREMM, 3 modern MEKO A200EN light in service plus 1 launched December 2023), 6 antique frigates (built 1971-early 1980s).
4 modern Gowind & 3 antique corvettes.
4 mid-1980s Type 033 (improved Romeo) & 4 modern Type 209/1400

Plus an assortment of missile boats & so on. Should be able to do something useful if deployed.

4. I get a little nervous when we underestimate a party that has been at war for a long time.

Absolutely!