Red Sea and the Houthis threat

[Redlands18]

Italy sends a FREMM in the Red Sea to protect international trade - Naval News
With the growing threats to international trade being poised by the Houthis and the growing alliance being formed to counter the threat, thought it might be time to create a dedicated thread.
Italy is the latest nation to deploy a warship, the Bergamini class Frigate (FREMM-ASW) Virgino Fasan, though technically an ASW Frigate, she carries two A50 8 cell VLS for Aster 15 and 30 missiles and two Leonardo 76/62mm Super Rapido guns able to use DART guided ammunition.

 

[Redlands18]

International Coalition Builds Deterrence Capacity against Red Sea Shipping Threat - Naval News
The Red Sea operations have now been given a name "Operation Prosperity Guardian" with nearly 20 nations participating in various ways. including,
Australia
Bahrain
Canada
France
Greece
Italy
The Netherlands
Norway
The Seychelles
Spain
UK
USA.
And several others that have not been named.

 

[Atomic Warrior]

TRANSLATION:
The Houthis in Yemen announce carrying out drone attacks on the Israeli port of Eilat.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1739710624471322660

Yemen’s Houthis carry out attacks on Israel’s Eilat, cargo ship in Red Sea: Spokesman

Yemen’s Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea says the group launched an attack with missiles on a MSC United commercial ship in the Red Sea after it rejected three warning calls.

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2023/12/26/Yemen-s-Houthis-carry-out-attacks-on-Israel-s-Eilat-cargo-ship-in-Red-Sea-Spokesman

Edit:
This is new or at least the information was released today as of Dec. 26th 2023. More and more attacks on shipping is not good... just when gas prices where finally falling.

 

[Feanor]

I can't help but wonder how much of this is would be happening if western military resources weren't already stretched thin in other areas. Israel has gone into Gaza before, and the response was never this great. Then again Iran certainly is stronger now then it was in the past.

 

[Atomic Warrior]

I can't help but wonder how much of this is would be happening if western military resources weren't already stretched thin in other areas. Israel has gone into Gaza before, and the response was never this great. Then again Iran certainly is stronger now then it was in the past.

It is a concerning thought to consider the impact of Western military commitments in other parts of the world & the effects it has on the dynamics in the Middle East currently.

Balancing global security interests for the US may be difficult but I don't think it is impossible either. After all the US military was designed to fight multiple global fronts at once.

Assessing the factors influencing the current events could be telling but likly we do not have the full story. Personally do not think America has lost control of the situation. Rather holding back to prevent a wider conflict which US may not feel comfortable enough to fight a wider war at the moment.

A further analysis In the context of rebel attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, they (rebels) may perceive American military is stretched thin which is emboldening rebel groups or non-state actors to take advantage of perceived vulnerabilities, leading to these attacks clearly & as you pointed out above as well.

BUT America can only hold itself back for so long and eventually IMO have to take out attacking positions in Yemen & other areas in the region to secure global shipping routes. America has certainly placed enough assets in the region to flatten a entire nation if needed.

Edit:
Grammar & Spelling Errors.

 

[Feanor]

It is a concerning thought to consider the impact of Western military commitments in other parts of the world & the effects it has on the dynamics in the Middle East currently.

Balancing global security interests for the US may be difficult but I don't think it is impossible either. After all the US military was designed to fight multiple global fronts at once.

Assessing the factors influencing the current events could be telling but likly we do not have the full story. Personally do not think America has lost control of the situation. Rather holding back to prevent a wider conflict which US may not feel comfortable enough to fight a wider war at the moment.

A further analysis In the context of rebel attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, they (rebels) may perceive American military is stretched thin which is emboldening rebel groups or non-state actors to take advantage of perceived vulnerabilities, leading to these attacks clearly & as you pointed out above as well.

BUT America can only hold itself back for so long and eventually IMO have to take out attacking positions in Yemen & other areas in the region to secure global shipping routes. America has certainly placed enough assets in the region to flatten a entire nation if needed.

Edit:
Grammar & Spelling Errors.

I don't think the US military is stretched thin. Rather it is military resources in the collective west. In point of fact I think the US military could deliver quite a bit of hurt to the Houthis, but that would expend more resources.

 

[OPSSG]

Post 1 of 3: The agency of the Houthis & Kataib Hezbollah as proxies of Iran

1. MSC United VIII (IMO 9302619) was attacked as the ship sails from Saudi Arabia to Pakistan. The Houthis are escalating their attacks on commercial shipping in an attempt to hurt the economies of Egypt & Saudi Arabia (as the range of attack on shipping goes way beyond trying to end the war in Gaza)— MSC United VIII is sailing under the flag of Liberia.

2. There is no freedom on navigation (FoN) in the Red Sea & it’s adjacent waters, as the Houthi attacks have almost reached India’s EEZ in the case of MV Chem Pluto.

​

(a) Indian PM Modi discusses red sea situation with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince. Backs freedom of navigation. Comes days after attack on 2 India bound vessels; namely, MV Chem Pluto, & MV Sai Baba.​

​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1739586653361185231

(b) There is a limit to Indian tolerance with Iran with regards to attacks on Israeli interests in India & the Houthis attacking ships near India’s EEZ.​

​

(c) FoN is not going to be restored with just sending navies to conduct armed escorts or shooting down a few drones & missiles. An American return to the killing of IRCG commanders, like Qasem Soleimani, is another option that needs to be considered.​

3. Correctly understood, the Houthis want to be bombed by President Biden, as these idiots think that it will increase their legitimacy. The Houthis:

(a) use slavery to motivate its leadership team (according a source, they found that slavery not only existed but was growing in Yemen);​

​

(b) have an ideology that embraces death; &​

​

(c) don’t care about civilian deaths.​

4. On X’mas day, Iranian proxies in Iraq broke another escalation ceiling when they targeted the Harir airbase in Erbil with a bomb-laden drone, injuring 3 US personnel, one of whom is in a critical condition.

​

(a) The US responded on 26 Dec 2023, targeting three locations in Hilla, the capital of Babylon province. While the U.S. claims that the strikes targeted Kataib Hezbollah and affiliated groups, the base belongs to the Hashd al-Shaabi and is located near government buildings in the city. This puts the Iraqi government in an awkward position, as it has consistently condemned attacks by the factions against the US military presence in the country and took action to pursue suspected culprits.​

​

(b) The regime in Iran will escalate its violence through its Houthi and Kataib Hezbollah proxies until it pays a direct price. IMO, President Biden needs a strategy to manage the cycle of violence being exchanged with the Houthis & Kataib Hezbollah. If Sec. Austin thinks hard, I am sure his team can find a lever that can move these slave owners, before action.​

 

[OPSSG]

Post 2 of 3: The agency of the Houthis & Kataib Hezbollah as proxies of Iran

5. The naval blockade of Yemen refers to a period that started with the positioning of Saudi Arabian naval vessels from 2015 in order to influence the outcome of the Yemeni Civil War in favor of President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi’s government.

(a) Every shipping company that sails through the Red Sea must now regret the Biden decision to pressure Saudi Arabia & UAE to lift the blockade of Houthi controlled areas.​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1739279079105351980

(b) Lifting the blockade led to numerous Saudi civilian deaths from Houthi missiles & UAVs without stop. After American human rights groups spent almost a decade bashing Saudi Arabia for fighting the Houthis in Yemen, the NYT is now blaming the Saudis to failing to join a naval coalition against the Houthis.​

​

6. We would do well to remember that Yemen is not only ruled by the Houthis & they can’t win in the South, which is controlled by the UAE backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) that holds an uneasy alliance with UN recognised Yemeni Government. The Houthis are Shia while the government is mostly Sunni. STC, is socialist in their views and formed by many key people from old South Yemen.

7. Two minor points on President Biden.

First, Biden delisted the Houthis as a “foreign terrorist organization” & “specially designated global terrorists” in 2021.​

​

Second, is the consistent Biden refusal to bomb Houthi land bases. This is encouraging their attacks on shipping.​

8. The refusal by President Biden to bomb the Houthis & IRCG assets is not only going to cost American lives but also hurt commercial shipping going through the Red Sea.

9. President Biden does not understand the need for deterrence. We can’t be cleaning up after Biden, if he does not have a plan that works to mitigate the Houthi threat, over the medium to long term. Just bombing a few locations in North Yemen will not deter them from attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

I can't help but wonder how much of this is would be happening if western military resources weren't already stretched thin in other areas. Israel has gone into Gaza before, and the response was never this great. Then again Iran certainly is stronger now then it was in the past.

Think of it as less a response in the context of Gaza and more a symptom of Iran's regional policy in light of its own interests and threats:
1. Public discontent.
2. Other global conflicts = opportunities.
3. Old weaponry needs utilization or else be scrapped.
4. Setting a new reality while Arab nations are bound to inaction due to public opinion.
5. Casus belli vs Israel while it is busy elsewhere.
6. Operational and political test of its regional area denial capabilities vs global response.

All in all, if Iran can normalize occasional attacks on global shipping (say, not twice a week but once a month), that will be a huge win for Iran.

One downside for Iran in all this is that it may eventually encourage the creation and fast tracking of a UAE-Israel trade infrastructure which will largely circumvent the naval blockade and shift significant revenue from Egypt toward Israel.

 

[Ranger25]

I don't think the US military is stretched thin. Rather it is military resources in the collective west. In point of fact I think the US military could deliver quite a bit of hurt to the Houthis, but that would expend more resources.

Feanor, i concur I don‘t feel the US is stretched thin at all, just look at the navy assets in the Red Sea and Med alone. it does make me wonder why the lack of counter strikes against Houthi launch sites etc. It makes me wonder if the lack of counter strikes are part of a wider effort not to provoke further conflict with Iran, as striking the surrogate Houthis would do. It seems Iran is doing as much as they can to provoke the US into such a reaction and thus far the US has mainly remained defensive.

Question is why? Why are the Iranians now working throughout the region to provoke a wider conflict?

 

[koxinga]

Why are the Iranians now working throughout the region to provoke a wider conflict?

Given the election year in 2024, negative impression that America is getting from its support of Israel and waning political support for Ukraine, they made assumptions that Biden are reluctant to directly attack Iran or it's proxy, Yemen.

It is therefore, opportunistic, based on the assumption that America (not Iran) that does not want to provoke a wider conflict. Iranians think they can get away with a certain (low) level of violence without serious consequences.

Operation Earnest Will during the Iraq-Iran War didn't escalate and this might be the case

 

[John Fedup]

Feanor, i concur I don‘t feel the US is stretched thin at all, just look at the navy assets in the Red Sea and Med alone. it does make me wonder why the lack of counter strikes against Houthi launch sites etc. It makes me wonder if the lack of counter strikes are part of a wider effort not to provoke further contact with Iran As striking thie surrogate Houthis would do. It seems Iran is doing as much as they can to provoke the US into such a reaction and thus far the US has mainly remained defensive.

Question is why? Why are the Iranians now working throughout the region to provoke a wider conflict?

Iran may be doing Putin a favour but will be expecting something in return like new fighters and advanced missile technology. A wider ME conflict will likely mean less resources for Ukraine. Might be an incentive for Xi to move on Taiwan earlier.

 

[ngatimozart]

The US standing up of a CTF for the Red Sea is a cluster f*** at the moment. The French have gone separately because of the US dithering about it. It seems that the White House is micromanaging the USN response and not giving a political direction stating, "go protect ships" and leaving it to the CNO to detail off her forces and appropriate ships. It appears that the White House want to be onboard each of the ships dictating what individual ships COs can and cannot do. So it's turned into an inter-departmental bun fight and that's why they are having problems getting nations to join the CTF.

 

[Meriv90]

A bit of fact checking on Houtis restablishing slavery?

Because I could found only Saudi state media on the topic. Not exactly the best source considering how they treat journalists(Khashoggi).

 

[OPSSG]

A bit of fact checking on Houtis restablishing slavery?

1. Mwatana for Human Rights, a Yemeni NGO that documents atrocities in the country, told Middle East Eye that, "women are facing sexual violence and harassment by all parties on the ground." And by all parties, the NGO is referring to Houthi forces and fighters from the STC, who are accused of forcing Ethiopian women into 'sexual slavery'.

2. In 2022, the US State Department noted that “migrant workers, especially women and children from the Horn of Africa who remained or arrived in Yemen, may have endured intensified violence.” Therefore, on the basis of links provided in points 1 & 2, it is accurate to say that the Houthis “use slavery to motivate its leadership team”.

Because I could found only Saudi state media on the topic. Not exactly the best source considering how they treat journalists(Khashoggi).

3. @Meriv90, it is also concurrently correct for you to point this out, but there are two further points to note:

​

One, while there is some concern about reliability of the Saudi News source cited, your reasoning process for doubt of a Saudi news source might not be a strong challenge to the report. Especially given that there is some collateral collaboration on the horrid local conditions by other sources.​

​

Two, according a Saudi news source (which you doubt) & also by a film crew from Al Jazeera that investigated, they found that slavery not only existed but was growing in Yemen. According to Al Jazeera, when a Yemeni judge approved the transfer of a slave from one owner to another, it triggered a campaign by a local journalist, human rights activists, and the wider press. With the help of these campaigners and using hidden cameras, the makers of this Al Jazeera film investigate political figures allegedly involved in modern slavery.​

4. Your point is well noted and you are welcome to provide more sources for consideration.

 

[Atomic Warrior]

Feanor, i concur I don‘t feel the US is stretched thin at all, just look at the navy assets in the Red Sea and Med alone. it does make me wonder why the lack of counter strikes against Houthi launch sites etc. It makes me wonder if the lack of counter strikes are part of a wider effort not to provoke further conflict with Iran, as striking the surrogate Houthis would do. It seems Iran is doing as much as they can to provoke the US into such a reaction and thus far the US has mainly remained defensive.

Question is why? Why are the Iranians now working throughout the region to provoke a wider conflict?

The cautious approach in refraining from counter strikes on Houthi launch sites are likely rooted in a broader strategy to avoid escalating tensions and conflict with Iran or drag US into a third conflict drawing out potentially already stretched thin resources for the US... The dynamics of the region are complex, and a measured response could be aimed at preventing further destabilization.

Iran's motivations might be influenced by geopolitical objectives in Gaza, regional influence to pressure Israel, the Saudis, and US, a desire to reshape the balance of power, or create a defacto blockade in the region for numerous reason's.

Understanding the specific reasons behind Iran's efforts to provoke or expand the conflict is difficult as Iran hides behind its proxies and doesn't necessarily announce to the world their exact plans or motives.

 

[Atomic Warrior]

(NEW)

Iranian-backed Houthi small boats attack merchant vessel and U.S. Navy helicopters in Southern Red Sea

On Dec. 31 at 6:30am (Sanaa time) the container ship MAERSK HANGZHOU issued a second distress call in less than 24 hours reporting being under attack by four Iranian-backed Houthi small boats. The small boats, originating from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen, fired crew served and small arms weapons at the MAERSK HANGZHOU, getting to within 20 meters of the vessel, and attempted to board the vessel. A contract embarked security team on the MAERSK HANZGHOU returned fire. U.S. helicopters from the USS EISENHOWER (CVN 69) and GRAVELY (DDG 107) responded to the distress call and in the process of issuing verbal calls to the small boats, the small boats fired upon the U.S. helicopters with crew served weapons and small arms. The U.S. Navy helicopters returned fire in self-defense, sinking three of the four small boats, and killing the crews. The fourth boat fled the area. There was no damage to U.S. personnel or equipment.

https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1741381969936834951?s=20

 

[Atomic Warrior]

(NEW)
US army attacks three Houthi boats in Red Sea, killing at least 10 fighters:

Yemen’s Houthi rebels say they have lost at least 10 fighters after three of their vessels were attacked by US forces in the Red Sea.

In a statement on Sunday, the Houthi group said the boats were performing tasks aimed at “establishing security and stability and protecting maritime navigation”.

US army attacks three Houthi boats in Red Sea, killing at least 10 fighters

Global shipping giant Maersk suspends operations in the Red Sea for 48 hours after the attack.

www.aljazeera.com

Yemen's Houthis attack American warship in Red Sea - report

Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked an American warship in the Red Sea, Israeli media reported.

The two groups engaged in an intense exchange of fire on the scene.

Yemen's Houthis attack American warship in Red Sea - report

Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked an American warship in the Red Sea, Israeli media reported.The two groups enga

m.jpost.com

 

[Atomic Warrior]

(NEW & UNCONFIRMED)

UK preparing for attacks on Houthi rebels with US.

-TheTime.Uk.Co

https://x.com/Natsecjeff/status/1741505342411035080?s=20

The frigate IRIS Alborz of the Iranian Navy entered the Red Sea as part of a flotilla of ships.

Iranian ships are deployed to the coast of Yemen.

Amid reports of the US and UK's readiness to begin military operations against the Houthis, the appearance of Iranian ships could be a harbinger of a serious escalation in the region.

https://x.com/theinformantofc/status/1741567023992180840?s=20

Looking for further verification. I'd classify this particular info as RUMINT until further reputable sources can be found.

 

[Atomic Warrior]

(NEW & UNCONFIRMED)

https://x.com/Natsecjeff/status/1741505342411035080?s=20

https://x.com/theinformantofc/status/1741567023992180840?s=20

Looking for further verification. I'd classify this particular info as RUMINT until further reputable sources can be found.

After U.S. Navy Helicopters Sink Houthi Boats Are Strikes Next?

Report claims the U.S. and the U.K. are planning to strike back against Houthi forces.

After U.S. Navy Helicopters Sink Houthi Boats Are Strikes Next?

Navy MH-60 Sea Hawks sink Houthi boats after being fired upon as anti-ship ballistic missiles fly across the Red Sea.

www.thedrive.com

Can't find where who or what all these sources are quoting about a potential military air campaign against the Houthis from US & UK. Granted not home and on my phone so my research is limited atm. Will provide a anylisis of potential US & UK strikes soon.