Venezuela Update

[ngatimozart]

Background on the Venezuelan Guyana conflict.

H I Sutton profile of the Venezuelan Navy.

I am of the opinion that Maduro is trying the time honoured pollie tactic of distracting the population by fermenting a foreign conflict.

Guyana has close relations with Brazil, and it appears that the Brazilians have beefed up their border security along the Brazilian - Venezuelan border. I think that if the Venezuelans push the issue, Brazil may give them a bloody nose.

Brazil urging Venezuela to avoid force or threats against Guyana, says Lula aide | Reuters

 

[John Fedup]

Background on the Venezuelan Guyana conflict.

H I Sutton profile of the Venezuelan Navy.

I am of the opinion that Maduro is trying the time honoured pollie tactic of distracting the population by fermenting a foreign conflict.

Guyana has close relations with Brazil, and it appears that the Brazilians have beefed up their border security along the Brazilian - Venezuelan border. I think that if the Venezuelans push the issue, Brazil may give them a bloody nose.

Brazil urging Venezuela to avoid force or threats against Guyana, says Lula aide | Reuters

Brazil is the best country to sort Venezuela, local and capable.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Background on the Venezuelan Guyana conflict.

H I Sutton profile of the Venezuelan Navy.

I am of the opinion that Maduro is trying the time honoured pollie tactic of distracting the population by fermenting a foreign conflict.

Guyana has close relations with Brazil, and it appears that the Brazilians have beefed up their border security along the Brazilian - Venezuelan border. I think that if the Venezuelans push the issue, Brazil may give them a bloody nose.

Brazil urging Venezuela to avoid force or threats against Guyana, says Lula aide | Reuters

Thank you for sharing.
Guyana doesn't have a navy at all, on the other hand Venezuela's navy is in a very bad shape. Like their economy.

I have my doubt that Madurodam will start a real war, even if the opponent is a very weak one. Or he will cancel the war and tell his people that he had a good conversation with theGuyanese president, or he will discuss with the presidents of Guyana and some neighbour countries about having a fake war with Guyana in order to "increase patriotic feelings" of the people of his country.

 

[hauritz]

The west should stay out of this. Brazil should step up and just say no.

With the advent of the a multipolar world Brazil is now in a position to greatly increase its presence on the world stage and in the South American region in particular. This could be one of its first tests.

 

[Ananda]

Can Brazil Stop Venezuela from Invading Guyana? | by Thiago de Aragão - Project Syndicate

Thiago de Aragão urges Latin America’s largest country to take the lead on de-escalating regional tensions.

www.project-syndicate.org

This commentary article shown how Brazil's Lula administration should and so far begin to increase their clout as Regional Leader. This is actually already done historically with mostly Argentina try to become the 'other's regional leader. However with Argentina increasingly problematic domestic and economics vicious cycle, Brazil should take more leadership responsibility.

As for potential armed invasion, I still see at most some border skirmish. Not invasion as simply Maduro just like his predecessor Chavez continues put Venezuela on down cycle of economic disaster. They're simply too broke to do full invasion.

 

[tonnyc]

@hauritz I also hope that Brazil will step up and use their position as de facto regional leader and tell Venezuela not to do anything to disturb the peace. While I do not believe that Venezuela is capable of successfully invading Guyana, they can still kill a lot of people in a rash attempt to do so. Thus it would be better if they are strongly discouraged from attempting it. And well, Brazil, by a combination of military strength, geographical location, regional reputation, and other factors, is in the best possible position to do that.

 

[Fredled]

I think that the importance of Brazil has been grossly overrated with the war in Ukraine because everybody was desperate to find leaders able to bring Zelensky and Putin to the negotiation table. And Lula came at the right time at the right moment. Before 2022, it was unthinkable that Brazil could play a major role in international conflicts.
The same with Milley. Everybody came to his inauguration (including Zelensky) because it was seen as venue on a neutral territory, but, as the president of Argentina he is a nobody.
Brazil might be a big country, if Lula is not able to influence Venezuela, he will lose the skin deep influence he has gained elsewhere. I have never seen Brazil offering something significant in term of fund or military aid to anyone.

Venezuela could make an operation to take over some oil filed in Guyana, but it will turn out like Saddam's invasion of Kuwait. It won't survive two weeks after the first intervention by the US.
You don't steal oil field that easily. Coming up with a XIX-th Century map is not enough.

 

[malleboy]

Guyana is a Commonwealth member, for what it is worth, maybe the leading Commonwealth member in that region could show regional support for a follow Commonwealth member. Australia (and NZ) has consistently engaged in support of Commonwealth countries in our region, through RAMSI, Kronfrontasi, Malay Emergency, and maintaining the FPDA. Pardon my lack of knowledge of that region but I'm not aware of Canada's support to smaller Commonwealth states?

 

[Todjaeger]

Guyana is a Commonwealth member, for what it is worth, maybe the leading Commonwealth member in that region could show regional support for a follow Commonwealth member. Australia (and NZ) has consistently engaged in support of Commonwealth countries in our region, through RAMSI, Kronfrontasi, Malay Emergency, and maintaining the FPDA. Pardon my lack of knowledge of that region but I'm not aware of Canada's support to smaller Commonwealth states?

Might be my POV, but I would not really consider Canada and Guyana to be in the same region, since Canada is in the northern part of the continent of North America, whilst Guyana is in the northern part of the continent of South America. To provide some context for the distance, the distance between Halifax in Nova Scotia (site of one of the main RCN bases) and the capital of Guyana in Georgetown is ~4,200 km, or almost the same distance as between Darwin in NT and Hong Kong in mainland China. With distances like this, one is talking about intercontinental expeditionary deployment and TBH there are not very many nations which can carry out such ops, and fewer still which can sustain them.

 

[John Fedup]

With distances like this, one is talking about intercontinental expeditionary deployment and TBH there are not very many nations which can carry out such ops, and fewer still which can sustain them.

Given Canada's limited ability fulfilling its Latvia commitment (where this deployment has quick access to neighbouring allies), any chance of supporting Guyana is pretty much zero.

 

[swerve]

Might be my POV, but I would not really consider Canada and Guyana to be in the same region, since Canada is in the northern part of the continent of North America, whilst Guyana is in the northern part of the continent of South America. To provide some context for the distance, the distance between Halifax in Nova Scotia (site of one of the main RCN bases) and the capital of Guyana in Georgetown is ~4,200 km, or almost the same distance as between Darwin in NT and Hong Kong in mainland China. With distances like this, one is talking about intercontinental expeditionary deployment and TBH there are not very many nations which can carry out such ops, and fewer still which can sustain them.

It's 1700 km from Puerto Rico, & 677 km from Cayenne to Georgetown.

I doubt anyone's suggesting Canada might intervene in Guyana alone, directly from Canada.

 

[John Fedup]

It's 1700 km from Puerto Rico, & 677 km from Cayenne to Georgetown.

I doubt anyone's suggesting Canada might intervene in Guyana alone, directly from Canada.

There might be one person if he thought it would improve his poll numbers.

 

[malleboy]

Might be my POV, but I would not really consider Canada and Guyana to be in the same region, since Canada is in the northern part of the continent of North America, whilst Guyana is in the northern part of the continent of South America. To provide some context for the distance, the distance between Halifax in Nova Scotia (site of one of the main RCN bases) and the capital of Guyana in Georgetown is ~4,200 km, or almost the same distance as between Darwin in NT and Hong Kong in mainland China. With distances like this, one is talking about intercontinental expeditionary deployment and TBH there are not very many nations which can carry out such ops, and fewer still which can sustain them.

I do not doubt that Ottawa would likely view Guyana as outside its region, and be very unlikely to offer assistance.
However Venezuela is unlikely to be in the situation to fund a full scale invasion, something closer to the Konfrontasi, where they make use of small scale forces in an attempt to destabilize the Guyanese region.

As for distances:
Ottawa to Georgetown 4,612
Canberra to Kuala Lumpur 6,522km
Auckland to Kuala Lumpur 8,721km
Darwin to Kuala Lumpur 3,656km

Of course the Malay peninsula is far more strategically important to Australia and NZ, then Guyana is to Canada.
However there are Commonwealth countries in the Caribbean, far closer so you don't really need long distance expeditionary force projection and you'd currently be landing in a friendly country anyway.
How long did NZ maintain troops in Malaysia? Or Australia maintain planes?
Like the FPDAs, you don't always have to hard commit to the use of force, sometimes all deterrence takes is some strategic ambiguity and the occasional willingness to signal that ambiguity may mean more.

Anyway I'd agree it is a moot point, as I'd agree Canada is extremely unlikely to do anything.

 

[Ananda]

Just to add, Malayan Konfrontasi is part of cold war. Indonesia under Sukarno more and more going to be in Leftist Revolutionary camp. Something that opposite Western Camp.

Thus why UK, Aussie and NZ willing to commit good resources in Konfrontasi. Despite some talk Sukarno want to annex Sabah and Sarawak, the actuality was not that. Sukarno wants Leftist Sabah and Sarawak own force that take control of territory, and not what he believes Malayan British puppet in KL.

The stake for UK was for Leftist government taking over their previous colonies. Something that totally different on present Venezuela-Guyana situation. But I do agree as I mention in my previous post, if Maduro want to escalate militarily, the most they can do is border skirmish. Something in nature like Konfrontasi.

 

[Todjaeger]

I do not doubt that Ottawa would likely view Guyana as outside its region, and be very unlikely to offer assistance.
However Venezuela is unlikely to be in the situation to fund a full scale invasion, something closer to the Konfrontasi, where they make use of small scale forces in an attempt to destabilize the Guyanese region.

As for distances:
Ottawa to Georgetown 4,612
Canberra to Kuala Lumpur 6,522km
Auckland to Kuala Lumpur 8,721km
Darwin to Kuala Lumpur 3,656km

Of course the Malay peninsula is far more strategically important to Australia and NZ, then Guyana is to Canada.
However there are Commonwealth countries in the Caribbean, far closer so you don't really need long distance expeditionary force projection and you'd currently be landing in a friendly country anyway.
How long did NZ maintain troops in Malaysia? Or Australia maintain planes?
Like the FPDAs, you don't always have to hard commit to the use of force, sometimes all deterrence takes is some strategic ambiguity and the occasional willingness to signal that ambiguity may mean more.

Anyway I'd agree it is a moot point, as I'd agree Canada is extremely unlikely to do anything.

The distances from capital to capital is not particularly relevant IMO. The distances between major bases would be far more important and relevant, hence my measurement from Halifax. In the case of Australia, Darwin is ~1,000 km closer to Kuala Lumpur and even more relevant would be RAAF Butterworth, which AFAIK Canada having no equivalent facility anywhere remotely close to either the Caribbean or South America. More importantly, there is no treaty or agreement between Canada and Guyana like exists with the FPDA and one should not underestimate the significance of this. With the FPDA, generations of Australians and Kiwis have cooperated with and in Malaysia and Singapore and before that during WWII. This means that at a gov't to gov't level there is a degree of cooperation and existing working relationships, as well as experience and understanding. AFAIK Canada and Guyana have no equivalent and I believe historically Guyana, as well as former British West Indies colonies mainly looked towards London for support and aide. In fact, I recall that the RN deployed a vessel to the Caribbean in the aftermath of Hurricane Ivan in 2004 but I do not recall Canada having a similar type deployment. This suggests that whilst there are a number of Commonwealth member-states in the region, there does not appear to be any habit of providing support of hosting forces from other member-states.

Relating to this, AFAIK there are not really any significant military or naval bases in South America or the Caribbean which could support a Canadian deployment or even serve as a forward base, apart from US bases in Cuba or Puerto Rico. Realistically, any deployment to or operations from a US base could almost certainly be both initiated and sustained by US forces than Canadian ones. This particularly true given the environments of Canada and Guyana with the later having a tropical climate whilst the former has temperate to arctic climates.

Going forward, I do think it might be wise if some of the Commonwealth member-states got together and raised the notion of establishing some sort of framework for mutual aide and defence, however it might well be that a number of the member-states would be hesitant given the colonial histories.

 

[OldTex]

The UK currently has a destroyer, and possibly an OPV , operating in the Caribbean on regional support (anti-narcotics and disaster relief). It might be appropriate for the UK to extend defence co-operation and development to Guyana (and the other Commonwealth countries in the region) by establishing training teams, from the Army units established for this purpose, and facilities in Guyana.

 

[swerve]

...
However there are Commonwealth countries in the Caribbean, far closer so you don't really need long distance expeditionary force projection and you'd currently be landing in a friendly country anyway.
...

Anyway I'd agree it is a moot point, as I'd agree Canada is extremely unlikely to do anything.

Not just Commonwealth countries. There are territories which are parts of or linked to the USA, France & the Netherlands, & the French & Dutch have very good reasons to back Guyana. Venezuela has claims against Dutch & Dutch-linked territories & perhaps French. As well as land boundaries, it has some excessive claims for internal & territorial waters & jurisdiction over airspace. It even claims some of Suriname's waters as Venezuelan territorial waters.

https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3007&context=ils
Venezuela makes new claim to Guyana’s territorial waters, potential oil block - Stabroek News

This document about Venezuela's maritime boundaries & claims is from 1984 -
https://core.ac.uk/download/56689343.pdf

The USA's been showing that it doesn't agree with Venezuelan maritime claims -
USS Pinckney freedom-of-navigation operation challenges Venezuela’s excessive maritime cla

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

HMS Trent left Gibraltar begin December for a routine anti-drugs tour in the Caribbean. But now plans have changed, HMS Trent is now in Barbados and the patrolboat will steam towards Guyana after Christmas.

Brits patrouilleschip naar Guyana om opgelopen spanningen met Venezuela

Venezuela en Guyana zijn verwikkeld in een grensconflict om de olierijke regio Essequibo.

nos.nl

Spanningen Venezuela: Brits patrouilleschip naar Guyana

HMS Trent gaat oefenen met schepen van Guyana

marineschepen.nl

 

[Fredled]

HMS Trent left Gibraltar begin December for a routine anti-drugs tour in the Caribbean. But now plans have changed, HMS Trent is now in Barbados and the patrolboat will steam towards Guyana after Christmas.

Brits patrouilleschip naar Guyana om opgelopen spanningen met Venezuela

Venezuela en Guyana zijn verwikkeld in een grensconflict om de olierijke regio Essequibo.

nos.nl

Spanningen Venezuela: Brits patrouilleschip naar Guyana

HMS Trent gaat oefenen met schepen van Guyana

marineschepen.nl

It shows that finally somebody reacts. But we should be more assertive IMO.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

HMS Trent left Gibraltar begin December for a routine anti-drugs tour in the Caribbean. But now plans have changed, HMS Trent is now in Barbados and the patrolboat will steam towards Guyana after Christmas.

Brits patrouilleschip naar Guyana om opgelopen spanningen met Venezuela

Venezuela en Guyana zijn verwikkeld in een grensconflict om de olierijke regio Essequibo.

nos.nl

Spanningen Venezuela: Brits patrouilleschip naar Guyana

HMS Trent gaat oefenen met schepen van Guyana

marineschepen.nl

|"Volgens Maduro is de aanwezigheid van het Britse schip een "dreiging (...) tegen vrede en soevereiniteit" van Venezuela."|
The presence of the HMS Trent in the waters of Guyana is according to Maduro a threat against the peace and sovereignty of Venezuela. And because of this, Venezuela will also start a naval exercise in the Caribbean Sea.

Venezuela reageert met oefening op 'dreiging' Brits marineschip

5.600 militairen, bijna tien schepen en zo'n twintig vliegtuigen.

marineschepen.nl